Mr. President, I wish to turn to the business at hand, which is the so-called economic stimulus package. I have not had an opportunity to offer my personal views on this issue. I do not believe that tax rebate checks and an extension of…
Mr. President, I wish to turn to the business at hand, which is the so-called economic stimulus package. I have not had an opportunity to offer my personal views on this issue.
I do not believe that tax rebate checks and an extension of unemployment benefits will boost the economy. Of course, Americans deserve to keep more of their hard-earned dollars and Washington should spend less of them. But giving people tax rebates and telling them to go shopping will do virtually nothing to grow our economy. Our economy grows--GDP increases--when new goods and services are produced. A one- time shopping spree is not going to encourage a business to hire one additional worker or invest in one additional machine. Only a permanent reduction in tax rates will do that.
Gross domestic product increased by just 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007. While most economists do not forecast that the U.S. economy will enter recession this year, they do estimate it will enter a period of below-trend growth in the first half of 2008, with growth recovering in the third and fourth quarters.
The current unemployment rate is 4.9 percent; down from 5 percent in December. The drop is due to an upward revision in the number of jobs created in December.
The preliminary estimate is that the number of jobs created in January fell by 17,000--the first decline in many months. But note that a very small increase in December job creation was revised upward to 82,000 new jobs. Also, the initial August 2007 jobs reading showed a 4,000 job decline, but it too was revised upward substantially. The January figure could well be revised upward.
Over the past 30 years, from 1977 to 2007, personal consumption has grown steadily and strongly and has not fallen off during economic downturns.
In contrast, during times of economic weakness, private investment declines significantly. We are seeing this very thing happen during this economic downturn as well.
The Treasury Secretary negotiated an agreement with the bipartisan House leadership. That agreement was fairly simple:
It provides a rebate of $600 for individuals and $1,200 for married filers, and gives parents another $300 for each child. The rebate is phased out for individuals with adjusted gross income of more than $75,000, and couples with adjusted gross income. of $150,000.
It also expands the ability of small businesses to expense new equipment purchases for 2008 and gives businesses of all sizes the ability to write off 50 percent the cost of many new depreciable assets placed in service in 2008.
The House bill was passed on January 29 by a vote of 385 to 35.
The administration predicts that the proposal would boost the economy by about 0.7 percent. In reality, that ``growth'' would be borrowed from the future. It would not create new growth.
While I disagree with the central premise of the House-passed bill-- that we need to stimulate consumer spending--I am impressed that the bill was very narrowly focused and that it generally did not include new spending.
While the House bill was not the bill I would have written, I feared that it would become far worse in the Senate. It has.
The bill passed out of the Finance Committee dedicates $10 billion to extend unemployment benefits. Our current unemployment rate is 4.9 percent. Congress has never before extended unemployment benefits when the rate is this low. Because extending unemployment benefits has the effect of lengthening the traditional spell of unemployment by 1 to 2 weeks, this provision effectively eliminates any possible stimulative effect of the bill.
It also included a slightly smaller tax rebate--$500 per individual, $1,000 per couple, $300 per child. Unlike the House bill, the rebate would be available to senior citizens and disabled veterans who otherwise have no earned income. While I generally oppose the idea of rebate checks, this change from the House bill is probably one on which we can agree. But we should understand that fully 42 percent of the rebate approved by the Finance Committee is classified as ``spending'' because it would go to individuals with no tax liability.
The Finance bill also seeks to ensure that illegal immigrants cannot legally obtain tax rebates, something we all support.
The Finance package also includes the same business tax breaks as the House bill but adds a 5-year carryback for net operating losses. This is an important provision that I helped to have included in the Finance bill and I would support adding it to the House bill.
From this point, the Finance Committee bill really becomes a Christmas tree. All kinds of legislative ornaments have been attached:
$3 billion for utilities wind and solar energy production;
$1.6 billion for energy-efficient homes, not particularly wise, given the glut of new homes on the markets;
$323 million for manufacturers of energy-efficient appliances;
$247 million for tax breaks for wealthier investors in marginal oil and gas wells;
$153 million to for energy-efficient commercial buildings; and
$100 million for coal companies owed interest by the Federal government from a court case.
Interestingly, the committee defeated an amendment I offered to patch the AMT for 2008.
The committee defeated an amendment offered by Senator Ensign to provide another repatriation window, during which companies could bring back overseas earnings at a much-reduced tax rate.
The committee also denied me an opportunity to offer a package of individual and business tax provisions that expired at the end of 2007 and other provisions that expire at the end of this year, including:
the teacher tax deduction,
the tuition deduction,
the R&D tax credit,
accelerated depreciation for leaseholds and restaurants, and
extending foreign tax changes that help U.S. multinationals compete-- active financing and the CFC look-through.
At best, proposals for short-term, demand-side stimulus will borrow economic growth and consumer spending from the future, and will appear to create a small boost for the economy.
My real worry is that we are doing a disservice to all Americans if we tell them that increasing consumer spending is a panacea to our economic problems.
We would be far wiser to recognize that our short-term challenge now is deflated home values and a glut of housing, along with insufficient liquidity in the capital markets--none of which will be fixed by this, or the House-passed, stimulus bill.
The only viable remedy is to focus on policies that encourage sustainable economic growth by encouraging work, investment, and entrepreneurship.
We are scheduled to see across-the-board hikes in income tax rates and investment tax rates, as the current rates automatically expire, reverting to the pre-2001 and pre-2003 higher rates--and we know from economists that the only way to encourage sustainable economic growth is to encourage work, savings, and investment through lower marginal rates.
No one is willing to see the child tax credit cut in half, the marriage penalty spring back to life, or a host of other popular provisions disappear.
Washington is slowly coming to the realization that our corporate tax rate of 35 percent hurts American competitiveness. Only one OECD country--Japan--has a higher rate.
In fact, I filed an amendment to cut the corporate rate to 25 percent when the Finance Committee considered the economic stimulus bill. Larry Kudlow had this to say about my amendment:
In my view, this would be the single best pro-growth
measure that Washington could take. It would help create
healthy businesses, create jobs, and raise real wages. It
also would boost the dollar. The minute such a bill is
signed--the very minute--the incentive effects would take
place.
Last year, the Treasury Department released a study of American competitiveness and determined that our high corporate tax rate is in fact a barrier to encouraging businesses to locate in the U.S.
Also in 2007, Charlie Rangel, the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, unveiled a comprehensive tax reform proposal which included a reduction in the corporate tax rate to 30 percent. There seems to be a growing consensus across party lines that our corporate tax rate should be reduced.
Another idea that has been gaining traction is reducing the corporate capital gains rate. This would have a tremendous ``unlocking effect.'' It simply makes no sense to tax corporate capital gains at 35 percent; such a high tax rate only encourages companies to hold on to unproductive assets.
For years and years, investors and Government officials have debated whether the Treasury Department has the necessary authority to index capital gains for inflation without Congress needing to act legislatively. I believe there is a case to be made that Treasury does have the authority, and I hope the President will take this bold step in his final year.
Forty-two percent of the cost of the Senate Finance Committee economic stimulus ``rebate'' goes to Americans with no tax liability.
The percentage of Americans who actually pay taxes continues to shrink and our ability to raise revenue by increasing taxes on ``the wealthy'' is a losing proposition.
In 2004, 37 percent of all Federal personal income taxes were paid by the top 1 percent of taxpayers; the bottom half of taxpayers, by adjusted gross income, pay just 3.3 percent of Federal personal income taxes. We run the very real risk of developing a system whereby a majority of Americans do not have a stake in limiting the size of our Federal Government because they do not have to pay for it.
Congress should consider some research explained in a recent Wall Street Journal column by Art Laffer. Art Laffer explains that the highest income earners are the most sensitive to tax increases and the most likely to plan to avoid tax increases. He found that over the last 25 years, as the top income tax rates fell, the share of income taxes and the dollar-value of taxes paid by the top 1 percent of taxpayers increased dramatically. Over that same period, as income tax rates fell for the bottom 75 percent of taxpayers, both the share of Federal income taxes paid and the dollar amount of income taxes paid fell too.
Laffer points out that the temptation to cut taxes in the lower brackets--or only retain the current rate structure for the lower brackets--while raising taxes for taxpayers in the top brackets is completely counterproductive. The only tax cuts that seem to result in increased revenues are those that affect the wealthiest taxpayers because they have the ability to defer income, invest in tax deferred accounts, invest in tax-exempt bonds, and otherwise plan around taxes.
Art Laffer closes his article with this statement:
Mark my words: If the Democrats succeed in implementing
their plan to tax the rich and cut taxes on the middle and
lower income earners, this country will experience a fiscal
crisis of serious proportions that will last for years and
years. . .
While Congress is focusing on stimulating consumer spending and short-term economic fixes, we must remember that it makes far better sense to plan for long-term, sustainable economic growth. We must not let this deviation into Keynesian economics become an excuse for massive increases in government spending, tax policies geared toward short-term consumer spending; we must not ignore the importance of long-term savings and investment and we must remember to reward hard work with permanently low income tax rates.
As George Melloan wrote recently:
Ironically, even the brilliant John Maynard Keynes disowned
[Keynesian Economics]. After meeting with a group of
Washington ``Keynesians'' in 1944, he said he was the only
non-Keynesian in the room. His brainchild . . . had been
converted from its originally intended limited application to
an all-purpose economic panacea by politicians, academics,
and journalists.
I wish to summarize, in 3 or 4 minutes, what I think is at work here.
My view, contrary to the President and to some others in my party, is that tax rebate checks and extension of unemployment benefits will not boost the economy. Obviously, Americans deserve to keep more of their hard-earned dollars, and obviously Washington should spend less of them, but giving people tax rebates and telling them to go shopping will do virtually nothing to grow our economy.
Our economy grows; that is to say, the gross domestic product increases, when new goods and services are produced. A one-time shopping spree is not going to encourage business to hire one additional employee or invest in one additional machine. Only a permanent reduction in tax rates will do that.
I will share a couple statistics relating to the state of our economy now, particularly as it relates to unemployment.
The current unemployment rate is 4.9 percent. That is down from 5 percent in December. The drop is due to an upward revision of the number of jobs created in December. The preliminary estimate is that the number of jobs created in January fell by 17,000, which is the first decline in months. But note that a very small increase in December job creation was revised upward to 82,000 new jobs, and the initial August 2007 jobs reading showed a 4,000-job decline, but it also was revised substantially upward. So the January figure could also be revised upward.
The point is unemployment is at a relatively low level in this country, and it would be a huge mistake for us to exacerbate the unemployment situation by extending unemployment benefits, as the Senate Finance Committee does.
In addition, personal consumption is growing strongly and steadily, as it has over the last 30 years. It has not fallen off at all. What has fallen off, and this happens during times of economic weakness, is private investment, which has declined significantly, and that is what should be addressed but is not addressed, in the so-called stimulus package. Rather, what is addressed in the stimulus package is, of course, consumer spending which, in this case, is not the solution to the problem.
At best, proposals for short-term, demand-side stimulus will borrow economic growth and consumer spending from the future and will appear to create a small boost to the economy right now, but they are borrowing it from the future. Of course, we are also borrowing $150 billion in order to accomplish this result.
My worry is we are doing a disservice to all Americans if we tell them an increase in consumer spending is a panacea to our economic problems. It is not. We would be far wiser to recognize our short-term challenge now is depleted home values, a glut of housing, along with insufficient liquidity in the capital markets, and none of this is fixed by the stimulus bill before us. The only viable remedy is to focus on policies that encourage sustainable economic growth by encouraging work, investment, and entrepreneurship.
One of the first things we have to address is to make sure we do not suffer a tax increase. That would be the worst thing that would happen, and we are headed for that if Congress does not take action to take that from taking place, which is automatically built into our tax laws. In 2 years, unless Congress does something, we will have the largest tax increase in the history of the country. So we should be signaling right now that is not going to happen.
We should also get in line with the other countries in the world and reduce our corporate income tax rate which, except for Japan, is the highest in the world. That would do something immediately to help.
We should also index taxes, such as the capital gains tax, for inflation. For years, investors and Government officials have debated whether the Treasury Department has the authority to do this. I believe it does have the authority to do it administratively and that we ought to do it. But if the administration doesn't do it, then the Congress ought to do it.
The bottom line is there is a variety of things we could do to actually stimulate economic growth to provide for
the long-term productivity increases in capital expansion and job creation that provide that kind of economic growth. That is what will solve the problem, not a one-time rebate for people who would far rather have a job than a $500 check. So while we are focusing on stimulating consumer spending and the short-term economic fixes, my view is it would make far better sense to plan for the long term and to do those things which provide for actual sustainable growth.
We cannot let this deviation into so-called Keynesian economics become an excuse for massive tax increases and Government spending or tax policies geared toward short-term consumer spending. We must not ignore the importance of long-term savings and investment, and we must remember to reward hard work with permanently low income tax rates. As George Melloan recently wrote:
Ironically, even the brilliant John Maynard Keynes disowned
Keynesian Economics. After meeting with a group of Washington
``Keynesians'' in 1944, he said he was the only non-Keynesian
in the room. His brainchild had been converted from its
originally intended limited application to an all-purpose
economic panacea by politicians, academics, and journalists.
I hope we will not fall into the same trap this year, in 2008, but recognize there are some significant things we could do to stimulate the economy to ensure that the average American family is not burdened with increasing taxes. The first step in that direction is not to go another $150 billion in debt by offering people rebate checks and an extension of unemployment compensation but, rather, by signaling to them we are serious about ensuring there will not be a big tax increase in this country.