Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent the order for the quorum call be rescinded. Mr. President, first I thank my good friend and colleague from Minnesota, Senator Franken, for leading this debate here today, the subject of course being…
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent the order for the quorum call be rescinded.
Mr. President, first I thank my good friend and colleague from Minnesota, Senator Franken, for leading this debate here today, the subject of course being the potential of default by the U.S. Government, a subject many of us thought we would never have to discuss. I hope people who did not get a chance to see his speech--I am sorry, I had hoped to be here but we had the final vote on the free trade agreements in the Finance Committee, but I hope people will look at the speech. It is a very erudite, thoughtful, and compelling document. It is on a subject that deserves that kind of attention, which is the danger of default. In our entire history we have never defaulted on our debt. America has always kept its promises. But some of my colleagues on the other side of the aisle are threatening to make us the first generation of Americans that does not pay its debts, that does not keep its promise. Earlier this week the President said we should reach a deal within 2 weeks in order to avoid roiling the financial markets. We Democrats are working in good faith. We are committed to making sure our Nation does not fail in meeting its obligations. My colleagues and I on this side of the aisle are working diligently to find spending cuts, many of which come from programs we strongly believe help this country, in order to come to a final agreement. We are also identifying tax loopholes to close.
But I must ask, what exactly are my Republican colleagues doing? They are stalling, they are demagoging. They walked out on bipartisan budget negotiations and are continuing to insist that we cannot raise a single dollar in revenue, no matter how wasteful the tax breaks or how generous the subsidy. The shocking truth is that our Republican colleagues seem to be willing to tank the economy simply to help out the very most privileged, who are already doing well.
Let's face it, middle-class people, poor people, depend on government programs. But if you are wealthy you do not need government spending. You don't need help to send your kid to college. You don't need to go to a clinic to have your teeth looked at in case they are falling apart and you cannot afford high-priced, fancy dentists. But if you are wealthy, how do you get breaks? You look into the Tax Code and lobby Congress, whether you are a corporation or individual, to get those breaks. That is how the high-end folks benefit, in terms of this government.
To say all those are off limits is not class warfare, it is a simple fact of life. It is a fact of life that the well-to-do, whether they be corporate or individuals, benefit from tax expenditures, whereas middle-class and poorer people benefit from spending expenditures. Yet our Republican colleagues say one whole side is off limits. That is putting politics over the economy.
In fact, these actions seem to indicate they might be deliberately tanking, or want to deliberately tank, the economy to harm the President's reelection chances. That is a tough thought. I shudder to believe it. But when you look at the evidence, it leads in that direction.
These are not actions of leaders. Forcing the United States into default to score political points is playing with fire. You risk undermining the future credit of the United States and do enough damage to the global economy that it could cause another financial crisis not unlike the one we saw in 2008 from which we still have not recovered, all to score political points, all to help those, the one segment of society which, God bless them, has done very well in the last decade.
I also want to talk today about a subject that is often ignored in debates over the debt ceiling. These debates can seem very abstract and the potential consequences very remote. That is why my colleague from Minnesota decided to lead a debate in this regard. In fact, the consequences would affect every American who wants to take out a mortgage; every parent who needs to take out student loans to send their kids to college; every American with a credit card. It would even affect the price of gasoline and the price of food. The impact of a default will not just be felt on Wall Street or in the mythical world of bond markets, but in every town, every household in the Nation.
The consequences will not be short lived. The repercussions of a default will stay with us for years or even decades. J.P. Morgan estimates that even a technical default, the failure to pay interest on our debt for a few days, would result in the cost of U.S. treasuries increasing by 50 basis points.
What does that mean to the average household? Most households do not speak in terms of basis points. Mortgage rates are often set at 150 points above U.S. Treasury. That means 1.5 percent above U.S. treasuries. If the rate on treasuries goes up 50 basis points, it goes up another half percent. So the cost of a mortgage for a family with a 30-year fixed rate mortgage
worth $172,000, just that alone, that little few days where the United States does not pay its debt, costs $19,000 to that family.
The cost of interest on a credit card would also increase. A family carrying a modest balance, $3,300, would pay an estimated $250 more in interest every year.
In total, a default or even a near default could end up costing American households $10 billion in increased borrowing costs every year.
The same J.P. Morgan study tells us that a 50-percent increase in the cost of U.S. treasuries will decrease our GDP by 1 percent. Leading economists estimate a 1-percent contraction in the GDP would result in 640,000 jobs lost. These are jobs we cannot afford to lose.
In addition, the stock market would also go down significantly, costing all Americans who are investing for their retirement or saving to send a child to college. The typical American would lose $8,000 to $12,000 in his or her retirement account.
J.P. Morgan also estimates that the value of the dollar would decline 5 percent to 10 percent as a result of a default.
There are significant consequences for the future of the dollar if this happens. We should all be asking ourselves, what happens if the dollar ceases to be the global reserve currency? But even if my colleagues across the aisle do not want to consider that, they should certainly think about the impact of a depreciated dollar on their constituents. Higher borrowing costs to the government would also increase the deficit, exactly the opposite of what we are trying to do.
So when they cavalierly say ``let's default because we have a huge deficit,'' it is actually an internal contradiction. The defaulting will make the deficit worse. According to a J.P. Morgan analysis, the deficit would increase by $10 billion a year in the short term, $75 billion in the long term.
The worst part is this: All of these costs would be self-inflicted wounds. We are fully capable of paying our debt, as we always have. But some are threatening to intentionally default. To borrow a phrase from the President's economic adviser, Austan Goolsbee, ``This would be the first default in history caused entirely by insanity.''
Let me say this. Every American family has debt, just about. Most of us have mortgages. Let's say we have a mortgage on our house, we have a house and we are living in it. If all of a sudden we say to our bank I am not going to pay my mortgage unless you do A, B, and C--you have already signed to pay that mortgage--what happens? You are not living up to an agreement you made. Your house is foreclosed upon and you lose it.
The analogy is the same here. For the U.S. Government to default on purpose would be cutting off our nose to spite our face, and hurt the citizens of this country.
I say to my Republican colleague, how do you plan to explain this to your constituents? Do you think they will believe the political games are worth the increased costs? I sincerely doubt it. I want to say to my Republican colleagues, because so many of you have trifled with the idea of not paying our debts, if, God forbid, it happens--I hope it doesn't, for the good of the country, but if it does, you will bear the blame. Not a single Democrat I am aware of has said we want to default. Many Republicans have said they want to default. So you do not have to be Albert Einstein or a Ph.D. in biophysics to know who is risking default, who is trifling with default, and who would cause default if, God forbid, we cannot come to an agreement.
Many on our side have said we are willing, if it comes to it, to raise the debt ceiling if we cannot come to an agreement because the consequences are so horrible. Not the other side--no. They are leveraging the default as a means to assert their beliefs, sincerely held. That is so wrong. But the good news is that the American people, and certainly the people who are following this issue, realize that. As we get closer and closer to the day of August 2 they will know who is willing to risk default to achieve political goals. They will know it is not the people from our side of the aisle. They will know it is the people from the other side of the aisle, and that will make problems Newt Gingrich faced in 1995--I believe it was when he shut down the government--look like child's play. I would urge my colleagues on the other side of the aisle to rethink their position. The time has come for a little soul searching on the other side of the aisle. You must decide if you are willing to create another economic crisis to mollify an extreme wing of your party and score political points against the President. You must decide if you want to go down in history as the first generation of American leaders to renege on promises already made by Presidents and Congresses, Democratic and Republican alike. In the coming weeks my Republican friends will have to make a very serious decision. Are they going to get serious about working with us to find a bipartisan solution to our debt crisis or are they going to put partisan politics above the good of the country? Are they going to say it has to be our way, all the way, 100 percent, no revenues, or we are going to force the country to default? Or will they put the good of the country and compromise above narrow, ideological, often fear-driven politics?
In conclusion, I am an optimist. I believe my colleagues will come around and join us in finding a bipartisan way forward. I don't base that on anything that has been said. I wish I could. I base it on my innate optimism that Americans, at the end of the day, are practical, problem-solving people, not people who look for self-destructive solutions. I ask my colleagues to come around, join us in a bipartisan solution. We are willing to give some. You should be willing to give some, but I can tell you, my friends, time is running out. I can only hope, the American people can only hope, you don't wait too long.
I yield the floor.