Thank you very much. I appreciate that. I want to share something with the Representative from Wisconsin and with the Chair. We labor here under an awful barrier, and that barrier is this: we are required to actually be original. I…
Thank you very much. I appreciate that. I want to share something with the Representative from Wisconsin and with the Chair.
We labor here under an awful barrier, and that barrier is this: we are required to actually be original. I sometimes am unable to carry that burden, and I found something this Saturday that I think was so important, so well written, so profound that I am going to yield to an article that I read on Saturday in the Huffington Post, written by Jason Linkins and Zach Carter, called ``Dow Jones Hits `Record High' Thanks to Strong Performances from Smoke,
Mirrors Sectors.'' I'd like to share that with the gentleman from Wisconsin, the Chair, and with anyone else who just might happen to be listening right now.
The article reads as follows:
This week, amid the hullabaloo over President Barack
Obama's Deficit Dinner Diplomacy and Senator Rand Paul's 13-
hour filibuster-cum-dissertation on drone strikes and civil
liberties, financial news-watchers touted a milestone in
their lives of Market Worship. We speak, of course, of the
Dow Jones Industrial Average, which on Tuesday hit an ``all-
time high'' of 14,253. The good times rolled steadily on
through the week, and the Dow closed Friday at 14,397.
Of course, the notion that these were ``record'' highs was
not, strictly speaking, true. As Jeff Cox at CNBC pointed
out, ``In inflation-adjusted dollars, the Dow would need to
hit 15,731 to break the record.'' Nevertheless, the exciting
new ordinal number sitting on the stock market index set off
a chorus of hallelujahs. After all, this was the highest mark
it had hit since October 2007. (Of course, if we recall
correctly, that was right around the time that all of our
more recent tragic economic events began to occur.)
The fluctuations of the Dow are typically pored over by the
media in the same way that ancient oracles pierced through
the entrails of birds, seeking for whatever path might lead
to the most prosperity. And in the world of politics,
partisans on both sides are quick to point to the Dow as
generic confirmation that their policies are working as long
as the story suits their narrative anyway.
And these narratives can get wild and weird and wooly
quickly. Seemingly within moments of the Dow's peak, ``Dow
36,000'' author James Glassman was on the pages of Bloomberg
View, taking credit for this and crowing about how his old,
failed predictions were well on the way to coming true.
Of course, as Jonathan Chait points out, Glassman has to
toss out the entire underlying thesis of ``Dow 36,000.'' (He
and coauthor Kevin Hassett ``theorized that the stock market,
circa 1999, was being so undervalued that it would have been
at 36,000 in the days ahead of the massive tech-bubble burst
as opposed to theorizing that ``someday, maybe the Dow would
hit 36,000. Probably. You know, just watch'') in order to
claim vindication now.
Former Reagan domestic policy adviser Bruce Bartlett just
called Glassman a ``nitwit'' and left it at that.
All of which leads to an obvious point: although we
recognize that the long-term trend of the stock market is
that it has an overall upward trajectory--punctuated in
snapshots by the susurrations of the greed/fear cycle--it is
nevertheless catnip for a lot of wild-eyed prognosticators,
and the over-reliance of using the stock market as evidence
of economic recovery, or the proof of economic fundamentals,
is acute.
So what does it say about the Dow that it could hit this
dizzying new height--impressive by any measure in any era,
post-crash or otherwise--at a time when the overall global
economic outlook is so dismal and the domestic recovery is
barely felt by the citizens who sacrificed their capital to
save the world from calamity?
It says that we should be gravely concerned. It says that
we have a two-tiered economy, one where profits flow and
another where risks lurk. It says that a lot of people are
being left behind, and if October 2007 is any guide, it says
that this display of prosperity may simply be an illusion.
The distribution of the stock market's largesse has been
the most un-egalitarian aspect of American economics for
years. A full 50 percent of all capital gains go not to the
richest 1 percent of Americans, but to the richest 0.1
percent, according to The Washington Post.
But the stock market's persistent upward climb since the
spring of 2009 has revealed another massive disparity: the
multinational corporate machinery that generates stock gains
has become unmoored from the economic reality in which the
majority of Americans live and die.
The Dow hit its peak this week amid a host of gloomy global
economic forecasts. Back in January, the World Bank ``sharply
reduced its estimate of global economic growth in 2013,
projecting that the downturn in Europe and the United States'
fiscal problems will continue to weigh on investment and
spending.'' The World Bank's take on U.S. growth was
similarly dismal--its 1.9 percent forecast for the coming
year was less than the most pessimistic estimates of our own
Federal Reserve.
There's no end in sight for the austerity orgy that's
exacerbating Eurozone pain, despite the fact that the EU
projects that their economy, ``which generates nearly a fifth
of global output, will shrink 0.3 percent in 2013.''
(Analysts are currently divided on whether or not China is
also experiencing a slowdown at the moment as well.)
Closer to home, we received a gentle boost from this
month's employment numbers: 236,000 jobs were created this
past month, pending after-the-fact revisions in the months to
come, which is closer to the ideal in terms of keeping ahead
of labor market growth and finally digging out of the post-
crash hole. The overall unemployment rate has subsequently
dropped to 7.7 percent. But these numbers can mask a bevy of
problems. As Matt Yglesias points out, the situation for the
long-term unemployed is becoming a bona fide crisis that
calls for ``targeted interventions.''
And even if the unemployment number continues to drop,
there's a real concern over what sort of jobs are being added
back to the economy. Will they be the quality jobs that put
those entering those jobs and reentering those jobs into the
labor force on a sustainable path to household prosperity? Or
is everyone heading to a future of toil in Amazon shipping
warehouses? It's worth being fretful, because many of those
who will be entering the job market for the first time will
be carrying student loans out of a period of sky-high college
tuition, which taken as a whole may form the backbone of the
next great financial crisis.
Even as the economy has tipped and trended in the direction
of what we might normally call--nominally call--``recovery,''
the answer to the question ``Who has recovered?'' reveals
some stark contrast.
As the University of California, Berkeley economics
professor Emmanuel Saez calculated, losses in average family
income during the Great Recession were felt across the board.
Average real income per family declined by 17 percent. And
the top income earners took it on the chin a little harder.
As the bottom 99 percent experienced a 12 percent drop in
average income, the uppermost percentile's income fell by 36
percent. As Saez reports, ``The sharp fall in top incomes is
explained primarily by the collapse of realized capital gains
due to the stock market crash.''
Of course, the top 1 percent, nevertheless, were largely
sheltered from the stresses that afflicted the most
vulnerable, as you would expect. What you, perhaps, didn't
expect was how the recovery distributed itself across the
same groups.
From 2009 to 2011, average real income per family grew
modestly by 1.7 percent, but the gains were very uneven. Top
1 percent incomes grew by 11.2 percent while bottom 99
percent incomes shrunk by 0.4 percent. Hence, the top 1
percent captured not 100 percent, but 121 percent of the
income gains in the first 2 years of the recovery. From 2009
to 2010, the top 1 percent grew fast and then stagnated from
2010 to 2011. The bottom 99 percent stagnated both from 2009
to 2010 and from 2010 to 2011. In 2012, the top 1 percent
income will likely surge due to booming stock prices, as well
as the re-timing of income to avoid the higher 2013 top tax
rates. The bottom 99 percent will likely grow much more
modestly than top incomes from 2011 to 2012.
This suggests that the Great Recession has only depressed
top income shares temporarily and will not undo any of the
dramatic increase in top income shares that has taken place
since the 1970s.
Much of the economic recovery is simply an increase in the
value of financial assets--stocks and bonds. And most people
just don't own stocks. In 2011, only 21 percent of American
adults even had a 401(k) retirement account, according to a
HuffPost analysis of data from the Investment Company
Institute. Only 52 percent of all adults older than 65
receive money from financial assets at all, with half of that
set receiving less than $1,260 a year, according to the
Pension Rights Center.
Growth that everyone relies on, like that of home values
and wages, has been sluggish. At the end of 2012, the S&P/
Case-Shiller Home Price Indices were roughly where they were
at the beginning of 2009 (which was roughly where they were
in the fall of 2003).
And even as the stock market hits this celebrated peak, the
wages that average Americans are bringing home to, you know,
``put food on their family,'' as George W. Bush famously
said, those are plunging into a trough, despite measurable
gains in overall productivity.
In fact, as Robert Reich points out, the way those
productivity gains are being achieved leaves out workers
altogether, and they are coming about as a result of actions
taken by policymakers:
``Corporations have been investing in technology rather
than their workers. They get tax credits and deductions for
such investments. They get no such tax benefits for improving
the skills of their employees. As a result, corporations can
now do more with fewer people on their payrolls. That means
higher profits.''
Reich adds:
``Joblessness all but eliminates the bargaining power of
most workers, allowing corporations to keep wages low. Public
policies that might otherwise reduce unemployment, a new WPA
or CCC to hire the long-term unemployed, major investments in
the Nation's crumbling infrastructure, have been rejected in
favor of austerity economics. This also means higher profits,
at least in the short run.''
In other words, the labor force is being squeezed for the
very last drop of productivity, because employers know that
they're holding all the cards. If the economy were
approaching full employment, discontented or overworked
employees would have options and leverage. Right now, they
don't. If you've got a job, you need to hang on to it for
dear life. That's an environment for scraping out survival,
not the economic mobility we rightly celebrate during boom
years.
Another thing to keep in mind is that the Dow is hitting
this peak at a time when everyone in the world knows that the
debate over sequestration--whose cuts have awesome recession-
generating powers--has gone
into vapor-lock, with the GOP refusing to compromise on
raising revenues, through the very tax reform proposals that
formed the basis of the party's recent Presidential campaign.
Everyone has been warned about the consequences of
sequestration. It's just that corporate America currently has
the fortunate position of being able to greet the news with a
shrug, as The New York Times reported this week:
``With $85 billion in automatic cuts taking effect between
now and September 30 as part of the so-called Federal budget
sequestration, some experts warn that economic growth will be
reduced by at least half a percentage point. But although
experts estimate that sequestration could cost the country
about 700,000 jobs, Wall Street does not expect the cuts to
substantially reduce corporate profits, or seriously threaten
the recent rally in the stock markets.''
``It's minimal,'' said Savita Subramanian, head of United
States equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America
Merrill Lynch. Overall, the sequester could reduce earnings
at the biggest companies by just over 1 percent, she said,
adding, ``the market wants more austerity.''
Well, if that's true, the market is going to love the dire,
short-term consequences that the sequestration is going to
bring to many Americans closer to the ground level of the
economy. Reich rounds up those who will be hit hardest and
most immediately. One hundred and twenty-five thousand people
are going to lose their rental subsidies. Ten thousand more
will be cut off from similar subsidies intended to assist
Americans living in rural areas. One hundred thousand people
face getting kicked out of emergency homeless shelters, and
cuts are coming to unemployment insurance, title I education
programs, Head Start, and antihunger subsidies.
It's not like those who bid on the stock market can't grasp
the looming disaster. They're just completely unconcerned. As
you may recall, the market didn't exactly take to its
fainting couch as the so-called ``fiscal cliff'' loomed,
either, despite dire warnings of a market spasm.
That's what carting off 121 percent of an economic recovery
will do for a person safely ensconced atop the income ladder.
Fittingly, even as the sequestration's hammer is poised to
come down, The Wall Street Journal reports that the market
for luxury goods is booming. The newspaper characterizes this
as evidence of economic robustness, connecting ``the economy
has bounced back from recession'' to ``as a result, wealthy
Americans are spending freely on expensive clothing,
accessories, jewelry and beauty products.''
The Wall Street Journal quotes HSBC luxury-goods analyst
Antoine Belge thusly: ``Trends in luxury consumption in the
United States have continued to outperform overall consumer
trends.'' This is actually evidence that you and most people
you know are getting left far behind in the post-crash
economy.
The average participant in the overall American economy
isn't fooled by any of this. They well know what Matt
Phillips pointed out at Quartz, that household incomes
``haven't gone anywhere but down.'' As Phillips relates,
``Real median U.S. household income--that's ``real'' as in
``adjusted for inflation''--was $50,054 in 2011, the most
recent data available from the U.S. Census Bureau. That's 8
percent lower than the 2007 peak of $54,489.''
He goes on to show that consumer expectations strike a
serious contrast from the mood within the Dow Jones revival
tent.
We are led then, inevitably, to a conclusion that we all
feel but no one says aloud.
And, by the way, that's my job, to say all the things that we all feel but no one says aloud.
The American middle class, in other words, no longer lives
in a financial economy. But the gold-standard economic
metrics that we hold out as the key measurements of
prosperity, the economy of Wall Street, of gross domestic
product figures, of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is
purely, purely financial.
For the time being, you can assume that you and everyone
you care about is screwed. Congratulations.