Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the order for the quorum call be rescinded. Mr. President, I think we should get a little perspective, at least as I see it, on the Corker-Hoeven-Schumer…
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the order for the quorum call be rescinded.
Mr. President, I think we should get a little perspective, at least as I see it, on the Corker-Hoeven-Schumer substitute that was voted on earlier, and we will vote on again. I think this is what happened.
It became clear last week that the Gang of 8 bill was nowhere close to doing what it promised to do on enforcement. The flaws were too dramatic to hide and the CBO found it would only reduce illegal immigration by 25 percent after they had promised dramatic changes in it. And I pointed out that it had holes all through it, like Swiss cheese, and the CBO essentially confirmed that.
The bill was in trouble. Support for the gang's proposal began to fall, and the mood changed from over confidence among the supporters to even panic. The gang knew action had to be taken or things could be lost, so they got--they went to Senators Corker and Hoeven with this idea that they would just add 20,000 Border Patrol agents to our current agents on the border and 700 miles of fencing. Both of those projects they had steadfastly rejected, even rejecting the Cornyn amendment to add 5,000 agents. One of the Members of the Senate said it was dumb to do any fencing, and they opposed the fence.
Well, these provisions of new enforcement were contrary to what the supporters had been saying for weeks. They promised America their bill was the toughest ever, driving those messages into homes all over America with TV advertisements; with Senator Rubio; big business; Mr. Zucherberg pretending he is a conservative advocate; running ads telling us all what we ought to know and do about this bill. The goal, I have to say, was to provide some sort of cover to get wavering Democrats and Republicans to sign on to this new bill that is going to add 20,000 agents.
Well, why would they be willing to make such a dramatic, unceremonious retreat on a position they had taken for months? First, they were desperate. Something needed to be done. Secondly, they know that the promises made in this substitute bill to build fences and to add 20,000 agents will never occur. It is not going to happen. So they are really not worried about that. It is a kabuki dance, a bob-and- weave, a rope-a-dope. Everybody in the Senate knows how this process is working. The staff know it, and I think probably most of the media understand it.
These promised actions are not going to happen in the future. The interests who push this bill have never wanted to end the illegality. I have been fighting on this for years. Every time we get close to fixing E-Verify, every time we get--in fact, we had debates, and I had to hold up bills to keep E-Verify from expiring. Forces were out there trying to kill E-Verify for years, and I held up legislation to insist that at least we keep it alive. We weren't able to strengthen it, which it needed desperately. That is the workplace situation, E-Verify is, where when a person applies for a job they run a quick computer check on a person's Social Security number to determine whether they have a lawful Social Security number. It identifies a lot of people who are illegally here and should not be taking jobs. So those forces have never wanted a lawful system, and they objected to things that occurred.
So their interests and the interests of those who met in secret to cobble this bill together have always favored more immigration, legal immigration, and it seems to me quite a bit of indifference to illegal. These are the forces that have voiced support for but blocked the creation of real border security fencing over the years.
They have voiced support for E-Verify with a blocked extension of it and strengthening of it. They have voiced support for an entry-exit visa system that works in all land, sea, and airports; indeed, we have passed bills to do that--biometric land, sea, and airports. This bill reduces that requirement through just entry-exit visa systems at air and seaports and not on land, and it is not biometric. That is a critical difference because now 40 percent of the people here illegally come on visas and overstay, and we have no idea who is leaving the country. We clock them in on entry, but we don't clock them out when they leave. So we don't know if anybody has overstayed.
That is the situation we are in. I see my friend, Senator Vitter, and I want him to have time to talk. I know he is due to be talking now. I would say one more thing as he prepares to deliver his remarks.
We were promised, when the bill passed, that the economy would be better, wages would improve, and GDP would be up, and unemployment wouldn't be adversely affected. The CBO report said unemployment will go up, and I have a chart they put out in their own report showing that. They say wages will go down over the next decade, and they say unemployment will go up. They say gross domestic product will increase some as a result of the situation of more people, but per capita, per person, GDP declines for 21 years.
So we need to know--at this time of high unemployment, slow growth, low-wage growth, we need to be very cautious about allowing millions of new workers to enter this economy at this time. We want to have immigration, but we want to have it at a rate that serves the national interests and increasing it dramatically is not appropriate.
I thank the Chair.
Mr. President, I support Senator Vitter's motion. There are multiple points of order that could be raised against this legislation. They have declared a number of the spending programs emergencies; if you designate an appropriation as an emergency, it does not count against the budget, but it is real spending all the same.
Normally, we would expect that border enforcement and hiring of officers would not be an emergency; neither would other aspects of what we are doing here be considered an emergency.
We were told by the sponsors of the legislation repeatedly that this bill will be paid for and it will be paid for by fees and fines contributed by those who are here illegally as part of their payment to get citizenship and legal status. Well, that comes nowhere close to funding the legislation.
This chart I have in the Chamber gives us some--I will get to it in a second. But this chart gives an indication of where we stand with regard to budget implications of the legislation.
So the fines and penalties and fees that are a part of this maybe bring in $6 or $7 billion. They said there was enough to pay for the bill. The bill originally started out at $6 billion, then it went to $8 billion, and then, with the Corker-Hoeven amendment, it jumped to $46 billion. There are no additional fees on the illegal aliens.
When they met with the support group, the Gang of 8 met with the real group who has been driving the bill--this coalition of special interests.
They went to them and said: We need to raise some more money.
And they said: Well, you cannot put any more fines on the people here illegally.
So they said: Yes, ma'am. We will not put any more fines on them. We will put more fees on legal immigrants in the future.
So they raised fees on legal immigrants but did not raise fees on the people who are here illegally who originally they said were going to pay for the entire bill. So that is important for us to fully understand. The money is simply not there.
I will note parenthetically that the 2007 immigration bill--that was on the floor and we debated and eventually failed--that bill would have raised as much as $8,000 per illegal individual. This bill only raises $2,000, and it is to be paid over 10 years. This is not a burdensome payment if you are going to say they pay a fine--as the sponsors of the legislation did--to become permanent residents and put them on a path to citizenship. So it is about $17 a month. I calculated it out roughly. That is not a big fine. You are allowed to work. You get a Social Security card, an ability to apply for any job in America on an equal status with anybody else who has been unemployed and looking for work, their children looking for work and need a job. Somebody who was just a few days before illegally here now has full power under this legislation, if it were passed, to take that job. So the idea that $17 a month is somehow going to be breaking the bank is not accurate.
The problem fundamentally with this situation is that it double counts billions of dollars. We need to understand how this process works, this double counting. It was part of the 2,000-plus page ObamaCare health care legislation. This thing is over a thousand pages--1,200 pages--and things get lost in it. What is lost fundamentally in it--and the supporters of it ought to be more candid about this--is that to make their argument that the bill is going to bring in more money than goes out, they have to double count Social Security and Medicare money. They just do. Senator Corker has made that argument. Basically, we have this money coming in.
In one of the conventions of accounting that our budget team uses-- the
Congressional Budget Office--it calculates all the money coming into the government, all the money going out of the government, regardless of whether or not there is a trust fund.
Another form of accounting accounts for the trust funds and accounts for general revenue. General revenue is on-budget. Off-budget is the Social Security trust fund and some other funds.
So look at this chart. I think it gives a picture of where we are. This is the true cost of this immigration bill. I am the ranking Republican on the Budget Committee. We wrestle with these numbers all the time. Under this, they claim they have a unified budget surplus of $197 billion. That is the accounting method where all the money coming in is counted against all the money going out. But if you remove the Social Security surplus, that is $211 billion. If you remove the Medicare surplus, that is $56 billion, showing, instead of having a surplus, we have a $70 billion deficit.
You say: Well, CBO said different.
No, CBO did not. CBO, in its report, explicitly shows that the on- budget accounting is negative, that it adds to the debt. It counts a surplus in Medicare and Social Security. Now, how could they do that? Well, these individuals--many of them do not have a Social Security Number and are not paying Social Security and Medicare taxes--the withholding of FICA on our paychecks. They are not paying that. Once legalized, they will pay that. There will be new money coming into the Treasury.
These sponsors of the bill, so desperate to promote their bill and say it is paid for, say that Social Security payment, that FICA payment, is now available for them to spend over here on all the things they want to spend the money on; therefore, it has created a surplus. But it ignores something very important: that each one of those individuals who have paid into Medicare, paid into Social Security, are going to draw out Medicare and Social Security. It is their money. It is their retirement money. You cannot put the money up for their retirement and spend it the same day and expect it to be there.
This is how this country is going broke. This is how they handled President Obama's ObamaCare. They double counted the money. Well, you say that is not accurate. Let me read the letter I got from the Congressional Budget Office Director the night before we voted, December 23. I voted against it. The ObamaCare legislation passed on Christmas Eve. They finally got the 60th vote before Senator Brown from Massachusetts could be installed. This is what the CBO said at the time:
[T]he savings to the [Medicare] trust fund under PPACA--
That is the ObamaCare--
would be received by the government only once, so they
cannot be set aside to pay for future Medicare spending and,
at the same time, pay for current spending on other parts of
the legislation. . . . To describe the full amount of
[Medicare] trust fund savings as both improving the
government's ability to pay future Medicare benefits and
financing new spending outside of Medicare would essentially
double-count a large share of those savings and thus
overstate the improvement in the government's fiscal
position.
If that were a private business that sent out a solicitation to buy its stock and they said, we are on a good basis, we are making so much profit--and they are counting as their profit the money going into their employees' pension plan--I think they would be in big trouble, do you not? Because it is not their money, it is money committed to the employees' pension. You cannot claim it as profit and say, invest in my company, I am making a big profit, counting the money that is in the employees' retirement money.
Well, this is what we have been doing. The Senator from South Carolina used to say: We have been raiding trust funds. If we were in private business, we would be in jail. I think there is too much truth to that, frankly. So this is undisputedly real.
But because there is a score, a unified budget score, the method that says all money comes in and all money goes out, you have a surplus, you can count this as a surplus. Why is that? Well, because most of the people who will be legalized under this bill, those individuals are in a situation where they are younger, maybe 35. So they will pay into Medicare for a number of years, and Medicare for a number of years will see a surplus in their account.
But after they reach retirement age and start retiring, the money is going to be drawn out. In fact, right now the amount of money paid into Social Security and Medicare by American workers is not enough to cover the cost of their retirement. That is why both of those accounts are in serious trouble. We have got to do something about it. We need to be making it stronger, not weaker. This makes it weaker. You are taking the money that should have been going to fund the retirement accounts of the people who were previously illegal who are now legal and spending it on something else.
Senator Vitter is exactly right, there are multiple bases for making a budget point of order against this bill. I believe the motion to waive the budget point of order was a motion to waive all of them, so this will be the only one we will get to vote on. So there are others who could have been raised also.
So what about this argument that wages are supposed to be improved by the bill? We were told that and told that repeatedly. This is what the CBO report says, ``CBO estimates that S. 744 would cause the unemployment rate to increase slightly between 2014 and 2020.'' So this is a fact. So at a time of high unemployment, lower wages, we are passing legislation that will increase unemployment, make more people unable to find work.
This is a chart that was in the CBO report, not my chart. I did not make this chart; it is in their report. It points out the average wage would be lower than under current law over the first dozen years. So we are asked to vote for a bill that CBO says would make the average wage of American working people lower for a dozen years.
I do not see how that is rational, frankly. We have seen since 1999 the wages of American workers have been decreasing as compared to the inflation index. The amount of money they are making is falling compared to inflation. That is a tragic thing. It has been continuous. I thought it might be temporary, but it has been continuing steadily.
One expert, Professor Borjas at Harvard, attributed 40 percent of that to immigration already. This bill will dramatically increase the flow of immigration. So I am worried. This is a chart that has down here 2021, 2023, before it hits the line back where it was. Then you say, well, then it is improving. Not so. Not so. If the bill had not been passed, we would have had some increase all along. The lines would have been much higher. I do not know how many years it would take for this ever to get back to where it would have been if the bill did not pass.
That is what the CBO says. It is not that inconsistent with common sense, that at a time of high unemployment and you bring in millions of workers, it is going to pull down wages. If you bring more coal into America, you bring more iron into America, more cotton into America, the price of those products falls. It is supply and demand. You bring more labor in, you are going to have a lower wage rate, which David Frum has written is what the bill was designed for to begin with, pull down wages.
We need to think about this. I dispute this idea that there is no impact on wages by this immigration law. This is what will happen in the next 10 years: We are going to legalize 11 million people. About half of those are not working effectively in the real job force; maybe they are doing part-time work; maybe their family is taking care of them; maybe they are working in a restaurant or lawn care companies off the books. All of a sudden they are going to be given legal status. They will be able to apply for any job: truckdrivers, forklift operators, coal miners, steelworkers, work for the county commission, city council, State of Alabama. They can apply for all of those jobs. So you are going to see a large increase in the supply of labor available for jobs for which they were not eligible previously.
Second, what about the normal legal flow? We now admit about 1 million people a year into America. That is the most generous admission rate of any Nation in the world. It is pretty significant, very significant. We have been absorbing that. I think we can continue at that rate. However, this bill, in addition to the 1 million I just mentioned, will increase by at least 50 percent the number of immigrants who
come into the country every year hereafter, which is pretty significant.
In addition, there is another 4.5 million who are waiting to come into America. They have been tentatively approved, but there are limits on how many can come each year. So they are waiting their time. They call it a ``backlog.'' They are just waiting their time. That is 4.5 million. They have been accelerated.
Let's think this through. Under the current law, we were on track to admit 10 million people as immigrants into America. By immigrants, I mean people who want to stay here, get legal permanent residence and become citizens. We are on track for 10 million if you follow current law.
Under this bill, we will admit, over the next 10 years to lawful status in America, the 15 million I mentioned, the 11 million plus the 4.5. Then we are going to increase by 50 percent the annual admission rate from 1 million to 1.5, meaning 15 million over 10, which means 30 million. So the number of people who will be given permanent legal status in America over the next 10 years will be 30 million, not 10 if the law had been properly applied.
There is another category. Those are people we refer to generally as guest workers. Guest workers come not to become immigrants, not to stay in the country permanently, but come to work in an area where they can find a job. It is supposed to be in an area where there are not workers to do the work. That is the theory, at least. How will that be impacted by this new legislation? It is going to be double. So the number of guest workers, which is very large now, is going to double under this legislation.
I would say, first of all, it is common sense that the average wage is going to fall. It is common sense that unemployment will go up. It is common sense that it is going to be harder for Americans in this time of high unemployment and falling wages to get a decent job with health care and retirement benefits. It just is.
People can spin and they can quote Grover Norquist and those kinds of things to say otherwise, but Professor Borjas at Harvard says differently, a Federal Reserve economist in Atlanta says differently, the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights said they had hearings and every witness acknowledged it would be bad for American workers, particularly lower income workers, particularly for African-American and Hispanic workers who are already here. They will get hammered the most under this dramatic increase in workers.
They say it will increase GNP. Well, it will. You legalize 30 million, you are going to have a larger economy and it will be bigger. But the question is, per person, per capita, will America's productivity increase? Will our GDP increase?
Well, what did CBO find? This is their chart. It shows that it dropped. This is the baseline today. If we pass the bill, the per- capita GNP of the United States of America of each citizen drops. That does not make us wealthier as a Nation, as a person. So what if the economy grows a little bit but everyone has less because you have got more people? That is what they say: S. 744 would reduce per capita by 0.7 percent in 2023. That is 2023. This is about 16 years they chart that it will be lower than it would have been if the bill never passes.
So why would we want to pass legislation that clearly reduces the per capita wealth of America, our growth of GNP? I do not think that makes good sense. I am concerned about it. Nobody wants to talk about it, they just want to pretend there is no limit to the number of workers who can be brought in and that that will not have a societal impact on America.
Let's take a look at a few things here. This is the Washington Post from 2 weeks ago when we got the job report dealing with the jobs for the month of May. It was considered to be fairly positive. It was about our normal average increase during the recovery period from the recession. But it is still not much. Not so good.
Unemployment went up, even though we created, they said, 175,000 jobs. That sounded good. We created 175,000. But you have to create about that many jobs each month to stay level, because we have more people coming into the workforce each month.
Look at what they said in the article:
The bulk of the job gains in May were in the service
industry, which added about 57,000 jobs last month. Still,
roughly half of those were temporary positions, suggesting
that businesses remain uncertain of consumer demand.
They go on to note:
Missing from the picture were production jobs in industries
such as construction and manufacturing. . . . Meanwhile,
manufacturing shed 8,000 workers. . . .
Manufacturing jobs went down by 8,000. The increase was in service industries. The increase in half of those were part-time or temporary, not full-time, permanent jobs.
Anybody who says we are in great shape with regard to job creation is not telling the truth.
An article in today's Wall Street Journal, ``Some Unemployed Keep Losing Ground,'' states that ``nearly 12 million Americans were unemployed in May, down from a peak of more than 15 million. . . . ''
At one point a few years ago, we had 15 million Americans working. We now have 12 million Americans working.
The percentage of Americans in the workforce continues to fall. It is the lowest since the 1970s when women were entering the workforce. That is why the percentage went up, but now we are down to that level again. People are not finding work.
The idea that we can bring in millions of workers well above the current rate and that this is somehow going to create jobs is hard for me to accept. The article states:
``At 175,000 jobs per month, we're years away,'' said Adam
Looney, a Brookings economist, from where we need to be in
unemployment rate. The real reason is economic growth has not
increased much.
It goes on to cite some very sad numbers that show the danger for people who have been unemployed for longer periods of time. It does appear, unfortunately, that somebody who is older or somebody who has not found a job for quite a number of months finds it even harder to find a job in the future. This is the Wall Street Journal, and they support immigration aggressively, but this is their story. The article talked about Mr. Ken Gray.
Ken Gray has experienced that frustration firsthand. In
January of 2011, Mr. Gray's wife died after a battle with
ovarian cancer; three months later, he was laid off from his
job as an account manager at AT&T, where he had worked for
more than 20 years. Still grieving from the loss of his wife,
Mr. Gray says he was slow to turn his full attention to his
job search. By the time he did, the Chicago resident was
long-term unemployed, and he has struggled to get prospective
employers even to respond to his applications.
``You just feel so discouraged,'' Mr. Gray said. ``You ask
yourself what's the sense of sending a resume if you don't
hear anything.''
Now 59 years old, Mr. Gray been living off his dwindling
savings since his unemployment benefits expired last year. He
says he remains determined to find work. But long-term job
seekers are twice as likely to leave the labor market as to
find jobs, and many experts worry that many of them will
never return to work. That could create a class of
permanently unemployed workers and leave lasting scars on the
economy.
``Once people reach a point where they no longer consider
themselves employable . . . it is very difficult to pull them
back,'' says Joe Carbone, president of WorkPlace, a
Connecticut workforce-development agency. . . . ``We are
losing thousands of people a day. This is like an epidemic.''
I don't think we can pretend this isn't reality. I think the CBO numbers probably understate the problem. Professor Borjas' studies would indicate that and others would indicate that.
Another example is from the New York Times, May 20, 1 month ago, written by Jessica Glazer:
The men began arriving last Wednesday, first a trickle,
then dozens. By Friday there were hundreds of them, along
with a few women.
They set up their tents and mattresses on the sidewalk in
Long Island City, Queens, unpacked their Coronas and cards--
and settled in to wait for as long as five days and nights
for a slender chance at a union job as an elevator mechanic.
On Monday morning. . . . Those in line--there were more
than 800 by sun-up Monday--were hoping for a chance at job
security, higher salaries and other benefits.
Andres Loaiza, 25, had his eye on a position that includes
minimal physical labor. . . . Every 18 to 20 months, the
union accepts 750 applications for the 150 to 200 spots in
its four-year apprenticeship program. . . . While they
waited, the hopefuls lined the sidewalk along 36th Street. .
. . The union had rented six port-a-potties and hired a 24-
hour security guard. . . . Overnight, they brushed their
teeth with bottles of water; tucked into
their sleeping bags, folding chairs or cars; and tried to get
some rest.
On Saturday a light drizzle fell. Gerry Dubatowka, 20, whose father is in Local 3, waited for his shot.
He is studying electrical technology at Orange County
Community College, but said he would rather work with his
hands than be in school.
``I just want to do whatever, wherever I got to start,''
said Mr. Dubatowka. ``I want steady work all the time.''
For millions of Americans, this is what they want. They want a job with a retirement benefit, a health care benefit, and a steady job. We are not creating enough of them. That is the problem. Continuing:
After Sunday's drenching rain, Monday morning dawned gray.
A few arguments erupted as people tried to cut the line. . .
. At 9 a.m. Monday, the door opened. The first man in line
disappeared inside and emerged moments later with a wide
smile across his face.
``Yay! No. 1!'' one man yelled when he stepped onto the
sidewalk.
``Good luck, big guy!'' said another.
This is the problem we are facing. I would share with my colleagues, at the rate of immigration in the future, we will have well over 100,000 new immigrants a month enter the country who are looking for jobs. We will have more than that enter, but we will probably have about 100,000-or-so-plus a month looking for jobs.
What does our Congressional Budget Office say about our future economic growth pattern? The CBO each year, as part of the budget process, lays out a 10-year projection of economic growth for America. They project all kinds of things. They are not perfect, but they use the best data available from the Labor Department, academic studies, private business analysis, and they project how many people would be employed. They are projecting for America's economy what I think a large majority of other economists and private sector people are predicting; that is, a new normal, where growth has not increased as fast as it has during boom times in the past. You have heard that phrase, ``a new normal.'' This is a new normal, and that is what we are facing.
They predict, in the second 5 years of our 10-year budget window, we will increase jobs in America by 75,000 a month, well below the amount of people immigrating to America to get jobs under this bill. Should we invite people to come who are not likely to have a job? Should we invite more people to come than we will have jobs for when they will make the new immigrants who arrive before them unable to have a good job?
Shall we bring in more immigrants than we can absorb, causing wages to decline for American citizens, making it harder for American citizens to find work? Do we take those people who are not finding jobs and do we then place them on the welfare rolls and put them on a government subsistence program when they have been independent and able to prosper previously in the private sector?
What is the right thing for America, colleagues? I think we have to think about that. These numbers from CBO show there will be adverse impacts on the economy, wages, and unemployment at a time when we need to be doing just the opposite. We need to be creating jobs, putting people to work. We simply have to give first priority to those to whom we owe our allegiance, the people who fought our wars, paid our taxes, and kept the country going when they were able to work.
I raise that point. People don't like to talk about it, but I do believe it is honest and true. A good immigration policy should be focused on a number of things. It should be focused first on the national interests, the interests of the American working people, whether they are lawful immigrants and not yet citizens or whether they are lawfully here as citizens. We owe our obligation first to that cohort of people. They are loyal to our country, and we owe them our loyalty first.
Then we bring in people at the rate we think we can absorb that is healthy for America. Maybe 1 million people a year is about the right rate. If that is where we are, I can accept that. To have it increased by 50 percent, to have the guest worker program doubled on top of allowing early entrants and legality to 15 million, that is a trend that I think is dangerous for America.
My position is this, let's be prudent, friends and colleagues. Let's be cautious. Let's not be increasing the legal flow by 50 percent at a time of high unemployment when it looks as if we are not going to be able to create enough jobs for those people who would be coming here. We surely don't need to be doubling, it seems to me, the guest worker program at a time when we have high unemployment.
This is where we are. I believe that needs to be considered. I think the American people who are out here watching what is going on in the Congress need to be asking their Senators and their Members of Congress who will be taking up these issues soon: Are you thinking about us? Whom are you thinking about? Are you thinking politics or are you thinking about me? Who is thinking about me?
You meet in secret with the Chamber of Commerce. You meet in secret with La Raza, you meet with the politicians, you meet with the meat packers group, and the immigration lawyers association, but you don't meet with the law enforcement officers who have told us this bill will not work.
You don't have representatives from the heart and soul of America in there. Nobody is expressing what kind of impact will be felt by them. This is what my concern is and one of my many concerns as we wrestle with legislation.
We can deal compassionately with the people who have been here for a long time, and I will support that. I believe we need a system that ends the lawlessness and a system that serves the national interests of American citizens.
I thank the Chair, and I yield the floor.
The Senator from Oklahoma.