Health Care Reform
Mr. President, I wanted to deliver these remarks on the same subject of health care earlier in the week. I had been back home in Arizona during the July recess and had spoken to many of my constituents about the subject. I didn't have the…
Mr. President, I wanted to deliver these remarks on the same subject of health care earlier in the week. I had been back home in Arizona during the July recess and had spoken to many of my constituents about the subject. I didn't have the opportunity to address this subject until today. I note that health care is very much on their minds. They have been asking a lot of questions. My constituents have been following the health care debate, and the majority I have spoken with are very much in favor of reform.
I think all of us in this body realize there are things we have to do to lower the cost of health care and ensure everybody has an opportunity to be covered.
I can also tell you they are very concerned about the reforms that have been proposed by the President. They wonder whether they, in fact, will work to their best interests. Cost is an issue that has come up repeatedly when I have spoken with my constituents. They want to know why we have to spend so much money in order to--allegedly--save money and how much it will cost. I tell them it is projected to cost at least a trillion dollars. This is not a fanciful figure; this is what the two bills pending before the Senate are being scored at, meaning that the Congressional Budget Office has said that is about how much they are going to cost. The ultimate price tag could be even higher because in the case of one of the bills, not everything that is going to be in it has already been scored by the CBO, and as to the Finance Committee bill, it is still very much a work in progress.
The usual reaction people have to a trillion dollar-plus health care bill is that they cannot believe we would want to spend that much money or that we can't afford to spend that much. They know already that there are only two ways the Federal Government can pay for such a massive program: one, either borrow more money or, two, impose new taxes or some combination of the two. Naturally, they don't like either alternative.
Most Arizonans think Washington has already borrowed more money than taxpayers can handle, after the President's $1.2 trillion stimulus bill, the $400 billion Omnibus appropriations bill, and the $3.4 trillion, 10-year budget. Now we hear talk about adding an additional trillion dollars on top of that. The folks in Arizona think that is just too much. In fact, by the end of the fiscal year, our publicly held debt will be about 57 percent of our gross domestic product, and deficits of a trillion dollars a year are projected for the next decade. We just got the statistics for the deficit this year. It is already at $1.1 trillion. By the end of the year, it could easily be another half-trillion dollars above that. This will drive the debt to at least 82 percent of the gross domestic product by 2019. To give you an idea of what that means, the GDP is how much money we make as a country. It would be the same as saying that for a family that has an income of $100,000, its credit card debt is $89,000. Try paying off an $89,000 credit card debt on a $100,000 income. The interest payments on the debt will soon make up the single-largest item in our budget. So, obviously, when we talk about spending another trillion dollars we don't have, my constituents are very wary of this. They are wary about the debt, and, to say the least, they don't think it is fair for Washington to pass another trillion-dollar bill, with the costs being transferred to our children and grandchildren--especially after what happened with the stimulus, which has, frankly, included a great deal of waste and obviously has failed to contain unemployment.
A lot of folks have expressed skepticism that spending another trillion dollars is the right way to reduce health care costs. Frankly, I agree with them. Somebody has to pay the trillion dollars. They are also concerned about the new taxes that have been proposed to pay for this because, in fact, part of this trillion dollars is proposed to be paid for through new taxes. There have been all kinds of ideas proposed, such as a tax on beer, soda, juice, and snack food. Those are really small items, but they hit people right where it counts when they go to the grocery store.
There is also a new value-added tax idea. This hits the small business men and women, who are especially concerned because of the new taxes that some are suggesting they should pay--as much as a 10 percentage point increase in the amount of taxes they would have to pay. This is important because, in our economic downturn today, we know it is small businesses that are going to create the jobs that will bring us out of the recession. This would not be just a job killer but an economic growth and recovery killer with that kind of tax imposed on these folks.
My constituents want to know--and, frankly, I want to know--if the President will fulfill his campaign pledge not to raise taxes one single dime on the middle class and whether he will veto any legislation that includes the kinds of taxes of which I am speaking that would fall directly on families. They believe and I believe there ought to be a different way to achieve the health care we want--in other words, without this new round of spending and taxes.
They have heard the President argue in his pitches for Washington to change our health care system that if we spend
all this money on health care now, we will somehow save money later. Americans have some commonsense questions about this claim: How will the government actually do this? Will their health care be rationed? If they are privately insured, will they be able to keep the health care they already have? Eighty-five percent of persons are already insured and are happy with what they have. Yet proposals in the pending legislation would cause many of them to lose that insurance and go onto government programs. That, of course, then raises questions like rationing, as I have discussed many times before.
A Washington-run health care system would likely try to suppress costs by denying or delaying care. Administration officials are already talking about using comparative effectiveness research for this purpose. This is not a fanciful or hypothetical notion. As we know, this is exactly what has happened in countries such as Canada and the United Kingdom, two countries with government-run health care systems. In a ``20/20'' health care segment, they reported that Norwood, Ontario, holds a lottery each week to give one winner a trip to a family doctor. The show filmed the town clerk pulling a name from a box and calling the name of an elated winner. Is that what we want in the United States? The average emergency room wait in Canada is 23 hours-- if you are even considered sick enough to be admitted. In Britain, in 2007, the government set a goal to reduce the average wait time to see a physician to fewer than 18 weeks. That is 4\1/2\ months waiting to see a doctor. Do Americans want that?
That is how government-run health care works: You make something free and demand soars. To reduce costs, bureaucrats deny or delay treatment or tests or procedures they deem too expensive. The way it works is simple: You set a budget of how much you are going to spend on health care every year. It doesn't matter how sick your folks get; it has to fit within that budget. Think about that for your family. Say you set a budget and you are going to spend no more than $5,000 on health care this year. A good friend of mine in Arizona had an automobile accident; it was very serious. He had to have his spleen removed. He is still in recovery, and it is obviously going to cost a lot of money--more than $5,000. Well, if he set a budget and said that is all he is going to spend, what is he to do? Does he not get the treatment he needs as a result of that accident? You cannot reform health care or reduce costs by rationing care to patients.
One of the things Republicans will insist on is that the way we do the reform doesn't hurt what we already have, which is a system that allows you to get to the emergency room and allows you to see a doctor. You can choose your own doctor. If you have insurance, you get to keep it. We don't want to take care of the few who are unable to get insurance today in a way that requires us to change what everybody else has, if it is already working for them.
It is true that you won't find the words ``ration'' or ``denial'' of care or ``withholding coverage'' in these bills. Obviously, they don't state it that way. But the results are precisely what are required by the policies in the bill. The results are easily masked by all kinds of terminology, but the rules, the forms, the legal obligations, and the provider reimbursement schemes all result in the ability of the government to tell you whether something is going to be covered, whether you and your doctor think it is necessary for your care or not.
I have heard some respond by saying that at least in the Canadian system they may ration care, but everybody has access to a doctor. Not true. The Fraser Institute, a Canadian think tank, released a study this year that found that 1.7 million people--out of a country of 33 million--were unable to see a physician in 2007. That number does not include those who have a doctor but are on a waiting list.
As I said earlier, many of my constituents also worry about losing their current coverage if a new Washington-run health care system is implemented. True, they have heard the President say repeatedly that if you have health insurance, you get to keep it. But they have also heard the other side of the story, and I have read at least one of the bills--in fact, there are two specific provisions--that render this statement untrue--that if you have health insurance, you get to keep it. Not true. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that just part of one of the proposed plans shows that millions of people would lose their existing coverage and be told to enroll in government health care. The Lewin study specifically mentioned 119 million people who would be shifted from their current employer-provided coverage onto the government plan.
Many of my constituents also want to know if the President would veto legislation that has the potential to cause Americans to lose the private insurance they currently enjoy.
There is a final concern, and this concerns me. It goes to America's seniors. We have made some very strong commitments to our seniors through the Medicare Program. Our seniors obviously are more susceptible to needing health care. They have a greater number of health concerns than younger Americans. And we have said to them: We will, through Medicare, ensure that your health concerns will be taken care of. They are obviously very concerned about rationing if Medicare were somehow to be cut in order to raise money to solve the problem for others in our society. That is precisely what at least one of these bills proposes to do--cut Medicare and take that money and apply it to the new costs that we are going to be incurring as a result of this so- called health care reform.
Seniors are worried these cuts in Medicare will adversely affect their ability to get care. They also fret that adding the 47 million uninsured Americans--which would be just for starters--to health insurance rolls, including government insurance rolls, would impact the care they now receive by crowding the system. In other words, leading to wait times, rationing for them or even potentially denial of care. We must not implement a new health care system that would suddenly erode the quality of care for Medicare beneficiaries.
My constituents want high-quality, patient-centered health care. Most already have good health insurance for themselves. They are concerned about its cost. They are also concerned that there are some who need to be insured who are not. But what they want to hear are fresh new ideas about how to achieve this result without, in effect, throwing the baby out with the bathwater; without adversely affecting the system that currently takes care of them, whether it is seniors being cared for in Medicare or it is the vast majority of Americans who are already insured and like the insurance they have. They do not want us to rush a costly new plan through the Congress.
I think the President was correct when he said: If we don't do this quickly, we might not do it at all. Well, what did he mean by that? In effect, what he was saying is that if the American people have a long enough time to study and debate exactly what is being proposed, they may not like what they see. I think that is exactly what is happening here.
There is a bill that is going to be marked up next week in the House of Representatives, and I don't think the American people are going to like what they see in that bill. We have a bill that has been marked up in the HELP Committee in the Senate, and much of my criticisms go to that particular bill. There is one section in that bill, for example, that spends $400 billion over 7 years to subsidize health care for families making between $66,000 a year and 80,000-some dollars a year. Is that what we want to cut Medicare to pay for?
As I said, the more Americans understand the details of these bills, the more questions I think they are going to ask. We owe it to our constituents to allow them the time to understand it and to ask us those questions. I want to be able to go back to Arizona and say: All right, here are the three bills--or two bills or however many there are--and here is what they do. Do you like it or not? If not, how would you change it? We need the time and the ability to get the reaction from our constituents if we are going to be true to our position as representatives of the people.
So when the President says: If we don't do this quickly, we might not do it at all, he is probably right. But it is better to get it right; to take our time
to do it right and not make mistakes, than to rush something through that is going to add $1 trillion in new spending; that is going to potentially impact the coverage we already have, potentially impact Medicare for our seniors and perhaps not achieve the results we want. This is one of the most important things this Congress--the American Congress--will have done in years. It is complicated, it is hard, and we have to get it right.
One of the first things a physician learns in medical school, when confronting a patient to see what is wrong with that patient and to begin the treatment, is to, first, do no harm. It is possible to do harm to a patient. So the physician, first of all, is admonished: The body is a wonderful thing, it recovers pretty well; don't do anything to harm. The same thing is true with our economy and with the policies with respect to health care. There are a lot of good things being done in health care--physicians are working very hard to take good care of us, most people have good insurance, seniors rely on Medicare. Let's not do harm to what we have in order to take a small segment of our population and make sure they can get insurance.
That is the primary position we are taking when we say: Let's don't rush this. Let's do it right. At the end of the day, we can all be proud of the fact that we have reformed our health care system to reduce, not increase, some of the expenses and to ensure that those who don't have insurance can, in fact, be covered.
I said I wished to give these remarks earlier in the week, having talked with a lot of my constituents in Arizona. I also wished, toward the end of this week, to comment on the President's trip to Russia. He is going to be returning home soon, and his trip to Russia produced some very important announcements, which I wished to discuss today.
President Obama's Visit to Russia
I am going to switch subjects now and discuss the President's trip to Moscow and his summit with the President of Russia.
The most significant object of that summit, as we know, was the discussion of further strategic arms reductions. I personally believe it is important that the verification and confidence-building measures of the 1991 START agreement not expire without some measure to continue them, possibly including a legally binding replacement treaty. I know that is one of the purposes of the President's visit. But I am also cognizant of the fact that a follow-on to the 1991 START agreement does not address the most current threats to the United States and the West; namely, those posed by nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. The two subjects are barely related.
For example, the threat from Iran and the history of Russian support for the Iranian nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program is well known. It is probably even going on today. This should have been at the top of the President's agenda with Russia, if, in fact, he is going to address the threats that are most currently before us, rather than a decades-old arms control agreement with Russia.
Additionally, there is the ongoing nuclear weapon ambitions of North Korea. Some press reports suggest it may be sharing its technology with countries such as Syria and Burma. Given the well-known willingness of these rogue states--and I speak of North Korea and Iran--to support terrorism, their unchecked nuclear ambitions will surely hasten the day when terrorists are able to acquire nuclear weapons. I believe nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism are the greatest threats to our Nation today, and we should be focused much more on those threats, as I said, than going back and negotiating an arms control agreement with Russia, which obviously is not a current threat to the United States.
The main focus of the President's trip when he was in Moscow appears to have been on the subject of a strategic arms reduction treaty with Russia. That being the case, the Senate has a great responsibility--if the administration seeks our advice and consent by submitting the treaty to us for ratification--to understand what the proposal is and to provide our advice to the President before it is negotiated and, if appropriate, our consent to ratify. Obviously, the Constitution requires this process of advise and consent when it comes to treaty making.
Here are some of the questions I think we need to answer. First of all, what does the United States get from such a new treaty when it appears that the Russians are on their way to reaching the levels of weaponry announced without a treaty? They are going to do it anyway.
Second, why has the United States bent to Russian demands to take tactical nuclear weapons off the table when the Russians have a 10-to-1 advantage in tactical nuclear weapons over the United States and have openly talked in their military doctrine about using tactical nuclear weapons in conflict?
How will the administration provide for the modernization of U.S. nuclear forces, including the warheads and the complex of infrastructure that sustains them and the nuclear weapons delivery systems, the bombers and the missiles and submarines that must accompany any START ratification process? That is perhaps the most critical question of all.
A number of these questions and recommended courses of action have recently been articulated by some of this country's leading experts on arms control and nonproliferation policy, including Ambassador James Woolsey, Dr. Fred Ikle, Ambassador John Bolton, and many others.
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent to have printed in the Record, at the conclusion of my remarks, a document entitled ``U.S.-Russian START Renewal Negotiations: Guidelines to Protect U.S. Interests.''
I thank the Chair.
I also urge my colleagues to study materials recently released by the New Deterrent Working Group involved with the Center for Security Policy, a respected think tank here in Washington, that has studied these issues for years; and also a very objective and important guide for how we should approach our thinking on these negotiations from the Hudson Institute. These are outstanding compilations of expert opinions for Senators to familiarize themselves with as we head into a treaty ratification process. They are too lengthy to insert in the Record, but I am happy to provide these papers to any of my colleagues who would like to read them.
Another important question concerns missile defense. Just before the summit, it appeared the White House was taking a strong line in refusing to accept Russian demands to link missile defenses with a follow-on treaty. The Russians have said: We are not even going to talk about the START numbers unless we can also talk about U.S. missile defense. The Russians don't like it. They would like to have us put some limitations on that. The administration recognized not only should there be no constraint on the development of missile defenses, but, moreover, any treaty--any treaty--that limits U.S. missile defenses would be dead on arrival in the Senate if we tied the two subjects together.
This past week, I joined Senators Wicker, Johanns, McCain, Hatch, Lieberman, Ben Nelson, and Begich in sending a letter to the President in which we confirmed that ``linking missile defense plans to offensive force negotiations runs contrary to American strategic interests and would undermine our security.''
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent to have printed in the Record the letter to which I just referred.
Notwithstanding what I have said, buried in the joint understanding--which has now been made public--reached by President Obama and Medvedev is inclusion of the following language suggesting an accession to the Russian demand to include missile defense in the follow-on treaty:
A provision on the interrelationships of strategic
offensive and strategic defensive arms.
I ask unanimous consent that the text of the Joint Understanding be printed in the Record at the conclusion of my remarks.
This last statement is a dangerous connection to make and one the administration must not negotiate. U.S. missile defenses exist to protect against ballistic missile threats by rogue regimes and the threat of accidental or unauthorized launches. They are not about Russia. Consequently, we should not allow Russia to attempt to limit our defenses, and that is what I fear these words from the Joint Understanding may allow to occur. Such a linkage in the START agreement will be rejected by Members of the Senate.
I would also like to call attention to a curious statement by the President which was quoted in this past Sunday's New York Times:
It's naive for us to think that we can grow our nuclear
stockpiles, the Russians continue to grow their nuclear
stockpiles, and our allies grow their nuclear stockpiles, and
that in that environment we're going to be able to pressure
countries like Iran and North Korea not to pursue nuclear
weapons themselves.
The fact is, the United States has not been growing or even modernizing its nuclear stockpile. Why did the President make such a false statement? Yes, the Russians are growing theirs, at least modernizing it. Britain and France are modernizing their stockpiles, though not growing them, as far as I have seen in the press. India, Pakistan, and North Korea are all growing their stockpiles; and, of course, we are all familiar with Iran's actions. All of this has occurred in the absence of the United States growing its stockpile. What the President said is not true. In fact, it has all occurred while the United States has undertaken substantial nuclear force reductions. We haven't modernized our nuclear weapons, and we haven't conducted an underground nuclear test for 17 years. One would think this history would put to rest the naive assumption that the U.S. movement toward disarmament will be reciprocated by other nations, including those that threaten our national security.
I would also like to submit for the Record a Wall Street Journal op- ed written by Steve Rademaker, former Assistant Secretary of State for International Security and Nonproliferation in the last administration. I ask unanimous consent to have printed in the Record at the conclusion of my remarks that letter.
Mr. Rademaker correctly observes:
The critics are not impressed that by 2012 the U.S. will
have reduced its deployed strategic warheads by 80 percent.
They will not be satisfied if the U.S. reduces by 99 percent.
So long as there is one nuclear weapon remaining in the U.S.
inventory, he says, they will point to this as the root cause
of nuclear proliferation.
As I indicated a few moments ago, there are real concerns facing the Senate at this time as we consider the START follow-on treaty. It is imperative that the President understand the true situation as he negotiates with his Russian counterparts.
This is all the more important as we begin to understand the highly significant reductions the administration apparently wants to negotiate in a follow-on agreement. According to the Joint Understanding from which I quoted before, the President plans to reach an agreement that represents a significant departure from current force levels.
I note that the 1,700 to 2,200 deployed strategic nuclear force level--actually on the high end of that range--was considered the minimum force level required for deterrence and assurance just last year when the Departments of Energy and Defense issued an unclassified white paper, ``National Security and Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century.''
Given yesterday's announcement, I am curious to understand how estimates of necessary force levels could have changed so dramatically in the 10 months since that paper was issued. I am also very concerned about the implications for our triad and for our conventional arms modernization, if we lock in a launcher limit at anything close to 500.
The triad is the combination of our strategic bomber force, our intercontinental ballistic missiles based on land in silos, and ICBMs in submarines. Those are the three parts of our strategic triad. If we were to reduce the numbers as dramatically low as this paper would indicate, it is very clear the triad would be jeopardized; that is to say, not all elements of it would have the weaponry to be part of our strategic deterrent.
Moreover, these numbers would suggest that parts of this triad can be used for conventional purposes. Bombers can drop high explosive bombs. They don't just drop nuclear weapons. A missile--we have a lot of cruise missiles that send high-explosive warheads to their destination. It doesn't have to be a nuclear warhead. If we reduce the number of delivery systems down below a certain level, we not only impact our strategic nuclear deterrent but also our conventional deterrent and conventional capability.
This may be very advantageous for Russia. In fact, Russia is headed to a low level anyway because of their economy. But I believe it is a grave risk for the United States and our allies. I think these are issues that will warrant the highest level of scrutiny by the Senate. We can't be rushed in our work. These are very important existential questions.
I note that the Senate had over 425 days between the signature on the START I agreement and the eventual ratification of that treaty. There were 1,119 days between the signing and ratification of START II. And the Chemical Weapons Convention allowed the Senate 1,563 days of review, deliberation, and debate. The last successful arms control treaty with the Russians, the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, or SORT, permitted the Senate 287 days to review.
I say again, there is no need for a rush. As the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday, July 8:
The White House Coordinator for Weapons of Mass
Destruction, Security and Arms Control, Gary Samore, said on
Sunday that the Administration may have to enact certain
provisions of a treaty by executive order and on a
`provisional basis' to meet the December deadline.
Clearly, there are options available to ensure that the Senate has all the time it needs to thoughtfully consider a treaty and to make sure a nuclear weapons modernization program is in place and funded before the Senate proceeds to ratification of the START follow-on.
Mr. President, according to press reports, Russian President Medvedev has indicated that his nation would like to reduce the number of strategic launchers several times below the number currently permitted under START. This is reflected in the launcher limits outlined in the Joint Understanding.
This sounds good, but it is unclear that Russia is actually giving anything up.
In recent testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Dr. Keith Payne, a former official of the Defense Department and a member of the bipartisan Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture, cautioned ``We should be very careful about moving toward lower launcher numbers because it would provide significant advantages for the Russian Federation, but significant disadvantages for U.S. strategy.''
As Dr. Payne noted in his testimony, Russia's strategic ICBMs, SLBMs and bombers will drop dramatically with or without a new arms control agreement.
Specifically, Dr. Payne stated: ``within 8 or 9 years, the number of Russian strategic launchers will have dropped from approximately 680 launchers (some of which already are not operational) to approximately 270 launchers simply as a result of aging of their systems and the pace of their modernization program. In contrast, the service life of existing U.S. systems extends several decades.''
Dr. Payne continues: ``Despite spending up to 25% of the Russian military budget on the strategic forces, Russia's strategic nuclear forces will decline steeply with or without arms control.''
Consequently, Russia isn't giving up anything by agreeing to these reductions. At the same time, reductions in delivery vehicles could have consequences for the U.S., in terms of prompt global strike capabilities nd conventional strike modernization.
Dr. Payne also wrote about these facts in a recent Wall Street Journal piece, and I ask unanimous consent to print it in the Record as well.
Additionally, in order to get a follow-on START agreement with Russia--one that appears to be much more to Russia's advantage than ours--we have also decided we will not seek to get the Russians to give up a very real advantage they possess: their tactical nuclear weapons, also known as nonstrategic nuclear weapons.
While the United States and Russia have a rough equivalence in their strategic nuclear weapons, there is a significant imbalance in tactical nuclear weapons that favors Russia.
This imbalance is exacerbated by the fact that Russia maintains an active nuclear weapons production complex, while the United States does not.
According to the recently concluded report of the bipartisan Perry- Schlesinger Commission, there is a growing asymmetry between United States and Russian nuclear weapons capabilities thanks to a longstanding problem whereby the Russian Federation has maintained far greater numbers of tactical nuclear weapons than the United States.
According to the commission, the Russians have approximately 3,800 of these weapons, while the United States has only a few hundred.
And according to a recent CRS report, the Russians may have as many as 8,000.
Despite this asymmetry, we are told that the forthcoming START follow-on will not deal with Russian tactical nuclear weapons, at Russian demand.
Yet, it is clear that our allies who rely on our extended deterrent are increasingly concerned.
For example, the Perry-Schlesinger report stated: ``The combination of new warhead designs, the estimated production capability for new nuclear warheads, and precision delivery systems such as the Iskander short-range tactical ballistic missile (known as the SS-26 in the West), open up new possibilities for Russian efforts to threaten to use nuclear weapons to influence regional conflicts.''
And according to that report, ``The United States should not cede to Russia a posture of superiority in the name of deemphasizing nuclear weapons in U.S. military strategy. There seems no near-term prospect of such a result in the balance of operationally deployed strategic nuclear weapons. But that balance does not exist in nonstrategic nuclear forces, where Russia enjoys a sizeable numerical advantage. As noted above, it stores thousands of these weapons in apparent support of possible military operations west of the Urals. The United States deploys a small fraction of that number in support of nuclear sharing agreements in NATO. Precise numbers for the U.S. deployments are classified but their total is only about five percent of the total at the height of the Cold War. Strict U.S.-Russian equivalence in NSNF numbers is unnecessary. But the current imbalance is stark and worrisome to some U.S. allies in Central Europe. If and as reductions continue in the number of operationally deployed strategic nuclear weapons, this imbalance will become more apparent and allies less assured.''
It is therefore inexplicable to me that we will not be negotiating with the Russians about reductions in those nuclear forces.
Moreover, I am concerned by suggestions that discussions of these forces will have to wait for the ``next treaty'' which may not ever arrive. In the meantime, this follow-on agreement may lock in a significant disadvantage for the United States and our allies.
In recent months, it has become clear that the state of our nuclear deterrent is in need of serious attention.
As high an authority as Secretary of Defense Robert Gates warned: ``At a certain point, it will become impossible to keep extending the life of our arsenal, especially in light of our testing moratorium. It also makes it harder to reduce existing stockpiles, because eventually we won't have as much confidence in the efficacy of the weapons we do have.''
Secretary Gates continued this argument when he said: ``To be blunt, there is absolutely no way we can maintain a credible deterrent and reduce the number of weapons in our stockpile without either resorting to testing our stockpile or pursuing a modernization program.''
This is a statement of significant import. Secretary Gates has warned that without a modernization program, such as the Reliable Replacement Warhead RRW, which Congress rejected during the last administration, we will be unable to reduce the number of weapons we maintain.
In fact, we are not even certain we can modernize without testing, but we would be a lot closer to knowing the answer to that question if Congress had approved the RRW studies.
As the Perry-Schlesinger Commission noted, our nuclear weapons and their delivery platforms are long overdue for a needed modernization program and will continue to experience safety, reliability and credibility problems until that modernization is in place.
In fact, even in its Interim Report, the commission stated: ``High confidence in stockpile reliability not only is important for maintaining deterrence, it is also vital for making substantial reductions in the size of our stockpile.''
Thus, it should not be surprising that the commission made the following findings and recommendations that are of such importance that I want to read them into the Record in their entirety:
i. For the indefinite future, the United States must
maintain a viable nuclear deterrent. The other NPT-
recognized nuclear-weapon states have put in place
comprehensive programs to modernize their forces to meet new
international circumstances.
ii. The Stockpile Stewardship Program has had some
remarkable achievements. But in recent years, the level of
funding provided to support these safeguards has been
inadequate.
iii. The Life Extension Program has to date been effective
in dealing with the problem of modernizing the arsenal. But
it is becoming increasingly difficult to continue within the
constraints of a rigid adherence to original materials and
design as the stockpile continues to age.
iv. As the reductions have proceeded over the period since
the end of the Cold War, the potential to deal with technical
surprise has been reduced, as the diversity of types of
weapons in the stockpile has shrunk.
v. The infrastructure that supports two thirds of the
strategic deterrent triad--the SLBMs and ICBMs is not being
sustained.
Mr. President, it is clear that not only is a modernization program for our nuclear weapons, the complex that supports it, and the delivery systems associated with it long overdue, it is also inextricably linked to safely reducing our nuclear arsenal further and must be considered by the Senate simultaneously to, if not before, the START follow-on is submitted.
Such a modernization program should take into account issues raised by the Nuclear Weapons Council in its December 24, 2008, letter to the NNSA administrator.
I ask unanimous consent to print the letter in the Record at the conclusion of my remarks.
It should also take into account the commission's recommendations, which noted that as long as modernization takes place within current policies regarding testing and military characteristics, there should be no political controversy.
The administration should request a modernization program that in its first year includes: increases to stockpile surveillance; LEP studies for W76 and B61 that add safety, reliability and credibility; increases to directed stockpile work; certification and safety at the Nevada Test Site; accelerated funding of the Los Alamos CMRR facility and the Y-12 UPF; and, increases to advanced computing platform and code work.
Mr. President, lastly, I wish to discuss an important but so far overlooked component of the pending arms control discussions, namely Russia's history of violating its obligations.
The unclassified version of the 2005 State Department Report on Adherence to and Compliance with Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments makes clear, and not for the first time, that Russia has not lived up to all of its agreements under the 1991 START agreement.
Dr. Payne noted this in his recent testimony, and I quote, ``in my opinion, the most important of these violations has been discussed openly in Russian publications. It is the Russian testing of the SS-27 ICBM with MIRVs in direct violation of START. The SS-27 is listed as a single-warhead ICBM and can only be tested and deployed with a single warhead under START. Russian Sources place the number of MIRVs on this forthcoming missile at 4 or more.''
These are not the only such issues regarding the Russians compliance with START. I ask unanimous consent that the START section of the unclassified Compliance Report be printed in the Record at the conclusion of my remarks.
Additionally, the Commission on the Strategic Posture noted that the Russians are in violation of their commitments concerning tactical nuclear weapons under the 1990-91 Presidential Nuclear Initiatives.
I remind my colleagues these are the same tactical nuclear
weapons that Russia refuses to discuss in the follow-on
treaty, a demand the administration seems to have accepted.
Clearly, if the United States is going to negotiate a successor to the 1991 START agreement with the Russians, we must have a way to reconcile past compliance failures and ensure that future violations, if any, are resolved in a timely manner.
As I have articulated, there are significant issues that the Senate will have to follow closely and scrutinize as a part of the process of advice and consent.
This is a two-way process of consultation between the administration and the Senate.
I remind my colleagues and the administration, it is more important that this be done right than quickly.
Arrangements can be made to ensure that the provisions of START that enjoy almost universal support in this body do not expire, as administration officials have freely admitted.
I urge the administration to continue consulting regularly with the Senate, including the National Security Working Group that I cochair with my colleague from West Virginia, Senator Byrd.
I yield the floor.
Exhibit 1
U.S.-Russian START Renewal Negotiations--Guidelines To Protect U.S.
Interests
Recognize that the U.S. nuclear deterrent force is a key
element in the defense of the United States and of our allies
and friends.
U.S. nuclear umbrella is crucial non-proliferation tool.
The U.S. nuclear umbrella is perhaps the most important
nonproliferation tool we possess, as many of our allies and
friends rely on our deterrent force. Absent a U.S. nuclear
deterrent seen to be credible, effective and safe, those
nations would have to consider developing their own nuclear
weapons.
Analyze first, then negotiate. The U.S. Defense Department
should complete a proper Nuclear Posture Review, as mandated
by Congress, before the U.S. concludes a new treaty with
Russia on further nuclear weapons reductions.
Limit Russian advantage in ``tactical'' nuclear weapons--A
new U.S.-Russian agreement should aim to reduce the current
Russian superiority over the U.S. in numbers of ``tactical''
nuclear weapons. Russia has approximately ten times the
number of such weapons in the U.S. arsenal.
Address before U.S. leverage shrinks--The U.S. will have
less leverage to address this issue once a START renewal
agreement has been concluded.
Recognize the significance of Russia's large advantage in
``tactical'' nuclear weapons. The distinction between
strategic and tactical nuclear weapons is an artifact of the
Cold War that facilitated arms control agreements on very
high levels of nuclear forces.
Today, the size of nuclear arsenals is much smaller and the
importance of large numbers of smaller-yield weapons is much
greater.
To U.S. allies and friends, all nuclear weapons are
strategic.
An agreement that preserves the large imbalance in total
numbers of deployed nuclear weapons in Russia's favor will,
over time, affect the views of U.S. allies and friends on the
reliability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella.
U.S. policy for decades--in administrations of both
parties--has been to maintain a nuclear capability second to
none. That policy would be undermined by an agreement that
further reduces strategic weapons while leaving so-called
non-strategic weapons unlimited.
Recognize existence of risks in strategic reductions below
current levels--There is no compelling reason for the U.S.
and Russia to reduce deployed strategic nuclear warheads
below the current range of 1700-2200, as set in the Strategic
Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT). This level of offensive
strategic nuclear arms, the lowest in decades, was based on
analysis that took into account the dangers and uncertainties
of the security environment. Quickly reducing to an arbitrary
number like 1500, does not take into account these risks.
Don't pay for what's free--According to credible Russian
sources, Russia's strategic nuclear weapons will be reduced
by approximately 60% over the next decade in any event--with
or without a START renewal treaty--due to the aging or
planned modernization of systems. The United States should
not make concessions for the purpose of inducing Russia to
make reductions that will occur anyway.
Certain reductions may be harmful--Whether a reduction
below the 1700-2200 range is prudent depends on a number of
considerations, especially preserving deterrence and taking
account of all potential adversaries.
Preserve deterrence and extended deterrence--Any reductions
should allow the U.S. to preserve not only deterrence of
threats directly against the U.S. but also extended
deterrence--for allies and partners who depend on the U.S. to
deter potential nuclear aggressors.
Effect on triad--In particular, any reductions should allow
the U.S. to maintain a robust nuclear triad of land-based,
sea-based and bomber-delivered weapons.
Importance of triad--It is important to maintain the triad,
lest the survivability and flexibility of the U.S. strategic
posture be undermined.
Consider all potential adversaries--In assessing the
sufficiency of the U.S. deterrent, the potential nuclear
capabilities of all possible adversaries of the U.S. and of
allies and partners who depend on that deterrent should be
considered, not just the capabilities of Russia.
Don't incentivize proliferation--The U.S. nuclear posture
should not be constrained to the point that other current or
potential nuclear powers come to believe they can create a
nuclear arsenal that would give them significant strategic
leverage against the U.S.
In any case, exercise caution in limiting delivery
systems--In the interest of stability and flexibility, the
U.S. should not agree to reduce the number of delivery
systems in a way that would increase the vulnerability of
our deterrent (including our extended deterrent that
protects U.S. allies and partners).
Don't incentivize MIRVs--For the same reasons, a new
agreement should not restrain or penalize ``de-MIRVing''--
that is, converting multiple-warhead missiles into single-
warhead missiles.
Severe limits on the number of delivery systems create
pressure for the parties to arm missiles with multiple
warheads.
Preserve U.S. ability to modernize for safety and
reliability--Any agreement should preserve the right of the
U.S. to develop new warheads to be able to react to
unforeseen circumstances.
A crucial requirement: A comprehensive modernization plan--
The Senate should not consent to any treaty until the
Administration has proposed to Congress a satisfactory,
comprehensive modernization plan that fulfills the
modernization recommendations of the bipartisan Congressional
Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States,
especially the maintenance of a safe, reliable and credible
U.S. nuclear deterrent, including an extended deterrent for
the protection of U.S. allies and partners.
Don't constrain missile defense--A new U.S.-Russian arms
control agreement should not constrain the U.S. ability to
develop and deploy missile defenses.
Don't constrain advanced conventional weapons--A new U.S.-
Russian agreement should not constrain or penalize (1) U.S.
development of advanced conventional--that is, non-nuclear
weapons, including those capable of strategic strike, or (2)
U.S. deployment of such weapons to replace nuclear weapons.
Take account of unpredictability of technology
developments--We cannot now predict what conventional weapons
developments may be possible.
Consider effects on programs of the future--Thus, the
effect of a given treaty limitation cannot be measured only
by how it would impact programs already on the books.
Address Russian compliance problems--Devise a mechanism
that ensures treaty violations are investigated and parties
to an agreement adhere to their obligations.
From the outset, the Russians have failed to comply fully
with their obligations.
For example, according to an August 2005 U.S. State
Department report, Russia has prevented U.S. inspectors from
verifying warhead limits on certain ICBMs.
Update START verification--A key U.S. objective in an
agreement with Russia should be to update START verification
provisions to take account of new circumstances and fix
problems.
Verification regime extendable--Obama administration
officials have a sense of urgency because the START Treaty
expires in December 2009 and they want to ensure that the
treaty's verification regime does not lapse. But the US and
Russia can agree to extend the verification regime without
having to rush to reach agreement on further weapons
reductions.
Endorsed by:
John Bolton, Ambassador to United Nations, Under Secretary
of State for Arms Control and International Security (G.W.
Bush);
Seth Cropsey, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for
Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict (G.H.W. Bush);
Jack David, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for
Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction and Negotiations Policy
(G.W. Bush);
Paula DeSutter, Assistant Secretary of State for
Verification, Compliance and Implementation (G.W. Bush);
Michael M. Dunn, Lieutenant General, U.S.A.F. (ret.);
President, National Defense University;
Eric Edelman, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy (G.W.
Bush)
Douglas J. Feith, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy
(G.W. Bush);
Fred C. Ikle, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy
(Reagan); Director, Arms Control and Disarmament Agency
(Ford);
Robert Joseph, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control
and International Security (G.W. Bush);
Stephen Rademaker, Assistant Secretary of State for
International Security and Nonproliferation (G.W. Bush);
Abram N. Shulsky, Director, Strategic Arms Control Policy,
Office of Secretary of Defense; Secretary of Defense
Representative to Defense and Space Talks (Reagan);
James Woolsey, Director, Central Intelligence Agency
(Clinton).
Exhibit 2
Joint Understanding
The President of the United States of America and the
President of the Russian Federation have decided on further
reductions and limitations of their nations' strategic
offensive arms and on concluding at an early date a new
legally binding agreement to replace the current START
Treaty, and directed that the new treaty contain, inter alia,
the following elements:
1. A provision to the effect that each Party will reduce
and limit its strategic offensive arms so that seven years
after entry into force of the treaty and thereafter, the
limits will be in the range of 500-1100 for strategic
delivery vehicles, and in the range of 1500-1675 for their
associated warheads.
The specific numbers to be recorded in the treaty for these
limits will be agreed through further negotiations.
2. Provisions for calculating these limits.
3. Provisions on definitions, data exchanges,
notifications, eliminations, inspections and verification
procedures, as well as confidence building and transparency
measures, as adapted, simplified, and made less costly, as
appropriate, in comparison to the START Treaty.
4. A provision to the effect that each Party will determine
for itself the composition and structure of its strategic
offensive arms.
5. A provision on the interrelationship of strategic
offensive and strategic defensive arms.
6. A provision on the impact of intercontinental ballistic
missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles in a non-
nuclear configuration on strategic stability.
7. A provision on basing strategic offensive arms
exclusively on the national territory of each Party.
8. Establishment of an implementation body to resolve
questions related to treaty implementation.
9. A provision to the effect that the treaty will not apply
to existing patterns of cooperation in the area of strategic
offensive arms between a Party and a third state.
10. A duration of the treaty of ten years, unless it is
superseded before that time by a subsequent treaty on the
reduction of strategic offensive arms.
The Presidents direct their negotiators to finish their
work on the treaty at an early date so that they may sign and
submit it for ratification in their respective countries.
Signed at Moscow, this sixth day of July, 2009, in
duplicate, in the English and Russian languages.