Mr. President, I appreciate the minority leader's teeing up my comments today and introducing what I am going to be speaking about, which is a topic he addressed briefly, and that is the 6-month period of time since we passed tax reform.…
Mr. President, I appreciate the minority leader's teeing up my comments today and introducing what I am going to be speaking about, which is a topic he addressed briefly, and that is the 6-month period of time since we passed tax reform. It was this week, 6 months ago, that we had a historic vote--the biggest tax reform in over 30 years. We are beginning to get some data that is really worth discussing and analyzing, and I would strongly disagree with the characterization by the minority leader.
I was home in Pennsylvania recently, traveling around the State, as we all do when we are not in this town. On one recent occasion, I was talking to small business owners in Lock Haven, PA, and Bloomsburg, PA. At one of the companies, the small business owner was there, and he was really enthusiastic about how this tax reform is helping his small business. It is actually a very typical story that I am hearing across Pennsylvania. I mention him because, as it happens, his company is in the carpet business, and they happen to make the very carpet that I am standing on right now. They provide the carpeting for the floor of the U.S. Senate.
He talked about the fact that, because our tax reform really totally redid the rules--especially on the business side, but on the individual side as well--it allows him to access new capital and purchase new equipment. The equipment that he needs to expand his business is more affordable under our tax rules now. So that is exactly what he is doing. He is expanding his business, and he is very enthusiastic about it.
This, of course, is not an anomaly and it is not specific to Pennsylvania. It is across the country. Already we have had companies-- over 600 businesses employing over 4 million American workers--announce that they will immediately start paying bonuses, increasing wages, making larger pension contributions, but directly sharing their tax savings with their workers. This started within days of passage of the bill, and it has continued.
By the way, I am only counting the companies that specifically cited tax reform as the reason they are able to do this and only companies that are so big that they are picked up by the press when they make these announcements. There are thousands and thousands of companies that have done the same thing, but we will never hear about it because the Washington Post and the New York Times doesn't report when Sal's Pizza Shop makes a change in its compensation policy but, the fact is that it is happening.
By the way, there is also another not very widely reported benefit that Pennsylvania families are enjoying, and that is, again, directly as a result of our tax reform and the lower tax burden that we now have on our utilities. Electric and gas company rates have declined. There has been a very significant rate reduction. In fact, it is $320 million at an annual pace in Pennsylvania. That means that every family who has to buy electricity as a way to heat their homes is experiencing this savings as well.
Those are kind of anecdotal facts. But what is the big picture result so far? The facts and the data are overwhelming. The economy is on fire. That is what is going on right now. This economy is growing at a tremendous pace, and it is really on fire by any meaningful measure. One of the most important measures is with jobs. That is the whole point of a booming economy--isn't it?--to really create opportunities for individuals and families to earn a living and support themselves and improve their standard of living.
The most recent jobs report that came out in May posted a 3.8-percent unemployment rate. Unemployment is just 3.8 percent. That is the lowest level we have had since April of 2000. It remains a mystery to me how our Democratic colleagues and the Senate minority leader can somehow think it is a bad thing when the unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in more than 18 years.
It is not just the overall unemployment rate. The African-American unemployment rate in May was 5.9 percent. That is the lowest rate ever recorded since we started breaking out different ethnic groups in the unemployment numbers. The Hispanic unemployment rate is very close to an all-time low at 4.9 percent. Another amazing statistic that came out in this May's jobs report is that we now have more job openings in America--6.7 million--than all of the unemployed people. I am not sure that this has ever happened before, and certainly not in decades, but there are more job openings, more ``help wanted'' signs, and there are more job possibilities than there are people seeking jobs. That is just a fact of our economy right now.
What does that mean? That means there are a lot of opportunities for people. If you are unemployed right now, there is a chance to go to work today, because that is the amount of demand for workers that is exactly what we said would happen if we would encourage the kind of economic growth that we are seeing.
I must say, I don't know where our colleague from New York, the minority leader, gets his data from. That is completely contrary to what he said. All of the data consistently show that there are increases in hourly earnings and wages. Wages are going up.
We have waited way too long for this to happen, but it is happening now. There was a 2.7-percent increase in hourly earnings in May. This is a wage increase of 2.8 percent for people who are in nonsupervisory work. So wage earners who are working on an hourly basis in a nonsupervisory capacity are seeing an even somewhat faster acceleration in their wage growth. That means workers are going to have a better standard of living. That is what it means.
When we passed our tax reform, we had two big goals. One was to lower the tax burden on individual Americans. How well did we do on that? Well, 93 percent of all the individuals and families filing owe less in taxes this year than they would have if we hadn't reformed the Tax Code--93 percent. For most of the 7 percent who don't have a savings, it is because they are higher income people who live in jurisdictions where they pay high State and local taxes, and we diminished the ability to deduct that. So there are wealthy individuals--a handful-- who are paying a little bit more.
It is also a fact that the wealthier people pay a larger percentage of the tax bill now as a result of our tax reform, because we made sure that the folks at the low and medium end of the wage spectrum would get the biggest percentage benefits, and they have. We also wanted to make sure that we are making business competitive and encouraging investment in the United States instead of somewhere else in the world.
One of the standard measures in how that is working is how our economy is growing overall, what our GDP number looks like. Well, it has been amazing. Year after year, we were happy if we could get to 2 percent growth, and our friends on the other side were suggesting: Well, we may just have to accept the fact that America can't grow very fast any more. The boom years are behind us, and now we just have to accept that we have this secular stagnation.
There was this whole theory about how it was inevitable that America would have slower and meager growth and few opportunities in the future. Some of us said: That is nonsense. The reason we have slow growth is because we don't have the policies that will allow the natural entrepreneurial energy and spirit of Americans who invest in us and encourage excellent growth. That was the debate. We said tax reform will encourage that growth.
What has been happening? We are on track to have over 3 percent growth this year. It will be more than 50 percent above the kind of growth we have been getting. The Atlanta Fed GDP Tracker is projecting that for this quarter, growth could be as high as 4.7 percent, which would be absolutely stunning. The CBO is projecting that for the full year, growth will be 3.3 percent. This is an economy that we were told could never really manage to eke out better than 2 percent. We are proving that wrong. The American people are proving that wrong.
Another aspect of our reform was that we said it didn't make sense to create the dynamic where a company's overseas subsidiary, after they earn a profit and pay taxes on that profit in the local jurisdiction in which they are operating, if they return that money home, pay another tax on it. We said
we have to get away from that system because nobody else in the world punishes multinationals that way, and it discourages investment in the United States. Companies will try to avoid that second layer of taxes by leaving the money overseas. Well, the money sitting and piling up overseas doesn't help to create American jobs. So we made new reforms that we thought we should and, lo and behold, what is happening? The foreign earnings that had been retained abroad are coming home.
It is already happening. There is now more money being shifted from overseas subsidiaries of American-based multinational companies, coming back into this country, than the money they are earning. It is because not only are they shifting back home their profits, but they are taking their past profits and they are sending that back home as well.
Dividends received from abroad, money taken from overseas and invested back in America is $340 billion in the first quarter of this year alone. That is an all-time record--a huge amount of money being invested back into the United States.
Why is this happening? Why are we getting all of this economic growth and this return of money? I would state that I can think of two big categories that are contributing. One is just the overall optimism about the business environment, the economy's strength. Why are businesses making the decision now, today, in 2018 to invest more than they did before, to hire more, to increase wages, and to bring back this money? Well, it is because we lowered the cost of investing, hiring, and bringing back this money. We have created an environment that is just more conducive. There is optimism about our economy and the belief that this is a good time to invest in America and to grow a business. The numbers are off the charts.
In fact, the National Federation of Independent Business, a small business organization across the country representing probably hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of businesses, including really small mom-and-pop operations, but also more substantial businesses, measured the confidence in our economy and our ability to continue to grow and thrive. It is off the charts. The index of overall confidence in May was 107.8. That is the second highest reading in 45 years. That is what we are talking about. That is unprecedented optimism. We have an 18- month streak now of what the NFIB, the National Federation of Independent Business calls ``unprecedented optimism.''
We are at an all-time high of small business owners reporting increasing wages for the people that work for them. There has never been a time when there has been a higher number of small business owners actually raising the wages of their workers.
As to sales trends, the growth in sales for small businesses is at the highest level since 1995, 23 years ago.
The expansion plans--plans to build new factories, to open up new facilities, and to increase the capacity that they have now--are the most robust in the history of the survey. Never before have we seen stronger numbers than this.
The top concern or the top worry that small business owners have used to be the burden of taxes and regulation. It isn't anymore. Now it is whether they will be able to find the workers they need to fill the openings they have in their companies. Fifty-eight percent of firms are actively trying to add workers right now. Right now, they are out looking to employ more people--58 percent. It is really amazing.
By the way, this optimism isn't just from small businesses, it is also consumers. Retail sales in May were up 5.9 percent above 1 year ago. That is almost a 6-percent growth from a year to the next in retail sales. That is consumer confidence. That is all of us going to the store and buying whatever we buy.
The University of Michigan consumer confidence index was the highest it has been in years in May, and March of this year was the only recent time that it was even near this level. That is because workers are seeing an increase in their paychecks. They are seeing less money withheld, and they are seeing wage increases. They are feeling good about their economic future, and that is really important.
So optimism is an important part of it, as well as an attitude that government isn't hostile to business and that the regulatory environment isn't in the ``gotcha'' mode but in a cooperative mode, with a tax code that encourages investment. All of this clearly contributes to optimism.
Let's drill down a little bit into one of the biggest drivers of this economic growth, and that is business investment. When we decided to make the reforms to our Tax Code on the business side, we said one of the things we have to acknowledge is business investment--the investment in new equipment, in capital. That had really dropped off badly. Without new equipment and capital, workers don't become more productive. If workers aren't more productive, they can't get higher wages over time. We felt like that was the heart of what was holding back our economy back in the Obama era and, to some degree, before. We stated that we can lower the cost of investing more in your business, investing more in equipment, and spending and deploying capital. We can lower costs by treating it more rationally from a tax point of view, specifically, by allowing full expensing in the year in which the capital is deployed. Cap-ex spending has responded even better than I actually had hoped. To be honest, I can't express how really thrilling it is to see the kind of growth we are having.
Let's start with the broader measure of this. The broader measure of this is business investment. This is a broader category that includes things like equipment, but it also includes things like structures, like a new building. It is really amazing.
CBO said that the first quarter of this year--they said that for the first quarter of 2018--before tax reform, they said: Maybe you can get to 4 percent. I think their estimate was 4.4 percent. After tax reform, they said: Maybe you can get that up to 5.6 percent. The actual number was 6.8 percent.
What is really amazing is the acceleration we have seen. These were the quarter-over-quarter changes in business investment during the latter part of the Obama years. That last year of the Obama administration, 2016, is negative. That means that every quarter, businesses were actually investing less than they were investing the same quarter the previous year. Our capital pool was shrinking. The amount of investment was going in the absolute wrong direction.
Look what happened. The tax reform wasn't passed in these first two quarters. You might say: Well, why did it improve then? I think that was because of confidence. I think that was because people realized that we had a new government, a new administration, and that we were going to work hard on trying to get tax reform done and that we were going to begin lowering the regulatory burden. Look what happened. We had a total turnaround from a lack of investment, a decline in capital spending, to an increase. Then when we passed tax reform, look how much higher it surged still. These are huge numbers. That is overall business investment.
The second chart--we can drill down into what I think is the subset of business investment, the category of business investment that is probably most responsive to our changes in tax policy, and that is equipment. That is where a small business owner or a big business can really turn the dial. They can decide to buy a new piece of equipment, buy another machine, buy another truck, buy the equipment that they need to grow. That is an easier decision to make than building an entirely new plant.
Let's look at this subset. These are tools, machines, technology, trucks, computers. That is the on-the-ground spending of capital that goes right into the hands of workers so that workers can become more productive. What has happened to this?
Again, look at what was happening. The spending from one year to the next in the latter part of the Obama administration was going down. These are negative numbers because the capital being spent on business equipment was actually declining.
Look at what has happened since. We changed the environment, changed the regulatory environment, changed the mood, and it turned positive. Then when the tax reform kicked in--and it is true that we didn't pass the tax reform until the end of December, but we
wrote in from the beginning and we made it clear that we would make the expensing provisions retroactive to earlier in the quarter. People saw that, and this has taken off.
I think the picture illustrates extremely well the tremendous change, the tremendous acceleration, the growth in equipment investment.
The reason I want to underscore this is because this is a very strong indicator of future growth. This isn't some sugar high--that the economy just got a lot of cash thrown on it, and so there is a little, temporary blip. This is the kind of stuff that allows an economy to continue to grow and create more because what we are doing is we are expanding the productive capacity of our economy. We are building new plants. We are deploying new equipment, new tools, new machines, new software, new computers, new vehicles. All of those things allow us to produce more goods and services. So not only do you get the surge from when you actually build and put those items to work, but those items continue to be used by workers for years. A new piece of equipment at a factory is going to be there for many years to come. A new truck lasts for a number of years before it has to be replaced.
This kind of growth is exactly the growth we were hoping for, and it is really the powerful driver and the reason we can be optimistic. I think this is the reason businesses and consumers are increasingly optimistic about the future. They see a strong economy, and intuitively they understand that this strength is real and that it is likely to be enduring.
The important thing about this--and I can't stress this enough--is that when a business decides to invest more in its business, to buy more modern equipment, to buy new equipment, what happens is the workforce becomes more productive. A company doesn't go out and invest capital to make its workers less productive. That never happens. It invests capital so that its workers can produce more.
It is the more productive workers who get higher wages. The example I like to use is, if you ever go to a construction site and they are digging the foundation for a building, you might very typically see somebody who is operating a backhoe, and you might very typically see a guy with a shovel. He is doing some of the work too. They are both digging a hole in the ground. Who is getting paid more? It is always the guy operating the backhoe because he is much more productive than any human being can ever be swinging a shovel and he has a set of skills that allow him to be productive. So when we are encouraging this kind of investment, we are creating more opportunities for people to earn more.
This is very encouraging news about the first 6 months of this year, the first 6 months after the tax reform. I think it is going to continue to get better.
By the way, there is good news on the Federal revenue side as well. We have numbers through the end of May. June is not finished yet. For the first 5 months of 2018, the tax revenue collected by the Federal Government in the environment of our tax reform was $26 billion more than the same period last year. So we lowered rates, we reformed the Tax Code, and we are collecting more revenue than we were collecting before we did the tax reform.
By the way, April was off the charts. April's numbers came in for the actual tax revenue, and it was $30 to $40 billion more than what CBO was projecting. It was the biggest surplus month in the history of the country.
It is only June. We have to see how the rest of the year plays out. But the fact is, we have wages growing, we have employment growing, we have businesses growing, and that means that all of the above are paying taxes, and they are going to be paying more. This is exactly what we said to our colleagues. We said: If we can create the incentives for stronger economic growth, we are going to have a bigger economy. When there is a bigger economy, you can tax it at slightly lower rates and still get more revenue because of the added size of the economy. This, folks, looks to be exactly what is happening, and this is what is so exciting.
For my constituents, it means that if you are out of work, you have choices. There are more job openings today in America than there are unemployed Americans. There are opportunities. If you have a job, wages are probably moving up. That is what the data shows. Overall, wages are rising at an accelerated pace. Businesses are as confident as they has ever been. That means they are likely to continue to invest and continue to create more opportunities.
I would just say that 6 months into this, our tax reform is working. It is working for our constituents. It is working for our economy. American business is more competitive. American workers are more competitive. The benefits are widely shared. I am very enthusiastic about this, and I am looking forward to the data that is continuing to come in response to the most dramatic tax reform in over 31 years.
I yield the floor.