Madam President, I ask unanimous consent that the order for the quorum call be rescinded. Mr. President, I appreciate the opportunity of sharing some thoughts this afternoon. We are going to be moving forward, presumably even this week,…
Madam President, I ask unanimous consent that the order for the quorum call be rescinded.
Mr. President, I appreciate the opportunity of sharing some thoughts this afternoon. We are going to be moving forward, presumably even this week, with the second tranche. That is the second portion of $350 billion of the Wall Street bailout, the TARP money.
And we will have that coming up, and there will be an attempt to move that through. I have believed from the beginning that it was unwise for this Congress to allow one individual, the Secretary of Treasury, to disburse $700 billion. The way this is set up, and even with the way the votes might occur in Congress, is very troubling. The whole $700 billion will be spent by the two Secretaries of Treasury, without any real accountability, without any real responsibility.
I think Congress is beginning to see the lack of wisdom that we displayed, the lack of fidelity to the responsibilities of the Senate, when we passed that bill with so little control. We do not even know where the money is going, and whether Secretary Paulson, who is a Wall Street guru, is moving money around among friends for friendship reasons, or meritorious reasons, or even if he can tell in this rush- rush effort to put out money, who is deserving and who is not deserving. It is not being done in an open and transparent way.
It is an indication and further proof that we in the Senate and the Congress were not rigorous enough when we passed it. I would add one more thing about that. It is something we ought not to forget. I hoped not to bring it up, but Secretary Paulson announced that he was going to buy toxic mortgages, bad mortgages from banks, in order to get those off their books. He said that most of them would be good and eventually they could be sold for a profit and the taxpayers would not lose any money, and that would be the way we would do this.
Well, within a week--and he was specifically asked at one hearing if he thought we should buy stock in private banks, and he said, no. Within a week or so, he had already changed his mind on that. Instead of buying toxic mortgages, he was now going to buy stock in private American companies. And, in fact, he has now spent over $100 billion in one company, AIG, the insurance company.
AIG is competing with other American companies. How should they feel, I ask you, that the U.S. Government is now providing $100 billion-plus to their competitors? What about the banks who did things right and were cautious and managed their money well? How should they feel about the Government injecting capital into their competitors by buying stock?
And what about those of us who are not of the socialist bend? What should we think about the idea of the U.S. Government buying stock in a multitude of banks, at tens of billions of dollars, and now buying and investing in automobile companies? Someone said the newspapers are next. Well, I guess they are in trouble. They are not doing well financially. They can write a lot of editorials. I mean, maybe we ought to make them happy and give them money. What I am saying is, where does it end?
Out of that background, I want to have a little discussion of the possibility of a stimulus bill that would add some $800 billion to the current level of deficit spending we already have. $800 billion.
There is no doubt that our economy is not performing well. We know that economies historically are cyclical; they go through good times and bad times. They normally respond. We are clearly going through a very difficult recessionary period. The unemployment rate is increasing, and businesses are struggling. We had a hearing before the Budget Committee last Thursday. The Director of the Congressional Budget Office testified, and he predicted that this would be a 2-year recession. Someone later asked him: Well, did that include the stimulus package? And he said, no.
Well, would the stimulus package help? Spending another $800 billion, would that help? He said: Well, it might. That is a little less than a ringing endorsement. He did not say that if we did not pass this bill the economy would never recover and we would continue on a downward spiral forever. So I would say that.
But I do think the Government can play a positive role in helping to shorten the length of the recession that we are in.
There are some things I am prepared to discuss and see if we can agree on. I know President-elect Obama feels very strongly about this. He has been out campaigning, and he made promises to do all he could to recover this economy. He intends to do something, and he promised to do something. He is going to do something.
Now, President Bush has already done some things that I also did not approve of. Doing something can be good. But doing something may not be so good if you do the wrong things. So I am aware that the new administration wants our country to prosper, and
so do I. If there are reasonable, commonsense steps we can take to do that, I say let us do so without delay.
But I want to share some thoughts with you about the fundamental truths that I think all of us in this country know, and especially the area where I come from. One of them is that there is no free lunch. Nobody can get a lunch and say someone did not have to work to put it on the table. There is nothing free. When something is given, somebody pays for it.
There is another thing that is a truism: one way or the other, debts have to be repaid.
You say: Well, you know, sometimes people go bankrupt, you do not get paid back. But the whole system is damaged when debts are not paid back. The next guy may have to pay higher interest rates because his neighbor did not pay his debts and the bank lost money and the bank has got to charge higher interest rates to account for that higher risk.
So there are costs out there, and nothing is free in this country. I wish to focus on this question first. What is the best thing we can do for America in the long run? What should we, the responsible Senate, where we're supposed to be the saucer that cools, what should we do and how should we approach this issue?
Let's be frank. The stimulus bill, the recovery bill as some are calling it now, may well provide some stimulus to the country. I am not sure. But I would say this: at its face, it is a spending bill. It spends money in order to create projects that might create jobs, and this is the theory behind the effort to stimulate the economy.
We spend the money to try to create jobs. So it relies on the theory that ramping up government spending will flood the country with money, $800 billion worth, acting like a booster shot for a sick economy.
This is not a new theory. It has been tried before all over the world. Many economists say this type of spending-stimulus simply does not work. They have cited examples of it throughout history.
President Bush tried it in February last year, less than a year ago, when he began the process to send out a $600 check. I think there is a general consensus now that the plan that was sold to Congress as a stimulus for the economy did not have the desired effect.
I wish it were not so. I wish it had. I would point out that I did not think at the time that it would work. I did not vote for it. There were not many of us who did not vote for it, but I was one of the few. But it did not work, in my opinion. It cost $168 billion. Every penny of that $168 billion, since we were in a deficit and it was new spending on top of what we planned to spend, and we knew we were there, is a deficit added to the deficit. As a result, it basically, in one piece of legislation, doubled the annual deficit last year.
Then we had some more spending that went on later on in the year. I will show this chart in a minute that sort of dramatizes where we are.
So I would say both parties have some fingerprints on some policies that have not been very helpful. We did not ask enough tough questions when President Bush proposed his agenda, and we also did not ask enough questions when they passed the $700 billion bailout in October, in my opinion. I hope we do not make the mistake again of rushing to approve the second phase of that along with this $800 billion stimulus package.
We need to ask the right questions. We should not be intimidated by it. We should not be panicked. The bill does not have to be passed in 1 day, or else the country is going to be permanently damaged. We need to try to improve the economy without wasting money or creating long-term problems for the Nation.
So there is this effort to continue what Secretary Paulson promoted, a rhetoric that says we have got to do something and we have got to do it in a hurry. We have got to do it now. We are still hearing that. Well, I think we don't need to be afraid to say, let's slow this down a little bit.
When something of such historic proportions is on the table, a bill of this magnitude, the Senate has a responsibility to carefully scrutinize it and to insist on accountability and responsibility of every single dime. That is why we exist. That is why taxpayers send us here. Someone has to ask the tough questions. I do not want to dampen anybody's spirits. We have a wonderful new President. He has a positive attitude. He is proposing a lot of things and nobody wants to ask a lot of grim questions.
I am going to ask a few, though, because it is my duty to do so. First, how big is this plan? How much will it cost? We have heard some general numbers. It has been stated, although we still haven't seen any details, that it might be between $800 billion and $1.3 trillion, which is one thousand three hundred billion dollars. That is a lot of money. It would be the single largest Government expenditure of all time. Consider the enormity of a trillion dollars. It is the equivalent of paying for the Korean, Vietnam, and Persian Gulf wars at once.
Then, my next question is: Where will the $800 billion to $1.3 trillion come from? Where will we get it?
As I indicated, we are in a deficit now. So we are talking about spending another $800-plus billion. Where does it come from? We will have to borrow every single penny of it from whomever will lend us the money, private investors or foreign countries. We have been depending, frankly, too much on foreign countries. We didn't budget for this $800 billion. We don't have any money in the bank that we can get and pay for it. We don't have any savings we can draw on. All $1 trillion will have to be borrowed. Since loans have to be repaid and you have to pay people to borrow their money--that is what borrowing money is, you borrow it from somebody or some country, and they are not going to give the money for nothing--you have to pay them interest. Every bit of it will have to be paid back. Every American over the years, for generations to come, will have to sacrifice to pay off the debt we incur today.
The United States is, indeed, deeply in debt already, about $10.6 trillion. My generation probably will not be the one to pay most of that back, nor will even our children. It will probably be our grandchildren who will begin to feel the heavy burden of this debt. We should consider that.
Then I will ask this question: What impact will the Obama plan have on the Federal deficit and the national debt? This spending program, virtually all of it, will increase the deficit, which is the difference between the money the Government takes in each year and what we spend. We spend more than we take in, so we have a deficit right now. To fund that deficit, we borrow money. Each year we have been running a deficit, and each year the deficit gets added to the total national debt. One might ask: How do these deficits and debts affect me? Well, when politicians are responsible and deficits are kept small as a percentage of the gross domestic product, we probably don't notice the impact. Interest rates remain low, and debt payments are easier to make. But when we have a sustained and systemic habit of growing deficits, the United States becomes a riskier investment for people who might like to loan us money. Interest rates will go up, and more debt at higher interest rates means the taxpayers have to pay a larger percentage of GDP towards interest on the debt. The most likely way those high payments would be met is by a tax hike. I am not sure that is the most likely, but one way those higher interest payments and higher debt payments will have to be paid back might be a tax hike.
In 2004, President Bush was criticized because, under his tenure after 9/11, after the economic slowdown, he had a big stimulus package, and it led to a deficit of $412 billion. He was savaged for a $412 billion deficit. I thought he did deserve criticism for that. Although it is not well known to most Americans, some work was done in the next years to bring that deficit down. By 2007, it was down to $160 billion, a lot better than $412 billion. That amounted to 1.2 percent of the gross domestic product.
This chart reflects that. We had a $413 billion deficit in 2004. This was the largest deficit since World War II. President Bush was roundly criticized for it. A lot of people felt strongly about it. The next year the deficit dropped to $318 billion; the next year, it was 248. The year before last, 2007, it dropped to $161 billion. We were heading in the right direction.
Then we had the economic slowdown. Those things have a number of different ramifications, one of which is, when the economy slows down, people don't make as much money, so they don't pay as much taxes. So we lost about $200 billion; we expect to lose about $166 billion in revenue this year, according to the CBO, as a result of the slowdown. But last year, including the $160 billion stimulus package, sending out checks, the deficit jumped to $455 billion, the highest we have had since World War II as a percentage of the gross domestic product. That is a huge number.
We had a hearing last Thursday with the Congressional Budget Office Acting Director. A longtime professional budgeteer by the name of Mr. Sunshine did a fabulous job, but his remarks weren't so bright and encouraging. The Congressional Budget Office projects that even without any stimulus package, under current law, the deficit this fiscal year, the one we are already in--we passed the first quarter of it, and it ends on September 30 of this year--will be $1.2 trillion. Remember, last year it was $455 billion, the highest ever. This year we are looking at $1.2 trillion. Senator Conrad, chairman of the Budget Committee and a Democratic leader in the Senate, a good American, called that number jaw dropping. What else can one say?
That does not even include the stimulus package. If we add the numbers as proposed in the stimulus package, according to Mr. Sunshine, that will reach almost $1.8 trillion. So we are talking about a deficit more than three times the largest amount ever. It may sound fine as a businessman. I heard today a very prominent American businessman on Joe Scarborough's show. They asked him about spending and the deficit. He said: Well, we have to do it. They asked: Isn't this going to create financial problems in the future? And the only answer he could give was: Well, we will worry about that later.
I think it is a little late to worry about spending an extra $800 billion. It is a little late to worry about it later. We need to worry about it when we, the entity responsible for appropriating money, are deciding how much to appropriate and for what purpose. We ought to be thinking about it now, before we vote. This includes some of the expenditures for the TARP that they project. That is the $700 billion bailout and some other things, some of which are one-time expenditures. They project next year the deficit will be $871 billion. It might look like we made progress, but $871 billion is twice what this number is, almost. The next year, 2011, it will $572 billion.
Those numbers still are not the full number because they do not include, for example, about $40 billion a year for the alternative minimum tax fix and several other things. So these are numbers based on existing law, and each year we have not allowed the alternative minimum tax to go up. There are other things we extend each year. It does not include extensions of the current Bush tax cuts which would expire in 2010. He is not projecting they will be extended, but some of them, I am sure, will be. Those numbers are correct, technically, but in reality they are going to be larger, in all probability.
This deficit, almost $1.8 trillion, amounts to 8.3 percent of the entire value of the American economy, the gross domestic product. That would be the highest in real dollar numbers maybe ever. As a percentage of the economy, it is the highest since we were in a life-and-death struggle in World War II, with millions of soldiers deployed all over the world putting their lives on the line for this country. We were building airplanes and ships and tanks with all the capacity this Nation had.
Today Mr. Sunshine told us the debt payment we are paying each year out of tax receipts is $200 billion just to pay the interest on the money we already owe. Let me say a little bit about that. Interest rates are oddly at a very low rate today. It is inevitable, though, that people will stop loaning money to anybody, the U.S. Government or anybody else, for 1 or 2 percent. They are going to demand higher interest rates. That is what is going to happen.
The CBO predicts that interest rate amount will balloon in a few years to $450 billion a year annually. So the Congressional Budget Office says, as a result of our profligate spending and huge deficits, we now are heading in a few years to a point where we will be spending $450 billion a year only on interest. I ask, how big is $450 billion?
I will give a couple examples to provide perspectives that are fair to consider. The 5 years of the Iraq war cost $500 billion. We are creating a permanent interest rate payment every year that will have to be paid by our children, by our constituents. Our constituents today will be paying $450 billion every year, just on interest, because we had to spend so much today and last year for responses to crises I am not sure justified this kind of spending.
I certainly think many of our programs deserve to be reformed, eliminated, or increased in efficiency, and a lot of savings could occur. We have not been doing that. All we have been doing is spending more and more, adding to our debt.
Madam President, $450 billion is the equivalent, as I said, of the Iraq war. It is about one-third of the discretionary spending for our country every year. My recollection is that our general fund discretionary spending, including the Department of Defense, is about $1.5 trillion. I think that includes the $200 billion or so for interest now. So that number goes up to $450 billion. It would be about a third of that amount.
We spend more on Social Security and Medicare and entitlement programs. That is on a separate accountability factor. But just on the Defense Department, Homeland Security, our salaries, highways, everything we spend money on--our interest on the debt would be that high. It is not a little bitty matter. It is a big deal.
The Congressional Budget Office predicts that by 2019, the share of Federal expenditures allocated to debt payments will increase from 6 percent to 13 percent of the entire economy. That does not include the stimulus plan the President will be sending to us.
So the next question. A trillion dollars is a staggering sum of money to borrow and pay back with interest. How do we know it will be spent in the most efficient way to jump-start our economy and get the most productivity for the taxpayers?
Well, the truth is, we do not. We know this proposal will have two components. The so-called tax credits and direct spending. Now, I have to tell you, a good bit of this tax cut is temporary and a good bit of it is a sales job. Tax cuts, tax credit: What does that mean? Well, some say 40 percent of that will go to people who do not pay taxes. So how do you get a tax cut if you do not pay taxes? The Government sends you a check from the Treasury just as they did last spring. They got $600. So you get a check from Uncle Sam that is supposed to stimulate things and somehow help the economy.
The Congressional Budget Office, really under the supervision of the Congress--and the Congress is under the control of our Democratic colleagues; they have the majority now--the CBO rightfully scores these provisions not as a tax cut but as direct spending. What else can it be? It is a direct spending of taxpayers' money to send individuals a check to make them happier for the short term. What kind of long-term impact will there be on them, their children, and the economy in the years to come? What will this unwise prospect create?
The Wall Street Journal has pointed out many of these ideas are temporary and that temporary tax cuts do not result in positive economic behavior. But a more permanent change, when people know it is permanent, does have more of an impact in helping our economy.
Permanent tax relief, including--I have to say, please, do not think this is a way to pander to big business. But the corporate tax rate in America is one of the highest in the world: 35 percent. In Ireland, I think it is 11 percent. Most European nations--only one or two nations have as high a tax rate on the corporate community, which gets passed on as a cost of doing business and makes those corporations less competitive in the world marketplace.
We would be in a lot better shape if we could reduce that in a more permanent way. Then those companies could see, well, I am saving on my corporate tax rate. I will not have to lay off as many people. I can keep this company
going. Maybe we can invest and be more competitive when we export because I do not have as much of a burden on me, and it would help this economy. So I want to say many economists truly believe the corporate tax is not that, if reduced, would actually encourage economic growth and create more jobs.
So we know that just rapid expenditures of huge amounts of money have never been a very effective way to grow the economy. Are these spending programs--this $800 billion plus--is that going to end cold turkey in 2 years? I have doubts about it. I want to tell you, I have my doubts about the wisdom of our idea that we can jump-start the economy by pumping $800 billion into it.
So they are talking about--you have heard these numbers--well, we are going to spend a good bit of money on the infrastructure. Everybody likes highways. Everybody knows they are there for generations to come. Highways and bridges have good things that can be said about them and can make our lives better. There is always a line formed whenever there is highway money with people wanting to build more highways and more bridges. Currently, the Federal Government, which spends a lot of money on highways, spends, according to Mr. Sunshine, around $40 billion a year on highways. OK. States match it on a 20-percent basis; 80 percent Federal, States 20 percent. In some areas it is 90 percent Federal, 10 percent State. We use this matching mechanism to fund highway construction in this country, and it amounts to $40 billion a year.
We are talking about $300 billion in 2 years? You take the $300 billion, and cut it in two, that is $150 billion each year. So now we go from $40 billion a year for highways to $150 billion? Well, let's say you only spend $100 billion on it. With $200 billion, that is $100 billion more per year for highways, 2\1/2\ times what we are currently spending.
I would suggest those kinds of figures are unrealistic. When the chips are down, I doubt we are going to see anything like that much money being allocated to highways because it cannot be spent. There are not enough asphalt mixers, there are not enough concrete mixers, there are not enough dump trucks to actually spend that much money. That is a fact. You cannot triple the amount of work. And if you do, the bid per mile and the cost per mile is going to go way up. There is going to be a shortage dealing with everything in construction.
We simply cannot throw money at road construction and infrastructure. It has to be understood that since some of this is dropping off as a result of economic slowdowns, we can put that back on, and maybe a little on top, and keep this thing going at a more healthy rate. That may be possible, and I am willing to discuss that. But we ought not to sell the stimulus package that is being discussed that somehow the biggest chunk of it is going to get spent on highways. Right? So $800 billion. Maybe $30 billion a year extra; so $60 billion out of $800. So $740 billion. Where is the rest of it going to be spent to stimulate the economy, I ask? ``Shovel ready'' they say. I do not know what that means. But I know you could not start off in the next few months and triple the number of highways built in America. There are not enough engineers. There is not enough heavy equipment. There is not enough material to do that. If you were to even try, it would drive up the cost, and so we would spend a lot of money, a lot more. We would make it much more expensive per mile to build highways in America. We have to be careful about that.
Well, they also talk about how there is going to be more money in this bill for the automobile companies, and maybe a bailout for State governments. They need more money too, don't they? So why doesn't the Federal Government--which sort of prints money--why don't we bail out our good friends at the State level? Unemployment insurance is going to need to be expanded. And some are talking about expanding broadband, and, of course, hiring an additional 600,000 Government employees. That is part of what is being discussed here.
As the Washington Post said, of course, many of these items were featured in President-elect Barack Obama's campaign pledges. There was a fine column by Mr. E. J. Dionne, who is openly a good, liberal columnist and has been a pro-Obama writer throughout. Mr. Dionne said it has been rather fortunate for the Obama campaign that he can utilize--and I am paraphrasing now, but I think this is close to the heart of what he said--it is very fortunate for President-elect Obama that all the spending he promised can now be justified, and they can call it a bailout or a stimulus package and not just a big spending program.
So I think we have to ask questions about that. Can we justify this? Fundamentally, every dollar we spend as part of regular Government spending programs or this stimulus program should result in an effective return to the taxpayers. We have no money to waste. We are in a time of unprecedented, incredible deficits. We ought not to waste a single dollar. Cannot we all agree on that?
Finally, my question would be, how will we Americans pay the trillion dollars back? There are three ways: cutting spending in the future. I do not hear anybody saying we need to be cutting spending, not on the majority side here. We talk about education, health care, highways, expanding the number of military personnel. All these things cost money. I do not see any realistic prospect we will see any huge reduction in spending, I have to tell you.
You could raise taxes. But I do not like raising taxes. I have tried to oppose that throughout my career. President-elect Obama says he wants to give everybody a tax break. Who is going to raise taxes in any significant way? Oh, you can tax the rich and get a little out of them when the economy is doing pretty good. When the economy goes down and the rich income drops dramatically, the country's tax revenue also drops dramatically. So I do not think we are going to get a lot of money from that.
One way for it to happen and would be a result more pernicious than many have thought about would be where we would basically debase the currency. We would weaken the value of the dollar. So you borrow $100 billion from somebody, and you pay them back $100 billion, but you printed a lot more dollars, so the dollars they get paid back are less valuable than the ones they gave you when you borrowed it. That is a pretty slick deal, isn't it? That is what you call inflation. There are huge ramifications from that kind of policy that are very damaging to the long-term health of America. We do not need to debase our currency. That is why the price of gold jumped. People get scared the dollar is not going to be worth anything.
So I think the debate we are about to begin is really about individual responsibility and governmental responsibility. We do need to resist the cries of many who have self-interests in this stimulus package.
I heard one prominent businessman make a speech recently. He said: We are going after this money. Well, if we put it out there, every business is going to go after it and be happy to get it. So we have to be responsible. We need to scrutinize it. We need to act in the long- term interests of America.
I believe Congress so far has not done well in responding to the economic crisis we are going through. I think everybody pretty well universally has agreed that the $160 billion send-out-the-checks program did not benefit the economy. I heard a group of well-known economists recently agree that the first $350 billion--remember, the entire Iraq war has cost us $500 billion--that $350 billion in the first tranche of money that has gone out has not helped the economy. So I think we have to be careful. I hope Congress will not fail our constituents again, by making sure that the fiscal illness we are living with now does not damage our children.
I know people are hurting. I know people are worried that their job might not exist in the months to come. If you are working at the clothing store, I am not sure some of these jobs are going to be that helpful to you. But at any rate, that is the kind of thing we are dealing with. People are worried. We are going through a serious downturn. As the CBO expert told us, we are going to come out of this in 2 years, in his opinion--and he was firm about it--whether we did anything or not. He said a stimulus package might help. Another member of the panel said, well, it
should help, but neither one said it was critical to us coming out of the recession.
So whatever we do, whatever monies we spend--and I am not against every idea for stimulating the economy--let's just be sure it is productive. Approving $1 trillion in deficit spending could do more harm than good if we don't do it right.
It is time that we as a Nation stop living beyond our means. We need to get our house in order. We need to know there is no free lunch; that debts will have to be repaid one way or the other--raising taxes, cutting spending in the future, debasing the currency. That is basically the way we can reduce the debt, and those are the only ways we can. We are putting a burden to the future. I know some money invested now might make a positive difference. Let's talk about that and let's see what we can do. But the numbers being floated out and the rapidity with which the program is being proposed creates in my mind a great danger that much of the money will not be stimulative, as it has failed to be in the past, and that much of it will not produce the kind of tangible benefit to which the taxpayers are entitled.
Madam President, I thank the Chair, and I yield the floor.