Health Care Reform
Thank you, Mr. Speaker, and I thank the gentleman for yielding to me earlier in the hour. I think an open dialogue is a good thing, and I hope the gentlemen will be here to hear the rebuttals that I am about to provide to the statements…
Thank you, Mr. Speaker, and I thank the gentleman for yielding to me earlier in the hour. I think an open dialogue is a good thing, and I hope the gentlemen will be here to hear the rebuttals that I am about to provide to the statements that they made in the previous hour, starting with the bill that passed out of the Energy and Commerce Committee and other committees, H.R. 3200, which is the foundational bill to the health care act, the national health care act that Democrats are seeking to pass.
And regardless of the statement that there is general language in the bill that says nothing in this bill funds illegals, the fact remains that the amendment that was offered by the gentleman from Georgia (Mr. Deal), which was language that is tried and true, that existed in the Medicaid legislation that we have used for at least a decade that requires proof of citizenship, that amendment was voted down in Energy and Commerce 29-28, resulting in an open-door policy where there are no restrictions to keep the bill from providing access to benefits to illegals or to people who are here legally but are barred under the 5- year bar.
In fact, the standard that exists was a standard that required proof of citizenship. Democrats first took that apart when they passed an expansion of SCHIP, the State Children's Health Insurance Program. They took that from a 200 percent of poverty, and the first time it passed the House it went to 400 percent of poverty. Mr. Deal offered the same amendment in that bill to put in language that existed in law before it was struck out by the expansion of SCHIP, and it was voted down on almost a party-line effort.
We know if there are not provisions which require proof of citizenship, then there aren't provisions that are going to prohibit illegals from getting benefits under the bill. The Congressional Budget Office knows that. They scored that language in SCHIP as costing $8.9 billion to fund health insurance for illegals and to provide Medicaid to illegals because it removed the citizenship standard. Removing the citizenship standard, according to the Congressional Budget Office, on H.R. 3200, the health care bill, would provide for access to those benefits under the bill for as many 5.6 million illegals. And that's the score that came out from the Congressional Budget Office.
Another nonpartisan organization is the Congressional Research Services, and they also concluded there weren't restrictions in H.R. 3200, the health care bill, so that would result in those benefits going to illegals who would apply. And we know how fast the grapevine works and how effectively people can game the system, and no one should be in a position of responsibility in this Congress if they can't understand that equation, especially if they are on the committee.
And it is not just Steve King making this statement. It is the Congressional Budget Office on at least two different occasions, rendering a judgment on that specific language of the Deal amendment, and it is Congressional Research Services. And by the way, it goes on down the line and a number of other entities, including the President, who finally had to address it and say we are going to have to write something in the bill to protect us so it doesn't fund illegals. And it also includes the Senate, which took the position that they would address the language.
So why do you have to fix it if it doesn't fund illegals the way it is? And I believe that the President stood here and called a group of Members of Congress who were exactly right on their facts, I believe he accused them of not being honest. And directly, he said, We will call you out.
Well, I'm saying this: The President got it wrong. Maybe he has it right now, but these gentlemen have it wrong, and they need to go back and check their facts. The amendment was voted down 29-28. The Deal amendment required proof of citizenship. When you remove the proof of citizenship requirement, the Congressional Budget Office and the Congressional Research Services and every nonpartisan, objective evaluation comes to the same conclusion: We will be funding illegals if we don't have the language in there. That is the only language that is going to be satisfactory. And by the way, I don't think Senator Baucus has it in his bill yet, although he has pledged to do so, and we will watch that language very carefully as it unfolds over in the Senate.
So yes, illegals would get health care under this system unless we write the language in that sets the standard so that they don't.
The statement that was made by the gentleman, Mr. Altmire, with the public option there would be no subsidies. The facts of the health care bill don't support that. First of all, it is going to take capital to set up the public option as a national health insurance company. If you set up a national health insurance company, it is impossible to do so without putting capital in, without injecting some billions of dollars to jump-start a national health insurance program that would compete directly with the 1,300 private health insurance companies that we have.
That is not what you call a no-subsidy situation. That is called a subsidy situation. Putting capital in to compete against the private sector is subsidy.
What do we suppose will happen if we put $10 billion into the front end of this national health insurance program and we find out that it becomes insolvent? Do we then let it collapse or does this Congress at a later date decide we are going to have to put some billions of dollars in there to keep the national health care plan up?
Under these majorities, under this Pelosi Congress, I guarantee you they will borrow money from the Chinese, if necessary, in order to subsidize a national health care plan. It isn't going to go any other way. They have worked for 30 or 40 years to try to establish a national health care, and they are not going to allow it to go under because it falls a little short on some kind of promise that there won't be subsidies. Yes, there will be subsidies, and any rational person who understands history will know that.
The argument that a national health care plan will compete on a level playing field, a level playing field with referees that will be chosen by the government, not by the private sector, and I will make a point.
This, Mr. Speaker, is the formerly embargoed flowchart that actually depicts the language that exists in H.R. 3200, the national health care plan. We call it the Organizational Chart of the House Democrats' Health Plan. This is the government plan. This is the government option configuration. This creates at least 31 new agencies.
Now, down here at the bottom, I just direct your attention to these two purple circles at the bottom. This is where the crux of the matter is. The gentleman, Mr. Altmire, made the statement that the public option, there wouldn't be any subsidies and they would compete on a level playing field. Well, here is how this field is regulated, and it will not be a level playing field.
Oh, by the way, anything that is a white box is existing programs or agencies. There is Medicare, SCHIP, Medicaid. But the existing private insurers in this little box here, Mr. Speaker, once the bill is passed, these private insurers, this is 1,300 health insurance companies in this little box. That is how many private insurers we have. Those traditional health insurance plans, the policies, there are approximately 100,000 different varieties of policy combinations available across the United States. These policies would have to qualify to become qualified health benefits plans. Now, if there is going to be a qualification set up, I think it is not possible to presume that all 1,300 companies and all 100,000 policies will be qualified under this bill.
This bill doesn't define what will be required necessarily in the health insurance policies. It gives that authority to the Health Choices Administration. The Health Choices Administration commissioner would run that shop with his commission, and they would make the decisions then on what would be the standards for the health insurance companies--these providers here--what would be the standards for the 100,000 health insurance plans which would qualify to go into this purple circle here called qualified health benefits plans.
So for all of this, the rules will be set by the Health Choices Administration commissioner. The new Health Choices czar will write all of those rules. If he has to write the rules, you don't get to call it a level playing field because the rules will be written so the Federal Government can compete. That's the difference in the approach here, the idea that it is a level playing field. It's not. My question was, why are you afraid of the competition? Well, I'm not afraid of the competition. I think we have competition in our health insurance companies. I think that they're afraid of the competition or else they would support the proposal that almost every Republican supports, and that is, allow Americans to buy health insurance across State lines. That expands the competition dramatically, Mr. Speaker.
So there is a fear of competition. There is a fear of letting the free market provide that competition and giving people the portability that they need. There is a real fear also of addressing lawsuit abuse. Lawsuit abuse is the medical malpractice component of these costs that the industry places between 5.5 and 16 percent of the overall health care costs. The number that comes from the person whom I trust the most is 8.5 percent. If you multiply that 8.5 percent across the costs of providing health care in America, over the space of time, it's $203 billion or $2 trillion for the sake of the budget window of 10 years that we deal with. That $2 trillion would pay for everything they wanted to do, but every one of them will stand in the way and block the lawsuit abuse that could actually fund their socialized medicine because the trial lawyers are telling them that they can't address it.
So there are a lot of things that we would like to do. We would like to provide portability, and we would like to fix the lawsuit abuse problem, and we would like to be able to buy health insurance across State lines, provide full deductibility for everybody who pays a health insurance premium, provide transparency in the billing so we can actually have some real competition out there and allow people to expand the HSAs so that HSAs can transform themselves, under good management and good health, into retirement plans, pension plans when one reaches Medicare eligibility age. Those are some of the things on health care.
Mr. Speaker, I feel compelled to rebut some of the statements that were made in the previous hour. And as much as I get along with the gentlemen that were making their presentation, I clearly disagree with a lot of their conclusions. But they have their talking points down pretty well, given what comes out of the DCCC.
I came here tonight, though, to talk about the missile defense shield and the issue with Eastern Europe. I believe the President of the United States has bargained away a very, very important shield that was essential to the negotiations that were going on with Iran. And in their persistent and relentless effort to develop a nuclear capability, not only a nuclear weapon but a means to deliver it, and if they can develop that means to deliver it along with a nuclear weapon, they have said that they want to annihilate Israel, and they eventually want to annihilate the United States. This would put them very closely within the umbrella of being able to strike many places in Europe as well. In the chess game that is going on, in the poker game that's going on, and in the Monopoly game that's going on in the United States, it is something that is very high test. It's very high risk.
We have with us tonight one of the real leaders in this issue who understands the physics, the technology, the politics, the global approach to this, Putin's involvement in this chess game, of him seeking to reconstruct the vestiges of the former Soviet Union, the dynamics of the psychology of the mullahs in Iran, the necessity for the Israelis to defend themselves, and the necessity and the constitutional responsibility for Americans to do the same. I am happy to yield as much time as he may consume to the gentleman from Arizona, Mr. Trent Franks. Thank you for coming down, Mr. Franks.
I thank the gentleman from Arizona, and I look forward to the colloquy that we will have, and I know I've asked the gentleman from Missouri to add a broad view to this.
I just would recap the presentation that we've listened to here, which is precisely worded and is, I think, precisely accurate. It researches some conclusions that I don't think anyone who has followed this in a logical fashion can avoid:
As I understand this, we have been setting up the nuclear shield in Poland and in Czechoslovakia. It takes about 5 years to get it set up. The anticipation was that the Iranians wouldn't be ready for about 5 years. At about the time the President capitulated on this, we had a report that was leaked that maybe Iran could be ready a lot sooner, in maybe as soon as a year.
So I'll just direct your attention to The Wall Street Journal, to Mark Helprin's article. He has a unique way of observing what, I think, the gentleman from Arizona has articulated so well.
Helprin writes: What we have here is an inadvertent homage to Lewis Carroll. We're going to cancel a defense that takes 5 years to mount because the threat will not materialize for 5 years, and we will not deploy land-based interceptors in Europe because our new plan is to deploy land-based interceptors in Europe later.
Does the gentleman from Arizona care to comment on the accuracy of that statement?
In the gentleman's opinion, does this capitulation on the part of President Obama make it more or less likely that the Israelis will be compelled to strike at the capabilities of Iran?
Reclaiming my time, as I look at this and at the strategic location of Israel and at the 12 to 14 minutes that it takes for a missile to get from Iran to Israel and at the 12 to 14 months for Iran to have the capabilities to do so, the odds of being able to slow Iran's development down of nuclear weapons because of any diplomatic maneuverings that might come with regard to sanctions--economic sanctions, negotiations, blockades, threats of anything--have diminished dramatically because the club has been laid down by President Obama; the shield has been laid down by President Obama, and it sends the message to Iran:
Accelerate your efforts on the 17 to 200 centrifuges that you have.
So, from my view, it puts Israel in a position where they may have no choice. If they wait 12 to 14 months to make their decision, the decision may be coming too late at that period of time.
A third alternative, I might suggest, would be if the people in Iran could successfully rise up, could take that country over and could move towards peace.
I know the gentleman from Missouri has got an opinion on this subject matter. I would be very happy to yield so much time as Todd Akin will consume in laying out the parameters of the view of this as he sees it.
Mr. Akin, thank you for coming to the floor tonight.
As I listen to the descriptions that have been delivered here in ways by the three of us tonight, it takes me back to a memory that I believe 1984 was the year, if I remember correctly, that Jeane Kirkpatrick stepped down as the Ambassador to the United Nations. It wasn't a very big article. It was a little thing, about page 3 or 4, and it was in the Des Moines Register. I read that, and it stuck with me all that time.
I should go back and get it verbatim, but I am very close. She said we are in the middle of the cold war. If you remember, it was the height of the cold war at that time and Reagan's first term.
She said, what is going on in this cold war, this great clash of the two titan superpowers, is the equivalent of playing chess and monopoly on the same board. The only question is--remember the arms race? The only question is will the United States of America bankrupt the Soviet Union before they checkmate us militarily? Do we bankrupt the Soviet Union economically before the Soviet Union checkmates us militarily?
We know what happened as it unfolded. On November 9, 1989, 20 years coming up here in a month and a half will be the celebration of 20 years of the Berlin Wall come crashing down. That wasn't just the symbol of the Iron Curtain, that was the Iron Curtain. The Soviet Union's economy couldn't sustain this.
Well, Putin has said that's the greatest disaster of his time. Now we have watched him out on this chessboard seeking to checkmate the free world. It's very early in Putin's game, however, while he understands the monopoly game a little better, having actually built some wealth at least temporarily with the high energy prices that he has. We have watched Putin maneuver around the globe.
I would point out that the Russians went in and essentially made an offer in Kyrgyzstan that they couldn't refuse. They are in Kyrgyzstan. They cancelled the lease that we had on our airstrips that were there, which shut off our ability to be able to freight military supplies into Afghanistan. The Russians did that.
Then they had the temerity to turn to us and say, oh, never fear. We will be happy to haul that freight in for you for a price, and you can always trust us to do that in a reliable fashion. With a straight face, go in and interfere in our relations with Kyrgyzstan and make them a better offer than we are making, then turn around and say now that we have this under control, we will make sure that we will freight this equipment in, and you can trust your military operations are going to continue. That's one piece of the chessboard.
Another piece of the chessboard that Putin is playing is a little over a year ago he went in and invaded Georgia. He shut down the oil that went through Georgia. If I remember right, it's 1.2 billion barrels of oil a day that goes through Georgia on a pipeline. There is a train that hauls crude oil through Georgia. They have got natural gas pipelines that go through Georgia. The nation of Georgia is, if you are a chess player, it is the square on the chessboard that if you will notice, in a highly contested game, it almost invariably comes down to where you have a whole series of pieces that are focused on one square.
Someone will put some pressure on a square on the board, and the other--the opponent will have to put a competing piece to cover that, and then you back it up with another, another, another. That square becomes the whole game that is going to be fought out in that single square.
Georgia is the square. It's the square that energy has to go through from the energy that's on the east side of the Caspian Sea to get through Georgia to get over to the Black Sea where it can go on out and then into the shipping lanes in the rest of the world and go on around Europe and everywhere else. Natural gas and lots of it, oil, and a good supply of it, and Putin went in and controlled it. Now he has backed off a little bit, but he has said he can do whatever he wants to shut that oil off.
What do we hear from the Germans, for example? They say, well, of course a nuclear powered Iran is preferable to a military strike to take it out, as if that was an unquestionable fact. In reality, they haven't done the calculation what Mr. Franks calls nuclear jihad.
Additionally, the Russians shut off the fuel going through, the gas going through to Germany a year ago. It was a year ago January that happened. The Germans said, well, don't worry about that, that's only about 30 percent of our overall gas supply so it really doesn't put that much of a crimp in us. And, by the way, we have created some alternatives. We are going to build another pipeline that comes through in the north. From where? Russia, to make themselves more dependent on it.
As I watch Putin make these moves around the world and bring the resources into Iran that Mr. Franks has talked about, and we are naive enough, myopically naive enough to accept or even consider that there is a rational argument that somehow the President capitulated on missiles in Eastern Europe and he got a quid pro quo of some kind for it. I would pose this question beyond rhetorical: Is there anything in either one of your gentlemen's imagination that would be worth pulling the missiles out of Eastern Europe and capitulating and betraying the Poles and the Czechs and the rest of the region when they say that we have sold them out and stabbed them in the back, sold them out to the Russians and stabbed them in the back? How could a President get a trade, a quid pro quo? What could it possibly be?
I had one of the defenders of the White House say to me, well, it would be because surely the President got something for it. Maybe he got a promise that Putin would help negotiate with Iran to slow down their nuclear development capability.
Really. It's been expanded.
I am looking for some imaginary response. What could the quid pro quo be? What would be worth giving up a shield, a shield against the nuclear capability of Iran, and diplomatically, economically, tactically, strategically? Does the gentleman from Arizona have any ideas?
Reclaiming my time, I just contemplate sometimes the naivete that can take place when you look around the globe. I remember going up to Canada and picking up some of their history books and reading the things in history from a Canadian perspective versus an American perspective. That's the first time I realized that everybody doesn't understand history the same in the world. You understand it from your own perspective.
I took a legal trip down to Cuba and traveled there with a professor of Cuban history for several days, and he began to tell me about the Spanish-Cuban-American War of 1898. I never thought Cuba had anything to do with it. I thought it was the Spanish-American War. So there's a couple little snapshots.
I take you back to late February of this year, sitting in Moscow with former Prime Minister Gorbachev, who gave a lecture to me and a number of Members of Congress that he could still be ruling Russia and the Soviet Union and could have held the entire USSR together if he'd chosen to do so.
But he identified the German will for unity, and so he decided to go forward with glasnost and perestroika and open up the borders and bring about what was--let me say the ``devolution'' of the Soviet empire willingly. What a breathtaking view of history. He said the United States had nothing to do with it. And I'm sitting there listening to that.
He also wanted to know if there were any Republicans in the room, so he identified me right away. He accused me of going hunting with Dick Cheney.
In any case, the philosophy that the United States had nothing to do with ending the Cold War, that that clash of titans wasn't resolved in that economic and military tactical arena that Jeane Kirkpatrick talked about, but only because of the good will of Mikhail Gorbachev recognizing the desire for German unity, when you see that and you look at the European philosophy that dialogue is progress.
They came to this Capitol in September of 2003, the ambassadors to the United States from France, Germany, and Great Britain, to plead with us--wasn't quite a plea--to argue to us and try to sell us on the idea that we should open up dialogue with Iran to talk them out of a nuclear capability. At that point I said, What are you willing to do? They said, We want dialogue to open.
Okay, then what? Are you willing to go to the United Nations for resolutions, are you willing to do sanctions, are you willing do blockades? Are you willing to lay the ``or what'' line out there that says if you cross this line, then we will by force resolve this issue? And if that happens, where are you going to be on that day and with what? And they just backed away from that like they had seen a ghost. Their entire mission was, dialogue was progress.
Now if we've got a viewpoint, a European viewpoint that dialogue is progress and you can always talk away your differences, that's a philosophy that doesn't fit the American viewpoint. We don't go to the Neville Chamberlain School of Diplomacy, as perhaps Obama did.
Then you have to also put into that the mindset of Putin, the Russians, Gorbachev, the mullahs in Iran, the Islamic approach, the nuclear jihad approach. We can't measure this on the part of just simply the good will of the United States controls missiles in Iran. And I'm afraid the President has come to that conclusion--that his good will will control missiles in Iran.
The gentleman from Missouri.
Reclaiming from the gentleman from Missouri, I refer to a statement made by John Bolton, before I yield to the gentleman from Arizona. John Bolton, a former ambassador to the United Nations and a solid, very brilliant, tactical-thinking man, diplomatically tactical-thinking man.
He said that the President's decision not to deploy antiballistic missile defense is unambiguously wrong. It reflects a concession to Russian belligerence and an embarrassing abandonment of two of America's strongest allies and an appalling lack of understanding of the present and future risk posed by Iran.
``Worse, this unforced retreat of American hard power clearly signals what may well be a long American recession globally.''
That is a chilling analysis.
I yield to the gentleman from Arizona.
I appreciate the gentleman's coming to the floor and the background and the effort that he has put into this thing for all of these years and having emerged as one of a small handful of leaders on nuclear technology and the missile defense shield, as Mr. Akin has as well.
I want to reiterate a statement that you made: we put our security in their sanity. That being the Russian's sanity, not the mullahs' sanity because the mullahs have a different level of rationale if you would like to call it rational at all.
Mr. Speaker, I will include in the Record the two articles that I addressed in my statement.
[From the Washington Times, Sept. 22, 2009]
Erring on the Side of Incaution
(By John R. Bolton)
President Obama's decision not to deploy anti-ballistic
missile defense assets in Poland and the Czech Republic is
unambiguously wrong. It reflects an unrequited concession to
Russian belligerence, an embarrassing abandonment of two of
America's strongest European allies, and an appalling lack of
understanding of the present and future risks posed by Iran.
Worse, this unforced retreat of American hard power clearly
signals what may well be a long American recessional
globally.
First, Mr. Obama's capitulation was about Russia, not about
Iraq. Russia has always known that former President George W.
Bush's national missile defense project was not aimed against
Russia's offensive nuclear capabilities, neither in scope nor
in geographical deployment. To the contrary, our common
interests in defending against threats from rogue states
should have led to missile-defense cooperation, not
antagonism.
What has really agitated Russia was not that the sites were
for missile defense, but that they were an American presence
in former Warsaw Pact countries, Russia's now-defunct sphere
of influence.
Now, without anything resembling a quid pro quo from
Moscow, Washington has dramatically reduced its presence and
isolated its own friends. In Russia and Eastern Europe, the
basic political conclusion is straightforward and worrying:
Russia, a declining, depopulating power, growled, and the
United States blinked. This devastating reaction extends
worldwide, especially among our Pacific allies, who fear
similar unilateral U.S. concessions in their region.
``It is far better to err on the side of U.S. security than
on the side of greater risk of nuclear devastation. There is
no harm in deploying our missile defenses before Iran's ICBMs
can reach America, but incalculable risk if Iran is ready
before we are.''
Second, Mr. Obama's proposed new missile defense
deployments will not protect the United States against
Iranian ICBMs, for which the Eastern European sites were
primarily intended. Protecting Europe was only an ancillary,
although welcome side effect, one intended to help calm
European concern that the United States would abandon Europe
and embrace isolationism behind national missile defenses.
Western Europe, not surprisingly, seems largely content
with the Obama-projected alternative, which, if implemented,
would protect Europe, but would have few tangible benefits
for America.
Thus, despite Mr. Obama's rhetoric about replacing one
missile defense design with a more effective one, the systems
in question are aimed at two completely different objectives.
Of course, it also remains to be seen whether and exactly how
the administration will actually implement its projected
deployment, and what new risks are entailed.
For example, U.S. ships deployed in the Black Sea would be
fully exposed to Russia's naval capabilities, in contrast to
more secure bases in continental Europe. Failure to implement
the new plan aggressively will be seen as yet another failure
of American will.
Mr. Obama's public explanation omitted any acknowledgment
that the Eastern European deployments were never intended to
counter existing Iranian threats, but rather were to protect
against threats maturing in the future. Obviously, to be
ahead of the curve and ready before Iran's threat became
real, we had to begin deployment now, not in the distant
future. Instead, Mr. Obama's decision effectively forecloses
our ability to be ready when the real need arises.
Third, although purportedly based on new intelligence
assessments about Iran's capabilities, Mr. Obama's
announcement simply reflected his own longstanding biases
against national missile defense. He has never believed in it
strategically, or that it could ever be made operationally
successful.
The new intelligence ``estimate'' agreeably minimizes the
threat posed by Iranian ICBMs, thus facilitating a decision
to cancel that had been all but made during last year's
campaign. The assessment, as briefed to Congress immediately
after the president's announcement, involved no actual new
intelligence, but only a revised prediction of Iran's future
capabilities.
The new ``assessment'' also confirmed the administration's
often-expressed and so far frustrated desire to negotiate
with Iran over Tehran's nuclear weapons program. That
schedule has slipped badly, leaving Mr. Obama running out of
time for diplomatic endeavors.
Moreover, stronger economic sanctions, his fallback
position, are increasingly unlikely to be comprehensive or
strict enough to actually stop Iran's nuclear program before
completion. How convenient, therefore, to suddenly ``find''
more time on the missile front, thus facilitating a
diplomatic strategy that had been increasingly headed toward
disastrous failure. Moreover, whatever the available
intelligence, it does not determine what levels of
international risk we should accept. Mr. Obama has too high a
tolerance for such risk.
He is too willing to place America in jeopardy of Iran's
threat, a calculus exactly opposite from what we should use.
It is far better to err on the side of U.S. security than on
the side of greater risk of nuclear devastation. There is no
harm in deploying our missile defenses before Iran's ICBMs
can reach America, but incalculable risk if Iran is ready
before we are.
Mr. Obama's rationale for abandoning the Eastern European
sites ignores the important reasons they were created,
underestimates the Iranian threat, and bends the knee
unnecessarily to Russia. This all foreshadows a depressing
future. Our president, uncomfortable with projecting American
power, is following the advice of his intellectual
predecessor George McGovern: ``Come home, America.'' Both our
allies and adversaries worldwide will take due note.
[From the Wall Street Journal, Sept. 23, 2009]
Obama and the Politics of Concession--Iran and Russia Put Obama to the
Test Last Week, and He Blinked Twice
(By Mark Helprin)
During last year's campaign, Sen. Joe Biden famously
remarked that, if his ticket won, it wouldn't be long before
``the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy''
on foreign affairs. Last week, President Obama, brilliantly
wielding the powers of his office, managed to fail that test
not just once but twice, buckling in the face of Russian
pressure and taking a giant wooden nickel from Iran.
With both a collapsing economy and natural gas reserves
sufficient to produce 270 years of electricity, the surplus
of which it exports, Iran does not need nuclear electrical
generation at a cost many times that of its gas-fired plants.
It does, however, have every reason, according to its own
lights, to seek nuclear weapons--to deter American
intervention; to insure against a resurgent Iraq; to provide
some offset to nearby nuclear powers Pakistan, Russia and
Israel; to move toward hegemony in the Persian Gulf and
address the embarrassment of a more militarily capable Saudi
Arabia; to rid the Islamic world of Western domination; to
neutralize Israel's nuclear capacity while simultaneously
creating the opportunity to destroy it with one shot; and,
pertinent to last week's events, by nuclear intimidation to
turn Europe entirely against American interests in the Middle
East.
Some security analysts may comfort themselves with the
illusion that soon-to-be nuclear Iran is a rational actor,
but no country gripped so intensely by a cult of martyrdom
and death that to clear minefields it marched its own
children across them can be deemed rational. Even the United
States, twice employing nuclear weapons in World War II,
seriously contemplated doing so again in Korea and then in
Vietnam.
The West may be too pusillanimous to extirpate Iran's
nuclear potential directly, but are we so far gone as to
foreswear a passive defense? The president would have you
think not, but how is that? We will cease developing the
ability to intercept, within five years, the ICBMs that in
five years Iran is likely to possess, in favor of a sea-based
approach suitable only to Iranian missiles that cannot from
Iranian soil threaten Rome, Paris, London or Berlin. Although
it may be possible for the U.S. to modify Block II Standard
Missiles with Advanced Technology Kill Vehicles that could
disable Iranian missiles in their boost phase, this would
require the Aegis destroyers carrying them to loiter in the
confined and shallow waters of the Gulf, where antimissile
operations would be subject to Iranian interference and
attack.
Interceptors that would effectively cover Western Europe
are too big for the vertical launch cells of the Aegis ships,
or even their hulls. Thus, in light of the basing
difficulties that frustrate a boost-phase kill, to protect
Europe and the U.S. Mr. Obama proposes to deploy land-based
missiles in Europe at some future date. If he is willing to
do this, why not go ahead with the current plans? The answer
is that, even if he says so, he will not deploy land-based
missiles in Europe in place of the land-based missiles in
Europe that he has cancelled because they are land-based in
Europe.
What we have here is an inadvertent homage to Lewis
Carroll: We are going to cancel a defense that takes
five years to mount, because the threat will not
materialize for five years. And we will not deploy land-
based interceptors in Europe because our new plan is to
deploy land-based interceptors in Europe.
Added to what would be the instability and potentially
grave injury following upon the appearance of Iranian nuclear
ICBMs are two insults that may be more consequential than the
issue from which they arise. Nothing short of force will turn
Iran from the acquisition of nuclear weapons, its paramount
aim during 25 years of secrecy and stalling. Last fall,
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad set three conditions for the
U.S.: withdrawal from Iraq, a show of respect for Iran (read
``apology''), and taking the nuclear question off the table.
We are now faithfully complying, and last week, after Iran
foreclosed discussion of its nuclear program and Mojtaba
Samareh Hashemi, Mr. Ahmadinejad's chief political adviser,
predicted ``the defeat and collapse'' of Western democracy,
the U.S. agreed to enter talks the premise of which,
incredibly, is to eliminate American nuclear weapons. Even
the zombified press awoke for long enough to harry State
Department spokesman P.J. Crowley, who replied that, as Iran
was willing to talk, ``We are going to test that proposition,