Mr. President, first, I want to offer my congratulations to Bryn Stewart. That was a beautiful speech about the public service that he has contributed to Wyoming and to the U.S. Senate. I thank my…
Mr. President, first, I want to offer my congratulations to Bryn Stewart.
That was a beautiful speech about the public service that he has contributed to Wyoming and to the U.S. Senate. I thank my colleague from Wyoming for that.
Kentucky
Mr. President, I also want to say that over the weekend, I had the opportunity to travel to Kentucky.
I live in Ohio so Kentucky is our neighboring State. I went down to help some of our neighbors get back on their feet after these devastating tornadoes. It was very emotional, partly, obviously, seeing people's lives just be devastated--houses ruined and family heirlooms lost and, unfortunately, some loss of life--as the tornado hit some of the residential areas in Western Kentucky, but also another emotion, which is gratitude for the people who came forward as volunteers to help, neighbor helping neighbor.
As always happens when you have one of these natural disasters, the only silver lining is that people do come together in providing water and food and help getting people out of their homes through urban search and rescue teams, like Ohio Task Force One, that went down to Kentucky chain-sawing trees down so that people can get their cars out and try to repair some of the damage, get their lives back together.
It was a terrible thing to see the devastation but also a wonderful thing to see people coming together to help one another to get through a tough time.
Inflation
Mr. President, I am on the floor today primarily to talk about the legislation that has been proposed by the Biden administration and by the Democratic leadership.
This is the 11th consecutive week that I have come to the floor to talk about this because, every week since it was introduced 11 weeks ago, I have wanted to talk about what is actually in this legislation, how it would impact our communities, how it would impact our economy.
So, today, I am here to talk a little about some of the new numbers we have in terms of inflation and how this would impact inflation and some of the new numbers that just came out since last week from the Congressional Budget Office, which is the nonpartisan group up here that analyzes these legislative efforts, and what they are saying about what the cost of this bill will be.
So I think it is worth having this conversation before Congress--the Senate and the House--votes on this massive tax bill, a massive spending bill that could fundamentally change the way our economy works and, I think, put us in a very difficult position as it relates to inflation and the economy and our debt and our deficit.
Democrats want to push this through under what is called reconciliation, which is a special procedure here in the Senate where, instead of getting the normal supermajority of 60 votes, they could do it with only 50 votes and then have a tie-breaker be the Vice President in her role as President of the Senate. So I have concerns about the substance of the legislation but also in terms of the process.
Wouldn't it be great if this could actually go through committees and the committees could vet some of these proposals? Last week, I talked about some of the tax proposals, for instance, which I think have inadvertent impacts on pensions--defined benefit plans, in particular-- inadvertent effects on businesses that aren't going to be able to write off expansions and plant equipment, which we want them to do.
Maybe some of these things are inadvertent, but it also has a change in the tax policy where it says that the State and local tax deduction would no longer be capped at $10,000. This is a Federal deduction people are able to take on their State and local taxes, but they would raise that to $80,000, that cap.
The impact of that and a couple other things in the legislation means that 70 percent of millionaires--people who make over $1 million in income a year--would get a significant tax cut under this legislation; whereas, if you only make 30,000 bucks a year, only 30 percent of those people get a tax cut.
And that is in the first year. In the second year, it goes down to about half that. And in the third year, it goes down to 10 percent and below. So it really is skewed toward providing tax relief for the wealthy at a time when, obviously, we are concerned about those people. Given the economic uncertainty, given the COVID issues, given the natural disasters, given the other issues that we face, you would want to help those who need the help the most. That is not what this legislation does.
Again, if it had gone through the process of the committees of jurisdiction--in this case, the Finance Committee, the Ways and Means Committee--I don't think we would be seeing this. All these issues are ones that could have been ironed out had it not been jammed through on this reconciliation process without any committee consideration.
So I am upset that Congress is being thwarted from doing its work, and I think, if we had, it would be a very different piece of legislation.
This plan is also going to hurt, in my view, with regard to inflation. We are looking at the highest inflation we have had in decades. I think everybody knows that now, not because they are looking at the numbers, which I will talk about in a second, but because when they go to the grocery store, they are paying a lot more for a hamburger or for milk or for bread; or when they go to fill up their car with gas, they are seeing the prices at the pump.
I filled up my pickup truck--I took it to Kentucky on the trip I just talked about--and it was almost a hundred bucks to fill it up. That is a lot for people who are on a fixed income or young people or someone who has to commute to work. That really takes a bite out of your budget. But that inflation is across our economy right now, and it is tough on people.
The work shortages that we see, the workforce shortages, the supply chain delays, the inflation--all of these things are problems in our economy right now. All of them get worse, in my view, if we do it the way the Democrats propose because, by adding more fuel to the fire, more stimulus spending--in this case, trillions of dollars--you are going to stimulate more demand in the economy. And inflation happens when demand outstrips supply. So you have a lot of demand for something, but you don't have the supply for it, and it raises inflation.
And that is exactly what many of us predicted would have happened back in March of this year when Congress did the same thing--$1.9 trillion. A lot of it was stimulus spending. And people said, ``This is going to cause inflation,'' and, sure enough, it did. It wasn't just me and other Republicans. It was some Democrats as well.
So that trend of rising inflation, which has made things so costly and expensive for so many people in my home State of Ohio, shows no sign of slowing down. Late last week, the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index, or the CPI, rose by 6.8 percent over the last 12 months. That is the biggest year-to-year inflationary increase in 39 years--39 years.
And last month, the number for inflation--1 month alone--was 0.8 percent. So get on your calculator and do the math: 0.8 percent in 1 month. Do that times 12 months, and you end up with inflation of 10 percent on an annualized basis. That is just from last month, if we just extrapolate that out over the year.
Ten percent inflation? For those who lived through inflation in the late 1970s, early 1980s, you know what that does to your economy. So the notion that the Biden administration has that this is going to be temporary or transitory, that is just not true. And, by the way, the Federal Reserve has now said that is not true. It is going to be here for a while.
Although we are hearing a lot of stories these days about businesses paying higher wages to attract workers, average wages went up by 4.3 percent last year. So with all of the labor shortages and the increase in wages, wages went up 4.3 percent. Again, inflation went up 6.8 percent in the same 12-month period.
So this is why, if you are getting a raise at work and you feel pretty good about it--getting the raise--but then you go to the grocery store or go to the gas pump or buy some clothes and you don't feel so good about it, it is because your inflation is higher than your wage gain. So unless your wage gain is over 6.8 percent over the last year, on average, you are losing out. And that is a real problem.
By the way, in 2020, as we got into the COVID-19 crisis, we had a very different economy. In February of 2020, we had the 19th straight month of wage gains of 3 percent or more, and inflation was 1, 1.5 percent. So people were feeling: Hey, I am making more money, and it is not being eaten up by inflation.
That is not the case now, unfortunately. Wages are not keeping pace with these higher prices, and people are finding that their paychecks just don't go as far as they used to.
We can see by some data that just came out from a survey of consumer expectations from the New York Fed that an increasing number of people are reporting that they are struggling more financially than they did a year ago. That is from the Fed, the New York Fed. And fewer are expecting their financial situation to improve by this time next year. That is not a great feeling as we approach the holiday season. That is a real concern.
The other report we have had since I was on the floor last week is with regard to the Producer Price Index. We have talked about the Consumer Price Index. The Producer Price Index is about businesses: What are businesses seeing in terms of inflation on business-to- business purchases, for instance?
The new number out this week on that is the largest increase year over year since we started keeping track of this number, which was about 11 years ago, 12 years ago. So the Producer Price Index is also going up, and the Consumer Price Index is already up.
What this means is that that Producer Price Index number is eventually going to be reflected in higher consumer costs--right?-- because businesses are going to pass that along. So this is not a good week because we just got that data, and I was very sorry to see it because what you want to see is the Producer Price Index going down;
meaning that, in the future, the consumer prices are going to go down too. Instead, we are seeing a situation where it is likely that prices are going to keep going up.
Again, Republicans warned of this when the $1.9 trillion was spent, mostly to stimulate the economy, saying this is going to overheat the economy--more demand, less supply, partly because of COVID. In other words, COVID made it harder to get supply in. If demand goes up, you are going to have inflation. And sure enough, that is what happened.
Larry Summers is the former Secretary of the Treasury under President Obama, former Chair of the national Council of Economic Advisers. Actually, he was Treasury Secretary for President Clinton and Chair of the National Economic Council for President Obama, a respected economist. He, too, warned of this. So it is not just a partisan issue, not Republicans and Democrats. It is the reality of what is happening when you increase demand much more than supply can handle. You get inflation. So it is not a surprise that it happened. Unfortunately, his prediction came true: overheated economy, demand outstripping supply. We found ourselves in this spiral of rising prices.
That was 9 months ago. I think it is fair to say that the inflation that people said was transitory is going to stay here for a while. That is a real cause for concern.
So why are we doing this? Why are we, again, spending trillions of dollars? And what is the cost?
Something that happened since we talked last week is that the true cost of the Build Back Better plan is now being revealed by this group on the outside from the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School, by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, and by others, but now by the Congressional Budget Office itself.
So the Congressional Budget Office is the nonpartisan group up here in Congress that tells us what the fiscal impact is, what the spending impact is, what the taxing impact is, what the economic impact is of legislation.
And the number that has been cited for the cost of this Build Back Better legislation is $1.7 trillion over 10 years. That is a lot. That would make it the second most expensive bill ever passed by Congress, the first being the $1.9 trillion we talked about in March.
But it is worse than that because it turns out that even those staggeringly high costs we just talked about--$1.7 trillion--miss the mark based on the analysis that just came out. Just as prices for everyday goods and services are going up, the estimates we are seeing for the true cost of Build Back Better are increasing with every analysis we see.
These studies have shown us that because the legislation sunsets programs, if you actually assume those programs are not going to be stopped after--let's say with the child tax credit--1 year or 2 years or 3 years, but you continue it through the life of the legislation, it is going to be much more expensive.
So people tell me: Well, Rob, that is fine, but the child tax credit, as an example, only costs $185 billion--only.
And I say: Well, actually, if you take it out over time, that becomes trillions of dollars--like $1.6, $1.7 trillion.
They say: Well, we are just going to do it for 1 year.
Well, that is just not what happens here in Congress. The history of this is that once we put a program like that in place, it continues to live on year after year.
Let me give you the best example of that. You have probably heard a lot of Democrats saying over the past few weeks: We have to pass this Build Back Better legislation by the end of this year.
Why? Because the child tax credit--it is already in law based on the March legislation--is expiring. So there is a tremendous amount of pressure, right? They are saying you have to extend it.
Well, that makes our case. So you have to extend it this year? That means, I assume, you have to extend it next year and the next year and the next year and the next year.
And anybody who says that they don't want to extend it--on the other side of the aisle--I would like to hear from them because I don't think they are going to say that. And so, if you assume it is extended, then you have this huge cost. The spending is going to continue to increase, and the program is not going to sunset. The total cost of the bill goes from $1.7 trillion that we talked about to about $4.5 trillion based on the Penn Wharton study I talked about.
Under the Congressional Budget Office analysis, it actually goes even higher--even higher--to $4.9 trillion. And when you add interest on the debt, it goes actually over $5 trillion.
So it is difficult to understand these numbers we are talking about because they are so huge. You know, $4.5 trillion is $4,500 billion. We have never spent this kind of money before. I mean, if it is $5 trillion, that is the size of our budget, more or less--the whole budget for the entire country for a year, in one bill.
Now, people say: Well, it is paid for. Well, the 1.7 part, you could argue, is paid for--although we can talk about that, too, because some of the things in the pay-fors are not sustainable in my view, including, again, the impact on pension funds or the impact on being able to write off investments or the impact of the SALT issue. So there are lots of things that need to be worked out on the spending side but also on the revenue side.
So let's assume it is $1.7 trillion, but that is not going to cover it because you have these expenses--like the child tax credit--that will continue.
So I am glad that my colleague Senator Lindsey Graham, who is the ranking member of the Budget Committee, a top Republican, and Senator John Cornyn, another colleague, asked the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office to do their analysis, because they showed that, without the sunset, the 10-year cost of the child tax credit goes from $185 billion to $1.6 trillion.
They also found that, in line with another study by the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation, the revenue lost would be $1.6 trillion, either taking us further into debt by $1.6 trillion or requiring new tax hikes.
So that is just one part of the legislation. It would be the costliest expenditure by Congress in our history, but it is just one part of the legislation. The hundreds of billions in funding Democrats are proposing as an example for childcare under a new approach to childcare, which we can also talk about, the substance of that, but it is going to hurt a lot of our State the way they are doing it. But that will end up costing double the written amount over the next decade if they remain in place, for example.
So all in all, the Congressional Budget Office looked at 18 supposedly sunset social spending programs and found that they will end up costing the taxpayers nearly $3.5 trillion over the next decade when they get extended, if they do. Again, the history around here is that they would. So, you know, the price tag goes up and up and up.
When you add that spending to another program in Build Back Better, the CBO says the total spending in the legislation, again, goes to $4.9 trillion; $4.9 trillion is bigger than the economy of any country in the world, with the exception of the U.S., China, and Japan.
Again, these numbers are just astronomical. But think about that. It is bigger than the entire economy, the entire GDP of any country in the world except for the three of us: the United States, China, and Japan.
We are seeing record debts and record deficits right now, as you know. The Congressional Budget Office says that the American people can expect Build Back Better, if the sunsets don't hold, to add another $3 trillion to the Federal deficit.
So if we continue to debate this in Congress, which way should we go, we just ought to know these numbers. We ought to analyze them. And again, if people on the other side of the aisle are going to say we don't want to have the child tax credit be extended, we need to know that. But my sense is, just as they want to extend it right now, they will want to extend it next year and the next year and the next year.
So is this the right time to do that? Is this the right time to add that kind of stimulus to an economy that already is overstimulated, where you have more demand chasing not enough supply, do you want to add more to the demand side? That is what is going to happen if we pass this.
I hope that we will not make that mistake, and I hope that we will slow
down and look at these numbers and analyze where we are in terms of our spending. We just extended the debt limit. No Republican voted for it, but all the Democrats voted for it, and that is all they needed to be able to extend the debt limit because it was under a special 50-vote margin. That debt limit was just extended for basically 1 year. So after the elections next year, $2.5 trillion more debt. We had to make room for $2.5 trillion more debt, in 1 year.
It is clear that a lot of Americans are nervous about that. When you look at the polling data, it says that. But just talking to people-- over the weekend, I was also in southeast Ohio, part of our State that is very rural, a lot of people are hurting in terms of the economy because they don't have access to broadband and so on. So we are talking about how they feel about the economy, and there is a lot of nervousness. They feel the surging inflation. They are paying more for everything.
And, you know, common steps, people are saying, Let's just slow down and think about this. They may end up thinking at the end of the day they are for some of this, but they don't want to move forward precipitously and make a mistake and have this add more inflation and more problems for our debt and deficit for our kids and grandkids. They are saying, Let's do the right thing for the country and put the brakes on this.
And if we do put the brakes on this unprecedented spending and taxing, it will help us to avoid some of these economic challenges that we otherwise are going to be facing. If we go ahead with it, it is going to make the economic challenges like inflation even worse.
My hope is that we will put the brakes on, and these economic challenges will not worsen, and instead, we can get the country back on the right track.
I yield the floor.