Mr. Speaker, this chart shows the amount of money that we have in circulation in dollars. And, as you can see, that up until recently there wasn't a great deal of increase in the amount of money in circulation. But, just in the last few…
Mr. Speaker, this chart shows the amount of money that we have in circulation in dollars. And, as you can see, that up until recently there wasn't a great deal of increase in the amount of money in circulation.
But, just in the last few years, last couple of years, it has shot straight up. Straight up. That means that we are seeing an inflationary trend unparalleled in American history. But that is not the end of it. People need to know that their money is going to buy a lot less if we continue down the road we are on.
Now just to let you know where some of the money is that is not on this chart, China has given us about $690 billion in loans. And, just this week, leaders in the Chinese government said that they were very concerned about the value of those loans being eroded by ``reckless policies'' in the United States of America. The U.S., ``should make the Chinese feel confident that the value of the assets at least will not be eroded in a significant way.''
And Secretary Geithner of the Treasury has been told this. And yet he said just today that there could be as much as $2 trillion printed and put into circulation, at least a large part of it, because who's going to loan us money when the Chinese, who are the biggest holders of our debt, are saying that they want guarantees that the value of the currency is not going to go down. And so who's going to buy these loans? The Social Security trust fund has an awful lot of that money, and it's already bankrupt.
But the fact of the matter is the Treasury Department of the United States, in my opinion, and I'm very sure this is going to happen, they are going to have to print more money. Billions and billions of dollars in additional money. And when they put that into circulation, the law of supply and demand is going to make it very clear that everything that we buy is going to cost a heck of a lot more.
Now, if you have $100 and 100 quarts of milk, a quart of milk would cost $1. But if you triple the money supply and you have $300 and 100 quarts of milk, it's going to cost $3 for a quart of milk. And that is the way inflation works.
This is a very clear signal that our money supply is going up like a rocket right now. And Secretary Geithner is talking about $2 trillion more in addition to what they are talking about in the supplemental. The supplemental is over $800 billion, almost another trillion dollars. The omnibus spending bill which we are going to be passing is $410 billion. And there's a $100 billion supplemental.
Now think about that. Where is all that money going to come from? You can't give people something unless you take it away, as far as taxes are concerned. So we can't tax people that much. And so what they are going to have to do is they're going to have to inflate the money supply. And they are going to do it.
The manipulation of our money supply is something that everybody in this country ought to be concerned about. They really should be concerned about it because the value of the money you have in the bank, and a lot of people have already lost a ton in the stock market, but the value of the money that you have in the bank and under the mattress, or wherever you keep your money, is going to be devalued dramatically because they are going to print so much more money. So there will be trillions of dollars more chasing the same amount or fewer goods and services.
And everybody in America ought to be saying that we have got to put a hammer on the spending and put a hammer on these big policies that we are coming up with right now. I don't think people realize, honestly.
I understand we have economic problems, but this is going to put our kids, our grandkids, and our posterity in one heck of a situation because they are either going to be taxed to the limit, or way above the limit, or they're going to have to deal with an inflationary spiral that means that the amount of money they have won't amount to anything.
In Zimbabwe right now, one piece of currency is worth about 12 million of their former currency. So they just put more zeroes on it. When people go to buy bread or food, they have to take buckets of money. That happened in
post-World War II Germany. And we are going to do it here right in the United States if we don't get control of spending. This is real, folks. This isn't baloney.
Geithner said today he may have to monetize up to $1 trillion, or get loans for $1 trillion or $2 trillion; $410 billion in the omnibus; $800-plus billion in the stimulus; $100 billion in the supplemental. I mean where is this money going to come from? Where is it going to come from?
So, I'd just like to say, Mr. Speaker, to my colleagues and the American people, This ain't baloney. This is real dollars and cents. This is the future of our kids, our grandkids, and the future of our system of government in the United States of America. We must not let this happen. We must not let this happen.
The National Debt currently stands at approximately $9.13 Trillion.
$4 Trillion of this debt is owed to Social Security and other government accounts.
$5.1 Trillion of this debt is held as ``Public Debt'' by banks, pension funds, mutual fund companies, ordinary citizens, State and local governments, and increasingly, foreign governments.
As of November 2008--the latest figures available from the Treasury Department--$3.08 Trillion of our ``Public Debt'' is held by foreign countries:
Top Six
[In billions of dollars]
Country U.S. Debt Held Mainland China....................................................681.9 Japan.............................................................577.1 United Kingdom....................................................360.0 Carib. Banking Centers............................................220.9 Oil Exporters.....................................................198.0 Brazil............................................................129.6 Carib. Banking Centers include Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles, Panama and the British Virgin Islands Oil Exporters include Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria. $1.517 Trillion of the ``Public Debt'' is outstanding as T-bonds and Notes. $427.2 Billion is outstanding as Treasury Bills. $1.944 Trillion appears to be loans held by Foreign Governments. * We are unable to determine the interest rate on our National Debt but we do know that interest payment on the debt for FY 2008 (when our outstanding debt was smaller) was $430 Billion.
The Problem
In addition to a $410 billion Omnibus, Congress is poised to enact an $800 billion Stimulus and a $100 billion Supplemental.
Added to CBO's projected deficit of $1.2 trillion, Congress's legislation will force the Bureau of Public Debt to attempt a borrowing of $2.1 trillion this year.
This is over four times the amount of new debt ever sold by the United States.
How Does the Government Actually Borrow Money?
The Federal Government currently owes about $10 trillion: $6 trillion to private lenders and $4 trillion to Government trust funds, mainly Social Security.
Most of the debt owed to private lenders is short-term debt--owed for less than a year. Last year, the U.S. Government sold over $6 trillion in debt as it refinanced short-term debt and added to this number due to the deficit.
When Congress approves the Stimulus and related spending bills, our action will force the Bureau of Debt to attempt to sell $2.1 trillion of our debt. Back in 2000, the U.S. auctioned debt 145 times. With borrowing exploding, our debt was sold 263 times last year and the number will rise dramatically after enactment of the Stimulus.
Between the short-term current debt to be refinanced and the new debt sold, the Bureau of the Debt will attempt to borrow nearly $150 billion a week from world markets.
While the number of primary purchasers used to top 40, only 17 ``primary dealers'' buy U.S. debt today.
As recently as 2003, most purchasers of U.S. debt were American. Now the buyers are mainly foreign, with China topping the list of purchasers.
Who Will Buy Federal IOUs?
We can already see warning signs of offering so much debt for sale.
After buying over $1 trillion of U.S. debt (including over $300 billion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), China's desire for buying more American IOUs is waning.
Fitch Ratings reported that China's purchases of U.S. debt will decline from over $400 billion last year to just $177 billion this year.
China announced recently that it will decrease its buying of foreign securities worldwide as it borrows for its own $586 billion stimulus program.
Other Governments Are Competing for Investors Still Willing to Buy
The debt the U.S. will sell will compete with other governments wanting loans.
The European Union, Japan, China, South Korea and 10 other governments announced 2009 borrowing plans of their own totaling another $1.2 trillion. One question we might ask--who has the money to purchase all of this U.S. and foreign government debt?
Treasury officials express confidence that there are plenty of entities willing to lend the U.S. Government money. In these uncertain times, there is a ``flight to safety'' in U.S. treasuries. Last year, we borrowed $6.7 trillion against the $17 trillion offered. With such demand, why worry?
Unfortunately, this year conditions are changing. With the U.S. offering four times the amount of new debt ever offered and Chinese willingness to loan us money disappearing, there may come a time when the interest we have to pay to sell our debt goes up. Most of our debt is held for less than one year.
Any increase in the interest we have to pay to sell our debt will effect interest rates and constrain the Federal budget. Reuters recently reported that the ``Fed faces uphill battle to hold U.S. yields down.''
The Wall Street Journal reported, that the Fed may enter the market as a direct purchaser of U.S. debt. If demand for U.S. debt was so strong, why would the Fed join the current list of 17 purchasers of U.S. debt to hold an auction? Are they worried that with so much debt to sell, they may be needed to save an auction?
What Happens if We Cannot Sell More Debt?
The worst case scenario would be an auction of Federal debt that failed to attract enough buyers.
Recently, the German government failed at an auction of its government debts.
Such an event in America would trigger another panic. Since U.S. debt auctions are reported openly within 90 seconds, a failed U.S. auction would trigger a panic on Wall Street long before Treasury officials could get the President on the phone.
How Much Will All This Debt Cost?
Beyond the short-term concerns about quickly borrowing $2.1 trillion, we should be concerned about the long-term.
There are only 111 million American individuals and families who actually pay taxes.
Their pre-Stimulus debt per taxpayer totals $54,000 each.
After adding $2.1 trillion to the $6 trillion currently owed, their debt rises in just one year to $75,000 each. Each family's debt will total more than a college education.
Interest payments for the Government are rising too. In 1980, interest on our debt cost $52 billion. Last year, the payments were eight times more--$412 billion.
To maintain faith in our dollar, these interest payments must be made before the first Social Security check or salary of a soldier can be covered.
Conclusion
In these times, it is easy to see where Stimulus dollars will be spent. But before we approve such legislation, we should answer two other questions: (1) should we borrow this money and if so, (2) can we borrow so much money in just one year? Never in the history of our nation have we borrowed so much from so few.