Madam President, picking up on the comments made by the chairman--and I fully accept his sincerity and his belief and his desire not to use reconciliation, but that is not, as he said, the position of the President, the Speaker of the…
Madam President, picking up on the comments made by the chairman--and I fully accept his sincerity and his belief and his desire not to use reconciliation, but that is not, as he said, the position of the President, the Speaker of the House, and the majority leader. I think we can assume if those three folks want reconciliation to be used, it is going to be used.
The practical implications of reconciliation are to devastate the constitutional prerogative of the Senate. The purpose of the Senate is to debate, discuss, and then amend items of major--major--policy.
The point is, reconciliation was put into this document, which we just received, for the purposes of muzzling the minority and making the Senate into having the same status, from a parliamentary procedure standpoint, as the House, where amendments are not allowed, where discussion is limited, and where an up-or-down vote is the only option given to the membership.
It is not only a terrible idea from the standpoint of the impact it has on the constitutional role of the Senate--which has been explained very effectively by people such as Senator Byrd as being a place where we are supposed to give the minority the capacity to make points and discuss matters of high policy and complex issues in an open forum with the ability to amend--but it is also a very difficult way to proceed on an issue of such complexity as health care reform or the climate change issue. The practical effect of using reconciliation will be that a bill will pass in this Congress, especially in this Senate, which the American people will know is not fair. They will know it is not fair because there will have been no ability for the minority or for people who disagree with the way the bill was written down at the White House to object to it or to amend it.
That type of legislation--major health care legislation, which affects every American--in order for it to be effective and in order for it to be accepted by the American people, needs to be perceived as, and really be, a fair document, reached through compromise, with the purposes of having all the different stakeholders at the table in order to discuss the issue. Regrettably, that is not going to happen under the reconciliation instruction.
I would note that even though the chairman has said--and I am sure he says this in all sincerity; I know he says it in all sincerity--he believes reconciliation will not be used in health care, it can be used and will be used on health care if the President and the majority leader and the Speaker of the House want it to be because that is why they put it in.
In addition, the idea it will not be used to raise the national sales tax on energy or a light switch tax, which is what is being proposed relative to the carbon tax, that also probably does not apply because the language of the bill is not binding. It simply says it is assumed. ``Assumed'' is a pretty weak--in fact, I cannot think of many words that are any weaker than the term ``assumed.'' It is assumed reconciliation will not be used in the area of climate change legislation, which means it can be used in the area of climate change legislation and probably will be if there is a determination by those folks who want to push that issue to do so.
It is ironic this bill--for which we have had two major votes in this Senate that said: Do not use reconciliation for the purposes of climate change--has in it such weak language on that issue, basically opening the door to using reconciliation for the purposes of climate change.
But the reconciliation issue, as serious as it is--and it is a serious issue because it goes to the purposes and the role of the Senate, in my opinion; and it also, in my opinion, will undermine the quality of the product produced in the area of health care or climate change--is not the core problem with this budget. The core problem with this budget is it spends too much money, it raises and creates too much debt, especially on our children's backs, and it raises and spends too much in the way of taxes. It is going to have a dramatic impact on the quality of life in this Nation as it plays out, as it is creating an unsustainable government, a government which neither our generation nor our children's generation, nor our children's children's generation are going to be able to pay for because it is going to increase in size so much and create so much in the way of deficit and debt, which will have to be paid for by our children and our grandchildren.
To try to put this in perspective, the budget basically raises discretionary spending by $1.5 trillion. We are going to hear some arguments from the other side of the aisle that: No, it does not do that. I will get to that in a second. They are essentially doing the Obama budget, the President's budget. The Director of OMB says there is virtually no difference between the two. They are 98 percent the same.
Essentially, they are raising discretionary spending by $1.4 trillion, mandatory spending by $1.1 trillion, and raising taxes by $1.5 trillion. In fact, it may be a lot more. They are making absolutely no savings in the area of spending accounts, which are critical to getting this deficit down and under control.
As we have mentioned on numerous occasions, but which is accurate and needs to be repeated, they double the size of the debt in 5 years, they triple it in 10 years, and they leave our children with a debt which is 80 percent of GDP--a public debt which is 80 percent of GDP.
The practical effect of having a debt that is 80 percent of GDP is that basically you have a nation which cannot sustain its obligations of debt. Today, our public debt to GDP is about 40 percent. If you wish to get into the European Union, your public debt can only be 60 percent of GDP. Under this budget, we are going to 80 percent of GDP. Latvia could get into the European Union, but we could not under this budget. That is what is going to happen. It is not a question of some sort of theoretical event. Under the spending program of this budget--and because the Congress is now totally controlled by the liberal side of the aisle and because the President is of that party--this is going to happen. It is not like it is not going to happen. It is going to happen.
What is driving these massive deficits? Primarily, it is massive spending increases. It is not too tricky an issue. Under President Obama's budget, and under the budget that is brought here by our colleagues on the other side of the aisle--although they tried to obfuscate the spending; at least the President is forthright about his spending--the spending of the Federal Government goes up dramatically.
This chart I have in the Chamber shows, historically, Federal spending has been about 20 percent of GDP. That is about what we can afford, historically, because our revenues are a little bit below that--19 percent of GDP. Under this proposal, the spending goes up radically in the next year, year and a half, and then it comes down as a result of the end of the recession and then it starts going up again. But it never comes down that much. It is 23 percent, 24 percent, 25 percent of GDP.
The problem is spending. The President is very forthright about this. He says he believes strongly--and his party, obviously, agrees with him--that you should significantly increase the size of the Federal Government, that you should significantly increase spending because if you increase the size of the Government, if you move the Government to the left, if you increase its spending, you create prosperity. He believes governments create prosperity.
Well, we do not agree with that. We think the way you create prosperity is having a government you can afford. That does not mean you eliminate Government. It means you have one you can afford. The proposal here is not for a government you can afford. It is just the opposite: a government we cannot afford, a government that is not sustainable. The way to create prosperity is by having a government you can afford and giving individuals the ability
to go out, make investments, takes risks, and create jobs. That is how you create prosperity--not by radically increasing the size of Government, radically moving it to the left, which is exactly what is proposed in this budget.
All this new spending leads to a massive increase in debt. In fact, one of the more interesting statistics--because I noticed the chart of my colleague from the other side relative to George Bush--this President dwarfs--dwarfs--what President George W. Bush did in the area of adding debt to our children's backs. It dwarfs that. If you take all the debt created in this country since George Washington through George W. Bush, President Obama's budget--and the budget which is being brought here by the other side of the aisle, if it were honestly scored and correctly accounted for, which would be essentially the same as President Obama's budget--doubles the amount of debt that has been put on our books by all the Presidents in all the history of this Nation. That is a tragic event for us, but it is an even more tragic event for the next generation.
I hear the other side constantly talking about what President Obama inherited. Yes, he inherited tough times. But the issue is not what he inherited. The issue is what he is going to bequeath, what he is going to leave the next generation. What he is leaving the next generation is an unsustainable Government. You do not have to listen to me to believe that. The chairmen of the Budget Committees on both sides of Congress-- on the House side and the Senate side--have said the budget, as presently proposed, is unsustainable in the outyears. Their budget is unsustainable in the outyears. Of course, they eliminate the outyears. They only did a 5-year budget. The President did 10 years. They took off the last 5 years so they would not have to talk about it. But it is not going away at the end of 5 years--still growing, still out of control. And it is unsustainable in their own terms.
Why is it unsustainable?
This chart shows the bottom line of why it is unsustainable. It is called the debt. To quote one of the sages and oracles around here: ``The debt is the threat,'' and the debt is just going up and up and up. It is an unsustainable situation.
What does ``unsustainable'' mean? That is some sort of term we throw out and people don't really catch on. What does it mean? It means the average American family at the end of the President's budget will have $130,000 of new debt--every family in America--that they will have to pay for as part of the Federal debt. It means the average American family will have $6,000 a year of interest payments on that debt for which they will be responsible. It means our children will inherit a government which will cost them so much that basically one of two things will happen to them: The economy will have to be inflated radically to pay off this debt, thus reducing the value of the dollar, eliminating savings of most Americans and creating an economic tax of inordinate proportions through massive inflation; or taxes on all Americans will have to be significantly increased at a rate that we have never seen in our history--other than in World War II--a rate which will essentially mean Americans would not be able to go out and buy a home. They would not be able to go out and send their kids to college. They would not be able to buy that car or live that lifestyle our generation had.
With the debt at 80 percent of GDP, it will mean for the first time in the history of our country, one generation will have passed on to another generation less of a nation--less prosperous, less strong, less opportunity. Totally unfair, but that is exactly what will happen. There is no way around this. Their budget locks us into this path. They themselves admit it is not sustainable, but that hasn't caused them to hesitate in going forward, and going forward in an aggressive way to expand the size of government and not pay for it and leave our kids with these massive debts.
I think it is appropriate at this time to also talk a little bit about the specific budget before us, which is the compromise between the House and the Senate budget because there is so much misdirection and disingenuousness about this budget that it is staggering. I give the President of the United States and his people credit, including Director Orszag and OMB. They attempted to send an honest and straightforward budget where they actually told us what was going to happen and what the costs were going to be. They put in one big gaming mechanism in the area of defense where they assumed $1.6 billion of spending, which everybody knew wasn't going to occur because they counted on the war costs going on for 10 years at their present levels--and we all know that is not going to happen--and then they claimed savings when those war costs were reduced. That was a fairly big item. But outside of that item, for the most part they gave us a budget that had integrity to it in the area of what it really was and what it was really going to cost.
This budget which was just sent to us is just the opposite. It is filled with gamesmanship, with stuffing spending under the rug so we don't notice it, with tools that avoid enforcement mechanisms, and with things such as the reconciliation instructions, which are a total adulteration of the congressional process when it is used relative to a public policy issue as big as the question of health care.
Let's note a few of the things they have left out of their budget to get to their alleged number. Remember, their alleged number is around $500 billion of deficit in the fourth and fifth years, and they pound their chest in great praise of themselves: Oh, we reduced the deficit to $500 billion. We have reduced it by half or three-fourths or whatever they want to claim. That is a little hard to sell to anyone with any common sense. When the deficit is run up to $1.8 trillion or $2 trillion and then brought down to $500 billion, that is not moving forward, folks; that is taking six steps back and one step forward and claiming that we are moving forward. We are still going backwards.
This budget goes backwards at an atrocious rate. It goes backwards at an atrocious rate, and it doesn't even tell us how much it goes backwards because they hide so much of their spending and their costs underneath the rug.
In the area, for example, of the doctor fix--we all know around here what the doctor fix is. The doctors in this country get reimbursed under Medicare, but we have this stupid, arcane rule around here which every year cuts the doctors' reimbursements by some amount, and now it is up to 20 percent. So every year we have to fix that. It is an expensive fix, but we do it every year, so we know we are going to spend that money to fix that arcane rule that ends up cutting doctors' reimbursements arbitrarily and unfairly.
The President's budget accounted for that. They accounted for that fix. Does this budget account for that fix? A very small part of that fix--a very small part of that fix. They leave out about $50 billion of that fix.
In the area of the alternative minimum tax, we know the alternative minimum tax wasn't supposed to apply to 20 million Americans; it was only supposed to apply to a small number of Americans who make a huge amount of money who could avoid paying taxes because they used tax avoidance mechanisms. But because of the failure to index that system, we now have 20 million Americans who will be subject to the alternative minimum tax if we don't fix it every year.
So what do we do? Every year we eliminate the application of that tax to those 20 million Americans because it was never supposed to be there to begin with. But what does this budget do? The President had the integrity to say he was going to do that throughout his budget. They were not going to assume the revenues from the alternative minimum tax because they knew for a surety that they were not going to get those revenues because every year we repeal that tax that applies to those folks. So what do they do in their budget?
Unlike the President, they don't account for all the alternative minimum tax. They score some of that revenue to themselves, taking advantage of that revenue. So instead of having the full cost of the alternative minimum tax in their bill, they have a small percentage of it--not a small percentage of it; about half of the cost accounted for in the bill. So they leave out a big number relative to the alternative minimum tax--about $70 billion--or about $80 billion, actually.
Then the TARP, the President asked for more TARP money. It certainly looks as though, when you listen to all of these things coming out of the White House, that they are going to need more TARP money. They put that TARP money in his budget; they leave it out. No, no TARP money. Well, maybe arguably they will not step up when the President asks them to and finance the issue of how we maintain our financial stability as a country relative to our financial system, but I suspect if the President asks for TARP, it will be allocated, and they should have scored it. At least the President did that.
Budgeting for disasters: We know we have disasters. The President knows we are going to have disasters. It appears the House Democrats and the Senate Democrats don't know we have disasters, or if they do, they decided not to budget for them because they left those numbers out in order to get to a better number on their deficit figure.
Health care reform: We know we are going to get health care reform. We are going to get it through reconciliation probably. They are going to ram it down the throats of this Congress. It is going to be their bill, and we know their bill scores at $1.2 trillion over 10 years. That is how it scores. The President had the integrity to say he would put half of that in here. He put in $650 billion of that cost into his budget. Does it appear anywhere? No, it doesn't. The Democrats in the House and in the Senate, they are not going to pay for health care at all. They put in this euphemism of a reserve fund that claims they are going to pay for it, when we know that is about as likely as their use of pay-go to enforce any spending around here.
The Make Work Pay tax credit, one of the premier items of the President, remember; we hear so much about how there is not going to be a tax increase on working Americans. Well, let's point out the fact that working Americans are going to get hammered pretty hard under this bill in the area of tax increases. First, they are going to get hit with a carbon tax, and a carbon tax is essentially a national sales tax on the production of electricity and the use of electricity. So if someone uses electricity in their home and turns on their light switch, they are going to get hit with a carbon tax.
The estimates of that tax are huge--huge. MIT did a study and said it is $300 billion a year, massive numbers. It is $3,000 per household if we take that study and just divide the number of households into the cost of the study. But independent of that tax, which doesn't appear anywhere in this budget, by the way, other than the fact that we know it is coming through some reserve fund, alleged reserve fund--they wipe out the President's Make Work Pay tax credit which he asked to be extended. They assume it would not be extended. Why? They know it is going to be extended because if the President tells them to extend it, they are going to extend it.
Why do they not put it in here? They don't put it in because they want to make their bottom line look better--look better. Then they actually skim down the middle-class tax relief. They have already scored the fact that they are going to tax wealthy Americans--alleged wealthy Americans--people making more than $250,000. They have already scored that and taken in that money.
Remember, most of those people, the vast majority of those people, are basically running a small business, and when we raise their taxes, what can't they do? They can't expand their small business. They can't add jobs. They are the engine of jobs in this country, by the way. So they are going to tax them, take their money away from them, put it into the Government, expand the size of the Government on the allegation that the Government can create prosperity, not small business.
Small business doesn't create prosperity as far as our colleagues on the other side of the aisle are concerned. No, no, they tax them. No, it is the Government that creates prosperity, so let's take more money from small business, move it over here and give it to the Government, and we will create prosperity for Americans.
Well, tell that to the person who is running the restaurant or running the garage or has a little software company who would like to use his money or her money in order to reinvest it so they can actually hire some more people and actually produce some value in this society, versus expanding the Government and creating more consultants and more people who are out there spending money in a very inefficient way, for the most part. But that is their policy. They won the election. Fine. But in winning the election, they also said they weren't going to tax middle Americans.
Well, look at the document. There is $180 billion of taxes on middle- income Americans which they do not define from where it comes. They simply say it is there. It is in there somewhere. Well, somebody is going to have to pay it. I think it is pretty safe to say it is going to be working Americans who are going to have to pay that $180 billion.
Why did they raise those taxes on working Americans? Why did they go back on their campaign promises, both in the Make Work Pay area and in the taxing working Americans? Well, they did it so they could make their bottom line number look better than the President's. At least the President had integrity. He had honesty. He came to us and said: I am going to extend Make Work Pay. I am going to have a middle-class tax cut. The other side of the aisle, the Democrats in the House and the Senate don't play by those rules. They play by the old rules of let's obfuscate, hide, sequester money and make it look as if we are saving money when we absolutely know for sure the spending is misrepresented in the bill and the taxes are misrepresented in the bill.
Then they have the temerity to use the phony 920 number. We all know 920 is a phony number. This is an account we set up, and when we claim savings, we put things into 920. In other words, I am going to increase spending on the XYZ program because I like XYZ. Well, where do I get the money for that if I am going to try to stay revenue neutral? I am going to get it out of account 920. I am going to spend $40 billion on the XYZ program and the offset is going to be account 920. Account 920 is an account that for all intents and purposes leads to a cut around here. It never leads to anything. It is not specific. It should come out of all accounts. It never happens, but they were a little off in the numbers they wanted to get to, so they did a 920 account in their budget to the tune of, I think, $40 billion or more--$48 billion.
All of that added up, and their real number, their real deficit numbers--the numbers that the President actually had, ironically--come out pretty close to the same. If we put back in all the stuff they have hidden under the rug, all the stuff they claimed they are not going to do, which we know they are going to do, we come back to deficit numbers which are almost exactly what the President's deficit numbers are.
There is no $500 billion deficit in the fifth year; it is $924 billion--if you put back in what they have hidden, claimed, obfuscated, manipulated, and generally tried to play games with around here.
So the President's numbers were accurate. He deserves credit for that. But this budget is a fraud on its baseline numbers. The reason this is important, besides the fact that there is actually $400 billion of spending almost every year that is not accounted for in this budget, is that the deficit, at these numbers, is around 5 percent of GDP. A deficit of around 5 percent of GDP and a public debt of around 80 percent of GDP leads you to being a country that is essentially unsustainable in its fiscal policy. It leads to a nation where the dollar loses its value, where our debt cannot be sold, where inflation is rampant, tax policy is basically so heavy that productivity is significantly stifled. They want to hide that number. At least the President had the integrity to admit that. The House and Senate Democrats have tried to hide that.
There is one other point that needs to be made here, because of the foolishness of the statements about how they are going to reinstitute a real pay-go. You know, I understand that the Blue Dog Democrats on the House side come from districts where their people expect them to be fiscally responsible. They have gotten on this banner of pay-go. They say we are going to assert pay-go. That will be the rules that guide us, and we will make sure all the
spending is paid for and the tax cuts are paid for. That is called pay- go. They say that as a mantra, to the point where it has become a term of art that implies you are fiscally responsible.
Look at this budget. My colleagues on the House side, who are Blue Dogs, claim to wrap themselves in the banner of pay-go, but they have no banner on their pole. There is no pay-go in this bill that will have a significant impact. In fact, the budget passed by the House and Senate put in place policies that would obfuscate pay-go to the tune of approximately $2.4 trillion. So on the face of this, they have ignored pay-go in their own budget. The ultimate insult is that the most significant public policy event we are going to do, probably in the term of anybody in this Congress, going back to the beginning of Robert C. Byrd's term, forward to the end of probably the youngest Member of the Congress who is serving today's term, which is the issue of rewriting the health care system of this country--17 percent of our GDP--the single most significant public policy event we will ever undertake--affecting every American everywhere, at all different levels, they formally, by law, waive pay-go in this bill for that exercise.
The Blue Dog Democrats in the House say we have the pay-go protection. Nobody who is being forthright with their constituents should go out and claim that pay-go is going to be a disciplining event. It isn't, hasn't been, and will not be--especially on the most significant issue we confront, which is the question of health care reform.
We have already talked, of course, about reconciliation and the affront that is to the Senate procedures and the constitutional role of the Senate. But it should be noted that using reconciliation also creates the situation where you can run through a massive tax increase, such as the carbon tax, and use it to pay for health care reform. Don't think that that is not being considered around here. Assuming that reconciliation won't be used in that area is an optimistic projection, because the majority leader has already said publicly that--and I am paraphrasing--isn't it interesting that the revenues from the carbon tax, or the national sales tax, light switch tax, pretty much is what we need in order to do the first few years of the health care bill as we see it.
So offsetting those two has obviously been an idea that has presented itself to the majority leader, and he wields significant authority here. He was able to keep reconciliation in over the objections of our chairman, allegedly, so I know he is powerful, because the chairman is extraordinarily powerful. When two powerful forces meet, if one of them survives, we know that one is really powerful. We know the majority leader is really powerful because he was more powerful than the chairman on the issue of reconciliation. So that is serious. We could use the carbon tax to pay for the health care, which is possible. I am not saying it is going to happen, but it is possible while using reconciliation.
That brings me back to my closing point, which I want to reiterate. It is about debt. It is about the fact that when this is all said and done, when all the smoke has risen, there will still be burning a massive explosion of Federal debt, an explosion so large, increases so dramatic, that I don't see any way out from under it with this budget. I am so concerned about where this takes our opportunities as a Nation. When you pass on--and it is not that far away because we are talking 2013, 2014, when we start getting big numbers. When you pass on a deficit of 4 to 5 percent of GDP, a debt of 60 to 80 percent GDP, where do we go as a Nation? Let's think about that for a minute. How does a nation get out from underneath that? Doesn't the world start to look at us and say, my God, has America lost its way? Is it no longer capable of disciplining itself and living in a responsible manner? When they say that about us, where does our Nation end up? Where do we leave our children?
It is a serious issue. Yet it is right here, and this budget is the point. If we pass this budget in its present form, with the outyear spending and outyear debt, I don't know how we get out from behind it.
I yield the floor.
Mr. President, I would like a few minutes. First, I know that one of the senior staff members on the chairman's side, Joel Friedman, is going through some very difficult health situations. I know he wanted to talk a little bit about that. We wish him the best. I know my staff, who works closely with him, feels great concern. The concern goes out to him and his family. We certainly wish him the best during this very difficult period dealing with this very difficult health issue.
Mr. President, let me, again, express the concern of my staff and myself for Joel and his family and wish him the best in this very difficult time and wish his family the best. We certainly hope he returns to good health soon.
Let me second the words of the chairman. This committee has contention. Even when the chairman produces a bill which is utterly incorrect and takes us totally in the wrong direction, I totally respect his efforts. I say that with some humor. The strength of this committee, besides the fact that it is a very influential committee in the Senate, is that we approach the issues in a forthright, professional manner. There is, on both sides of the aisle, a genuine and sincere and very successful effort to make sure the committee does its business in an orderly, professional, and cooperative way, which we hope brings credit to the Senate and the way the Senate should function. I believe it does.
It is, in large part, because the chairman sets that tone, as does his staff--Mary Naylor and the excellent people she has working for her; and on my side, Cheri Reidy, Jim Hearn, Allison Parent, and all the other folks who spend hundreds of hours, especially during this very intense period as we run up to the final passage of this extremely important piece of legislation. Their commitment, their professionalism is what allows this Congress to function well, and we very much appreciate it.
I could go on at some length on the issue of the budget, but I think people have probably heard enough of myself on this issue--although I wouldn't want to say that--and I know I would love to hear the chairman further discuss this, and he would love to hear myself further discuss it, but it is probably time to move it along and allow the chips to fall where they may. I would suggest we yield back all time and we vote at 5:30.