Mr. Speaker, on the departure of the South Korean President, we have to look at the North Korean situation with new eyes. I think it is clear that U.S. pressure on North Korea will not be effective since North Korea is a very poor country…
Mr. Speaker, on the departure of the South Korean President, we have to look at the North Korean situation with new eyes. I think it is clear that U.S. pressure on North Korea will not be effective since North Korea is a very poor country under 50 years already of U.S. economic sanctions. There are few, if any, U.S. options to bring effective nonmilitary pressure to bear. It is also clear that the South Korean Government will not issue new effective pressure on North Korea. But Chinese pressure can be effective.
China is the primary donor to North Korea, and despite cool relations, China supports North Korea to prevent a collapse. China so far has rejected pressure because it fears any pressure may hasten the very collapse of North Korea they intend to prevent. Therefore, finding a motivation for China to help generate effective pressure from North Korea is asking the question, what do the Chinese regard as worse than risking a North Korean collapse? And the answer is the potential of Japanese nuclear armament.
Few of us have realized that Japan owns more plutonium than in the United States nuclear arsenal. Japan has a large nuclear power program. It is seeking to reduce its reliance on foreign uranium by recycling nuclear fuel that will make its plutonium stockpile grow even larger.
Today Japan owns 38 tons of plutonium, 5 tons located in the country and 33 tons at its European processors. That is enough for 7,000 nuclear weapons. Japan is also accelerating its production of plutonium. Once the Rokkasho-mura reprocessing plant comes online in 2005, Japan will be able to produce 100 tons of plutonium by 2015. North Korea recently complained in public about 206 kilos of missing plutonium from Japan's Tokai-mura facility.
Japan is also rethinking its defense policy. Prime Minister Koizumi is leading efforts to expand Japan's defense role. Japan's self-defense force won Diet approval recently of purchasing long-range strike aircraft, including four 767 tankers; power projection, including the formation of an air brigade; and missile defense, including software, hardware and AEGIS class cruisers.
Japan's perception of the North Korean threat is growing. North Korea shot a No Dong missile over Japanese territory in 1994. They shot a Taepo-dong missile over Japan in 1998. In December Japanese Coast Guard vessels clashed with North Korean spy boats.
There is a nuclear debate beginning in Japan. In April, opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa openly discussed the nuclear option. In May, Chief Cabinet Secretary Fukuda generally hinted at revising defense doctrine. And last month, Defense Minister Ishiba stated Japan might conventionally strike North Korea first.
Japan is also developing delivery vehicles. Japan's H-2 civilian rocket program is very advanced, and Japan is participating in missile defense focused on software, nose cones, infrared seekers, warheads and rocket motors.
All of these facts should be shared at the highest level with Japanese leaders. We can help China to understand that if North Korea fully develops a nuclear arsenal, Japan may develop a deterrent.
Japan's nuclear arsenal would quickly outpace China's. France's nuclear submarine costs just $13 billion and would be well within Japan's means. And Japan nuclear armament would encourage other Asian nations to also arm, even Taiwan.
These facts should be shown to be clear that the Chinese should act clearly to diffuse the North Korea crisis.
Article 9 of Japan's Constitution commits to no use of war to resolve international disputes. And it takes a two-thirds vote of both houses to amend the Constitution. Support for Article 9 in Japan now in the face of the North Korean threat is just 50/50. Japanese Prime Minister Sato formally studied a nuclear weapons program in 1967, and Japan would have to leave the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty that it ratified in 1977.
Some have said the Japanese reactor-grade plutonium would not be fully usable, but the U.S. detonated a reactor-grade plutonium device in 1962, and in order to discourage other countries from using plutonium as a fuel, President Carter declassified data on the feasibility of a reactor-grade plutonium for nuclear weapons in 1976.
We need to help China understand that other Asian nations maybe forced to develop a nuclear deterrent. To curb this crisis, China must act, otherwise there will be an historical reversal of power in Asia, something the Chinese should realize and seek to avoid.