Of course. Mr. President, sometimes we like to say something so often and so vigorously that we believe it actually does what we say it will do, and I am afraid that is the case of the minimum wage…
Of course.
Mr. President, sometimes we like to say something so often and so vigorously that we believe it actually does what we say it will do, and I am afraid that is the case of the minimum wage arguments that have gone on since 1939. Perhaps it did in 1939, but I would suggest today that it doesn't do what we say it will do. I expect to vote for the minimum wage proposal the Senate produces if it includes the tax incentives and other measures that will help small business men and women pay the bill so they don't have to cut jobs as they compete with companies around the world, in China and in India and other places.
I will talk for a few minutes this morning about whether the raising minimum wage does what we say it does. We are doing a fairly extraordinary thing here. The Government is intervening in the marketplace. We don't ordinarily do that. We are fixing prices. We are fixing the cost of labor. Let's say we were in a class at the University of Massachusetts, University of Wyoming, or University of Tennessee in economics 101, and the professor walked in and said, Good morning, students. We have an interesting problem here. Let's pose this: The Government wants to intervene in the marketplace to fix the price of labor--something it doesn't ordinarily do. So the problem for the students to solve would be this: The reason for the intervention is to help, as the Senator from Massachusetts said, those who are on the lowest rungs of poverty. Working people on the lowest rungs of poverty will be our target. We want to help them have more money in their pockets.
Second, obviously we would like to do this in a way that most efficiently gets whatever money we have for this to them and doesn't miss the mark. Next, we want to do it at the lowest possible cost. We have lots of needs in the Government and in this country. Finally, we want to find the fairest way to pay the bill. If we are going to come up with this grand social objective that is presumably an objective for
the whole country, then who pays the bill? All of us? Some of us? A few of us? The richest of us? Who pays the bill?
So the challenge to the students is this: The Government is going to intervene. We are going to help, according to the Senator from Massachusetts, the lowest on the rungs of the economic ladder--people who are poor--people who are working. We want to do it in an efficient way. We want to make sure the money gets to the people we want to help, and we want to send the bill for all of this--hopefully as low as possible--to the fairest group of people who ought to pay for it.
I think if the answer came back to that question that what we ought to do was raise the minimum wage, the professor would give it a D or an F, or he might even send it back to the students who sent him that answer and say, Maybe you didn't hear my question. My question was: How do we intervene in the marketplace to help the people who are on the lowest rungs of the economic ladder? How do we do that in the least expensive, most efficient way, and with the fairest way to pay the bill?
Let's begin to critique the answer I posed that a student might have given to the professor in economics class 101. First, I think the professor might say, If you come back with a minimum wage idea, it is a very expensive way to go about it. A new study released by the Congressional Budget Office, which I ask unanimous consent to be included in the Record following my remarks--
A new study by CBO estimated that raising the minimum wage to $7.25, which is the proposal here, would cost $11 billion. A study done by the Employment Policies Institute put the cost at $18 billion. I ask unanimous consent that this study by Professors Burkhauser of Cornell and Sabia of the University of Georgia be included in the Record following my remarks.
So the student who suggested the minimum wage came up with a pretty expensive idea, an $11 billion price tag, or $18 billion, according to another study. But those estimates are about raising the cost of everyone's wages to $7.25 an hour. That is not how it works, because many workers are already paid a certain amount above the minimum wage and they will continue to earn more than the new minimum wage. So in effect, we are also legislating that a number of workers will receive a wage higher than $7.25, which means the cost is much higher than $11 billion or $18 billion. That is a lot of money. That is the first critique of the student's answer.
The second one: How well does this money hit the mark? We heard Senator Kennedy say repeatedly: Those on the lowest rung of the economic ladder. We have visions of women and children who are poor, particularly single mothers. Senator Kennedy has great passion for this issue. I have heard him many times over the last 4 years talking about how this is a women's issue; this is a children's issue; this is an issue for Americans on the lowest rung of the ladder who are in poverty. Well, let's see if that is true.
The studies show it is not true. Raising the minimum wage doesn't efficiently target the poor. Only one in five minimum wage workers live in households at or below the poverty line. So most of that $11 billion or $18 billion won't be going to the people who need it the most. It is more likely to be going, for example, to raise the salary of a teenager from a well-off family who has a part-time job at the mall. The Employment Policies Institute, the study I mentioned a little earlier by the professors from Cornell and the University of Georgia, said in their calculations that even less of the money would go to the workers in poor families--13 percent. Even if you look at households earning twice the rate of poverty, which was just under $40,000 in 2005, the Employment Policy Institute study found that less than half--43 percent of the minimum wage increase--would go to those families.
Let me go directly to the professors' study of the minimum wage. They say:
While the minimum wage is often promoted as a policy
designed to help the poor, minorities, and single mothers,
this analysis reveals that only 3.7 percent of the benefits
from a $7.25 hour Federal minimum wage would go to poor
African-American families.
So 3.7 percent of the benefit of this $18 billion-plus cost will go to poor African-American families. Only 3.8 percent would go to poor single mother families. What we are about to do, if we do it, is spend $11 billion, $18 billion--more than that, probably--with the stated objective of helping the poor, especially single women, especially mothers with children, especially minorities, and what the professors' study shows is that only 3.8 percent goes to poor single mother households.
Even more troubling, they go on:
The majority of working poor families, families who are
working but remain in poverty, receive no benefit from an
increase to $7.25 an hour.
The majority of families who are working but in poverty get no benefit from what we are about to do. These families don't benefit because they already earn more than the new Federal minimum wage and remain in poverty either because of a low number of hours worked or a large family size. Many of these individuals would benefit far more from an increase from the generous Federal and State earned-income tax programs.
A couple more statements from the professor from Cornell and the professor from Georgia:
Only 3.8 percent of the benefits from an increase to $7.25
an hour accrue to poor single mothers. One of the factors
causing this low percentage of benefits is the fact that the
majority of poor single mothers have hourly wages above this
level. In addition, only 18.5 percent of the benefits going
to single mothers will go to those in poverty, the majority
of benefits going to single mothers will go to those earning
more than twice the poverty line.
So the authors conclude that only 12.7 percent, or 2.3 billion of their estimated $18 billion cost of this increase will go to poor families, and only 3.7 percent goes to poor African-American families.
The authors say that the ability of the minimum wage to target poor families is weaker and decreasing over time. Contrary to the statements of its advocates, fewer and fewer low-wage employees are supporting a family on minimum wage, with only 9 percent of low-wage employees actually supporting a poor family.
I think the professor so far, in grading the paper of the student who suggested an increase in the minimum wage, would say, well, you came up with something that is hugely expensive, $18 billion-plus. And second, you came up with something that almost entirely that misses its target, only 3 or 4 percent to poor African-American families out of this huge amount of money? So far that paper is not doing very well at the University of Massachusetts, Wyoming, or Tennessee.
Then there would be another question that ought to be answered. Who pays the bill? The people who are to pay the bill under the proposal of the Senator from Massachusetts are the small businesspeople of America. They were described by the Senator from Wyoming because he used to own a shoe store. We stand in the Senate almost every day and talk about small business men and women and how they have health care costs, how they have taxes to pay, they have OSHA requirements to meet, they have Federal regulations added every year, and we say if we do not do something about this, more of these jobs are going to India and China, and we have a big outsourcing of jobs around the world.
Even if we, as a Senate, were to decide that we wanted to take the most expensive and perhaps the most inefficient way to help the people lowest on the economic ladder, why would we send the bill to the small businesspeople of America? Why wouldn't we send it to Wall Street? Why wouldn't we send it to the big corporations? Why wouldn't we send it to the taxpayers at large? Why couldn't all of us pay the bill?
We are very good in Washington, DC--I used to notice this as Governor of a State--some Senator or Congressman would come up with a good- sounding idea, pass it, hold a press conference, take credit for it, and come back down and make a statement at the Lincoln Day or Jefferson Day dinner about local control. What we do here all the time is come up with good ideas, take credit for them, and send
the bill to someone else. That is what we are doing here: we are not paying for this. We are not saying: That is going to cost $18 billion so let's raise taxes on Americans to pay for it. We are saying it will cost $18 billion-plus, but, no worries, we will just send that on to the small businesspeople of America, not the big businesspeople.
According to the National Federation of Independent Businesses, small businesses employ 61 percent of all minimum wage workers. That is a lot of mom-and-pop shops, family-owned businesses. Why should they pay the bill for this idea? One reason it might have been better to take this legislation through the committee that the Senator from Massachusetts and the Senator from Wyoming so ably lead is, we could have discussed this and there might have been a better way to reach this goal of taking whatever money we have--maybe a generous amount, maybe $18 billion--and sending it directly to people on the lowest rung of the economic ladder.
We might have talked about the earned-income tax credit. The earned- income tax credit isn't always popular on this side of the aisle because it has had some fraud in it, but the idea is a good idea. I first heard about it when Pat Moynihan was in the Nixon White House in the early 1970s. He suggested instead of welfare programs we ought to have a negative income tax. He said rather than set up a lot of Government programs that tend to break down the family and spend money in bureaucracies, if people are working in America, and they are not making much money, let's give them some money. We are a rich country. We have 25 percent of all the money in the world every year for just 5 percent of the people in the world. And some people are really well off. They have more than one house. They have big incomes. We all know that. And so it tugs at us to think we are so wealthy and we still have people who are not just sitting on a bench, but we have people who are working every day, sometimes two jobs, and they are not making enough to help their families. That is what this debate is about. Pat Moynihan said in the early 1970s, and this Congress has said before: Let's try the earned-income tax credit. In other words, if you are working, and you are poor and you qualify, we will send you a check. The check comes from all of us. It doesn't come from this segment of society or that segment or just the small businesspeople. We all step up to the plate. The taxpayer pays the bill for earned-income tax credit.
Why didn't we have a hearing to talk about that? The tax credit is targeted to help low-income workers. It is only available for families making up to between 175 to 200 percent of poverty. For example, in 2006, a single parent with two or more children could not receive the earned-income tax credit if he or she earned more than $36,000. That is not a lot of money when you are trying to raise two children.
In comparison, according to the Congressional Budget Office, nearly 60 percent of a minimum wage increase would go to individuals living in families earning more than $36,000. So 60 percent of what we propose to do here goes to families earning more than $36,000, but an earned- income tax credit recipient could not receive money if they made more than $36,000.
The CBO study released this month also looked at the potential impact of increasing the minimum wage to $7.25 as well as possible increases to the earned-income tax credit. I put that in the Record a few minutes ago.
If we increase the minimum wage as has been proposed, CBO says it would cost $11 billion, the smaller number, but only $1.6 billion of that $11 billion would go to working families living below the poverty line. CBO is bipartisan, and works for all of us. They went on to say that to send nearly the same amount of money to working poor families, $1.4 billion in assistance, we would only need to increase the earned- income tax credit by $2.4 billion. So instead of a $11 billion or $18 billion pricetag for the minimum wage, we could have done the same thing through the earned-income tax credit by spending $2.4 billion.
Increasing the earned-income tax credit would target the same amount of money to poor families as raising the minimum wage at one-fifth the cost.
I have used my example of asking a professor at the University of Massachusetts or Wyoming or Tennessee, saying to his class: We have a large goal. We want to help people who are working and who are at the lowest rung of the economic ladder, as Senator Kennedy describes. What would be the best way to do it? Tell me, the professor would say, tell me how to get the largest amount of money to that group of people, how to do it at a reasonable cost, and tell me who should pay the bill.
I think if the answer came back that we should spend $18 billion or more, and it costs five times as much to do it through the minimum wage as it would through the earned-income tax credit, and in addition to that, doing it through the minimum wage sends the bill to a struggling group of people disproportionately, the small businesspeople of America, and lets off all the rest of us, I think that person would get an F. And I think we ought to, as well.
I am sure what is going to happen in this Congress is we are going to pass a minimum wage bill because we are a wealthy country and we want people who are working and who do not have as much to have more. That is our impulse. And I don't believe that bill will get out of this Senate without substantial assistance for the small businesspeople who are paying the bill, or disproportionately the bill.
My hope is that Senator Kennedy and Senator Enzi, some time before we bring up this minimum wage idea again, will say: Let's give ourselves the same kind of examination that I just suggested for those college students. Let's ask ourselves how to do this in an efficient, fair way that gets the money to the right people, instead of going around the country saying ``minimum wage, minimum wage, minimum wage,'' only to find out some time later that we have a lot of disappointed, poor, working families around America who aren't helped by what we convinced ourselves was the right thing to do.
Exhibit 1
Congressional Budget Office,
U.S.Congress,
Washington, DC, January 9, 2007.
Hon. Charles E. Grassley,
Chairman, Committee on Finance,
U.S. Senate, Washington, DC.
Dear Mr. Chairman: In response to your request, the
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analyzed some of the
potential consequences of a hypothetical increase in the
federal minimum wage rate from $5.15 per hour to $7.25 per
hour and of several hypothetical expansions in the earned
income tax credit (EITC). To provide the information, as
requested, about the potential impacts on workers whose
family income was below the federal poverty threshold, the
analysis used data from the March 2005 Current Population
Survey (CPS).
The analysis is subject to a number of limitations and
should not be interpreted as a cost estimate of the effects
of implementing changes in the federal minimum wage or the
EITC in future years. CBO simulated the impacts of those
policy options as if they were in effect in 2004 and did not
incorporate any effect on employment levels or the number of
hours worked. Since that time, the number of workers with
wage rates in the $5.15 to $7.25 range has fallen by almost
30 percent and is expected to continue to decline as
increases in state minimum wage rates and other changes in
the labor market occur. For simplicity, CBO assumed that an
increase in the minimum wage rate would have affected only
the wage rates of workers earning between the old and the new
minimum rates. Some workers with wage rates outside that
range might also be affected by an increase in the minimum
wage. For example, employers are permitted to pay certain
tipped workers as little as $2.13 per hour if their tips
bring their total hourly earnings up to the federal minimum
wage; thus, an increase in the federal minimum wage could
cause some of those employers to raise their wage rates.
Also, some employers of workers already paid at or just above
the new minimum wage rate might increase those workers' wage
rates as well.
In addition, the CPS does not contain all of the
information needed to compute the EITC, limiting the accuracy
of those estimates. Based on the CPS, the estimated amount of
EITC payments in 2004 was about 25 percent below the actual
amount that year. CBO does not have a basis to infer whether
that discrepancy would lead to an underestimate or an
overestimate of the share of additional payments resulting
from the hypothetical expansions of the EITC that would go to
poor families. Moreover, the Joint Committee on Taxation
produces the official estimates for any change in the EITC;
its estimates may be different.
As discussed more fully in the attachment to this letter,
the major findings of the analysis are these:
On the basis of data from the March 2005 CPS, about 18
percent of the 12 million workers who were paid an hourly
wage rate between the federal minimum wage of $5.l5 and $7.24
were in families that had a total cash income below the
federal poverty threshold in 2004. Had all of the workers in
that wage range, instead, received $7.25 per hour, they would
have gotten about $11 billion in additional wages in that
year. About 15 percent of those additional wages ($1.6
billion) would have been received by workers in poor
families.
As requested, CBO examined the potential effects of
hypothetical expansions in the EITC that would have provided
additional payments to workers in poor families similar to
the amount of additional earnings poor workers would have
received by increasing the minimum wage rate to $7.25 per
hour. One option was to increase the subsidy rate for
childless workers by 50 percent. Another option was to
increase the subsidy rate for workers with three or more
children by 25 percent. On the basis of data from the CPS,
combining those options would have increased total EITC
payments by roughly $2.4 billion in 2004, with workers in
poor families receiving $1.4 billion of that total.
The analysis was prepared by Molly Dahl, Tom DeLeire, and
Ralph Smith of CBO's Health and Human Resources Division and
Ed Harris of CBO's Tax Analysis Division. If you or your
staff have any questions or would like further details,
please feel free to call me at (202) 226-2700 or Ralph Smith
at (202) 226-2659.
Sincerely,
Donald B. Marron,
Acting Director.
Attachment.
Response to a Request by Senator Grassley About the Effects of Increasing the Federal Minimum Wage Versus Expanding the Earned Income
Tax Credit
In response to a request from Senator Grassley, the
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) used data from the Current
Population Survey (CPS) to analyze the distributional effects
of a hypothetical increase in the federal minimum wage rate
and of several hypothetical expansions in the earned income
tax credit (EITC). Although use of the CPS allows the
production of results consistent with official poverty
measures, the CPS is known to be inaccurate for measuring the
EITC. CBO's estimates for a particular policy change could
either understate or overstate the true cost of an expansion
of the EITC, depending on how information available in the
CPS differs from what taxpayers reported on their tax forms.
CBO simulated the impacts of the hypothetical policy options
as if they were in effect in 2004 and did not incorporate any
effect on employment levels or the number of hours worked.
The results are not estimates of the effects of implementing
those options in future years.
Furthermore, this analysis is not a cost estimate. For
proposals that would amend the Internal Revenue Code,
including changes in the EITC, official cost estimates are
provided by the Joint Committee on Taxation; its estimates
may differ from those presented here.
Methodology
CBO identified workers who would have been affected by a
hypothetical increase in the federal minimum wage rate from
$5.15 per hour to $7.25 per hour in 2004 as those who
reported in the March 2005 CPS that they were paid on an
hourly basis and whose wage rate was between $5.15 and $7.24
at the time of the survey. Also included were workers who
reported that they were paid $5.00 per hour, under the
assumption that most of them were actually paid $5.15 but had
rounded their survey response.
To estimate the impact of the hypothetical wage rate
increase on the family income of workers, CBO assumed that
all hourly workers whose wage rate was between $5.15 and
$7.24 per hour would have been paid exactly $7.25 per hour
had the hypothetical minimum wage rate been in effect. CBO
further assumed that workers whose wage rate was $7.25 or
higher would have been unaffected by the hypothetical
increase in the minimum wage. For this tabulation, CBO
assumed that no changes in employment or hours would have
resulted from the higher minimum wage rate. The earnings gain
attributed to the hypothetical increase in the minimum wage
was calculated simply by multiplying the increase in the wage
rate by the total number of hours that CBO estimated the
affected people worked in 2004.
A limitation of this analysis is that the estimates are
based on wage rates reported for March 2005 and income
reported for 2004 and, therefore, do not reflect changes that
have occurred since then or that will occur before future
changes in the federal minimum wage, if enacted, would be
implemented. For example, increases in state minimum wage
rates and other changes in the labor market have already
lessened the potential impact of raising the federal minimum
wage rate.
CBO used information on family size and both before-tax
cash family income and after-tax income, including certain
noncash sources of income, in 2004 to place the affected
workers into income categories relative to the poverty
thresholds.
As requested, CBO also examined different ways of expanding
the EITC to achieve similar income gains for workers in
otherwise-poor families. Note that the CPS does not contain
all of the information necessary to compute the EITC,
limiting the accuracy of CBO's estimates. For example, using
the CPS, CBO estimates that taxpayers received about $29
billion in EITC in 2004, when they actually received about
$40 billion.
Estimates of the Effects of a Hypothetical Increase in the Minimum Wage
in 2004
Table 1 provides CBO's estimates of the number of workers
paid on an hourly basis in March 2005 who received a wage
rate below $5.00, between that rate and $7.24, and at or
above $7.25. It shows that 11.6 million workers reported that
they received a wage rate in the affected range. Table 1 also
provides a cross-tabulation by income-to-poverty ratio, based
on the family cash income of those workers in 2004, as
reported by the Census Bureau. It shows that 18.5 percent
(2.1 million) of the workers who received a wage rate in
the relevant range in March 2005 were living in families
that were poor in 2004.
Table 2 repeats the information from Table 1 but uses an
after-tax measure of income that also includes the value of
certain noncash sources of income. In the placement of people
into income-to-poverty categories, the poverty thresholds
themselves remain unchanged. On the basis of this alternative
measure of income, a smaller portion of the workers in the
relevant wage range were counted as poor (14.4 percent,
rather than 18.5 percent).
Tables 3 provides CBO's estimates of the income gains that
would have resulted from raising the wage rates of everyone
who reported that they were paid between $5.00 and $7.24 per
hour up to an hourly rate of $7.25. For those figures, CBO
simply added its estimates of the gains in earnings from the
wage rate increase to estimates of families' cash income. CBO
estimates that $1.6 billion (15 percent) of the $11 billion
in increased earnings that resulted from the higher wage rate
would have been received by workers who were in families with
money income below the official poverty threshold in 2004.
Estimates of the Effects of Hypothetical Increases in the EITC in 2004
Table 4 provides CBO's estimates of the distributional
income effects of the changes in the EITC specified in the
request. Again, the estimates are based on the CPS, not tax
statistics, and do not take into account the many intricacies
of actual tax provisions or the ways that people might alter
their behavior in response to changes in the EITC. The Joint
Committee on Taxation provides the official estimates of the
potential effects of changes in the EITC.
In 2004, eligible taxpayers with one qualifying child could
claim a credit of 34 percent of their earnings up to $7,660,
resulting in a maximum credit of $2,604; the credit phased
down at a rate of 15.98 percent of earnings above $14,040 for
nonjoint filers and $15,040 for joint filers. For eligible
taxpayers with two or more qualifying children, the credit
was 40 percent of their earnings up to $10,750, with a
maximum credit of $4,300; the phase-out rate was 21.06
percent, beginning at earnings above $14,040 for nonjoint
filers and $15,040 for joint filers. Taxpayers between the
ages of 25 and 64 with no qualifying children could claim a
credit of 7.65 percent of their earnings up to $5,100,
resulting in a maximum credit of $390; beginning at earnings
above $6,390 for nonjoint filers and $7,390 for joint filers,
the credit phased out at a rate of 7.65 percent. All
thresholds are higher now. Not only are they indexed for
inflation, but the plateau for joint filers was increased by
$1,000 in 2005 and is scheduled to increase again in 2008.
The first column of Table 4 shows that, of the estimated
$29 billion in EITC received in 2004, about 40 percent ($11
billion) was received by workers in poor families. (As
explained, that CPS-based estimate of the total amount of
EITC received is much lower than the actual amount that year,
$40 billion.)
The second column reports CBO's estimates of the effects of
a hypothetical expansion in the EITC in which workers in
families with three or more children would be eligible for an
additional credit. The subsidy rate for that group was
increased from 40 percent to 50 percent, the maximum credit
available was increased from $4,300 to $5,375, and the phase-
out rate was increased from 21.06 to 26.325 percent,
representing a 25 percent increase over the credit available
in 2004 to those in families with two or more children. (The
difference between the maximum credit available to those in
families with three children and those in families with two
children is $1,075, as compared with the $1,696 difference in
the maximum credit available to those in families with two
children and those in families with one child.) Using CPS
data, CBO estimates that this expansion would have increased
EITC payments to poor families by $1.1 billion.
The third column examines what the results of a
hypothetical expansion of the EITC to childless individuals
might have been. As requested, the subsidy rate, the maximum
credit, and the phase-out rate to workers without children
were increased by 50 percent. Under the hypothetical
expansion, the maximum credit available to those workers
would have been $585, and the subsidy and phase-out rates
would have been 11.475 percent. This expansion would have
increased EITC payments to poor families by an estimated $0.3
billion.
The fourth column examines the effects of a hypothetical
expansion of the EITC in which both the expansion for those
in families with three or more children and the ex-
pansion for childless individuals discussed above were
implemented. Using CPS data, CBO estimates that the
combination of the two would have resulted in increasing EITC
payments to the poor by $1.4 billion, about 60 percent of the
overall increase of $2.4 billion that CBO estimates would
have occurred in 2004 if those expansions had been in place
at the time.
Mr. President, I compliment the Senator from Alabama and ask unanimous consent to be added as a cosponsor to his legislation.