Mr. President, I think Senator Dole's idea of the kitchen sink approach is right on target. Maybe we will even find a way for the kitchen sink to somehow help us out here, but at least it is everything but the kitchen sink that Republicans…
Mr. President, I think Senator Dole's idea of the kitchen sink approach is right on target. Maybe we will even find a way for the kitchen sink to somehow help us out here, but at least it is everything but the kitchen sink that Republicans are suggesting is the answer to our oil crisis.
There isn't just one answer. That is why we don't agree with the Democratic bill, which is simply to deal with speculators and speculation. I am going to talk about that in a moment. First, to reiterate what Senator Dole said, Republicans support a broad-based, balanced approach to this problem that recognizes there isn't one silver bullet, but through a combination of things such as conservation, such as renewable energy, such as producing a lot more oil and gas which this country has. Also, if we will simply lift the moratoria that currently preclude us from exploring for more energy, deal with speculation to the extent it exists, as well as certainly nuclear power--all of these things together can help us work our way out of the crisis. Part of it is short term, part of it is medium term, part of it takes long term. We have to look at this as a long-term problem.
I shake my head at those who say: Well, that particular solution doesn't do anything for 3 to 7 years. My answer is, of course, I have never completed a journey I didn't start. If we had completed some of the things we started years ago, we wouldn't be in the crisis we are in right now. However, we are stuck right now with one bill on the floor. Unfortunately, it is not the Republican approach, which is a balanced, broad-based approach, and includes new production, but simply the limited approach of dealing with so-called speculators.
I wish to talk a little bit about why only focusing on speculation isn't going to produce one more drop of oil, it is not going to reduce the price at the pump, it is not going to solve the problem and, in the long term, could actually hurt, and I will try to explain why.
It is propitious that yesterday a report came out that supports what I am now saying. We didn't have anything to
do with the timing, but I say it is propitious because it helps to answer questions that people have been asking. For over 3 months now the regulatory body of our Government that looks at speculation, called the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has been testifying, and despite enormous pressure from the other side to point the finger at speculators, they have consistently said they don't think it is speculators. We believe it is the law of supply and demand, the fact that there is much more demand for oil than we are producing that is creating a problem.
Well, an interagency task force led by the CFTC and composed of staff from the Departments of Agriculture, Energy, Treasury, the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Federal Trade Commission all reaffirmed yesterday that:
Current oil prices and the increase in prices between
January 2003 and June 2008 are largely due to fundamental
supply and demand factors.
Furthermore, the report--and again I am quoting:
suggests that changes in futures market participation by
speculators have not systemically preceded price changes. On
the contrary, most speculative traders typically alter their
positions following price changes, suggesting that they are
responding to new information--just as one would expect in an
efficiently operating market.
The other side has ignored this CFTC analysis for a long time. I hope the new report will not be ignored, because what it illustrates is you are not going to solve this problem by trying to figure out a way to somehow regulate speculators. You have to deal with the law of supply and demand.
I tried to explain this to a younger person who was wondering what all of this debate was about, and this is the example I came up with-- or the analogy: These are investors, these so-called speculators, and what they are trying to do is to predict into the future what the price of something is going to be. Now, if they guess right, they can make money. If they guess wrong, they may lose money. They are researchers and they are looking at the best evidence they can. One of the things they look at is will there be more supply or more demand. Obviously, if there is more demand, then the price is going to go up. It is a little bit like the weatherman predicting the weather. The weatherman is a professional too and he looks at all of the research and he concludes that by this weekend we are going to have some rain. Now, he may be right, he may be wrong, but that is his job, to try to predict, and more often than not, he can predict it fairly accurately. What if we don't want rain next weekend? What if we don't think rain is a good idea? Are we going to muzzle or fire the weatherman and say: We don't want you to report this because we don't want the rain? Is that going to do any good? It doesn't do any good at all. If it is going to rain, it rains. If not, it won't.
If the prices are going to go up because Iran is rattling its sabers in the Persian Gulf, the prices are going to go up. If they don't, and the prices don't go up, it is not the speculators who make the price go up or down. The speculators are reporters. They are people who are trying to figure out what the price is going to be. They don't make it what it is; they are trying to figure out what it is going to be.
That is why the CFTC said they typically alter their position following price changes, reacting to new information. Again, it would be like trying to shut the weatherman up because we don't like the weather he is predicting. That is the role these speculators have. They are trying to predict the future and they actually help the market by setting a price that is useful to those who are trading in the market.
I appreciate that there are colleagues on the other side who are skeptical about this, but let me explain why I think it is unlikely that commodity traders actually push up the price of oil. Here is the explanation. They can only do this and drive up prices if they actually took physical possession of the product and then hoarded that, withheld it from the market.
But between 2003 and May of 2008, only about 2 percent of oil futures contracts actually resulted in physical delivery. Those are the utilities, airlines--folks like that.
If commodity index fund investors were, in fact, hoarding actual physical inventories to raise prices, one estimate suggests that they would need to fill storage tanks with more than 40 times the amount of oil currently held in the inventory at the Cushing oil terminal in Oklahoma where the West Texas intermediate oil contract is valued. Since we have not seen all of this frenzied new construction of oil storage tanks and facilities equivalent to 40 Cushing oil terminals, it is very clear that there is no hoarding occurring.
What is actually happening to supply today? Total oil stocks in the developed countries have been static. In other words, we have not been increasing the supply. A year ago, including strategic reserves, they amounted to about 4.1 billion barrels and today are at about the same level. Global demand, on the other hand, was 86 million barrels a day in 2007, while supply totaled 85.5 million barrels, creating a deficit of half a million barrels a day. As one would expect, prices are rising to reflect the fact that there is not as much supply as there is demand for the product.
I also think it is interesting that when you talk about speculators, you know the price has been going down in the last few days. I haven't heard anybody complaining that the price of oil is going down. If they are to blame for the price going up, maybe we ought to pat the speculators on the back for driving the prices down. Of course, they don't have that effect; I am being facetious. But who are these nefarious investors?
If you have a relative who is retired or a friend or someone who has a pension, you probably know a speculator. That is who is primarily investing in these kinds of funds. All investors want to diversify their portfolios to protect themselves against risk. You do that by purchasing as many different kinds of assets as you can, by investing in commodities. Pension funds and other institutional investors can protect beneficiaries like retirees from market downturns. In the current market, commodities are one of the few investments that have been actually generating positive returns. Under the legislation before us, if you declare these people bad investors or illegitimate speculators, you are going to be hurting regular investors in the market. I don't think we want to do that.
Interestingly, one of the pieces of legislation the Republicans have sponsored--the legislation called the Gas Price Reduction Act--is very similar to a bill introduced by my colleague from Illinois, Senator Durbin, who I think takes a thoughtful approach to speculation in the energy markets. Like our bill, his focuses primarily on increasing the resources available to the CFTC so it can continue to do its job and even do a better job of ensuring there is enough transparency in the system to enable it to continue to investigate and take action, if need be. With just a few modifications, I think the Durbin bill would be a good approach, as is the Gas Price Reduction Act, which Republicans have introduced, which strengthens the CFTC and makes sure it has the assets it needs to do the job we asked it to do.
In conclusion, I think everybody agrees that a stronger CFTC and additional transparency are good. I think we can all support that. It is part of that kitchen sink approach we heard talked about earlier, but it is only one small part of this. In no way are we going to see that approach drive down the price at the pump. As I said, it is little bit like the weatherman, these speculators. They find out what the price is and they, in effect, report it by their purchases or sales-- either one. But you don't improve anything by killing the messenger-- the speculator--any more than you improve the weather by shooting the weatherman.
As we proceed with the debate, I hope my colleagues will agree that while there may be a lot of good ideas--and one may be to strengthen the CFTC somewhat--that is not the answer to the crisis we face. It doesn't produce one more drop of oil or gas. At the end of the day, we are not going to be successful unless we find a consensus to enable us to produce more so that, along with using less, we can drive down the price of gas at the pump.