Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the order for the quorum call be rescinded. Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent to speak as in morning business. Mr. President, I rise today to talk…
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the order for the quorum call be rescinded.
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent to speak as in morning business.
Mr. President, I rise today to talk about our debt crisis, our short-term debt crisis and our long-term debt crisis. I come here today to discuss ways to address them and ways not to address them.
Our most immediate debt crisis is now upon us. In order to maintain the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government, Congress will have to vote to raise the debt ceiling within a matter of weeks. This is something Congress has done as a matter of course many times over the years as our national debt has grown.
Let us be clear about what exactly it means to raise the debt ceiling and why it is necessary. As a nation, we have accumulated $14.3 trillion in debt. This in and of itself is a very bad and dangerous thing. That means our national debt is currently 93 percent of our gross national product. Again, this is a very bad and dangerous thing. We have been in this situation before. Actually, it has been worse. After World War II, our national debt was at 121.7 percent of our gross national product. We certainly had something to show for it. We had won World War II.
Through the 1940s, 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, we worked our way to a point where our national debt fell to 32.5 percent of GDP in 1981. We did this through a combination of growth and some inflation. Our debt was in pretty good shape until we hit the 1980s, during which we quadrupled our national debt under Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.
We have hashed over time and again who is to blame for the situation we find ourselves in. But let me leave that alone for the moment and get back to what it means to raise the debt ceiling. As I said, our debt currently stands at $14.3 trillion. I think we can agree on this: That number reflects past choices, not current ones.
The debt ceiling also stands at $14.3 trillion. We have to raise the debt ceiling because we as a nation have certain obligations we must meet. We have to pay for the wars we are currently engaged in. We have obligations to veterans who have served our Nation. We have obligations to have the dedicated men and women at FEMA who have been responding to the many floods and fires our Nation has been facing.
We have obligations to seniors who have paid into Social Security all their working lives and have a right to expect a check every month of their retirement.
We have obligations under Medicare, not just to seniors, who again have paid in, but to clinics and hospitals and health care providers and to those who supply medicine and medical equipment.
We have contractual obligations of all kinds to many different businesses, whether they are building roads or water towers or providing IT services to the VA or the Park Service or the Senate. I think almost everyone would agree it is good to have guards in our Federal prisons, except maybe the prisoners. The list of obligations goes on and on, and one of our most fundamental obligations is to pay principal and interest to bondholders who have invested in what has been for decades and decades considered the safest investment in the world: the U.S. Treasury bond.
Currently, we simply are not taking in enough revenues to meet all these obligations, so we must borrow more. Of course, we must pay interest on our debt, at an interest rate that is now actually quite low.
The surest way to increase the interest on our debt would be to default on our debt obligations. And make no mistake, that is exactly what will happen if we fail to raise the debt ceiling. Even an increase in interest rates of just 1 percent would add $1.3 trillion to our interest payments over the next decade. So, as you can see, defaulting on our debt to make a point about the seriousness of our current position would, to say the least, be counterproductive. Yet some of my colleagues are willing to do just that, and that is irresponsible.
As to the notion that bondholders could be paid while other obligations were postponed, Scott Elmendorf, Chair of the Congressional Budget Office, said:
Defaulting on any government obligation is a dangerous
gamble.
We are not absolutely certain what exactly will happen if we default, but we have a pretty good idea. We know it would roil the international financial markets, induce rating downgrades of our Treasury notes, create fundamental doubts about the creditworthiness of the United States, and force us to pay higher interest rates to induce people to buy our bonds. It would damage the dollar and the special role of Treasury securities in global markets for decades to come--a dangerous gamble, one we cannot afford to take.
Defaulting on our debt would also be, as David Brooks so aptly put it, a stain upon our national honor. Are we actually going to become a country that cannot be relied on to pay its debts?
Yet we have Members of the House and Members of this body threatening to vote against raising the debt ceiling unless the President and Democrats in Congress meet their demands on how to address the deficit going forward.
Are my friends suggesting we act like a deadbeat who buys a new car and then, some time down the line, decides: ``You know, I just don't feel like making the payments''?
I think these Members are doing an enormous disservice by holding our Nation's economy and, indeed, the entire global economy hostage to their demands. Because the U.S. Treasury bond has been the foundation of the world financial system, it is not an overstatement to say that defaulting on our debt at this fragile point in the global economic recovery could throw us into a worldwide depression.
I am hardly alone in this regard. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce shares my alarm. It is no small secret that the Wall Street backers of the Republican Party are beseeching their allies in Congress to come to their senses.
Yet Republican leaders know there are also those in their party who believe this is their chance. This is their opportunity to exact concessions from the White House and Democrats in Congress precisely because the situation is so fraught with peril. They know the President of the United States cannot play a game of chicken with the full faith and credit of the United States of America. And in a game of chicken, the irrational and irresponsible player holds a distinct strategic advantage over the rational and responsible player.
So we find ourselves in this place at this time.
What are the demands?
Well, Republican leaders here in the Senate are holding the debt ceiling hostage so they can end Medicare as we know it. Democrats are trying to protect Medicare and ensure its solvency, and the Affordable Care Act is already doing that. Not only does the Affordable Care Act provide more benefits to Medicare recipients, it also extends the solvency of Medicare by 7 years. That is the conclusion of the most recent report of the Medicare trustees.
Of course, the first big idea from our friends on the other side of the aisle this Congress was to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and they all voted to do that. So please understand that one of their first votes this Congress would
have had the effect of diminishing the solvency of Medicare, shrinking the solvency of Medicare by 7 years.
Not only that, but according to the Congressional Budget Office, the Affordable Care Act will reduce the debt over the next decade by $210 billion, and over the decade following that by more than $1 trillion. So rather than saving money by making our health care system stronger, making our delivery of care more efficient, and keeping our constituents healthy, Republicans voted to repeal the health reform law. So the big Republican contribution to the sustainability of Medicare and our national debt was to vote to shorten Medicare's life expectancy by 7 years and to add well over $1 trillion to the debt in the next two decades.
There is no doubt that the biggest threat to the sustainability of our long-term debt is the cost of health care. That is why so much of the Affordable Care Act is designed to address the cost of the delivery of medical care.
Let me give you a couple of examples. First, the value index. The value index will direct that health care providers be reimbursed by the value of the care they provide rather than by the volume--the quality of the care rather than the quantity of care. In Minnesota, for instance, we do health care a lot better than most other States. We provide higher quality care at a lower cost than almost any other State. There is room for improvement in Minnesota, of course. As a health care economist told me: In Minnesota, we get an A, but that is because we grade on a curve.
In Texas, they get reimbursed 50 percent more per patient in Medicare than we do in Minnesota and yet we have better outcomes.
Why? Well, we have a different health care culture in Minnesota. We tend to do more coordinated, fully integrated care. We tend to see patients as people who we want to keep healthy and out of the hospital. In Texas, patients are more often viewed as profit centers. There are some excellent, high-value centers of health care in Texas, such as Baylor University. Then, there are some egregiously low-value ones, like some in McAllen, TX. And, by and large, Texas doctors order more procedures than Minnesota doctors so they can bill for more procedures.
But the idea here isn't to pit Minnesota against Texas. The idea is to incentivize low-value States to do health care more like high-value States. Imagine if we could bring down the cost of health care in Texas by one-third. Imagine the savings to Medicare and Medicaid.
One more example. Senator Lugar and I wrote a provision into the bill called the Diabetes Prevention Program. It is based on a CDC program piloted in Indianapolis and in St. Paul. They took folks that had been diagnosed with ``prediabetes'' and gave them 16 weeks of nutritional training and 16 weeks of physical exercise at the YMCA, all at a cost of only about $300 per person.
The number of people with prediabetes who later developed full-blown type 2 diabetes was reduced by almost 60 percent--60 percent! Caring for chronic disease is the most expensive piece of our health care system in this country. One of the most common chronic illnesses is diabetes. It costs our Nation $218 billion a year to treat diabetes.
A couple weeks after the Affordable Care Act passed, I brought the Under Secretary of Health and Human Services into my office to meet with diabetes experts from the CDC and with United Health Group, the country's largest insurance company. The goal of the meeting was to get HHS on board to bring the piloted Diabetes Prevention Program up to scale nationwide. The executive from United Health said she would definitely reimburse their policy holders for going through the 16-week program. She said, ``You know why? Because for every dollar we spend, we'll save four dollars.''
The value index and the Diabetes Prevention Program are but two of the many programs in the Affordable Care Act that have been written into the law. Jonathan Gruber, the MIT professor who helped put together the health reform system in Massachusetts when Mitt Romney was Governor there, has said of the Affordable Care Act, ``It's really hard to figure out how to bend the cost curve, but I can't think of a thing to try that they didn't try . . . You couldn't have done better than they are doing.''
Since then, in the House, Representative Paul Ryan and the Republicans in Congress have taken an entirely different approach. Instead of putting in the long, hard hours of consulting with health care providers, health care economists, patient groups, hospitals, rural health groups, and medical researchers to actually try to build on protocols that have been proven to bring down the cost of delivering quality medicine, Representative Ryan decided just to slash the funding of Medicare, give the money left over to seniors, and let them fend for themselves to buy their own health care from insurance companies.
Now, we know there was no functional market for health insurance for folks 65 and over before Medicare and Medicaid started in 1965. It is doubtful that there would be one now. Under the Republican plan, seniors would essentially get a voucher for a significantly lower amount than their Medicare is worth now. Remember that the cost to Medicare for administering its program is less than 2 percent. Insurance companies, on the other hand, spend around 11 percent on administration. The CBO estimates that under the Ryan plan, out-of- pocket cost for health care for each senior will more than double to over $12,500 a year.
This is not Medicare as we know it. It is not Medicare. So, understand this: the Republican plan to end Medicare would make huge cuts in Medicare benefits and put insurance companies in charge of seniors' health care. This would double the out-of-pocket costs for seniors and toss aside all the new benefits offered by the Affordable Care Act.
There is no question which vision of Medicare holds more hope for seniors and which takes a scientific, evidence-based, best practices approach to addressing the long-range cost of delivering health care to all Americans.
And yet my colleagues on the other side of the aisle are telling us that they are willing to risk throwing the global economy into depression if Democrats don't act more responsibly on Medicare.
Well, ok. Here is an idea. Allow Medicare to negotiate with the pharmaceutical companies on drugs for Medicare Part D. The VA does it. And guess what. The VA pays an average of 48 percent less than Medicare does for the top 10 most prescribed drugs. Now the pharmaceutical industry tells us they need us to pay the higher price because they need the money for research. But, in fact, they spend more money on advertising and marketing than they do on research.
Almost every other developed country uses its size to negotiate with the pharmaceutical companies. Why does the American taxpayer have to be the chump who pays full price? I say we negotiate with the pharmaceutical companies and bring down the cost to Medicare by as much as $24 billion a year, or $240 billion over the next 10 years. That could go straight to paying off the debt. There. I got you a $240 billion cut to Medicare. Now can we please vote to raise the debt ceiling and avert a worldwide economic catastrophe?
If my friends on the other side are really serious about getting our deficit under control, couldn't we start by getting rid of a measly $2 billion a year in taxpayer subsidies to oil companies--the companies that are getting record profits because the price of oil is so high? Unfortunately, according to my Republican colleagues, this would be a tax hike.
In order for us to agree to balance the budget, everyone has to pay. Who is in a better position to give? Exxon or a little girl in Minnesota named Evelyn. You see, Evelyn was born with cystic fibrosis. When she was 10, her liver failed, and her own toxins started to poison her. But Medicaid helped her get the care she needed. That is what this is about. Exxon or Evelyn. Frankly, it makes me kind of sad.
So there are some more billions for deficit reduction. Get rid of the subsidies to the five biggest oil companies--$21 billion over the next 10 years. And you know what? If we are seriously going to address our debt crisis, we have to increase revenues.
Now under the Republican plan, the cuts to end Medicare as we know it and to slash Medicaid all go to pay for tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans. That's right. The Republican plan cuts taxes on the top marginal rates for millionaires and billionaires from 35 percent to 25 percent.
Now my Republican friends like to say that tax cuts always produce revenue increases. Besides the fact that that is simply not true, it also contradicts the other argument Republicans use for not raising taxes. Raising taxes, Republicans often argue, would just give the government more money to spend. According to that oft-repeated Republican argument, cutting taxes will lower revenue and ``starve the beast.''
Here is President Ronald Reagan making this exact point in 1981:
There were always those who told us that taxes couldn't be
cut until spending was reduced. Well, you know, we can
lecture our children about extravagance until we run out of
voice and breath. Or we can cure their extravagance by simply
reducing their allowance.
In other words, cutting taxes cuts revenues and forces the children, in this case, the government, to cut spending.
So, at the heart of my friends' argument on why we must cut taxes are two completely contradictory, mutually exclusive arguments. On the one hand, according to my friends, lowering taxes always increases revenues and therefore brings down the deficit. On the other hand, they argue, lowering taxes decreases revenues. Which is it? Because you can't have it both ways.
I will try to provide some context for my friends. After President Reagan cut taxes in 1981, we immediately started amassing enormous deficits. They were so bad that President Reagan felt compelled to raise taxes in 1982 and then again in 1983. In fact, President Ronald Reagan, the supply-side icon, raised taxes 11 times. If President Reagan did that today, the Tea Party and, in fact, the entire Republican Party would run him out of town on a rail.
But, you see, President Reagan knew that to raise revenue, you have to either raise marginal tax rates, or get rid of tax loopholes for the wealthy and for big corporations. Which is what he did repeatedly.
Even so, our national debt nearly tripled during the Reagan Presidency. The national debt continued to grow rapidly during the George H. W. Bush administration. In fact, in 1993, he handed President Bill Clinton what at that point was the largest deficit in history.
So what did President Clinton do? Well, in his 1993 deficit reduction package, he added two new marginal tax rates at the top end--36 percent for those making over $180,000 and 39.6 percent for those making over $250,000. Every Republican voted against the package. They said that raising the top marginal tax rate would cause a recession. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich said:
I believe this will lead to a recession next year. This is
the Democrat machine's recession, and each one of them will
be held personally accountable.
Senator Phil Gramm of Texas said:
The Clinton plan is a one-way ticket to recession. This
plan does not reduce the deficit. But it raises taxes and it
puts people out of work.
Representative John Kasich, then ranking member of the House Budget Committee, said:
This plan will not work. If it was to work, I'd have to
become a Democrat.
Well, it worked. Not only did we have an unprecedented expansion of our economy for 8 years, creating more than 22 million new net jobs, but we balanced the budget and Bill Clinton handed George W. Bush a record surplus. I call that ``working.''
Now President Clinton, and especially the Democrats in Congress, paid a political price for the 1993 deficit reduction package. The Democrats went down to defeat in 1994, losing control of the House for the first time in 40 years. You could say that Democrats took a shellacking.
Nevertheless, between 1993 and 2001 the Nation created an unprecedented number of jobs benefiting every quartile of our economy, decreasing the number of Americans in poverty, increasing median income, and creating more millionaires than ever--to which my colleagues on the other side of the aisle might say, ``Sure, it worked in practice. But does it work in theory?''
President Clinton's deficit reduction plan not only reduced the deficit as planned, it eliminated it entirely and gave incoming President George W. Bush a record surplus. In fact, when President Bush took office, we were on track to completely pay off our national debt with $5 trillion of surpluses projected over the next 10 years. In other words, we would have zeroed out our national debt this year.
Five days after President Bush took office--again, after President Bush took office--Alan Greenspan testified to the Senate Budget Committee that we were in danger of paying off the national debt too quickly and entering uncharted territory in which the Federal Government would have too much money. The Federal Government, Greenspan warned, would have to put its excess money into private equities, thereby distorting and decreasing the efficiency of our markets.
President Bush told the country that a surplus meant that Americans were paying too much in taxes. This was our money, he told us, and so we all deserved a tax cut. Then after the economy went into recession, Bush told us that what we needed was another tax cut to stimulate the economy. So, in other words, ``when the economy is going strong, tax cuts are in order.'' And ``when the economy is weak, tax cuts are in order.'' Combine those with the aforementioned contradictory ``tax cuts reduce revenues forcing government to spend less of our money'' and ``tax cuts always increase revenues'' and you have an exquisitely incomprehensible economic theory.
But that exquisitely incomprehensible theory needed just one more element to make it downright dangerous. And that element would be provided by Vice President Richard Cheney.
By late 2002, the surplus President George W. Bush had inherited from Bill Clinton was turning once again into huge deficits. According to then-Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, he tried to warn Vice President Cheney that budget deficits were growing at an alarming rate, posing a threat to the economy. Vice President Cheney cut O'Neill off, saying, ``You know, Paul, Reagan proved deficits don't matter.''
By the end of his Presidency, George W. Bush left President Obama a budget deficit projected at $1.2 trillion for fiscal year 2009. Meanwhile, President Bush had doubled our national debt.
What was to blame? Could it have had anything to do with the fact that for the first time in history we cut taxes while we were at war?
Well, not according to the Republican leader. In July of last year Senator McConnell said: ``There's no evidence whatsoever that the Bush tax cuts actually diminished revenue.''
But adjusting for inflation, since the Bush tax cuts were enacted, revenues have fallen 17 percent. And that is not even taking into account growth in our population, which was 9 percent over this period. When you add the effect of population growth, revenues declined by about 24 percent per capita. I think this clearly constitutes evidence that the Bush tax cuts actually diminished revenue.
So it should be no surprise that reduced revenues are responsible for a lot of our deficit, as you can see here. This chart by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities is based on CBO data and shows that the Bush tax cuts were responsible for 25 percent of the deficit in 2010. And that is only going to grow. By 2019, the tax cuts will account for almost 60 percent of our deficit.
And the fact is that not only did the national debt double during the Bush administration, we also had a dismal record of job creation. And during the Bush years, for the first time since we started keeping records, median income fell in America. And more Americans fell into poverty. One in five children in America now lives in poverty. It is even higher in rural America.
There is one group that did very well during the Bush years, and continues to do very well: The extremely wealthy.
We now have in this country the greatest disparity in income and wealth that we have had since the 1920s.
So the one thing that there is no evidence whatsoever of is that cutting taxes on the wealthiest Americans can
create jobs and keep the deficit under control.
So why would we do it, when the evidence is so stark that the Bush tax cuts coincided with a huge spike in both the debt and unemployment?
Why not look back on what has worked in the past and learn from it?
As I said earlier, after World War II our debt as a percentage of GDP was, in fact, significantly larger than it is today. But what did we do? Well, we passed the G.I. bill so that our troops returning from the war could go to college.
Truman started the Marshall plan to help Europe get on its feet.
And it is not as if we had smooth sailing as far as Defense spending. We went to war in Korea, losing nearly 35,000 Americans. After that war ended, we found ourselves in an extended Cold War. We built the largest infrastructure project in our history, the Interstate Highway System-- it added enormously to our economic development, because now we could transport our goods around the country so much more efficiently.
When the Soviets launched Sputnik into space, we jump-started our space program and our investment in science and math education. My brother and I were Sputnik kids. He was 11 and I was 6 when it was launched. My parents took us into our living room in Minnesota and told us that we had to study math and science in order to beat the Soviets. I thought that was a big burden to place on an 11-year-old and a 6- year-old. But we were obedient sons, and so we studied math and science. And wouldn't you know it, my parents were right. We beat the Soviets.
The space program created all kinds of dividends in technology and to our economic development. I watched a Senate debate last fall in which the Republican candidate said that government had never created a job. The debate, of course, was broadcast by satellite.
I think you get the idea. The fact is the investments we made in the 1940s, 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s in science and technology, in our State universities, in infrastructure that was the envy of the world brought our debt as a percentage of GDP from 121 percent in 1945 to 33 percent in 1980.
Erskine Bowles is right. We can't get out of our current debt crisis with growth alone. But I will tell you most certainly that we will not get out of it without growth.
And so we have to choose wisely in what we invest in, in when we invest, and in how we invest; and in what we cut, and when we cut, and how we cut--which we must do--and in how we increase revenues, when we increase revenues, and from whom we get those revenues.
Why not invest in retrofitting our buildings when we have so many in the building trades out of work, sitting on the sidelines, and knowing that we can recoup that investment in energy savings within 3 to 5 years? Let's find creative ways of financing that, such as PACE financing, which lets families get a loan from their local government and pay it back on their property taxes. This is how cities pay for streetlights and sidewalks. It adds value to homes; and when the family moves, the loan stays with the property. We should also create incentives for banks to lend to small businesses for retrofitting commercial buildings.
There is a company in Minnesota called McQuay that makes heating and air conditioning systems for commercial buildings. They are actually supplying the system for the new World Trade Center, and their systems are so energy efficient that they pay for themselves in 3 to 5 years through energy savings.
They have been taking out loans from banks since they are a large creditworthy company, but then they give out loans to customers who install their systems. It is a win-win, because they are selling more units and putting people back to work, and their customers are actually making money in the long run through energy savings. McQuay has a good model, and we should be figuring out how to encourage others to do the same thing.
Why not cut our Defense spending when $100 billion in cuts have been identified by our service chiefs at Secretary Gates' request, and when cost overruns on our weapons systems are absurdly high? The GAO recently revealed that when you add up the growth in costs of major Defense weapons systems over their original estimates, the total is over $402 billion.
Why not raise revenue by increasing taxes on the wealthiest in this Nation--those who have benefited the most from the economy in recent years--especially when we can look to the recent past and see that their tax cuts created virtually no jobs and contributed mightily to our deficit?
Only when the middle class is strong does our economy grow, because the middle class has always been the part of our society that creates demand. There are just not enough rich people to buy enough stuff. The middle class spends its money. But today, companies are sitting on trillions of dollars because there is just not enough demand. And that is because there is a lot of unemployment and because wages for the middle class have gone down over the last decade.
Creating a middle class is not an end unto itself. A strong middle class leads to strong consumer spending, and therefore to a strong economy and to national prosperity. The middle class is also where you get entrepreneurs and small businesses--it is the engine of our economy.
Why not invest in early childhood education when we know that the return on quality early childhood education is up to $16 for every $1 spent? We know that children who have had quality early childhood education are less likely to need special education, less likely to repeat grades, they have better health outcomes, and that the girls are less likely to get pregnant as teenagers. We know children who have quality early childhood education are more likely to graduate from high school, more likely to go to college, more likely to get a good job and pay taxes, and much less likely to go to prison.
My friends on the other side say that we must cut the deficit for our children's sake, and I agree. But why then are such a disproportionate amount of the cuts aimed at programs that help kids? As I said, one of every five children in America lives in poverty, and even more in rural areas.
But the Republicans want to cut Head Start and Early Head Start. We currently serve about 40 percent of children who qualify for Head Start and less than 4 percent of children who qualify for Early Head Start. Do we really want to cut that? Do we really want to cut Pell grants? The Republican budget slashes Medicaid. About 50 percent of the recipients of Medicaid are children. We know we are going to have to make shared sacrifices to get the budget under control, but do we really think that sick kids should make those sacrifices?
You know, immediately after this last election, Republican leadership said that their No. 1 priority was seeing to it that Barack Obama is a one-term President. They didn't say their No. 1 priority was getting Americans back to work, or educating our kids, or even balancing the budget.
Their No. 1 priority was winning the next election. But I don't think that is what Americans want. The American people want us to get to work to solve problems, to improve their lives. We don't have to agree on how to do that but they sent us here to work together. If the time between elections just becomes about jockeying for the next election, then what in the world is the point of getting elected in the first place? I thought we were here to work together constructively in the interest of the American people.
Now the Senate Republican leader is saying that raising any new revenues is off the table; that he will not vote to raise the debt ceiling if part of our compromise on the budget going forward involves any tax increase on anyone, no matter how wealthy they are, no matter what their income.
I ask all my colleagues, for the good of the country, to step back from the brink, to step back from brinksmanship on this debt ceiling. Let's not panic. We are going to be on this planet for a while. Let's have some confidence in ourselves to do this in a smart thoughtful way so that our children will say, ``Well, they might not have been the Greatest Generation, but they were a Pretty Good Generation.''
I suggest the absence of a quorum.