Madam President, I am returning to the floor, as I have many times in the last few years, to further address what I have considered to be probably the greatest single hoax ever perpetrated on the American people, and that is this thing…
Madam President, I am returning to the floor, as I have many times in the last few years, to further address what I have considered to be probably the greatest single hoax ever perpetrated on the American people, and that is this thing called global warming. As I noted in my last speech, there is a perception, especially among the media and the environmental elitists, that the scientific community has reached a consensus on global warming. As Sir David King, the chief science adviser to the British Government, recently said:
There is a very clear consensus from the scientific
community on the problems of global warming and our use of
fossil fuels.
Those problems amount to rising sea levels, floods, tsunamis, droughts, hurricanes, disease, and mass extinction of species--all caused by the ever-increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The alarmists confidently assert that most scientists agree with this, and they vehemently dispute claims of uncertainty about whether catastrophes will occur.
It is interesting that most of the people who are talking about gloom and
doom on global warming are the same ones, just a few years ago, in the 1970s, who were talking about global cooling, saying that a little ice age is coming and we are all going to die. But today, to question the science of catastrophic global warming is considered illegitimate. Consider Dr. Daomi Oreskes, who wrote in the Washington Post last December:
We need to stop repeating nonsense about the uncertainty of
global warming and start talking seriously about the right
approach to address it.
Global warming, then, is no longer an issue for scientific debate. It appears to have soared into the realm of metaphysics, reaching the status of revealed truth.
Madam President, this is absurd. Since 1999, almost all scientific data has shown that this whole thing is, in fact, a hoax. More then 17,000 scientists have signed the Oregon Petition--ironically, after listening to the two Senators from Oregon who had excellent presentations--stating that fears of catastrophic global warming are groundless. These and other scientists who do not subscribe to the so- called consensus are condemned as skeptics and tools of industry. Now, in order to avoid professional excommunication, one must subscribe to the four principal beliefs underlying the alarmist consensus. I am going to call these the four pillars of climate alarmism, all of which, it is said, provide unequivocal support for that consensus view.
What I am going to do is talk about all four pillars, but mainly only one today, and then wait a week and let that soak in and then maybe come back and talk about the other three. The four pillars are as follows: The 2001 National Academy of Sciences report summarizing the latest science of climate change, requested by the Bush administration. Pillar No. 2, which we will be talking about later, is the scientific work of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC--we have heard a lot about that, most especially its Third Assessment Report, released in 2001. The third pillar is the recent report of the international Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. No. 4 is the data produced by climate models.
I will show over the next several weeks that none of these pillars support the consensus view. Today I will begin my four pillars series with the NAS.
Before I delve into the NAS report, some historical CBO context is in order.
Back in 2001 the Kyoto Treaty was on the verge of collapse. President Bush announced his rejection of the Kyoto Treaty, calling it ``fatally flawed in fundamental ways.'' Our friends in Europe expressed outrage, even shock, though it was never in doubt where the United States stood. We have not changed our position.
In 1997, here on the floor of the Senate, we passed by a vote of 95 to nothing the Byrd-Hagel resolution. Primarily, the Byrd-Hagel resolution said if you come back from Kyoto with something that treats developing nations differently from developed nations, then we will reject it, we will not ratify it. Of course, that is exactly what happened. So we are supposed to do all these things, but not China and not Mexico, not the other countries--yet that passed 95 to nothing. There was not one dissenting vote.
On June 11, 2001, President Bush delivered a speech detailing Kyoto's flaws. He also provided an overview of the current state of climate science as described in a report, which he requested, by the National Academy of Science. Although the report offered very modest conclusions about the state of climate science, as described in a report, which he requested, by the National Academy of Sciences. Though the report offered very modest conclusions about the state of climate science, alarmists repeatedly invoke it as ironclad proof of their consensus. So let's take a closer look at what the NAS had to say.
The 2001 NAS report was wide-ranging and generally informative about the state of climate science. It stated that, ``Because there is considerable uncertainty in current understanding of how the climate system varies naturally and reacts to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, current estimates of the magnitude of future warming should be regarded as tentative and subject to future adjustments (either upward or downward).''
Let me repeat that: ``Considerable uncertainty in current understanding.'' ``Estimates should be regarded as tentative and subject to future adjustments.'' Does this sound like solid support for the consensus view? Surely there must be more. Well, in fact there is.
Under the headline ``The Effect of Human Activities,'' the NAS addressed the potential impact of anthropogenic emissions on the climate system. Here's what it said:
Because of the large and still uncertain level of natural
variability inherent in the climate record and the
uncertainties in the time histories of various forcing agents
(and particularly aerosols), a causal linkage between the
buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the
observed climate changes in the 20th century cannot be
unequivocally established.
Again, that's worth repeating:
Because of the large and still uncertain level of natural
variability . . . [u]ncertainties in the time histories of
various forcing agents . . . cannot be unequivocally
established.
I read numerous press accounts of the NAS report, yet I failed to come across reporting of this quote. Is this what the consensus peddlers have in mind when they assert that everything is ``settled''?
The NAS also addressed the relationship between climate change and aerosols, which are particles from processes such as dust storms, forest fires, the use of fossil fuels, and volcanic eruptions. To be sure, there is limited knowledge of how aerosols influence the climate system. This, said the NAS, represents ``a large source of uncertainty about future climate change.''
By any conceivable standard, this and other statements made by NAS cannot possibly be considered unequivocal affirmations that man-made global warming is a threat, or that man-made emissions are the sole or most important factor driving climate change. It certainly cannot provide the basis for the United States Congress to adopt economically harmful reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
It would be a grand folly to do that, especially considering what the NAS had to say about global climate models. The NAS believes much of the uncertainty about climate change stems from those models, which researchers rely on to make projections about future climate changes. These models, as the NAS wrote, contain serious technological limitations that cast doubt on their ability to simulate the climate system:
[the models] simulation skill is limited by uncertainties in
their formulation, the limited size of their calculations,
and the difficulty of interpreting their answers that exhibit
as much complexity as in nature.''
Model projections, as the NAS pointed out, rest on a raft of uncertain assumptions.
Projecting future climate change first requires projecting
the fossil-fuel and land-use sources of CO2 and
other gases and aerosols,
the NAS found. ``However, there are large uncertainties''--please note the phrasing again, ``large uncertainties''--
in underlying assumption about population growth, economic
development, life style choices, technological change and
energy alternatives, so that it is useful to examine
scenarios developed from multiple perspectives in
considering. strategies for dealing with climate change.
For this reason, simulations produced by climate models provide insufficient proof of an absolute link between anthropoenic emissions and global warming.
The fact that the magnitude of the observed warming is
large in comparison to natural variability as simulated in
climate models is suggestive of such a linkage, [according to
NAS] but it does not constitute proof of one because the
model simulations could be deficient in natural variability
on the decadal to century time scale.
That last point demands further elaboration and emphasis. The NAS thinks climate models could be off by as much as a decade, or perhaps 100 years. Why is this important? Global climate models constitute one of the Four Pillars. Alarmists frequently point to computer-generated simulations showing dramatic, even scary, pictures of what might happen decades from now: more floods, more hurricanes, more droughts, the Gulf Stream shutting down. In many cases, the media eagerly report what these models produce as pure fact, with little or
no explanation of their considerable limitations.
The NAS also addressed the work of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, another of the Four Pillars. The IPCC's 2001 Third Assessment Report, particularly its Summary for Policymakers, is frequently cited as proof of the consensus view. But the NAS disagrees. ``The IPCC Summary for Policymakers,'' the NAS wrote,
could give an impression that the science of global warming
is settled, even though many uncertainties still remain.
Here again, the NAS is saying the science is not settled.
The NAS also addressed the IPCC's future climate scenarios. These scenarios are the basis for the IPCC's projection that temperatures could increase to between 2.7 to 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100. The NAS said:
The IPCC scenarios cover a broad range of assumptions about
future economic and technological development, including some
that allow greenhouse gas emission reductions. However, there
are large uncertainties in underlying assumptions about
population growth, life style choices, technological change,
and energy alternatives.
Once again, the NAS says ``there are large uncertainties in underlying assumptions.''
The same is true, the NAS said, about future projections of CO2 emissions. As the NAS stated:
Scenarios for future greenhouse gas amounts, especially for
CO2 and CO4, are a major source of
uncertainty for projections of future climate.
To bolster the point, the NAS found that actual CO2 emissions contradicted the IPCC, stating that:
The increase of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions
in the past decade, averaging 0.6% per year, has fallen below
the IPCC scenarios.
There are those troublesome words again: ``Large uncertainties in underlying assumptions.'' ``Major source of uncertainty.''
The NAS also expressed clear reservations about the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and how they interact with land and the atmosphere:
How much of the carbon from future use of fossil fuels will
be seen as increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will
depend on what fractions are taken up by land and by the
oceans. The exchanges with land occur on various time scales,
out to centuries for soil decomposition in high latitudes,
and they are sensitive to climate change. Their projection
into the future is highly problematic.
Let me offer one final quote from the study before I turn to the media. Taking stock of the many scientific uncertainties highlighted in the report, the NAS issued explicit advice to guide climate research-- advice, by the way, that alarmists reject:
The most valuable contribution U.S. scientists can make is
to continually question basic assumptions and conclusions,
promote clear and careful appraisal and presentation of the
uncertainties about climate change as well as those areas in
which science is leading to robust conclusions, and work
toward a significant improvement in the ability to project
the future.
I am concerned about the media. I will talk about that in a minute.
People are trying to say that the release of CO2 is the cause of climate change. These people have to understand that historically it doesn't work out that way. We went into a time right after World War II when we had an 85-percent increase in CO2 emissions. What happened there was that precipitated not a warming period but a cooling period. Again, that is too logical for some of the alarmists to understand. They want so badly to feel a crisis is upon us.
It is kind of interesting. There is a well-known author, Michael Crichton, who wrote a book, ``State of Fear.'' I recommend that everyone read that. He is a scientist and a medical doctor who wrote this about how horrible things could happen with global warming. After he researched it, he came to the conclusion that it is a hoax. I recommend everyone read that book. It is very revealing. It is very accurate in the way the media and Hollywood are treating things.
It's not surprising that the media distorted and exaggerated the NAS report. The public was told that the NAS categorically accepted that carbon dioxide emissions were the overwhelming factor causing global warming, and that urgent action was needed. One factually challenged CNN reporter said the NAS study represented ``a unanimous decision that global warming is real, is getting worse, and is due to man. There is no wiggle room.'' The New York Times opined that the report reaffirmed ``the threat of global warming, declaring fearlessly that human activity is largely responsible for it.'' Of course, as the preceding quotes from the report show, this is not true.
This is the report we are talking about with all of the qualifications they have. Of course, the proceedings from this report show it is not true. It is an outrageous lie.
Unfortunately, the media wasn't burdened with any actual knowledge of the report. Rather, it seized on a sentence fragment from the report's summary, and then jumped to conclusions that, to be charitable, cannot be squared with the full report. That fragment from the summary reads as follows: ``Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities. . .'' There's the smoking gun, we were told then and even now, proving a global warming consensus.
However, the second part of the sentence, along with much else in the report, was simply ignored. The second part of the sentence reads: ``We cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability.''
And as we have seen, it is amazing how one could conclude that the NAS ``left no wiggle room'' that ``global warming is due to man.'' Dr. Richard Lindzen, a professor of meteorology at MIT, and a member of the NAS panel that produced the report, expressed his astonishment in an editorial in the Wall Street Journal on June 11, 2001. Dr. Lindzen wrote that the NAS report showed ``there is no consensus, unanimous or otherwise, about long-term climate trends and what causes them.'' Yet to this day, the media continues to report exactly the opposite.
As I noted earlier, raising uncertainties or questioning basic assertions about global warming is considered ``nonsense.'' I wonder if the same applies to the NAS. For on just about every page of the 2001 report, the NAS did exactly that.
But for the alarmists, global warming has nothing to do with science or scientific inquiry. Science is not about the inquiry to discover truth, but a mask to achieve an ideological agenda. For some, this issue has become a secular religion, pure and simple.
Dr. Richard Lindzen has written eloquently and powerfully on this point, so I will end with his words: ``Science, in the public arena, is commonly used as a source of authority with which to bludgeon political opponents and propagandize uninformed citizens. This is what has been done with both the reports of the IPCC and the NAS. It is a reprehensible practice that corrodes our ability to make rational decisions. A fairer view of the science will show that there is still a vast amount of uncertainty--far more than advocates of Kyoto would like to acknowledge--and that the NAS report has hardly ended the debate. Nor was it meant to.''
This is Dr. Lindzen. No one will question his credibility and his background.
We know the economic damage that will be done to America. We have all talked about the report on the econometrics survey. That survey showed how much energy would increase, should we have to comply with the Kyoto Treaty. It shows it would cost the average American family of four $2,175 a year. So we know how expensive that is. That is all documented.
You might say, Wait a minute. If this is true, if the science is not established and there is that much economic damage to the United States, why are we doing this? I think the answer to that could be given from quoting two individuals. One is not exactly an American hero, Jacques Chirac from France, who said:
Kyoto represents the first component of an authentic
governance.
Then some of you may have heard of Margo Wallstrom, the Environmental Minister of the European Union. She said:
Global warming is not about climate. It is about leveling
the economic playing field worldwide.
I hope the first pillar has been discredited, and next week we will start with pillar No. 2 in hopes that we can have a wake-up call for the American
people--that these same alarmists who were concerned about global cooling two decades ago will quit worrying so much about their own agenda and start looking at the science.
I feel an obligation as chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee to look at the science. Certainly the Presiding Officer is a valued member of that committee. We have a commitment to look at sound science, as unpopular as it may be.
I yield the floor.