Mr. President, Joe Sewall, David Huber, Harry Richardson, Hoddy Hildreth, and Sherry Huber--those names mean nothing in this Chamber, but they meant everything in Maine in the 1970s. They were the parents of the environmental movement in…
Mr. President, Joe Sewall, David Huber, Harry Richardson, Hoddy Hildreth, and Sherry Huber--those names mean nothing in this Chamber, but they meant everything in Maine in the 1970s. They were the parents of the environmental movement in our State. What do they all have in common? They are all Republicans.
I rise tonight in puzzlement as to how this issue became a partisan one. It is a scientific issue. Light travels at 186,000 miles per second. That is science. That is not a partisan or debatable issue. The science on this question is definitive.
I would not call myself a denier, but I was a skeptic until several years when I encountered a chart, which I will show in a large version later this evening, that talks about CO2 in the atmosphere for the last million years. Yes, it varied over time between 150 and 250 parts per million, but in the 1860s, at the dawn of the fossil fuel age, it started to go up, and now it is at 400 parts per million. That number has not been seen in this world for 3 million years. The last time we were at that figure, the sea level was 80 feet higher.
We are playing with the future of this planet. We have to do something, and that is why we are here.
Facing challenges is hard. The bigger the challenge, the harder it is to face it because facing a significant challenge always involves risk, always involves a little uncertainty, always involves effort, always involves cost, always involves inconvenience, and always involves change. The most profound observation I ever heard about change is that everybody is for progress and nobody is for change.
In the 1930s, Europe and particularly England faced a challenge. They faced a challenge that was to their very survival. But for almost the entire decade of the 1930s, England didn't face that challenge. They did not act, even though the data was overwhelming, even though the facts were compelling, even though their greatest parliamentarian, the greatest parliamentarian in English history--at least recent English history--continuously warned them. Winston Churchill spent a good part of the 1930s warning his country about the dangers of the rise of Nazi Germany. But people didn't listen, and they didn't listen for much the same reason I think people aren't listening now--because it is hard to take on a new challenge. It is hard to take on something that will have a cost. It is hard to take on something that will entail risk. But ignoring warnings has consequences. In the case of the 1930s in England and ignoring Winston Churchill's warnings, the consequences were 55 million people dead. Most historians believe Hitler could have been stopped in 1938, 1939, but instead of facing the challenge, people said it was too expensive; it was too inconvenient; it was too much of a change. They were exhausted from World War I.
That was perfectly understandable, but the consequences were catastrophic.
That is where we are today. We are facing a daunting challenge. For all of us speaking tonight, this isn't easy. We can outline the problems, but the solutions aren't easy, and the solutions aren't going to be free. The solutions are going to involve change; they are going to involve investment; they are going to involve innovation; and they are going to involve facing up to a challenge that is very serious.
There are lots of ways to think about this. One way is this example: All of us have health insurance. We all have homeowners insurance--even simpler than health insurance. Homeowners insurance means basically we are insuring our home against burning down. What is the risk of our house catching fire? One in two? No. One in 365. Will your house burn down once a year. No. One in 3,650? I suspect the risk is somewhere around 1 in 10,000 or 20,000. But every family in America is paying an
average of $800 or $900 a year to insure against a 1 in 10,000 risk. But we are being told in this body--in this country--that we can't take steps to insure ourselves against a risk which 98 percent of the scientific evidence says is a dead certainty. I don't want to take that risk.
People say: You are wrong, Angus. This isn't true. It isn't going to happen. Maybe I am. Maybe we are. Maybe that 98 percent of climate scientists who have spent their lives studying this issue is wrong. I hope they are. I hope I am. But what if we are not wrong? The consequences are almost unimaginable.
Although I have a long history of involvement in environmental matters in Maine, I was a climate skeptic. I heard all the arguments about it, and I said, I don't know whether this is really true. We can argue it both ways. Then, about 5 years ago, I ran across a little chart and the chart to me answered the whole question. Here is the chart.
This chart shows a million years of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. We often hear carbon dioxide naturally goes up and down in the atmosphere. Well, yes, it does. That is what these figures show. But for 900,000-plus years, it ranged between 160 parts per million to about 250 or 275. That is the range. Then all of a sudden, we get up to the year 1,000, and it is still in the same higher range. Then right here, 1860, when we started to burn fossil fuels in large quantities, and there it goes. It goes to levels that we haven't seen on this planet for 3 million years. The last time we saw 400 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperatures were 12 to 14 degrees warmer and the oceans were 60 to 80 feet higher.
This isn't politics. This isn't speculation. These are actual measurements based on the Greenland ice cores. This is what the CO2 concentrations were, and here we are at the beginning of the industrial revolution.
This chart, it seems to me, answers two of the three basic questions on the subject. The first question is: Is something happening? Yes, inevitably. We just can't look at this and say this point and this point are so different, and this is a million years. Something is happening.
The second question about this whole issue is this. Do people have anything to do with it? This is when we started burning stuff. This answers that question. Of course, people have something to do with it. It is just too weird a coincidence to say all of a sudden, when we started to burn fossil fuels in large quantities and release them into the atmosphere and increase the CO2, it just happened to happen at the same time. One fellow I know said it is volcanoes. I am sorry. We didn't have an outburst of volcanoes in the 1850s and 1860s. We had little fires all over Europe, all over America. We had steel mills. We had the beginnings of the industrial revolution. We started to burn coal and later oil. This is what happened.
I mentioned there were three questions. No. 1, is something happening? Yes. No. 2, do people have anything to do with it? Yes.
The third question is, So what. CO2 is going up in the atmosphere. So what. What does that mean? This answers that question. This is the relationship between CO2 and temperature. The red line is carbon dioxide and the black line is temperature, an almost exact correlation. If the CO2 goes up in the atmosphere, and we are at about 500,000 years, we can see CO2 goes up, temperature goes up; CO2 goes down, temperature goes down. So this is the answer to the third question, so what. The answer is temperature.
One of the things that worries me, and the reason I am here tonight, is some research that has been done at the University of Maine. We have a climate study center at the University of Maine. I was there a year or so ago, and I was meeting with them. It was one of these meetings where we are going around and we go to the university, factories, and schools and meet with people and they give us briefings, and I was listening to a briefing on climate change when a word crept into that discussion that I had not heard before, and the word was ``abrupt.''
Climate change, I always assumed, happened in a very slow, long, historic, geological time kind of way. That is not the case.
These are two lines on this chart. The yellow line is temperature; the red is the extent of the ice in the Arctic. The point of the chart is, look at these vertical lines. That is in a matter of a few years. It is not a matter of 1,000 years or 10,000 years; it is a matter of a few years. It is as if someone throws a switch, and I do not want to be around when that switch is thrown, and I certainly do not want to be the cause of the switch being thrown.
Abrupt climate change, that is what keeps me awake at night; that this is something we are sort of assuming is going to be the next generation's problem or the generation after that or by 2100. Who knows about 2100? Who thinks about 2100? Well, it could be a lot sooner than that.
If things such as this cause a melt-off in the Arctic ice and the Greenland ice sheet, and it changes the currents in the Atlantic or anywhere else in the world, for that matter, everything changes.
Without the Gulf Stream, England, Scotland, Ireland, and Scandinavia are essentially uninhabitable. I do not know about the Presiding Officer, but I have always thought of England as a being to the east. It is not to the east; it is way to the northeast. England is on the same latitude as Hudson Bay. The only reason it is of temperate climate is because of the Gulf Stream. If something happens to the Gulf Stream, Northern Europe is almost uninhabitable.
These changes can happen abruptly. Again, maybe I am wrong. I hope I am wrong. But what if I am right? What if the science is right. Are we willing to take that risk? Do you want to be the person who says to your grandchildren: We saw this coming. All these people talked. They talked all night in the Senate. But we decided not to do anything because it would be expensive and it would disrupt some of our industries and might cost us a few jobs, which, by the way, would be replaced in other industries.
Do you want to be the person who says: Well, we had this warning but, no, we didn't feel we had to do anything. I do not want to be that person.
Does it have practical effects? It does have practical effects. There is not a theoretical discussion. This is not just a science lesson. This has effects in all of our States. We have heard them here tonight--about the water temperature in the streams in Minnesota, the forest fires in Colorado, the drought in the West, in California, that is rendering millions of acres potentially unproductive that have been the breadbasket of America.
In Maine, it is the lobster, the iconic product of the coast of Maine. What is happening is the ocean is getting warmer. As the ocean is getting warmer, the lobsters do not necessarily--they are not too unhappy about it getting warmer, but the center of gravity of lobsters is going to go where the water is colder, and that is what is happening. That is what the lobstermen have told me.
The center of gravity of lobstering in Maine used to be right off of Portland in what is called Casco Bay, where I live. But over the last 10 or 15 years, it has slowly moved northward. Now the lobsters themselves have not moved northward, but the heavy catch has moved northward.
Here is a dramatic picture of what has happened. In 1970, here was the hotspot for lobster: south of Massachusetts, south of Rhode Island, off the end of Long Island. This is where they were catching the most lobster. Here is where they are in 2008. They are up along the coast of Maine, headed for Nova Scotia. This is the center of gravity of the lobster industry.
People around here may not know what is happening in the climate, but the lobsters of Maine know it, and the green crabs and the shellfish and the moose and the deer and the trees, they know it because that is what is changing in my State.
There is another thing that is happening that I do not think has been discussed tonight; that is, that the ocean is becoming a giant sink for all this carbon that is in the atmosphere. When the atmospheric carbon dioxide goes into the water and is dissolved in the water, it turns into something called H2CO3--carbonic acid. Carbonic acid attacks shellfish. Shellfish cannot form their shells because the ocean is becoming acidic. This is a recent observation, and it is the result of the massive load of carbon that we have been putting into the atmosphere.
Here is another practical result, and the Presiding Officer talked about this in terms of Boston. These are charts that show what happens if the sea goes up varying levels--6 meters, 1 meter. One meter is shown in dark red on the chart. Look what happens to Virginia Beach in North Carolina at just 1 meter, and that is predicted in the next 100 years as the sea level goes up. Then we look at all these communities: New York, Boston, Savannah, and Charleston, Virginia Beach, Miami, Louisiana. Then we can multiply this all around the world. I do not know the percentage, but a very significant percentage of the world's population lives within about 40 miles of the coast--everywhere in the world.
These are real consequences, and these are the kinds of consequences that are unbelievably expensive and unbelievably destructive.
There is another piece of evidence, which is the sea ice extent. We are now talking about the famous Northwest Passage actually existing. Ships can now go from the Atlantic to the Pacific across the Arctic because the ice is disappearing.
Here it is, as shown here, just from 1979 to the present. This is evidence. This is data. This is irrefutable.
Here is essentially a chart of the Arctic sea ice. The red line was the extent of the ice, the average place the ice was in 1979 through the year 2000, and here is where we are in 2012. As it continues to shrink, several things happen: the ocean levels rise, the acidification of the ocean continues, and there is a threat of a change in the ocean's currents, which would be catastrophic for many parts of the world.
Another example is the Muir Glacier in Alaska. These two photographs I have in the Chamber were taken from exactly the same spot. In 1941, here is the glacier. In 2004, here is the lake. The glacier is gone. That has changed, and that is a change that is the canary in the coal mine. That is the change that tells us something is happening and we ignore it at our peril.
What are the consequences? What are the consequences? I have talked about the economic consequences: forest fires, floods, lobsters, agriculture, all of those people living in low-lying areas. Multiply Superstorm Sandy by two, three, four, five, and we are talking billions of dollars of economic costs; we are talking about lost jobs. Something like 30 percent of the businesses that were wiped out by Superstorm Sandy never came back. They never came back. To each one of those businesspeople, to each one of those insurers that insured those businesses, to those families it is gone forever. That is the result of these superstorms we are seeing more and more frequently.
An enormous economic risk, an enormous cost. Yes, it is going to cost something to prevent this, but it is going to cost us either way. The old ad I remember when I was a kid: Pay me now or pay me later. In this case, it is pay me now or pay me more later.
But there is a second level of risk that is almost as significant as the economic risk; that is, the national security risk. We have had panels of retired judges and admirals who have looked at this issue. Global climate change is a major national security risk. Why? Because it is going to lead to friction, to riots, to famine, to loss of agricultural land, to loss of homes, to territorial disputes about water, and that increases our risk.
I am on the Armed Services Committee and Intelligence Committee. I have spent the last year and a half listening to testimony about Al Qaeda and what we are doing to confront Al Qaeda. Part of our strategy is to fight them and to kill them, but we cannot kill them all. It is like the Hydra. You cut off one head and two come back. What we have to do is get at the basis of why young people are joining an organization such as that and change their lives. This climate change, which threatens people's livelihoods, particularly in the developing world, is a grave threat to our national security because it generates the very people who are dangerous. The most dangerous weapons of mass destruction in the world today are large numbers of unemployed 20-year- olds who are angry and dispossessed and have no hope and are willing to take up arms against any authority they can find, and unfortunately that may be us.
This is a national security risk. Water, I predict, will be one of the most valuable commodities of the 21st century. It is going to be something people fight about. It is going to be something people get into wars about. Water is an enormously valuable commodity that global climate change threatens.
Finally, on the question of what are the consequences, it is an ethical risk. It is an economic risk, a national security risk, but it is also an ethical risk. Another aspect of this that has struck me that is not strictly related to climate change but is related to our consumption of fossil fuels is what right do we have in two or three generations to consume the entire production of fossil fuels that the world has produced in the last 3 or 4 or 5 or 10 million years.
It reminds me of a dad sitting down at Thanksgiving dinner, where all of his children are sitting around the table, mom brings in the turkey, puts it in front of him, and he says: This is all mine. None of you get any. I am going to take it.
None of us would do that, but that is exactly what we are doing. We are saying this oil, this precious oil that is an amazing commodity, can do all kinds of different things, we are going to burn it up in about 200 years. It takes millions of years to make it, and we are going to burn it all up. I think that is an ethical risk.
OK. I hate talking about problems and not talking about a solution. What are the solutions?
I believe in markets. I believe in free markets as the best way to allocate goods and services. But the market, in order to be efficient, has to be accurate, and it has to accurately reflect the true costs and price of the commodity. Right now we are not paying those costs. The cost of climate change is not factored into the cost of consuming fossil fuels. If you factor it in, then you have a free market and people will make their decisions based upon their economic situation and also their commitment to the environment, but the real costs are not factored in.
I am old enough to remember when this debate took place in the 1970s, when I worked here. But the debate then was about environmental law itself, and the debate was characterized as payrolls versus pickerel. I can remember that term, ``payrolls versus pickerel.''
The idea was that if you clean up the water and clean up the air, it is going to put people out of business, we are going to lose jobs, industry is going to run away, we can't possibly do it. Well, a man named Edmund Sixtus Muskie from the State of Maine did not believe that. He was raised in a paper mill town on the Androscoggin River--one of the most polluted rivers in America. They used to say it was too thick to drink, too thin to plow. Muskie did not believe it, and Muskie stood in this body and fought for the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act.
Here is the amazing thing. I was asked to do some research and to do a presentation about Muskie's environmental leadership. I went back and looked at the record. I could not believe my eyes, particularly in light of where we are here today--tonight--in this body and in this city. The Clean Air Act passed the Senate unanimously. In the midst of the debate, Howard Baker, the minority leader, the Republican leader, gave his proxy to Muskie. Can you imagine that happening today? It passed unanimously. We could not pass the time of day unanimously in this body. Yet it happened.
That brings me to a question that really puzzles me. How did this become a partisan issue? How did it come to divide us so cleanly along environmental lines? This discussion tonight is important, but it is all Democrats and people--Bernie and I, the two Independents--Senator Sanders, the Senator from Vermont, and I, the two Independents--no people from the other party. I do not understand that. The leaders, the giants of the environmental movement in Maine when I was a young man were all Republicans.
When Ed Muskie got the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act passed through this body, it was with the support of the overwhelming majority--in the case of the Clean Air Act, all of the Republicans, including very conservative Republicans. Senator Buckley
from New York supported the Clean Air Act. I do not know how or why this became a partisan issue. Maybe it was because it was invented by Al Gore. I do not know. But somehow it has become this divisive partisan issue. It should not be. This is our future that is at stake. This is our children and grandchildren's future. This should not be a partisan issue.
In my experience, if we can develop a common understanding of the facts, we can find solutions. They will not be easy, but they are there. Right now the problem is that we do not have a common, shared understanding of the facts.
So what are the solutions? The market is one. Innovation, as Senator Kaine from Virginia said, is another. There are ways to use electricity and generate electricity through innovation that will be much cleaner, support just as many if not more jobs, and help prevent this tragedy from befalling us.
By the way, it does not mean we cannot burn coal. Coal is an abundant resource that we have in this country that is loaded with energy, but unfortunately it is also loaded with CO2 and other pollutants. So I think part of our commitment should be intense research on how to use coal efficiently, effectively, and cleanly. That should be part of the deal. We are not trying to put any region of the country out of business or control people's use of valuable resources, but let's use them in the most efficient and effective and environmentally safe way. That can be done in part through innovation.
I was a lobbyist in Maine 30 years ago. One of the things I lobbied for was to get rid of pop-top beer cans. The Presiding Officer probably remembers the first ones. You grabbed the ring, pulled it off, and it became a little razor. People threw them on the ground. You would step on them. They were dangerous.
I remember going to the lobbyist for the bottlers and I said: We want to get rid of those things.
He said: There is no way. Our engineers have looked at it. It is impossible to make one that you do not have to tear off.
Well, lo and behold we passed a law banning those pull-off tabs, and the industry found a way to do it safely and in an environmentally sound manner. Sometimes you have to help people find a way.
The final piece when it comes to solutions is that this has to be international. I agree with my colleagues who say we cannot just do it here. We cannot just do it here. If we just do it here and nobody else in the world does it, if China and India do not do it, then it is not going to be effective. We will have imposed costs on our society that will simply make their businesses more competitive if they are ignoring these externalities, these realities of price. It has to be done through international cooperation.
I think the moment may be right. From everything I understand about the air quality in China, they may be ready to discuss this. They may be ready to take steps along with us. But we are going to have to be the leaders. We are going to have to show what can be done and how it can be done. We are going to have to innovate our way out of this. But we have to do it with our international partners. Movement of air does not respect boundaries.
When Ed Muskie was promoting the Clean Air Act, he would take a globe--I do not think we are allowed to take props onto the floor of the Senate--he would take a standard globe--imagine I have it here--and everybody used to have these in their library. On a globe is a coating of shellac to make it shine. That coating of shellac is the same thickness in proportion to the globe as our atmosphere is to our real globe. In other words, it is very thin and very fragile. We destroy it and threaten it at our extreme peril.
I can boil it all down to one simple concept. This is a Maine concept. It is the Maine rototiller rule.
For those of you from urban States, a rototiller is a device that you use to turn the ground in your garden. I guess it is a homeowner's plow. It turns the dirt. Not too many people own rototillers, but enough do so that you can borrow one when you need it for that one day in the spring when you are going to put in your garden.
The Maine rototiller rule is very straightforward: When you borrow your neighbor's rototiller, you always return it to them in as good shape as you got it with a full tank of gas. That is all you need to know about environmental policy. We do not own this planet. We have it on loan. We have it on loan from our children, our grandchildren, and their grandchildren. We are borrowing it from them. We have a moral, ethical, economic, and security obligation to pass it on to those people in as good or better shape than we got it. That is what this issue is all about.
I deeply hope we can put aside the partisanship and the arguments, agree on the facts, and then have a robust and vigorous discussion of solutions. It is not going to be easy. It is not going to be free. But it will make all the difference in the world to the people to whom we owe our best work--the future of America and the world.