Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the order for the quorum call be rescinded. Mr. President, we will soon be voting on a continuing resolution to continue funding the U.S. Government for 3…
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the order for the quorum call be rescinded.
Mr. President, we will soon be voting on a continuing resolution to continue funding the U.S. Government for 3 weeks. I believe that will reduce spending over that 3-week period by $2 billion a week, which is far less than the debt we are incurring in each of those weeks, but it is significant progress. Add it to the $4 billion we did in the previous 2-week CR.
I will support this continuing resolution. It keeps us on track to achieve a $61-billion reduction in Federal spending this fiscal year, which ends September 30. It is important we take action. It is a matter that is important financially to American business interests and foreign business interests that may be thinking of investing in the United States and people who might buy our huge number of Treasury bills that we sell each week and are purchased by people all over the world. They want to know if we have our house in order, if this is a safe place to invest their money.
We need to do something now. When our majority leader, Senator Reid, proposed not $61 billion but that we reduce spending only $4 billion throughout the rest of this fiscal year, I said then and believe now that is only a product of being in the Washington bubble. We are in denial of the reality of the crisis we face. I do not want to talk down the American economy. I believe the American worker is willing to work, is competitive, but we cannot burden that worker with excessive debt.
How does that happen? I am ranking Republican on the Budget Committee. We have heard testimony from Drs. Rogoff and Reinhart, who have written a book called ``This Time is Different.'' Their study of nations that have gotten into trouble financially and have had debt crises over the last 20 years shows a consistent pattern of problems.
One of the things they concluded is that when a nation's debt reaches 90 percent GDP, the economic growth in that country slows down. The median was 1 percent, but the average was more than 1 percent. Some countries had more than a 1-percent drop in growth. Japan has a higher debt than we do, I think the highest in the world. They have an interesting way they have been able to finance it, but they have had no growth for quite a long time. It is consistent with the Rogoff-Reinhart study.
Does that apply to us? We are about 95 percent now. Our debt is surging. By the end of this fiscal year, the numbers are that our debt will be 100 percent of GDP, well above the figure. One might
ask: What does 1 percent growth mean? If we are looking for growth of 2 or 3 percent, 1 percent is half our growth.
What does it mean in other terms? Experts have said that a 1-percent reduction in growth amounts to 1 million jobs lost.
I believe we are beginning to feel a negative pull on our bounce back from this recession as a result of growing debt right now, not years down the road as some people have been saying and predicting; that we are going to have a debt crisis down the road. I hate to say it.
Erskine Bowles, President Clinton's Chief of Staff, was appointed by the President to cochair the debt commission with Senator Alan Simpson. They testified before our committee last week, and this is what they said about the nature of the crisis we face. They spent weeks studying the numbers, hearing from experts all over the world, about our debt situation. They reported that we have to take action now.
In a joint statement they presented to the committee, they said this is the most predictable financial crisis this Nation has ever faced. In other words, they said if we do not change course, it will be the most predictable crisis we have faced.
Senator Conrad, our Democratic chairman, who is very concerned about these issues, asked them when. Mr. Bowles, who himself is a successful financial businessman and financier, said about 2 years. Senator Simpson contributed to the discussion and said: I think a year.
I hope we do not have some sort of debt crisis in a year. The fact that has even been discussed should be a cause for alarm. Let me say, in January, Alan Greenspan said we could have a debt crisis in 2 to 3 years. Moody's has discussed downgrading our debt. They have warned they might downgrade our debt in less than 2 years. We need to take action now. That is the deal. That is the matter.
We had some fine new Members elected to the House and the Senate last Fall. The American people believed those they elected would come to Washington and help us get off this course of wild spending. I believe the American people get it. They are not in a bubble. They know we cannot continue this way. They are prepared to take some action, and we need to do it. If we fail to take action that is noticeable and significant, it would send the wrong message around the world. They would say: Even with this election change that occurred in Washington, you are still not changing your course.
I urged the President before the State of the Union Adderss to talk straight to the American people about the threat we face, and he did not do so. The first 37 minutes of his speech was about new investments he called on us to make. Investments, of course, is new spending. He never once took a few moments to explain to us the kinds of things Mr. Erskine Bowles said or Mr. Alan Greenspan said about how we are on an unsustainable course. He never even acknowledged we are on an unsustainable course. He never warned us that we are going to have to tighten our belts, just as Governors are doing, as mayors are doing all over America. When we do not have money, we do not have money. If we do not have money, we have to change course.
I was disappointed, as were some of our Democratic colleagues, that we have not had the kind of national dialog and ask the American people to receive somewhat less from the Federal Government than they have been.
Why do we have to do it? Because we are facing a crisis in good leadership, which means the leader has to tell the people what the threat is, what the danger is, and how we are going to get out of it.
I truly believe one of the highest duties of any Member of Congress or any leader in America is to protect the American people from foreseeable dangers. As Erskine Bowles said, this is the most predictable crisis we have ever faced. It is heading to a bad end-- hopefully, not as soon as they warned us it could happen so we will have time to get off this course. That is important.
The President said in his State of the Union Address that we will be living within our means. He did a radio address after he submitted his budget, and he said: We are going to be living within our means. My budget puts us on a track to prosperity. We are going to continue to invest, and we will be living within our means and paying down the debt.
Mr. Jack Lew, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, says we are going to be living within our means and paying down our debt. Basically, they are saying: Don't worry. You guys are getting all hyped up. We can still invest. We can still spend. Don't worry about it.
What do the facts say? We do not need political talk; we need a fact- based budget. We need fact-based discussions. The facts are we are not going to be paying down our debt in 10 years under the President's budget. We are not going to be living within our means.
What is the situation? His own budget is four volumes. In that plan it calls for spending levels that increase the total gross debt of the United States from $13 trillion to $26 trillion. Under that plan, the lowest single annual deficit that occurs is over $600 billion. The highest deficit President Bush ever had was 450. That was too high. The lowest he is projecting in his own numbers is 600.
Even more troubling, in years 7, 8, 9 and 10 of his budget the deficits are going up. It is almost $900 billion in the 10th year. How could they say that? How could the President look the American people in the eye and say my budget is going to cause us to live within our means? How could Mr. Lew say that?
I examined Mr. Lew in the Budget Committee. I asked Mr. Lew, the lowest deficit you are going to have is $600 billion. How is that living within our means? He said: Well, there is something called a primary deficit. I said: What? He said: The primary deficit. I asked: Well, what is that? He said: Well, you don't count interest.
You don't count interest. When a family living in tight times today is trying to squeeze their budget, do they not count their interest on their credit card or their mortgage payment? How can they say they are balancing the budget, living within our means and not count interest that we pay on the debt? All of the money we borrow we have to pay interest on. We pay interest on $14 trillion. If it doubles to 26, we will pay interest on that. Last year, our interest payment for the United States of America was about $208 billion in interest payments alone.
Under the President's budget, the interest payment in the 10th year is $844 billion, according to his numbers. This is the fastest growing item in the entire budget. They assume an interest rate at 3.5 percent. I don't think and most experts do not believe that is going to remain so low. This is historically very low. Historically, we average about 6 percent on our debt. So if it went from 3 percent to 6 or 7 percent, instead of $840 billion I guess it would be $1.9 trillion in interest payments. And that could happen if we don't get off this unsustainable path we are on.
I am frustrated about this. People say: Well, this CR business is only discretionary spending. It is only a small part of the overall budget. You shouldn't even attempt to fool with it. You are wasting your time. No, no, no. We are going to have to take every part of the budget and see what we can do to contain the growth in spending, or even reduce spending, to eliminate some spending that is totally worthless because we get no real benefit from it. We need to make our government more productive, lean, and efficient. We can do that.
We cannot continue on this course. The House of Representatives has passed a proposal, a continuing resolution, that would reduce spending through the rest of the fiscal year a total of $61 billion. We should accept that. That is not too much. It is probably not enough, but it is enough to count.
For example, it is a $61 billion reduction in baseline U.S. spending. If you reduce the baseline, even if next year you start going up 1 percent, that 1 percent will be on a baseline that is $61 billion lower. We have calculated the numbers, and over 10 years, that $61 billion, plus the interest you don't have to pay, will save the United States Treasury $860 billion. That is a good step. That does make a difference. People who deny it makes a difference are wrong. It is not going to savage
anybody, unless some of these programs aren't working, and then they ought to be zeroed out. So I want to make that point clear.
How much is the discretionary spending--the money we spend here on education, on highways, on things of that nature--defense? Discretionary nondefense is about 12 percent of the budget; 60 percent or so is in Social Security and Medicare, and they are growing at an unsustainable rate. We need to take steps now to save Social Security, to put Social Security on a path so our seniors can rely on it and our young people can have confidence that when they become senior citizens, they can rely on it also. It is not that difficult to do.
This has been talked about by editorial boards around the country, by experts and economists and professors and Congressmen and Senators for years. But the crisis is getting more real and acute now. Yet what did the President do? He said not one word about that in his State of the Union or his budget. His budget doesn't do anything about any of the entitlements. You can't cut discretionary spending and you can't cut entitlement spending. In effect, they are saying nothing is to be challenged. I know that is not a rational approach to the crisis we are in today.
We have to work together. We have Senators together right now-- Democratic and Republican--who are trying to figure out a way to make some alterations in the trajectory of our debt in America and to put us on a sound path. Democrats and Republicans are meeting--Senator Warner, Senator Chambliss, I think Senator Manchin and others are talking. They want to see us do something historic. I think we need to. But on the Budget Committee, Budget Director Lew said the President wasn't for any change. He took the view that Social Security doesn't have a problem; nothing is going to happen until 2037. Well, what happens then? It falls off a cliff, and that is assuming you count this paper that is supposed to be backing it up. But the money has been spent. We need to get Social Security on a sound course, and we can do it.
We have to work on Medicare, which is even more problematic and more dangerous. We need to get it on a sound course. We need to get our heads together on discretionary spending and contain our growth in discretionary spending, all of which is possible to do. All of that is possible to do. We have the opportunity to put our country on a road to prosperity and growth. We will need to do some things such as reforming our tax laws to more fairly raise revenue in a way that allows more growth to occur, because we need to have growth. We have to create jobs. We need to redo our energy policy and produce more American energy and hold the cost of energy down, not drive up the cost of gasoline and electricity on the American people.
Momentum, I think, is on the side of this. When Majority Leader Reid offered his pittance of a reduction--a $4 billion reduction--10 Democratic Senators defected. They didn't vote for it because they didn't think it reduced spending enough. We had three Republicans who didn't support the $61 billion. They thought it ought to go lower than that. So the momentum out there is to go further than we are going.
The American people get it. Our expert testimony from witnesses tells us that. We have seen Bill Gross, of the PIMCO Bond Fund, the largest fund in the world, say they are not buying any more U.S. Treasuries, basically calling on the United States to reduce our debt. He didn't have confidence in it. We need to get busy and do some things. It is going to have to be done in a bipartisan way, there is no doubt about it.
There are two choices, I believe, truly. One is a tougher road, but it is the road to prosperity. It can return us to the kind of leadership role in the world we need to be in. The other road is the road to decline. Nothing comes from nothing. Nothing ever could, Julie Andrews sang. There is no free lunch. Debts have to be paid. Interest has to be paid on debts. This is reality. We don't live in a fantasy world. The time to stand and be counted is now.
This $61 billion reduction in spending through the last 6\1/2\ or so months of this fiscal year is a statement. It is actual, it is real, it will reduce the total indebtedness of the United States by $860 billion over 10 years. We could do more, but Congress being what it is, slowly coming around to the challenge, we are not ready probably to do more. But we need to do $61 billion. We do not need a compromise halfway, some $30 billion reduction in spending. I do believe that would show weakness on our part--a lack of resolve--which would not be a good signal for our fragile economy today.
We need to meet the test, to face the defining challenge of our time, and that is spending. It is the dominant issue facing America today, no doubt about it. It dwarfs every other issue. I wish it weren't so. When I came, in 1997, I guess we were still fighting over spending then, trying to contain spending, but by 1998 and 1999 we were in surplus. We balanced the budget. They started in 1994 and made some tough decisions. It is going to be harder this time. The hole is deeper, the demographics and the systemic threats to our financial order are greater than it was, there is no doubt about it. But we can do it.
I think it is our time to fulfill our duty--our duty to our Nation and to the American people to preserve America's heritage. We are standing at a time in this country where we have to make a choice. Let's make this choice. Let's do this 3-week extension, take it down $6 billion more over that 3 weeks, and then let's come back and do $61 billion and celebrate the first real step in decades to contain growth and spending. Let's promise this is the beginning. Let's promise that we are going to review all our spending, and we are going to do it in an honest, aboveboard way, fact based, not politics, not smoke and mirrors, or fantasy budgets, but real numbers facing real threats.
If we do that, I think the American people will be supportive. They were supportive in the last election. I believe they will be supportive again.
I thank the Chair for his leadership on these issues in the Senate. I think there is growing consensus here that progress must be made.
I yield the floor.
Mr. President, I suggest the absence of a quorum.