Sometimes we fall into the trap of thinking all wisdom is in Washington, DC. I noticed an op-ed piece in the Oklahoma Duncan Banner yesterday, written by Steve Fair, wherein he goes through all of his research on the outside, showing…
Sometimes we fall into the trap of thinking all wisdom is in Washington, DC. I noticed an op-ed piece in the Oklahoma Duncan Banner yesterday, written by Steve Fair, wherein he goes through all of his research on the outside, showing virtually all the science since 1999 or since 1998 when Michael Mann came through with his hockey stick, has demonstrated very clearly that the science is not there.
I ask unanimous consent this op-ed piece be printed in the Record.
Mr. President, I yield 10 minutes to the Senator from Idaho.
I yield one additional minute to the Senator from Idaho.
Mr. President, I suggest the absence of a quorum.
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the order for the quorum call be rescinded.
Mr. President, in regard to the three times, first of all on McCain-Lieberman, how much time is remaining?
No, McCain-Lieberman.
Mr. President, on behalf of the Senator from New Mexico, I yield whatever time he may consume to the Senator from Kansas.
First, I thank the Senator from Kansas for his excellent remarks. I think the Senator from Tennessee had a response or a couple of minutes, that he wanted to respond to something that was said; is that correct?
I yield 2 minutes to the Senator from Tennessee.
Mr. President, it is my understanding that the Senator from New Mexico, Mr. Domenici, is on his way to use his remaining time. While he is doing that, I will comment that the statements that have been made are excellent. We have agreed we will use the remainder of our time. I will use about 10 minutes, whatever time I have, and they will have the last 10 minutes. However, they are not in the Senate right now. We should serve notice we want the concluding remarks as soon as the Senator from New Mexico completes his remarks.
There are a couple of things of interest. For one thing, it is interesting when we hear about the science. I will have a chance in a minute to talk about the science and how flawed the science is. Look at the Oregon petition. Over 17,000 scientists signed a petition. I will read one paragraph from that petition:
There is no convincing scientific evidence that human
release of carbon dioxide or methane or other greenhouse
gasses is causing, or will, in the foreseeable future, cause
catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption
of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is considerable
scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon
dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural
plant and animal environments of the Earth.
It is important that we realize CO2 is not a pollutant. CO2 is, in fact, a fertilizer. CO2 is needed. CO2-enhanced earth grows crops better than it does in the absence of that.
The Senator can have more.
Yes, it is my understanding the Senator did use up all of his time.
Mr. President, I ask the Senator if he could use 1 minute.
All right.
Mr. President, it is my understanding that I have 20 minutes and that the Senator from New Mexico and the Senator from Connecticut will close the debate.
Let me, first of all, say--well, this is a good chart. I was not going to use this one, but this shows what the Senator just observed. I do not believe it is totally accurate because the only reduction that has come in CO2 from all of the member nations of the EU has come from Germany and the United Kingdom. If you look at all the rest of them, they all have exceeded the amount of their goals.
Then, more recently--this just came out 2 days ago--this is a release from the EU, greenhouse gas emissions up to 2003. It was just released. It says: Between 2002 and 2003, EU-25 emissions increased by 1.5 percent. That means that has taken up all the reductions from the previous year, 2002.
In the time I have, I am going to try to cover a lot of things. When debate is closed, they will get the last word. But I only ask the indulgence of my fellow Members to realize that there is a lot of hysteria out here. The hysteria out here is not well founded.
I am old enough to remember the hysteria back 20 years ago or so. This was on the cover of Time magazine, talking about another ice age coming. It said: However widely the weather varies from place to place and time to time, when meteorologists take an average of temperatures around the globe, they find that the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing.
So everyone was hysterical. The same people who are now talking about global warming were talking about another ice age coming.
Now, just one by one, let's, first of all, take the study that started this whole thing in 1998 that was by Michael Mann. It is very important that we look at this. This was the famous ``hockey stick.'' If you look at the blue line, that supposedly goes from the years 1000 to the 20th century. It is just a horizontal line. And then, all of a sudden, it starts shooting up; and that is the blade of the hockey stick.
Now, what he has failed to put on this chart is that if you will take the actual temperatures from 1400 to 2000--that is shown with the black line--they are relatively even.
But then, as shown by the next chart, which was in yesterday's Wall Street Journal, when you throw in the fact that we had the medieval warming period, it shows it was actually warmer in that period of time. The medieval warming period was about from 1000 A.D. to 1350 A.D.
Temperatures were warmer then than they have been in the 20th century. It just shows that theory has been refuted by many people in that it really is not accurate and should not be used.
Next, on climate models: Climate models are very difficult. People use them freely around here. Those who are listening and, hopefully, those who might be looking at the logic of this will not buy this idea.
The National Academy of Sciences said:
Climate models are imperfect.
Peter Stone, the climate modeler from MIT, said:
The major [climate prediction] uncertainties have not been
reduced at all.
The uncertainties are large.
The George C. Marshall Institute:
The inputs needed to project climate for the next 100
years, as is typically attempted, are unknowable.
Further, a professer from MIT: The way current models handle factors such as clouds and water vapor is disturbingly arbitrary. In many instances the underlying physics is simply not known.
I think we have to understand if all of this is predicated on climate charts, climate charts are not perfect.
The Oregon petition--I covered this many times. People say: Inhofe is going to come up with some scientists who might refute this. For someone to say that the science is settled, for someone to say there is a consensus in terms of the science, when you look at the Oregon petition, which had 17,800 scientists, they stated, as is on the chart behind me:
There is no convincing scientific evidence that human
release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse
gasses is causing, or will cause in the foreseeable future,
catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption
of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial
scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon
dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural
planet and animal environments of the Earth.
Recognizing, as we said before, that CO2 is not a pollutant; CO2 is a fertilizer.
I would, lastly, quote James Schlesinger, who was the Energy Secretary under President Carter. He said: There is an idea among the public that the science is settled. That remains far from the truth.
So it is not a matter of Republicans or Democrats. These are the experts saying that the science is not there. Now, we could go--and I will come back to this subject with the time we have--but I would like to start off with the assertion that Kilimanjaro--I happen to have flown over Kilimanjaro twice in the last week. I looked down and saw that there is a change that has taken place.
If you look at this picture from 1976, there was very little ice on there. In 1983 there was a lot more. In 1997, there was considerably less. But the Center for Science and Public Policy summarized the Kaiser study and said: The ice fields on Mount Kilimanjaro started melting in response to a climate shift that occurred near the end of the 19th century, well before any alteration in the Earth's greenhouse effect. That reduced the amount of moisture in the air in the vicinity of the mountain. Manmade global warming has nothing to do with it. I repeat, nothing to do with it. Yet we hear it over and over again. And I am sure we will hear it in the closing remarks.
In terms of glaciers and icecaps and research that has been done-- this was in the Journal of Climate--research done by Holloway and Sou in 2002 revealed that claims of thinning arctic ice came from submarine measurements of only one part of the Arctic Ocean. Additionally, decadal changes and scaled wind patterns rearranged the ice, giving some regions thinner and others thicker amounts of ice.
Well, it is easy to find one area where the ice is thinner than it was, but, on the other hand, it is actually thicker.
It goes on to say in the Journal of Glaciology: For the mass balance of glacier measures, the gain and loss of ice, there are only 200 glaciers of the total 160,000 glaciers for which mass balance data exists over a single year.
So the data is not there on that argument.
They talk about hurricanes, the fact that hurricanes are coming, and somehow this has something to do with global warming.
Well, if you look at this chart, it talks about the hurricanes dating back to 1900, and each decade since then up to 2000. You can see, yes, it did peak out around 1940. And then it has been going down ever since, and considerably lower than that peak was.
According to Dr. Christopher Landsea, who is considered to be the foremost expert on hurricanes, he says: Hurricanes are going to continue to hit the United States in the Atlantic and gulf coast areas. And the damage will probably be more expansive than in the past. But this is due to natural climate cycles which cause hurricanes to be stronger and more frequent and the rising property prices of the coast, not because any effect CO2 emissions have on weather patterns.
He says: Contrary to the beliefs of environmentalists, reducing CO2 emissions will not lessen the impact of hurricanes.
So, in fact, it is just not true. You hear it over and over again, but it is just not true. You hear about the sea rising: The sea is rising. Things are disappearing. In fact, the famous island, Tuvalu Island, was supposedly going to be falling into the ocean and be covered up. According to John Daly--he is
considered to be an expert--well, let's use the 2004 Global Planetary Change: There is a total absence of any recent acceleration in sea level rises as often claimed by IPCC and related groups.
It is not rising, folks. It is just not happening. The other says: The historic record from 1978 to 1999 indicates a sea level rise of 0.07 millimeters per year, where the IPCC claim of 1 to 2.5 millimeters a year sea level rise as a whole indicated the IPCC claims it based on faulty modeling.
The National Title Facility, based in Adelaide, Australia, has dismissed the Tuvalu claims as unfounded. In other words, the sea level is not rising. You can say it is rising and stand down here and yell and scream about it, but it is not. The science shows clearly it is not rising. The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment report has been referred to several times. If you look at the temperatures between 1934 and the currently--this chart goes to 2003--you see they were considerably warmer back during 1934.
Let's now go to the economic impacts. This is probably one of the things that really should be considered more than anything else at this point because people think if there isn't going to be any great economic impact, why shouldn't we go ahead and do it. I am using here not S. 139, the bill we discussed in October of 2003, because this one is a little bit less than that. It is a little more modest. Enacting the McCain-Lieberman bill would cost, according to Charles River Associates, the U.S. economy $507 billion in 2020, $545 billion in 2025. Implementing Kyoto would cost the U.S. economy $305 billion in 2010, $243 billion in 2020. Under Kyoto, for the average family of four in America, it would cost them $2,700 a year. This bill will only cost them $2,000 a year. So maybe that isn't quite as bad as it would have been otherwise.
The bottom line: It is very expensive. And that is not just Senator Inhofe talking. We are quoting CRA, which is the recognized authority, like the Horton Econometric Survey that talked about how it will affect the rising cost of energy, electricity, gasoline, how much it costs a family of four. It would be very detrimental to our country.
In terms of jobs, enacting the McCain-Lieberman amendment would mean a loss of 800,040 jobs in 2010 and 1.306 million jobs in 2020. This is down a little bit from the full-blown Kyoto, but 1.3 million jobs is significant.
In terms of energy prices, McCain-Lieberman would increase energy prices in 2020 by 28 percent for gasoline, 20 percent for electricity, 47 percent for natural gas, and much more for coal.
Just a few minutes ago, the Senator from Arizona talked about the National Academy of Sciences. What he was referring to is a press statement. It was not a report. Their last report states as follows:
There is considerable uncertainty in current understanding
of how the climate system varies naturally and reacts to
emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. A casual linkage
between the buildup of greenhouse gases and the observed
climate change in the 20th century cannot be unequivocally
established. The IPC Summary for Policymakers could give an
impression that the science of global warming is settled,
even though many uncertainties still remain.
So much for the National Academy of Sciences.
I think there are two charts that are very significant. First of all, let's just assume for a minute that everything they say about the necessity for carbon caps, everything they say about signing on to the Kyoto treaty, that all of that is true. If all that is true, this chart is probably the most significant chart we have. This chart shows that if it is true, if you look at the black line, that is what would happen with Kyoto. Without Kyoto, look at the blue line. It is so little difference that it is not measurable. In other words, by the year 2050, the change would be something like 0.06 degrees centigrade, which is a change in surface temperature too small to even be detected in global averaging.
This is back when the Bingaman amendment would have been here, so you can ignore that since apparently that is not coming up.
If nothing is done right now, if you project a temperature rise, it would be 1.71 degrees Fahrenheit, if there is no action taken at all. If you go McCain-Lieberman, it would be 1.61 Fahrenheit. Between those two, it is not even a noticeable difference.
I am hoping we will have an opportunity for people to see the truth and people to see what the real science is, see the real economic impact.
There are a couple things that are incontrovertible. First, we know the economic impact is great. They might argue a little bit that we have taken the economic impact in terms of the Horton Econometric Survey, according to CRA, and they are astronomic. I mentioned what they would be under the McCain-Lieberman bill. But if you say that there is certainly questionable science behind it, and yet there is a huge economic impact, then what would be the motivation?
Why is Europe so excited and so anxious for us to join their dilemma, in spite of the fact that they have increased their CO2 emissions since the time they signed on to the treaty? The answer is found in two individuals. One is Margot Wallstrom. Margot Wallstrom is the European Union Environmental Commissioner. I don't think they knew that these were being reported at the time. Now it is documented that these statements were made. Kyoto really isn't about climate change. Kyoto is about ``the economy, about leveling the playing field for big businesses worldwide.'' That is Margot Wallstrom, EU Environmental Commissioner.
Some Senators favor Frenchmen. Jacques Chirac said Kyoto represents ``the first component of an authentic global governance.'' Certainly there is a motivation overseas for us to be involved in this thing.
I would like to also mention that there is a lot of polling data. But the most recent polling data was 3 days ago. It was an ABC poll. In that, most people do believe that global warming is underway. They have been convinced of that because we have a very liberal media that wants people to believe that. We have people who want to think the world is falling apart.
However, in asking the question, Do you favor Government action, 38 percent said yes; 58 percent of the people said no. It seems to me that in spite of all the misinformation that is floating around, the truth is getting out.
Let me wind up by reminding everyone that we do have pollution problems. They are not with global warming. They are not with CO2, methane gases, anthropogenic gases, but with SOx, NOx, and mercury. President Bush has caused us to introduce the greatest reduction in SOx, NOx, and mercury in the history of this country, more so than any of the preceding Presidents. It is a 70-percent mandated reduction, a reduction that would really do something about pollution. I believe we should be talking about really reducing pollution, not about trying to create science, to somehow fabricate science to make people believe that, No. 1, temperatures are rising; and, No. 2, it is due to manmade gases. The science does not support that.
I thank the Chair.
Reserving the right to object, do we have a time agreement on your resolution?
How about 20 minutes, equally divided, and I yield back my time.
Reserving the right to object.
I ask you restate the unanimous consent at this time. It is my understanding we would have time equally divided, between now and 5:30, at which time there would be a vote. I state my intention would be to move to table the Bingaman resolution.
Reserving the right to object.
I already indicated that.
Mr. President, how much time remains on both sides?
Mr. President, first of all, I know what a sense-of-the- Senate resolution is. Everybody here knows if you establish a position on a bill that is very meaningful, such as the bill
that was defeated--the McCain-Lieberman bill--you can turn around and vote for a sense of the Senate and play both sides. Essentially, I think that is what happened here.
Very clearly, a sense of the Senate doesn't do anything except offer cover. I would like to suggest that it would be difficult for me to imagine that anyone who voted in opposition to McCain-Lieberman a few minutes ago would turn around and support this because this is making four assertions that are not true. We have demonstrated very clearly that they are not true and nonscientifically based.
The first one is on the first page of the sense-of-the-Senate resolution. It says:
Greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere are causing
average temperatures to rise at a rate outside the range of
natural variability. . . .
We talked about this for 3 hours today. In fact, that is not true. If you are concerned about, for example, surface temperatures, we have climate research, published in 2004, that says overall averages of warming rates is overstated. This is due to significant contamination with land-based weather stations, which add up to a net warming bias at the global averaging level.
Then, on climate research of 2004, this study refutes common claims that nonclimatic signals in the weather station data have been identified and filtered out by the IPCC. That is the International Panel on Climate Control, which we talked about in the beginning of this. Again, we look at this, in terms of satellite data, as printed in the text of the central station publication in 2004:
Substantial cooling has occurred in the lower stratospheric
layer of the atmosphere over the past 25 years.
In other words, in the stratosphere, starting between 8 and 25 miles above the surface, it is not heating, it is actually reducing; the temperatures are reducing. This false conclusion that the stratosphere is warming should never have been published since the evidence was misinterpreted.
So we are saying something in this resolution that, quite frankly, is not true.
Second, it is ``posing a substantial risk of rising sea levels, altered patterns of atmospheric and oceanic circulation,'' hurricanes, and all that.
We have talked about this at some length today. First, if you talk about droughts, we have already talked about the surface temperatures and the fact that they are not increasing. The hurricanes in global warming, we spent time today talking about that. The foremost authority nationwide is a guy named Dr. Christopher Landsea. He says that hurricanes are going to continue to hit the United States on the Atlantic and Gulf coast, and the damage will probably be more expensive than in the past, but this is due to the natural climate cycles which cause hurricanes to be stronger and more frequent and rising property prices.
Obviously, it is going to cost more if you damage property that is increasing in value. He says that contrary to the belief of the environmentalists, reducing CO2 emissions would not lessen the impact of hurricanes. The best way to reduce the toll hurricanes would take on coastal communities is through adaptation and preparation. I think we all understand that. Rising sea levels. We talked about this today, too. They always talk about this Tuvalu, the island supposedly that is going to sink into the ocean. John Daly, in the report that came out--I don't think anybody questions his credibility--says the historical record, from 1978 through 1999, indicated a sea level rise of 0.07 millimeters per year, where IPCC claims a 1 to 2.5 millimeter sea rise for the world as a whole, indicating the IPCC claim is based on faulty modeling. The national title facility based in Adelaide, Australia, dismissed the Tuvalu claims as unfounded. It goes on and on refuting that.
The next thing it says in this resolution is that the science is settled. I don't know how many times we have to say that, since 1999, the science that was assumed to be true, based on the 1998 revelation of Michael Mann on the very famous ``hockey stick'' theory, has been refuted over and over again. We have the energy and environment report that came out in 2003 that says the original Mann papers contain collation errors, unjustifiable truncations of extrapolation of source data, obsolete data, geographical location errors, incorrect calculations of the principal components, and other quality control defects. It goes on to say that while studying Mann's calculation methods, McIntyre and McKitrick found that Mann's component calculation used only one series in a certain part of the calculation said to be serious. They discovered that this unusual method nearly always produces a hockey stick shape, regardless of what information is put into it.
We had the charts out less than an hour ago. It is very clear that if you plot the temperature, as he did over the period of the last hundred years, it shows a fairly level line, until it comes to the 20th century, and it goes up. That is the blade on the hockey stick. That shows that temperatures start increasing after the turn of the century. What he failed to put on the chart was the medieval warming period, which was from about 1000 A.D. to 1350 A.D. During that time, nobody refutes the fact that temperatures were higher then than they are in this century.
The other thing, if all else fails, use logic. In the 1940s, when we had the dramatic escalation of CO2 and methane and anthropogenic gases, this is what they are asserting causes global warming, but it precipitated a cooling period that started in the middle 1940s and went to the late 1970s. As we said an hour ago, the first page on the major publications around America, such as Time magazine, said we are now having an ice age coming. Everybody was hysterical. We are all going to die in an ice age. That is using the same logic that, if you are going to say it is due to anthropogenic gas, in the late 1940s, we had an 85-percent increase in that, and that precipitated not a warming period but a cooling period.
So you can take this and pick it apart. I kind of think it is going to pass because we had a lot of people who voted against the real thing which would have caused all of the economic damages. Now it is very safe to cover your vote by voting for something so you can answer your mail and say: Yes, that is all right. I voted for the sense of the Senate, saying we are going to do these things and accept the fact that, No. 1, the planet is heating; No. 2, it is due to anthropogenic gases, and therefore vote for me.
That is happening now. We understand that. It was also brought out by the Senator from New Mexico that the economic impacts are not all that great when dealing with global warming. I suggest to you they are very great. I cannot find a group that says they are not. Charles Rivers Associates. Sure, you can say the CRA is not a credible group. Nobody is going to say that because he is credible. They are saying if we had enacted the watered-down version of McCain-Lieberman, it would have cost the economy $507 billion in 2020, $525 billion in 2025. Implementing Kyoto would cost--and we are talking about this in the resolution--$305 billion in 2010; $243 billion in 2020. It would result in an annual loss per household of $2,780 by 2010. That means, for every household of four people, the average it is going to cost them. Don't let anyone tell you that the economic impact is anything but disastrous. When the CRA International studied the job loss, it stated that under the watered-down version, we would lose 840,000 U.S. jobs in 2010; 1.3 million jobs in 2020; and implementing the Kyoto would mean job loss in the economy of 2.4 million jobs in 2010 and 1.7 million jobs in 2020. Energy prices--this is the economy we are talking about-- would increase. There would be a 28-percent increase for gasoline, a 28-percent increase for electricity, 47-percent increase for gas, and it would be astronomical in terms of the cost of coal. These are the things that we turned around and wisely voted down in a meaningful bill. And I don't question the sincerity of McCain-Lieberman. They really believe in this. Nonetheless, cooler heads did prevail, and now we have a cover vote and people will come forth and say I am voting for this in spite of the fact that I voted against you before. I will turn around and vote for this as a sense of the Senate. It means nothing in terms of legislation. We understand that.
Mr. President, I reserve the remainder of my time.
Mr. President, how much time is remaining?
I yield 3 minutes to the Senator from Missouri.
How much time remains?
Mr. President, this has been a good debate. I would like to have the same debate of 3 hours, 4 hours as we talked on the McCain- Lieberman amendment on this amendment because it should be essentially the same thing. As I said before, it is not.
One point I neglected to mention, since they talk in the findings about what is happening in the Arctic, one of the reports we used specifically said that the temperature in the Arctic during the late thirties and early forties was greater than it is today.
In this brief time, I only repeat what the National Academy of Sciences stated in their written report--not in any kind of press release but their written report:
. . . there is considerable uncertainty in current
understanding of how the climate system varies naturally and
reacts to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. . . .
. . . a casual linkage between the buildup of greenhouse
gases and the observed climate changes in the 20th century
cannot be unequivocally established.
The IPCC Summary for Policymakers could give an impression
that the science of global warming is settled, even though
many uncertainties still remain.
That is the National Academy of Sciences.
Lastly, we are refuting not just if we adopt this resolution, which I think we will adopt because it is an easy vote for a lot of people and nobody is going to pay a lot of attention to a sense of the Senate, the fact is, we had 17,800 scientists in the Oregon petition who said:
There is no convincing scientific evidence that human
release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse
gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause
catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption
of the Earth's climate. Moreover, there is substantial
scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon
dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural
plant and animal environment of the Earth.
If we adopt this amendment, we are saying that science that has been refuted is a reality.
Mr. President, I move to table the amendment and ask for the yeas and nays.