Mr. President, to set the stage a little for today, to give Senators an opportunity to know the lay of the land, yesterday the Senate put in quite a long day, as we all know. By my count, we…
Mr. President, to set the stage a little for today, to give Senators an opportunity to know the lay of the land, yesterday the Senate put in quite a long day, as we all know. By my count, we considered 28 amendments, we conducted 8 rollcall votes, and we accepted a number of amendments by voice vote.
I want to highlight one amendment adopted, the Isakson-Lieberman amendment, which provides Federal income tax credit for home purchases. This amendment addresses one of the central points that Senators on the other side of the aisle have been raising, namely that we need to address the housing market.
I might say, Senators on both sides of the aisle are concerned about the degree to which we are addressing the housing market. We adopted the Isakson-Lieberman amendment that does just that, and I am proud we accepted their idea.
I want to clear up the record on the Cornyn amendment. Yesterday I raised a pay-go point of order against the Cornyn amendment. After the Senate failed to waive the budget provisions, the Chair ruled the amendment violated the budget.
The budget rules require both the Presiding Officer and myself to rely on the Budget Committee to determine whether an amendment violates the budget. Budget Committee staff advised my staff and the Parliamentarian that there was a pay-go point of order against the Cornyn amendment. But in reality the amendment did not violate the pay- go rules.
I apologize to the Senator from Texas for raising that point of order. But as the vote to waive the budget was 37 in favor, 60 opposed, raising the point of order did not change the result and I hope my statement now will clear up the record.
Looking forward, we expect another busy day today. I expect we will process a number of amendments. We may have rollcall votes throughout the day. We may well work late into the evening. But I have good reason to hope we might finish this bill this evening, and that is a goal toward which we are working.
For the information of Senators, 14 amendments are now pending. Those amendments are: the underlying Finance-Appropriations Committee substitute amendment, No. 98; the Murray amendment No. 110; the Feingold amendment No. 140, regarding earmarks--I might add, the Murray amendment No. 110 is with respect to infrastructure--again, the Feingold amendment No. 140 is with respect to earmarks; Thune amendment 197, that is a House Republican alternative; Dorgan amendment No. 200, runaway plants; Ensign amendment No. 353, substitute housing; Dodd amendment No. 354, executive pay; Barrasso amendment No. 326, environmental laws; DeMint amendment No. 189, religious freedom; Boxer amendment No. 363, environmental laws; Harkin amendment No. 338, auto trade-in; Dodd amendment No. 145, foreclosure mitigation; McCaskill amendment No. 125, CEO pay; McCaskill amendment No. 236, as modified--I think that is with respect to the inspector general.
That is it so far. This morning we expect to hear from Senator McCain on his substitute amendment. Thereafter, we expect to hear from Senators Ensign, Wyden, and Cantwell about amendments they intend to offer. Once again, I ask Senators to let the managers know about amendments they intend to offer. The more we know, the more quickly and expeditiously we can proceed. A little notice helps a lot here.
We had a great day yesterday. I expect another one today. Mind you, we must move quickly because the recession is so deep. Americans are depending on Congress to act. Let's act, let's get the job done. Other problems that are very important can be pushed off to later dates, but today let's get this bill passed and in conference with the House so the President can sign it and people can get some relief.
Senator, offer your amendment.
Mr. President, in an effort to get some order and move things along, I would like to lock in the order of speakers, continuing our practice of alternating back and forth. I ask unanimous consent that the next speakers recognized be the following Senators in the following order: Senator Kyl, Senator Sanders, Senator Thune, Senator Baucus, then Senator Graham--actually, Senator Grassley.
Mr. President, I will withdraw the request, and we will work that out while Senator Kyl is speaking.
Mr. President, I feel constrained to object because there was an understanding, an agreement, that the Ensign amendment would be the amendment that would come up after the McCain amendment.
I say to the Senator, let me work this out with you privately. I will find a way to accommodate the Senator.
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the following speakers be recognized in the following order, honoring our time- honored tradition of going back and forth: first, the chairman of the Appropriations Committee, Senator Inouye; second, Senator Graham; third, myself; fourth, Senator Alexander; fifth, Senator Schumer; next is Senator Coburn; next is Senator Cantwell; next is Senator Inhofe; followed by a Democratic Senator; followed by Senator Hutchison from Texas.
Mr. President, first I want to correct--I know it is a very minor mistake the Senator made--the markup of the Finance Committee took over 11\1/2\ hours, not 1\1/2\ hours, as the Senator represented.
But, frankly, the main question is, how do we get people back to work?
How do we get our economy moving? That is the question.
There are lots of ideas. A lot of people have spent a lot of time working, trying to find the best solutions--a lot of economists, a lot of experts. It is true we are in, probably, the deepest recession this country has faced since the Great Depression. That is true. It is also true the economy is much different now than it was back in the 1930s. That is also true. The banking system is different. We now have an international dimension. It is greater today than was the case back in the Great Depression. So, therefore, it is true to some degree we are kind of learning as we are doing. Nobody has all the answers--nobody does. Most of us working on this recognize that. All of us are doing the best we can, on both sides of the aisle. We are trying to figure this out and do the best we can with the resources we have and with the Government we have.
Different people, of course, have different estimates. Let me tell you what the basic estimates are from the people I have talked to. They say there is about a $1 trillion gap between the potential American economy and the actual economy--about a $1 trillion gap. The real question is, how do we fill in that gap? What do we do to make sure the real economy matches up to the potential economy?
There are three basic components, most people agree: One is to do what we can to unfreeze the credit markets. Banks are not loaning. It is an issue that has been discussed at length in the last many months. The question is, what do we do to unfreeze the credit markets in this country so banks start to loan money, start to loan money to creditworthy borrowers? That is one challenge, and that is the reason for all these programs, such as TARP.
We can debate whether they are perfect. They are probably not perfect. But that is a part of the solution, do what we can to get banks to unfreeze the credit markets.
Another component is housing. What do we do about all these houses where the mortgage is much greater than the actual market value of the house? The common term, it is called ``underwater.'' Estimates are between one in four, maybe one in five American houses is underwater. What do we do to help address housing? We are working on that.
There are many features in this bill that address housing. For example, the $15,000 tax credit offered by the Senator from Georgia, Mr. Isakson, and the Senator from Connecticut, Mr. Lieberman, adopted by the Senate--that is going to help. It is a $15,000 tax credit for the purchase of a home. There are many other housing provisions enacted by the Banking Committee. Some are in this bill. Others are in other bills. Of course we have to go further.
The third component is consumer demand. What can we do in this country to help people feel a little better about things so they can start spending--people can start spending some money? First, they have to have money, and that gets to jobs. We also want to encourage people to spend money so the economy starts to loosen up, and that also creates jobs. That is the problem to which the bill is addressed. That is the third component, which is basically on the demand side, to help people spend money.
How do we do that? One way is to get measures passed to create jobs. It is bridges, it is roads and infrastructure, and so forth.
Without being too simplistic, what has happened in this country in the last several years is, we have become way over leveraged. Banks have borrowed way too much. Hedge funds, private equity funds have borrowed way too much--leveraged maybe 30, 40 times. American credit card debt has gone up. Individuals have become overleveraged. Businesses have become overleveraged. When you borrow much more than your assets, clearly when times start to constrict a little, it is a huge problem to pay off your loans, to pay off your debt, especially when you are leveraged in an amount that is 40 times your assets. That is really a problem.
That is what has happened in this country. So in a certain sense, while the private sector is deleveraging, the public sector is starting to leverage to fill the gap, to keep things going. That is the reason for the borrowing.
We are all concerned about how far this is going to go, how much debt it will be. Will we be able to pay off the debt? Is it going to work or is it not going to work? The answer to that is, first, we have to spend to make things happen. I do believe, frankly, it is better to spend more than less because if we spend more, there is a psychology, in addition to an actual multiplier dollar effect, that there is light at the end of the tunnel, and we are going to find a solution--compared with being tepid, being timid, just putting our toe in the water a little bit. I think that is not a good idea.
So the $800 billion--this bill is close to $900 billion right now. Some suggest maybe $800 billion is where we should end up. I think that would be fine. But will this help create jobs, this $800 billion? That is the basic question. And how do we fill the $1 trillion gap between the potential economy and the real economy? Most people I think, and most economists who are reputable, I think, will say that if we do nothing, that $1 trillion gap will double to about $2 trillion. These are rightwing economists, leftwing economists--there is a basic agreement among almost all economists that we have to spend some money to get things back on track again.
I have a summary of a letter from the Congressional Budget Office-- released yesterday--trying to determine the effects of this bill on jobs. What is the effect of the bill we are considering on gross domestic product? Let me just give you some highlights. This is a letter from the Congressional Budget Office. It is a nonpartisan organization.
Let me say, a lot of economists have their incomes paid for by people on one side of an issue or the other. That is one reason things get slanted sometimes. But this is the Congressional Budget Office. They don't make a lot of money, but these guys and women are very good, and they are public servants. They want to do this job. What do they say?
They say between now and the fourth quarter of 2010, the number of jobs created under the underlying bill, plus the number of jobs saved, is in a range between 1.3 to 3.9; basically between 1.3 million to 4 million jobs created and saved between now and the fourth quarter of 2010. That is CBO's best estimate. Granted, there is a range. We don't have a precise number, but it is a range.
The amendment offered by the Senator from Arizona cuts that in half. So let's cut it in half; the resulting range is 0.6 million jobs to about 2 million jobs, roughly. That is not close to beginning to fill the $1 to $2 trillion gap between the real economy and the potential economy.
CBO also says that under the Senate bill, GDP would increase by 1.2 percent to 3.6 percent by the end of 2010. The unemployment rate will decline between 0.7 percentage points and 2.1 percentage points. Let's take a midpoint. That is roughly a 1.5-percentage point reduction in the unemployment rate. The midpoint for the increase in GDP is about 2.4 percent. And the midpoint for the number of jobs created or saved is about 2.6 million. It is 2.6 million jobs created or saved under this bill.
Let me just read a sentence from the letter. The letter says:
For all of the categories [of spending or taxes] that would
be affected by the Senate legislation, resulting budgetary
changes are estimated to raise output in the short run,
albeit by different amounts.
That gets to my next point. Different dollars spent differently have different effects. They all are stimulative, some more stimulative than others. The letter goes on to say:
. . . direct purchases of goods and services [by Uncle Sam]
tend to have large effects on GDP.
The letter then lists the numerical stimulative effect of each category of new spending and tax cuts. For purchases of goods and services by the Federal Government, the multiplier effect is between $1 and $2.50. The midpoint is $1.75. For transfers to State and local government used for infrastructure, the effect is about the same: between $1.00 and $2.50. For transfers to State and local governments for programs other than infrastructure, it is less, from 70 cents to $1.90 on the dollar.
For transfers to persons who are receiving unemployment benefits the return on a dollar is higher. Transfers to
people who are unemployed are most likely to be spent, not saved. The return on a dollar is between 80 cents and $2.20.
For Making Work Pay--that tax cut is a key feature of this bill--the multiplier effect is between 50 cents and $1.70 on the dollar. The midpoint of the return on the dollar is $1.10
I might say, the effect for the 1-year patch to the AMT, the return on a dollar is between 10 cents and 50 cents. There is not a lot of multiplier effect for the AMT. And for the loss carryback business provisions, the multiplier effect is between zero and 40 cents.
Basically, what CBO is saying is what a lot of us intuitively believe: a dollar spent on roads and bridges and infrastructure will have a pretty high effect. Dollars transferred to low-income people, such as dollars for unemployment benefits, also have a very large effect.
Why do I say all this? I say this in part because I think it is helpful for us to know what the Congressional Budget Office believes. There are so many opinions here in Washington, it is just up to us to separate the wheat from the chaff, to listen to the music as well as the words, to try to read between the lines, to try to figure out what is really going on, and I think the Congressional Budget Office's estimates are a pretty good indicator.
We are concerned about the long-term debt--clearly, we are. There is not a Senator here who is not concerned about the long-term budget effects of what we do. We don't know exactly what the long-term effects are going to be, but we are concerned about them.
The President is going to have a fiscal summit on this very issue. He is inviting a good number of people; it will probably last 3 or 4 or 5 weeks. It is obviously a concern to the President, and it is obviously a concern to all of us.
Let's also remember the President is going to submit a budget sometime this month. It is going to be a blueprint for the President's programs and plans. Clearly, he is going to have to be thinking about the long-term debt too. Obviously, I think it will be very important for us to see what the President's budget is, and then to work with the Budget Committees, in this body and in the other body, to put together a blueprint and to try to get a handle on long-term debt.
This amendment offered by the Senator from Arizona, Mr. McCain, tries to get at this long-run debt problem by setting up two entitlement commissions. One is to address Social Security and the other is to address Medicare and Medicaid. I think on the surface that is interesting, but let's look at the facts. These entitlement commissions could make recommendations which Congress could amend but on which debate could be limited. The limit on debate greatly concerns me.
And let's look at the basic entitlements people talk about. What are they?
One is Social Security. Back in 1983, I think it was, the Social Security trust fund was about to go belly up. It was going kaput. I think there were enough funds in the Trust Fund that when added to new taxes coming in, full benefits could be paid for only 6 months. There was that little in the Social Security trust fund. The idea of a commission was raised. President Reagan called it together, it had both Republicans and Democrats on it. At the end, they agreed to do about the only thing they could do, and that was to cut benefits and raise taxes. That was put together based on a handshake between Tip O'Neill and Jim Baker.
There was a famous telephone conversation--hey, Mr. Speaker, if you agree to lower benefits, we will agree to raise taxes. We will greet each other, shake hands on it, and neither will attack each other. That was the deal. They didn't attack each other. That is what happened: benefits were cut a little and taxes were raised a little. Again, there was the gun at the head of everybody, especially seniors, because Social Security was about to go belly up in 6 months.
What is the situation today? Is the Social Security Trust Fund in dire jeopardy? No.
The Social Security trust fund is solvent, all of the actuaries say, to the year--I do not know the exact date--2041, 2042, something like that. So I wonder. Sure, we should start early on things. But there are only two ways to make the Trust Fund solvent beyond 2041, to say 2090 or 2100, and that is by cutting benefits and raising taxes.
Now, when times are tough--we are in a recession right now--I do not know how wise it is to talk about raising taxes and cutting benefits for a problem that is not real, not now. Maybe in a couple of 3 years when the economy is doing better, then we could tackle the Social Security trust fund. I do not think it is wise to have an entitlements commission tackling Social Security at this point.
What is the bigger problem? Medicare. That is the big problem. The Medicare trust fund is not going to last much longer, 6, 8, 9, 10 years, something like that. And what is causing such a problem? We have such a problem because health care costs in this country are rising at such a rapid rate, close to two times the rate of inflation. And, as you know, we spend about twice as much per capita in health care in America than do people in other countries.
So does an entitlements commission cutting Medicare make a lot of sense? Well, on the surface, yes. The costs have gone up, so the commission would cut Medicare. But the only way to cut Medicare is to cut benefits. I do not know if that is wise because health care costs are already such a problem for seniors and others today. Similarly, I don't know if it is wise to do a myriad of other things to the Medicare program that one might be able to do.
My point is, an entitlement commission is not qualified to address health care reform. Health care reform is an incredibly important, incredibly complicated matter. If we get health care reform on track, that is, legislation to start to reform our health care system, that will include getting significant reductions in cost. That is the way to address Medicare. Health care reform includes coverage of 46 million Americans who do not have health insurance, it includes health care delivery reform, it includes a lot of reimbursement reform. There are lots and lots of ways we should embark upon to address health care reform.
In fact, I asked the President yesterday about his agenda. After, this bill before us, we will probably get involved in some financial regulatory reform. The health care reform is one of his top priorities. He wants it done this year. And it has to be done this year, because part of economic recovery is health reform.
Look how much in costs this health system is adding to the problems of individuals in our economy, because their costs are going up. And there are costs to companies that have to lay off people, not hiring people, to some degree because of health care costs, and certainly not increasing health benefits for employees. There also are costs to budgets for the States, localities, and the Federal Government.
I suggest it is not wise, the provision in the McCain amendment, to set up a Medicare commission but, rather to tackle head-on health care reform. I do believe the President is going to announce a health care summit in the not too distant future as a way to get this going. Senator Daschle is all lined up and keyed up to get health care reform going. He wrote a book on it. I know the administration is dedicated to making sure that health care reform does not slip, that it is very much front and center.
Another provision I want to touch upon in the McCain amendment which I think Senators should know about, because it has a real effect, is this provision: essentially, the McCain amendment lowers the tax in the 10- and 15-percent brackets. So as a consequence of this McCain amendment, were it to be enacted, then people who pay income taxes today would pay less in incomes taxes. All Americans would--all Americans who pay income taxes, that is. Americans who pay income taxes would not necessarily in all brackets pay less because of the way our system is set up. Well, that sounds good. But what is of concern here?
The concern here is about 49 million Americans who would get no reduction in their taxes, none. Who are they? Well, they are people who do not pay income taxes, who tend to be low-income people. The underlying bill before us reduces taxes for those people who
work. It is payroll tax related. If you work, under the underlying bill, you are going to get a reduction in your taxes, your income taxes. You will get a check basically, if you do not pay income taxes. And if you work, you get a reduction in your income taxes.
There are 49 million Americans who will not receive a tax break under the McCain amendment but who do receive a tax break in the underlying bill. And those 49 million Americans are lower income people basically, because they are not earning enough to pay income taxes. They pay payroll taxes, because they are working, but they do not pay income taxes.
I do not think that is fair. CBO and others point out lower income people, middle-income people who get a rebate or break will spend the money to stimulate the economy. Again, we are trying to address the demand side here in this bill, getting people to spend the money.
Credit markets are one issue; housing is another issue. But this bill basically addresses the demand side. I think we do not want to shift dollars away from those 49 million people over to the higher income people as is accomplished in this amendment.
The underlying bill has what is called an alternative minimum tax patch; that is, your alternative minimum taxes will not increase in 2009 compared with what they may have been earlier. Basically it is a deflationary factor so you do not pay more.
The underlying McCain amendment does not have that. In the McCain amendment, millions of people are going to end up paying more taxes because he does not have the so-called AMT patch or fix in it.
My main point is this bill, according to economists, will help. We are, down the road, going to find ways--in the President's budget, fiscal summit, et cetera--to address the long-term debt questions. So we can only do things one step at a time. We cannot solve all of the world's problems in one bill. But we can take one bite of the elephant here, a pretty good bite, a good bite of the elephant here, that is going to help stimulate demand and help create jobs as we work our way through the economic recovery.
Madam President, the Senator from New York was called away. I ask unanimous consent that after Senator Alexander speaks, the next Senator to speak will be Senator Cantwell.
The PRESIDING OFFICER (Mrs. Hagan.) Without objection, it is so ordered.
The Senator from Tennessee is recognized.
Mr. President, I was distracted. Is the Senator making a request?
I object.
I might say there is already an order. It is all worked out, but I appreciate the Senator's statement. My understanding is that was the case. That was already agreed to.
That is correct.
Mr. President, I deeply appreciate the demeanor and the manner and the cooperation of the Senator from Arizona. He has an amendment he believes in strongly. Many Senators have spoken on behalf of his amendment; many have spoken in opposition to his amendment.
But he has been very helpful in trying to work out a manner and a way and a time agreement where we can deal very expeditiously and fairly with the Senator from Arizona. My intent is to get a vote on the McCain amendment as soon as we possibly can. The Senator said there are a couple more speakers on his side who wish to speak. I imagine there are a couple on this side too.
I cannot tell the Senator we will definitely have a vote as soon as those four speakers speak. It is my intention to have that vote. I do not know if I can arrange that at this point yet. But plan B would be a series of amendments beginning a little later in the day--not much later, approximately 3:30. And the amendment offered by the Senator from Arizona will be the first amendment. His amendment would come up first. Then votes on other amendments would come up later.
My first preference is to vote earlier. If we cannot do that, then the whole package begins at 3:30 with the Senator first.
Mr. President, I do not see the Democratic Senator. She is not here to speak. I will go down the list. I think the Senator from Mississippi should be recognized.
The PRESIDING OFFICER (Mr. Leahy.) Under the previous order, the Senator from Mississippi is recognized.
If Senators wish to speak, they can come to me and we will set up an order. The Senator from Nevada is next, then Senator Kohl, then Senator Chambliss, then Senator Dodd. We are down that far already. Hopefully, we can get an agreement to start voting very quickly.
There is no time.
Frankly, Mr. President, I think the next speaker should be you.
You are on. The Senator from Georgia.
That will be fine.
I yield 6 minutes to the chairman of the Appropriations Committee, the Senator from Hawaii.
Madam President, I yield to the Senator from Michigan.
Madam President, it goes without saying we are now living in extraordinary times. This country has not seen a recession as bad as this--there are many people who have lost their jobs, as we have seen-- since the Great Depression. Extraordinary times require extraordinary actions.
It is true no one knows exactly the precise prescription, how to get the economy back going again. But this underlying bill is certainly the best efforts of some of the brightest people to try to find that solution. Economists all say--all say--we need to do something like this to get us going.
With the gap between the real economy and the potential economy always about $1 trillion, if we do not pass this legislation, we will probably lose another $1 trillion. The underlying bill is much better than the alternative. The alternative is basically: Don't do it. If we do not do it, gosh, the jobs lost--what you see now, as bad as it is, is just going to pale in comparison to what otherwise is going to happen.
So I urge us to stick with the underlying bill, not adopt a substitute which has not been thought through, not aired, but, rather, let's stick with the program we think is going to work.
Madam President, I raise a point of order that the pending amendment violates section 306 of the Congressional Budget Act.
Madam President, I ask unanimous consent that the Dorgan amendment be temporarily set aside so the next vote will be on the Feingold-McCain amendment and Dorgan will be following that amendment.
Mr. President, I yield the remaining time to the Senator from Hawaii.
Mr. President, I understand all time has expired.
I ask for the yeas and nays.
I move to lay that motion on the table.
The motion to lay on the table was agreed to.
Amendment No. 200
I believe under the previous order the Dorgan amendment recurs.
Mr. President, the Senator is correct. We accept this amendment.
Mr. President, I have no opposition to the amendment and again recommend its adoption.
I move to lay that motion on the table.
The motion to lay on the table was agreed to.
Amendment No. 189