Madam Speaker, pursuant to House Resolution 168, I call up the conference report on the bill (H.R. 1) making supplemental appropriations for job preservation and creation, infrastructure investment,…
Madam Speaker, pursuant to House Resolution 168, I call up the conference report on the bill (H.R. 1) making supplemental appropriations for job preservation and creation, infrastructure investment, energy efficiency and science, assistance to the
unemployed, and State and local fiscal stabilization, for fiscal year ending September 30, 2009, and for other purposes, and ask for its immediate consideration.
If the gentleman would yield, I would simply note the House has already voted on how it intends to proceed, and I see no reason to depart from that.
If the gentleman is asking, would the gentleman yield for a response?
Mr. Speaker, I ask unanimous consent that all Members may have 5 legislative days in which to revise and extend their remarks and include extraneous material on the conference report accompanying H.R. 1, and that I may include tabular material on the same.
Mr. Speaker, I yield myself 10 seconds.
As Senator Cochran said, the time for talk is over. It is time to vote. The country needs this package. I urge support. I think we ought to get on with it.
Economic Analysis of the Conference Report on H.R. 1, the American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act
Economists generally agree that the Nation is facing one of
the most dire economic crises in our history. Over the past
three months 1.8 million jobs have been lost after falling
the same amount in the prior ten months. Other economic data
also point to an ever-faster sinking U.S. economy:
Unemployment has soared by 4.1 million, an increase of more
than 50 percent from 7.5 million to 11.6 million since
December 2007 when the recession began.
Full time employment dropped 3.5 million over the last
three months, much faster than at any time since the data
began in 1967.
Consumer demand for goods fell at an 11 percent rate in the
second half of 2008, faster than at any time in the 62 years
of data.
Only five months in six decades of data saw lower use of
our manufacturing capacity than the 70.2 percent recorded in
December.
Exports fell at a 19.7 percent annual rate in the most
recent quarter.
Nothing indicates that these trends will not continue
unless the federal government acts. While forecasters differ
on specifics, many believe that without quick and decisive
action the Nation could suffer another 5 million job losses
over the coming year.
The U.S. economy is caught in a vicious downward spiral
with self-reinforcing declines in spending, sales, jobs,
income, profits, government revenues, state and local
services, investment, and global trade. The federal
government is the only major actor in the U.S. economy with
the capacity to stop the downward spiral.
The current downturn looks a lot more like the early stages
of the Great Depression than any episode since the 1930s:
Rapid shrinkage in private credit, with crisis in every
major financial sector;
The favorite tool of the Federal Reserve (the short term
rate to banks) already lowered to virtually zero;
Evaporating household wealth with plunging values of homes
and financial assets;
Record high supplies of vacant homes and declines in home
values with no end in sight;
The fewest cars sold relative to the population since the
1940s; and
Inflation is verging on negative territory or deflation, a
condition that discourages consumption, as people wait to buy
at lower prices, and investment, as sales become more
problematic and effective borrowing costs rise. Deflation
also undermines monetary policy because interest rates cannot
go negative.
Opponents of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
often argue that ``spending is not stimulus'' because
spending by government just reduces spending by others. That
argument effectively assumes that total spending in the
economy cannot be raised. That would make sense if either (1)
we were at full employment or (2) increased government
borrowing came from lenders who would otherwise spend the
money on U.S. goods and services. Neither condition
applies today. We have high rates of unemployed labor and
capital equipment. We also find lenders eager to fund
federal borrowing rather than to spend, as evidenced by
exceptionally low interest rates on U.S. Treasury Bills.
These are textbook conditions justifying federal
government borrowing to boost the economy.
Some critics of this legislation have misinterpreted
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis of the effects of
this legislation on jobs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
over the next ten years. CBO found that bills like those
passed in the House and Senate would increase job-years by
3.1 million to 9.0 million over the next six years and would
not lower jobs thereafter. CBO also found that GDP would be
raised over the next ten years. GDP would be boosted 3 to 10
percent over the next several years. If only this bill is
enacted and nothing is done to raise saving, the bill would
have a zero to 0.2 percent annual reduction of GDP in the
long run.
Other opponents of this legislation have proposed as an
alternative measures intended to boost housing production or
prices. With 2.9 percent of homes still vacant, half again as
much as at any time prior to 2005, we could fritter away
hundreds of billions of dollars of additional deficit with a
negligible boost to the economy or jobs.
The Congressional Budget Office and private economic
forecasters have evaluated various options for boosting
national spending from an additional dollar of federal
deficit. They have consistently found that the highest ``bang
for the buck'' occurs with either direct federal spending or
transferring funds to those with tight budget constraints
such as cash-strapped households and state and local
governments with falling revenues and balanced budget
requirements. In contrast, they find that much less
additional spending would result from making more money
available to those with high incomes or to companies with
excess capacity. In recent testimony, CBO Director Elmendorf
stated, ``In CBO's judgment, H.R. 1 would provide a
substantial boost to economic activity over the next several
years relative to what would occur without any legislation.''
The bill's $789 billion price tag sounds large, but it is
more likely to be too little than too much. The CBO director
has testified that, if nothing is done, our economic output
will fall below its potential by close to a trillion dollars
this year and next and by another $600 billion in 2011. He
noted that this would be the largest gap relative to the size
of potential output since the Great Depression. It would
represent a loss in Americans' income and output of $2.5
trillion, or about $8,000 per person, that will be lost
forever.
The forecasters at the Congressional Budget Office, Moody's
Economy.com, Macroeconomic Advisors, and the Obama
Administration have all estimated that enactment of this
legislation could create or save 3 to 4 million jobs. If we
can gainfully employ
those millions of people, as opposed to having them be
unemployed, they can create a stronger economy for the future
by building infrastructure, creating technologies, and
improving their education and skills.
The following table summarizes the funding levels in
division A of the conference report:
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I reserve the balance of my time.
Mr. Speaker, I yield 4 minutes to the distinguished chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, Mr. Rangel.
(Mr. RANGEL asked and was given permission to revise and extend his remarks.)
I yield the gentleman 1 minute.
I yield 2 minutes to the distinguished gentleman from Michigan (Mr. Levin).
(Mr. LEVIN asked and was given permission to revise and extend his remarks.)
I yield 2 minutes to the distinguished gentleman from California (Mr. Becerra).
I yield myself 10 seconds.
I wish the other side would make up their mind whether it's mice or rats, neither of which are in this bill if they will read it. Got it right here. Find it and show it to me. Show it to me. Show it to me.
I now yield 2 minutes to the distinguished gentleman from Washington (Mr. McDermott).
(Mr. McDERMOTT asked and was given permission to revise and extend his remarks.)
I yield 2 minutes to the distinguished gentleman from Massachusetts (Mr. Neal).
I yield 2 minutes to the distinguished gentleman from North Carolina (Mr. Etheridge).
(Mr. ETHERIDGE asked and was given permission to revise and extend his remarks.)
I yield 3 minutes to the distinguished chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, Mr. Waxman.
I yield 1 additional minute.
Mr. Speaker, I yield 1 minute to the distinguished dean of the House, the longest-serving Member in the House of Representatives of any Member in history, the gentleman from Michigan (Mr. Dingell).
(Mr. DINGELL asked and was given permission to revise and extend his remarks.)
I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentleman from New Jersey (Mr. Pallone).
I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentleman from Illinois (Mr. Rush).
I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentlewoman from California (Ms. Eshoo).
I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentlewoman from California (Mrs. Capps).
I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentleman from New York (Mr. Engel).
I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentlewoman from California (Ms. Harman).
I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentleman from Massachusetts (Mr. Markey).
Mr. Speaker, I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentleman from North Carolina (Mr. Butterfield).
I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentleman from Vermont (Mr. Welch).
Mr. Speaker, I yield 1 minute to the distinguished majority leader, Mr. Hoyer.
(Mr. HOYER asked and was given permission to revise and extend his remarks.)
I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentleman from Maryland (Mr. Van Hollen).
I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentlewoman from Connecticut (Ms. DeLauro).
Could I inquire of the gentleman how many speakers he has remaining?
Then I would ask the gentleman to proceed. We have only two left--the Speaker, and I will be closing.
Then I would suggest the gentleman proceed.
Then I would yield 1 minute to the distinguished Speaker of the House.
Mr. Speaker, could I inquire how many more speakers the gentleman has.
Mr. Speaker, I yield myself the remainder of the time.
Mr. Speaker, this country faces the greatest crisis that we've seen in terms of our economy since the 1930s. Unemployment is expected by many people to hit 12 percent. We're told if we do nothing, we're likely to see unemployment at least around 12 percent; and we hope that with the passage of this proposal, we can mitigate that disaster to a significant degree.
Why are we in this trouble? Because we have had a virtual collapse and a freeze-up of the financial system and the credit markets; we've had a collapse of the housing sector of the economy and the auto sector of the economy.
In normal circumstances in a normal recession, we are usually led out of that recession by housing and by automobiles. This time, those two sectors are in shambles. They're not going to lead us out of anything for the moment.
The other tool normally available to us is monetary policy in the form of low interest rates through action of the Federal Reserve. We've already fired that bullet.
The only bullet left is fiscal policy. And so what we are trying to do with this bill is to save and create several million jobs, we're trying to help the victims of the recession who are losing their jobs, losing their health, losing their pensions, losing their ability to send their kids to college; and at the same time, we're trying to invest in new portions of the economy through science, technology, new energy initiatives to try to modernize the economy and make it stronger as we come out of this recession, as we most certainly eventually will.
And we are also, despite the objections of some on the minority, trying to put a quite significant amount of money into the health care system. What on earth is wrong with trying to save money in the health care system and at the same time making it more efficient by transferring our medical records to computerized records to reduce errors, and to save money at the same time?
Guess what? This bill isn't perfect. Guess what? I've never seen a perfect bill produced by this or any other legislative body.
You know, the worst thing that people can do in this town is to believe their own baloney. And I think what the likelihood is on this bill, frankly, is that supporters of the bill are inclined to overstate its possibilities and opponents, as we've seen here today, are certainly inclined to trash it.
I was criticized in the Rules Committee last night and again on the floor today because I frankly said, ``I do not know how many jobs this bill is likely to produce.''
What I do know is that the consensus of reputable economists around the country is that this bill will save or create several million jobs. Exactly how many will be determined by history.
Now, the critics say a number of things. They say the bill is too big, and then they announce they're going to produce a recommit motion which adds $9 billion to the cost. That's what I call falling off both sides of the same horse at the same time.
I would suggest that this bill is big, all right, but I'll make you a deal: You show me a smaller problem that we have to confront, and I will be happy to produce a smaller bill.
The fact is, we face, over the next 2\1/2\ years, a hole in the economy of approaching $2.5 to $3 trillion.
This is an $800 billion package over 2\1/2\ years. That means the annual fiscal thrust without the economic multipliers is about $300 billion. I personally think that it is smaller than it needs to be, but it has been downsized since it left the House to some degree in order to try to pick up Republican support in the Senate, and I understand that.
The critics have another technique: They trash by trivializing. They follow the guidelines laid out by one of the Members of their leadership a few months ago when he said in The Post that the way they ought to deal with the Democratic majority is to behave like a thousand mosquitos inflicting mosquito bites and tormenting the majority.
And so what do they say? They tell us, for instance, that there's an earmark in here for rail under ``high-speed rail.'' The fact is, there is not. All of the funding in that account is discretionary. It will be awarded competitively, and the decisions will be made entirely by the Department of Transportation. And the last time I looked, the new Cabinet Secretary was a Republican.
Secondly, they tell us that we're spending more money on the arts than we are on small business. We're putting $750 million in this bill for small business. There's $50 million in here for the arts. And you know what, there are 5 million people who work in the arts industry, and right now, they've got 12\1/2\ percent unemployment. Or are you suggesting that somehow if you work in that field, it isn't real when you lose your job, it isn't real when you lose your mortgage, it isn't real when you
lose your health insurance? We're trying to treat people who work in the arts the same way as anybody else.
And then they tell us there are mice, except when they say they're rats. Well, I would simply urge you to read The Mercury News because The Mercury News points out that that is a fallacious attack.
They say that we're spending $30 million on mice. Where did the $30 million figure come from? According to The Mercury News, and I will read this, ``It turns out that $30 million is the total amount that the California Coastal Conservancy, a State agency, recommended more than a month ago to numerous Federal agencies looking for lists of `shovel ready' projects as part of the stimulus bill planning.'' And the staff director for the minority leader himself told the press yesterday that he had to admit there was no specific reference to any mice or rats in this bill.
There is one place in this budget, however, where you do have mice. It's at NIH. One of the Members of this House told me today, ``I'd be happy to talk about mice because research projects at NIH saved my life''. Cancer research, the research is done on mice. Would you rather have the experimentation done on human beings? I don't think so.
If you look at what this bill does, it provides an $800 tax break for middle American couples. It provides $120 billion in infrastructure to create hundreds of thousands of jobs. It shows some mercy to people who are unemployed by extending and expanding unemployment benefits. It tries to modernize the economy to create new jobs through science and technology. It provides $170 billion to help States avoid catastrophic tax increases that would be counterproductive during this kind of a recession. And it also helps them to avoid drastic cutbacks in education, in law enforcement, so that they don't have to fire cops, they don't have to fire teachers, they don't have to fire prison guards and all of the other people who are paid for out of State budgets. Those are some of the ``terrible'' things the bill does.
Now, this bill does have one problem. It is estimated that it creates about 1 million fewer jobs than it did when it left the House earlier. It does that in an effort to be bipartisan because the President reached out to try to get Republican support in the Senate, and he makes no apology for that and neither do I. But the fact remains, we still have 86 percent of the House bill that we had when the bill left the House. That is a pretty doggone good ratio.
I think we need to appreciate that this bill is the largest change in domestic policy since the 1930s. Think of what has happened.
One month ago, we had a President who insisted on holding up the entire domestic appropriation part of the budget because he wanted to impose $30 billion in cuts in education, in health care, science and the rest. In contrast today, we have a President who is willing to invest $800 billion to attack this recession and to turn this economy into a stronger and better economy for every American, not just the top 10 percent who have benefited by Republican policies.
One month ago, we had a President who resisted raising the minimum wage and resisted providing expanded unemployment insurance. Today, we've got a President who's reversing that policy and says ``Go to it, help those people, they need it.''
And we've also got a President who is willing to put $90 billion into States to preserve our society's ability to see to it that poor families and kids don't get knocked off the Medicaid rolls.
One month ago, we had a President who asked us to pass No Child Left Behind and then for the next 8 years reneged on the promise to provide additional funding to pay for the cost of those mandates. We had a vote today on the issue of mandates. The mother of all mandates has been No Child Left Behind, which I voted for, but I expected the President not to welch on the deal, and financially, he did. This changes that. This reverses that policy.
I would ask Members to vote for this bill. It will change this country for the better.
Would the gentleman yield?
Let me simply thank the gentleman for his comments and say that I appreciate the fact that we can debate these issues and still remain personal friends.
And I also want to thank, as the gentleman has, I want to thank profoundly the staff of this committee and all the committees who worked so hard. So often these people go 1 and 2 and 3 days in a row with little or no sleep. That certainly has been the case this week, and I'm profoundly grateful to the staff, certainly on our side of the aisle, especially Beverly Pheto who has become staff director because the White House stole our previous staff director.