Will the Senator yield? In addition to what Senator Thune said, there are several people who said they want to go into closed session first and address issues having to do with my amendment and his amendment before a vote. Mr. President,…
Will the Senator yield?
In addition to what Senator Thune said, there are several people who said they want to go into closed session first and address issues having to do with my amendment and his amendment before a vote.
Mr. President, it was my understanding that we had an informal arrangement that we would go back and forth. I would like to be recognized.
Madam President, I do want to be recognized for the purpose of further explaining my amendment No. 4833 and also to respond to the Senator from Massachusetts. Before doing that I would ask if the Senator from South Dakota has any responses he wishes to make at this time, and then I wish to keep the floor.
It is my intention now--I made my presentation earlier on and a similar presentation yesterday and the Senator from Massachusetts responded. I wish to respond to his responses to clarify some of the things that might be a little unclear.
First of all, the Senator from Massachusetts said every Senator on our side and, most importantly, the unbelievably experienced negotiators who put this treaty together, have made a lifetime of trying to understand these kinds of relationships and the ways in which you adequately verify, and they
wanted to expand, which I appreciated, how qualified these people were, but here is the problem we have and I think it was articulated by the Senator from South Dakota. We have a constitutional responsibility. We take an oath of office to support the Constitution, and one of the things it is up to us--not to anybody but us--to provide for common defense. Article II, section 2 of the Constitution specifically gives us not just the right but the obligation for advice and consent, and quite often we talk about all these smart people who have agreed with this. That leaves one group out. That is us. We happen to be the ones who are accountable to the people through our election.
The Senator from Massachusetts also said that the treaty itself, talking about the amendment, my amendment, he said he opposes an amendment to the treaty itself which we all understand now after two votes that it would kill the treaty, essentially saying that if you amend the treaty it is dead.
I think we need to stop and reevaluate what our obligation is, not just the constitutional obligation, as the CRS has outlined in a study of the role of the Senate in the treaty process. Amendments are proposed changes in the actual text of the treaty. They amount therefore to Senate counteroffers that alter the original deal agreed upon by the United States and the other country.
If the Senate gives its consent to New START with amendments to the text, the treaty is sent to Russia for its approval with the amendments. Both the Russian Duma and the United States Senate have a constitutional right to change portions of this treaty and it is up to them to do. So this reinserts it back into the process. I feel that is exactly what our Founding Fathers wanted us to be doing in these treaties and that is what we are trying to do.
The third thing that was stated by the Senator from Massachusetts is, he was talking about the concept of the type one inspections and the type two inspections as a new one. Well, it is a new process because type two inspections are inspections on formerly declared facilities. Obviously in the START I treaty we didn't have formally declared facilities. They came as a result of the first treaty. Type one refers to inspections of ICBM bases, submarine bases, and air bases to confirm the accuracy of declared data on the number and types of deployed and nondeployed warheads located on ICBMs, SLBMs, and heavy bombers. So I would say that type two inspections weren't even addressed in the first treaty.
The Senator also said we said we ought to send this back ``but it doesn't rise to that level in my judgment.'' Now he talks about the level of significance. All these amendments are significant. Each one of us who is an author has a little bit of bias because we have studied a little bit more in our particular area. I can't think of anything that is more significant than verification. The interesting thing that was brought out by the Senator from North Dakota was General Chilton's support. I am reading from the report right now. It says General Chilton's support for the New START level was predicated on no Russian cheating or changes in the geopolitical environment.
Well, historically they have been cheating on everything. Let me go ahead and reread what I said before. We had the meeting, the convention in 2005, and then again 5 years later in 2010, came out in May or June of this year, and in that one, talking about the biological weapons convention in 2005, the State Department concluded that Russia maintains a mature offensive biological weapons program and that its nature and status have not changed. That is what they said in 2005. Now 5 years later the new report came out and the State Department report states the Russian confidence-building measures since 1992 have not satisfactorily documented whether its biological program was terminated. Therefore, they are saying the same thing 5 years later, so they lied 5 years ago and it appears that they have not done--or they cheated, I should say.
Chemical weapons the same thing.
In 2005, the State Department assessed that:
Russia is in violation of its Chemical Weapons Convention
obligations because its declaration was incomplete with
respect to declaration of production and development
facilities.
Then, in 2010, 5 years later, the State Department again stated there was an absence of additional information from Russia, resulting in the United States being unable to ascertain whether Russia has declared all of its chemical weapons stockpile and all of its chemical weapons development facilities.
If we are predicating all that on General Chilton, who said cheating has all of a sudden miraculously stopped, this is a great reform measure, and I would like to see the evidence of it before we assume that is the case.
The Senator from Massachusetts also stated people responsible for verification of this treaty would never have been sent to the United States. This treaty would never have been sent to the United States if the treaty did not have adequate verification measures. So it talks about all these verification measures.
Then he says: It is the judgment of our military, our State Department, and our intelligence community that these measures are adequate.
That may be true with those who are currently answering to our President who strongly support this treaty. But if we look at the State Department and the military and the intelligence of the past, those people who have commented, James Baker, as I recall, Secretary of State, summarized that the New START verification regime is ``weaker than its predecessor,'' testifying to Congress in May of this year. I happen to have been there. He said the New START verification program:
. . . does not appear as rigorous or extensive as the one
that verified the numerous and diverse treaty obligations and
prohibitions under START I. This complex part of the treaty
is even more crucial when fewer deployed nuclear warheads are
allowed than were allowed in the past.
Insofar as the military is concerned, Richard Perle, former Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Reagan administration, stated on December 2, a few days ago, that:
New START has a very weak verification regime, one that
establishes a dangerous precedent and lowers our standards
for verification.
Here is the military weighing in.
He goes on to say that:
New START's verification provisions would provide little or
no help in detecting illegal activity at locations the
Russians did not declare, are off limits to U.S. inspectors,
or are hidden from U.S. satellites.
James Woolsey--when we talk about intelligence, I have a bias because James Woolsey is from Oklahoma. He was the Director of Central Intelligence from 1993 to 1995. He was adviser to the SALT I negotiations up through 1970, a delegate at large to the START and defense and space negotiations.
He stated, on November 15, that under this treaty, unlike the original START treaty, Russia is free to encrypt telemetry from missile tests, making it harder for us to know what new capabilities it is developing. There is no longer the requirement for permanent onsite monitoring of Russia's primary missile production facility, which under old START helped us keep track of new mobile missiles entering the Soviet force.
He goes on and on. That is agreed with by Paula DeSutter, former Assistant Secretary for Verification, Compliance, and Implementation at the U.S. State Department, who pointed out on July 12 that New START has glaring holes in its verification regime. New START is ``much less verifiable than the original START.''
I only say this because my friend from Massachusetts talked about the military, the State Department, and the intelligence community. One thing that is ingrained in our system is that we have a President who is Commander in Chief. He has a lot of influence over the State Department and the military. We have heard some very well respected people along those lines.
One of the arguments or rebuttals the Senator from Massachusetts had against my opening statement yesterday was that we have fewer sites now than during the development of the START I treaty. This is true. We do have fewer sites. An argument can be made--and most people agree with the fact--that if you have fewer sites, you need more inspections.
Former Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton stated, on May 3, that
``while [verification] is important in any arms-control treaty, verification becomes even more important at lower warhead levels.''
Brent Scowcroft and Arnold Kanter weighed in on the same thing in a joint statement:
Current force levels provide a kind of buffer because they
are high enough to be relatively insensitive to imperfect
intelligence and modest force changes. . . . As force levels
go down, the balance of nuclear power can become increasingly
delicate and vulnerable to cheating on arms control limits,
concerns about ``hidden'' missiles, and the actions of
nuclear third parties.
In May of this year, in front of the Foreign Relations Committee, former Secretary of State James Baker summarized that the New START verification regime is weaker than its predecessor, testifying to Congress that the New START verification program ``does not appear as rigorous or extensive as the one that verified the numerous and diverse treaty obligations. . . .''
He goes on to say it is more significant as you reduce your number of inspected facilities.
Further, the Senator from Massachusetts responded to me by saying they are going to demand the same number of inspections of our military bases, and we would have to be prepared to host them three times more in inspections. That is true. This is bilateral. Everything we are asking them to do, we to have do too. I like that idea. He went on to talk about the inconvenience, but my amendment applies to both the United States and to Russia. My amendment increases inspections for both sides, which will improve confidence, trust, and transparency. More importantly, it improves our ability to catch the Russians cheating and deter Russian cheating. I am fully aware we have to do the same thing the Russians have to do.
Furthermore, it was stated by the Senator from Massachusetts, in his response to my statement:
So I think it's one thing to ask our strategic nuclear
forces to do that ten times a year, or less than once a
month. It's another thing for them to be waiting for 30
inspections a year. We have 2 submarine bases, 3 bomber
bases, and 3 ICBM bases.
I might add, Russia has 3 submarine bases, 3 bomber bases and 12 ICBM bases. So we are actually not on parity there.
Quoting from a letter Secretary Gates sent this summer about whether the Russians would cheat on this treaty in a manner that would be militarily significant, he said:
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Joint Chiefs
commander, and the U.S. strategic command and I assess that
Russia will not be able to achieve militarily significant
cheating or breakout.
In other words, they are not going to cheat. This is this conversion I guess they have had.
Just for a moment, for a question.
I didn't hear the Senator.
I thought that is exactly what I said. I apologize for the misunderstanding.
Further, the Senator from Massachusetts made the statement that:
Our analysis of the N.I.E. and the potential for Russian
cheating or breakout confirms that the treaty's verification
regime is effective.
I have to always be a little suspect of what comes out of the N.I.E. I think all of us are. We don't take it as gospel. This is actually a true story. Back in the Clinton administration, it was August 24, 1998, I asked the question: How long will it be until North Korea has a multistage rocket? The response that came back in August of 1998 was 5 to 10 years. Seven days later, on August 31 of 1998, they fired a three-stage rocket.
I think we need to look at some of the intelligence estimates. They have been wrong in the past. When you are talking about something as significant as the issue we are talking about here, about the threat that is out there, then we have to be right.
Then, the Senator from Massachusetts quoted Condoleezza Rice. I actually agree with her. She said:
The new start treaty helpfully reinstates on-site
verification of Russian nuclear forces which lapsed with the
expiration of the original start treaty last year. Meaningful
verification was a significant achievement of Presidents
Reagan and George H.W. Bush and its reinstatement is crucial.
I agree with that. Obviously, she is not saying she supports this. She is saying she supports some kind of a verification. There is none today, so anything is better than nothing. I think that is what she is saying. She also agreed, in her next statement in the Wall Street Journal of December 7:
Still, there are legitimate concerns about New Start that
must and can be addressed in the ratification process. . . .
Implying that there is nothing wrong with having amendments.
Lastly, one of the statements the Senator from Massachusetts made in response to my comments was:
Finally, I'd like to point out that we addressed the
importance of this verification question in condition of the
resolution of ratification. That condition requires that
before New START can enter into force and every year
thereafter, the President has to certify to the Senate that
our national technical means, in conjunction with the
verification activities provided for in the New START treaty,
are sufficient to ensure the effective monitoring of Russian
compliance with the provisions of the New START treaty and
timely warning of Russian preparation.
Here is the problem I have with that. The President can only certify what he knows. Our intelligence experts are telling him what they are seeing in Russia. This amendment provides that the President will have more information. I would think, if that is the concern, we would want to give the President more information.
Lastly, I see the Senator from Arizona is here, and I know he wants to be heard. Let me mention one last thing my good friend, the Senator from Massachusetts, stated. He was talking about the fact that these are killer amendments. I think it is worth restating what we said before.
The CRS has outlined in its study on the role of the Senate in the treaty process:
Amendments are proposed changes in the actual text of the
treaty. [They] amount, therefore, to Senate counteroffers
that alter the original deal agreed to by the United States
and the other country.
If the Senate gives its consent to New START with amendments to the text, the treaty is sent to Russia for its approval with an amendment. That means we go back and forth and hopefully come out with a treaty that would be workable.
According to the 2005 and 2010 State Department reports on arms compliance, Russia has a bad habit of cheating on these agreements. In fact, I think we have covered that adequately at this time.
I yield the floor.