Mr. President, I rise to introduce a bill which is sponsored by myself and 20 other Members of the Senate. The purpose of this bill is to put some control over spending--or at least put procedures…
Mr. President, I rise to introduce a bill which is sponsored by myself and 20 other Members of the Senate.
The purpose of this bill is to put some control over spending--or at least put procedures in--to allow us as a Congress to begin to control spending.
I think we all recognize that in the short run we are headed toward a budget that looks like it may actually move toward balance. We have seen some very significant, positive gains. A deficit that was supposed to be about $425 billion this year is down to about $300 billion, and it may well go below that. That does not solve our problem even though we have gotten things moving the right way because in the outyears we face a fiscal crisis. That is reflected in this chart.
The fact is, there is facing this country a situation where we have a generation known as the baby boom generation which is such a large generation that it has basically overwhelmed the systems of America at each point in its evolution. It started out in the early 1950s and late 1940s. It overwhelmed the school systems it was so big. As it moved forward in the 1960s, it created the civil rights movement, and in the 1980s and 1990s it created the greatest prosperity in the history of our country as a result of its size and productivity.
But now that generation is beginning to retire. It will start to retire in the year 2008. It will be fully retired by the year 2020. It will be the largest retired generation in the history of our Nation by a factor of two. There will essentially be 70 million people retiring during that period.
What are the implications? The implications are rather severe for our Nation's fiscal policy, and especially for our children. All of our retirement systems in this Nation--Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid--all our major safety nets were built around the concept created by FDR, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, that there would always be many more people working than retiring.
In fact, in the early 1950s there were about 12 people working and paying into the Social Security system for every one person taking it out of Social Security. Today there are about three and a half people working for every one person who is retired. By the years 2020 to 2025, there will only be two people working for every one person taking out of the system. That means this pyramid concept goes to a rectangle, and our children and our grandchildren who will then be the working people in America will not be able to support the benefit structure which is in place for the retired.
This chart reflects the dramatic effect of this situation rather starkly. The blue line represents what percent of gross national product the Federal Government usually spends. Historically, since World War II, the Federal Government has spent about 20 percent of the gross national product. The red line represents three programs in the Federal process: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. The red line grows dramatically beginning in about the year 2008 and proceeds at an exponential rate of growth, so that by the years 2025 to 2028 those three programs alone will actually cost more than 20 percent of the gross national product of America.
What does that mean? It means if we were to spend the historic amount we have spent on the Federal Government, those three programs would use up all that money and there would be no money available for education, for national defense, for laying out roads, for health care for everyone else, other than those who are retired, or for anything else the Federal Government is supposed to do. Everything would have to be spent on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. It does not stop there. It continues up at a rather dramatic movement.
The point, of course, is that our children will have to pay the cost. They will find themselves confronted with a dramatic increase in tax burden unless we address the cost of those programs from the spending side.
The point, also, is we really cannot tax our way out of this problem. We cannot possibly raise taxes high enough to keep up with the cost of these programs and still have a viable country. If we did that, we would eliminate the ability of our children to buy a new home, to send their kids to college, to even buy cars. The lifestyle of an American, our children and our grandchildren, would be dramatically reduced-- their quality of life--were we to raise taxes to try to keep up with this rate of growth of spending.
Again, it is not a revenue problem; it is a spending problem. That is important to stress. In fact, if you look at the revenues over the last few years, this reinforces this point. Revenues dropped precipitously at the beginning of this President's term for two reasons. One, we had the largest bubble in the history of the world, the Internet bubble, back in the late 1990s, where we were essentially producing false income, paper returns through the issuance of stock which wasn't backed up by productive companies. This bubble burst, and it was the biggest bubble in history, bigger than the tulip or south seas bubble. And the effect of it was to cause our economy to retrench.
Then we had the attack of September 11, which dramatically impacted our psyche as a nation. Obviously, it had a horrific effect in the area of loss of lives, but it had a dramatic effect on our economy. Those two back-to-back events basically forced a significant drop in revenues.
So President Bush came in and said: Let's try to get out of this recession--and it was a shallow recession but would have headed a lot deeper--by cutting taxes and giving people an incentive to be more productive. We have heard a lot from the other side about how it is terrible we cut taxes at the beginning of this administration. But what those tax cuts did was create an atmosphere where people who wanted to be entrepreneurial, who wanted to go out and take risks, who were willing to put their own personal efforts and their dollars behind an effort to be productive, and, thus, create jobs, did exactly that.
Then the economy started to recover. We had 39 straight months of recovery. We had one of the largest expansions of the post-World-War II period. The practical effect of that is that we have created more economic activity, created
more jobs, and created more revenue to the Federal Government. So in the last 2 years, the revenue to the Federal Government has actually jumped greater in a 2-year period than at any time in the post-World- War II period. Each of the last 2 years has had historic increases of revenues for the Federal Government.
We are at a point where revenues are essentially at the same place they would be over history as a percent of gross national product. We are essentially generating about the same amount of revenue we have always generated to the Federal Government.
The other side of the aisle says: Let's raise taxes some more. That is not going to help because we are already generating as much revenue as we usually generate. We are doing it the right way, with a fair tax system, telling entrepreneurs to make jobs and create risks. We have created jobs and given revenues to the Federal Government.
The real issue is, you have to be willing to address spending, which is what the chart shows. A group on our side of the aisle said: How do you do this? Probably the way to do it is to put in place a series of processes in the Senate and in the House, which basically forced the Congress to address the public policy issues of reducing the rate of growth and spending for the Federal Government. This is very difficult for an elected body. We know it is a natural tendency of an elected body to spend more money because people come to you and say: We need this for that. Usually the stories are compelling and the purposes are good.
The simple fact is, we cannot afford to spend all the money that people want to spend, and we need to have some mechanisms around here which energize an atmosphere of producing fiscal responsibility, delivering government that is efficient, delivering government that is effective, delivering government that people get what they expect, and, also, get their dollars used efficiently and effectively to produce a government that works.
So we are suggesting a program that basically renews, redesigns; it reforms, it rebuilds the Federal system relative to how we are going to spend money and makes sure we spend it effectively so we give people an affordable government, something that delivers the type of services they need but does it in a way that can be afforded. That is our goal. Our goal, essentially, is to contain spending so that we are able to deliver quality government and still pass on to our children a government that is affordable, a tax burden they can afford that won't overwhelm them and will give them the opportunity to have as good a life as we have had.
The proposal we have come up with has a variety of different elements to accomplish this. First, we follow the ideas put forward by the President, which has eight basic elements. It is a very extensive reform package, renewal package, redesign package, rebuilding package.
The first element is what I call fast-track rescission. I suppose that is too technical. The President calls it the line-item veto. But it says the President has the opportunity to look at bills we have passed in the Senate and say: Listen, we do not need to spend money on that item. That is really an item of earmark, or maybe you might call it pork, or it is just simply not what we need. It is not what the American people have to have their dollars spent on. He gets to put together a package of items, and he sends them to us. He says: These are the items I don't think we need. We think the American people don't need them. We don't think the Government can afford them, and you, the Congress, can take another look at them and vote them up or down. Fast- track rescission. We have to take the vote. It is an opportunity for the executive branch to have a say and for the legislative branch to take a second look. We have done it in a way so neither branch is prejudiced as to our constitutional role which is very important.
The second thing we have done is we have reinstated statutory caps. What is that? It means that we say every year how much the Federal Government is going to spend and we lock it down so that if we spend over that amount we have to go back and cut somewhere else to bring us down to that number.
What has happened around here, we have said we are going to spend X dollars. That is called a cap. But we have not had any enforcement mechanism behind the cap. Those lapsed in 2002. So when we exceed the cap, you get 60 votes and people say: Fine, we will spend the money anyway, even though we said we were not going to spend that much money, and it is ignored. This puts in place a system where we have to be responsible to the number we set out as to what the Federal Government should spend. It is basically truth in budgeting and forces budgeting to be effective and responsive.
The third item we put in, we reduce the deficit so it will move to zero by 2012. This is done by saying essentially this: The deficit today is X percent of gross national product. We are going to say that the deficit should be dropped as a percent of gross national product every year until we get to about 2012 where we expect it to be basically no deficit. If we exceed those numbers--in other words, if the deficit exceeds that percent of gross national product which we set out in the bill--and these numbers are historical numbers and they are obtainable numbers.
In fact, in the first 2 years, the numbers we have set out are basically above where the actual deficit looks like it will hit, and it is about the third and fourth year we may have some issues to keep the deficit moving down--but if the deficit is not moving down, we put in place a process called reconciliation, directed at entitlement spending.
The problem we have as a Federal Government isn't the discretionary side of the ledger. That is spending that occurs every year. Every year you have to spend X dollars on defense, X dollars on education, and you can make a choice regarding how much you will spend here, how much you spend there. Nondefense spending in those accounts has been flat for the last few years, essentially flat if you factor in inflation. The real growth of the Federal Government has been in these accounts that are entitlement accounts, mandatory accounts which I had on the first chart, three of the major ones. They represent, along with the Federal debt, about 60 percent of Federal spending.
What this bill says is that essentially you have to go back and take a look at those accounts if we are not meeting our deficit targets and bring them into line so we will meet those deficit targets.
Now, in order to help accomplish this, this proposal also includes an entitlement commission. There have been a lot of commissions around here and everyone is a little tired of commissions. This commission is different. This commission says take a look at the entitlement accounts of the Federal Government, report back to the Congress, and Congress must act on your proposal. We actually put in place a policy procedure to try to correct the entitlement issue. Then we put in place a budgeting procedure which allows us to legislate changes if the entitlement improvements are not accomplishing our goals.
The purpose is to make these entitlement programs affordable for our children while they still maintain a quality lifestyle for those who are retired. That can be and should be able to be accomplished. But it takes a Congress being willing to step up to the plate and doing it. So far, we have not been willing to do that. We have been burying our head in the sand on that issue.
Another element in this proposal is a BRAC commission, a proposal from Senator Brownback, which essentially looks at the whole Government, independent of the Defense Department, which was looked at under its own BRAC commission. And if you recall, it looked at the entire Defense Department and decided what the Defense Department needed and didn't need and set up a package and we voted on it as a package.
This is a ``BRAC Commission'' for the Government with very strong, thoughtful people being appointed to the Commission, the same way the BRAC Commission was set up relative to the Defense Department. We will be able to take a look at functions of the Government which maybe should be eliminated or reduced or significantly changed.
It is a good proposal. It is also a proposal that includes biennial budgeting--an idea that is strongly supported by the Senator from Alabama, Mr. Sessions, who is managing the bill on the floor right now, and the Senator
from New Mexico--so we can have a budget process where we are not always looking at the budget every year and everybody spinning their wheels around the budget but, rather, having a year where we develop a budget and a year where we do a lot more oversight. That is the theory behind that, so we can become more efficient.
Finally, it has reforms to what is known as the reconciliation process. The reconciliation process is the teeth under which we accomplish savings in the budget process. But it can also, unfortunately, be used for expanding spending if it is not handled properly. So these reforms make it clear that reconciliation is primarily for the purposes of controlling spending, not of expanding spending.
So the goal is simple. The goal is to put in place a package which will allow us as a Congress to step up and address the issue of overspending. That is why we call it SOS, ``stop overspending.'' The purpose of that goal is to be able to pass on to our children a government that is affordable, that continues to deliver the services people expect, continues to give high-quality services but does it in an affordable way so our children's quality of life is not overwhelmed by the burden of a government that is trying to support a retired generation that is huge.
Again, I must stress, that you cannot do this on the tax side. You cannot solve the issues of the deficit, you cannot solve the issues of entitlement concerns on the tax side. There is simply too much programmatic commitment in the pipeline to accomplish that.
Let me give you a couple numbers to highlight that fact. The General Accounting Office--the comptroller of the Government--has told us there is presently pending relative to entitlement responsibility for retired people an obligation which we don't know how we are going to pay for-- that is called an unfunded liability--of $46 trillion; and that is ``trillion'' with a ``T.'' So that is $46 trillion of responsibility that we have put on the books in costs that we don't really know how we are going to pay for.
I don't know what $1 trillion is. It is very hard to comprehend $1 trillion. But just to put it in some sort of context, since the beginning of this country, since our Revolution, we have paid something like $43 trillion in taxes. So all the taxes paid since this country started would not pay for the bills we have on the books for our upcoming retired generation. Or to put it in another context, if you took all the assets owned in America today--all the cars, all the homes, all the stock, all the small businesses, all the big businesses--and totaled them up, their total is about $47 trillion in net value. So we have on the books a liability that is essentially the same as the net worth of our Nation. That is a serious problem, and you cannot deal with that problem by simply raising taxes.
The other side of the aisle has not put forward any substantive ideas in this area relative to spending. They have suggested a proposal called pay-go, which is a stalking-horse for tax increases. Fine. That is their position: We should raise taxes to address all problems. But we know from the numbers that are now coming in at the Treasury that we are already taxing Americans at a level which is at our historic level, our traditional level, and that revenues to the Federal Government are jumping significantly because of the good tax policies we have in place, the fair tax policies we have in place.
So we know you cannot solve this problem by continuing to raise taxes on the American people. The total tax burden to the American people today, including State, local, and Federal, is almost at a historic high. How much higher can you put that tax burden on the American people? No, you cannot do it on that side of the ledger. In fact, what we have proven is you generate more revenues by giving people an incentive to be productive and to go out and create jobs by having a fair and reasonable tax rate rather than jumping tax rates to the point where people have a disincentive to be productive and thus start to reduce revenues to the Federal Government.
That was proven by John Kennedy, confirmed by Ronald Reagan, and now confirmed again by George W. Bush. It should be accepted policy around here, but it is rejected by the other side of the aisle, which still subscribes to this 1930s philosophy of governance, which is that you can always raise taxes to meet any problem. No. The problem is that we need to be willing to step up and address spending.
This package, if it were to pass in its entirety--I hope the other side will not obstruct it coming to the floor. We hope to mark it up in Budget next week and report it out, and hope the other side will let us take it up. Let's have a free-flowing debate out here on the floor about how you address this issue.
The outyear threat to our children--which is a function of the fact there is a baby boom generation floating around here that is huge--is not going to go away and is going to demand significant services which will cost a dramatic amount of money.
Our proposal is comprehensive and extensive. It is a rebuilding, retooling approach toward how we manage this Congress and especially our budgets. It is a constructive approach, one that is committed toward delivering an affordable and effective government and a government that does not overburden our children and our grandchildren with taxes. So it will lead to a balanced budget, and it will lead to a government that is affordable.
I thank all my colleagues who have joined me in this effort, and I do hope we can move it forward.
Mr. President, I yield to the Senator from Alabama.
Absolutely not. In fact, under most scenarios, the current rate of spending on almost all of these major programs--such as Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid--would rise significantly; they just would not rise as fast. Medicare, for example, would probably, over this 5-year period, rise by about 40 percent, instead of 43 percent--something like that. Those are numbers off the top of my head, but those are the types of numbers we are talking about. You are talking about increased spending but at a slower rate and affordable.
Mr. President, the Senator from Alabama is absolutely right. We do not have to cut anywhere. All we have to do is slow the rate of growth so it is an affordable rate of growth because the compounding effect of slowing these rates of growth is huge.
Mr. President, the Senator from Alabama is correct. The rate
of growth of revenues to the Federal Government last year was about 14 percent. This year, through the first 6 months, it was about 11 percent and continues to grow dramatically. That is a function of the fact that we now have a tax policy which encourages people to go out and take risks and create jobs, which creates revenue.