Mr. Chairman, I yield myself such time as I may consume. Mr. Chairman, much has been said here today with regard to the subject of our budget and fiscal policy and its effect on economic growth. I would like to show as clearly as I can as…
Mr. Chairman, I yield myself such time as I may consume.
Mr. Chairman, much has been said here today with regard to the subject of our budget and fiscal policy and its effect on economic growth.
I would like to show as clearly as I can as the vice chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, which of course is made up of Members of the House and Members of the Senate, the actual effect of budgetary policy over the last few years, monetary policy as carried out by the Fed, and tax policy implemented at the request of the administration and carried out by this House and the Senate.
Actually we have found that there are some very positive effects that have accumulated over the past several years in terms of a variety of good economic trends.
For example, lower inflation that has resulted from various policies actually has improved economic growth through the appearance of lower interest rates directly as a result of lower inflation which can be primarily attributed to the policy of the Federal Reserve. It reduces unnecessary uncertainty and volatility in financial markets, it causes the price system to work better, it acts like a tax cut to have lower interest rates, especially for those portions of the Tax Code that are not indexed for inflation. The Fed's policy of inflation targeting has worked.
I can remember many years ago when the Fed's policies of today were not in place, when we felt good when inflation was at 6 percent or at 5 percent. Today, inflation is at historic lows, probably today under 2 percent. As a result of that, these lower interest rates have worked, as I said before, as tax cuts to help rally economic growth.
Lower marginal tax rates as well as lower interest rates remain in place today, and we are reaping the long-run effects of lower tax rates despite two increases, one in 1990 and one in 1993. Marginal tax rates remain lower today than they were in the 1950s or the 1960s or the 1970s. This is very important.
It is also important not to revise the tax rates that are already in place. We have seen the results of these as demonstrated on this chart, for example. Here, in 2001, when the tax rates were put into place, we see that real economic growth, of course, was bad during the three quarters of 2001, but then the economy started to grow. Real gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2001 began to grow, and we had seven straight quarters of economic growth, culminating, as the chairman of the Committee on the Budget said, in the last two quarters that we have just experienced where we saw 8.2 percent economic growth in one quarter and 4.1 percent in the next quarter.
There has been good reason for optimism and, of course, the stock market has rebounded during this period of time, but there have been other factors that have been holding the economy back.
National security and homeland security are two general areas that are essential for securing our peace and security and stable, sustained economic growth. This economic growth is not possible without both security from foreign adversaries and security from adversaries who threaten the homeland. And so spending on our national security and on homeland security is absolutely essential. Investment spending will not occur without stable property rights or security for investment and investors as well as lenders.
While national security and domestic security are essential, they also depend on what weapons the adversaries employ. In a sense, they depend on the adversary and not entirely on some absolute standard of security.
Investment, on the other hand, is essential to fostering economic growth. Increases in investment improve both supply and demand so it fosters growth without causing inflation. Investment is needed to improve productivity, raise real wages and increase living standards. Productivity-enhancing investment increases economic growth without inflation.
Let me just turn to the next chart we have here which shows fixed private nonresidential investment. Again, beginning in the third and fourth quarter of the year 2000, which coincidentally was before President Bush took office, we see that fixed private nonresidential investments fell sharply. And then as the recession ensued in 2001 and through the first two quarters of 2002, fixed private nonresidential investment was actually in the negative.
But then as the effect of the tax cuts kicked in and as the effects of low interest rates brought about by the control of inflation kicked in, we see that fixed private nonresidential investment begins to improve. This was a very positive thing for the economy.
The U.S. economy currently is expanding at a healthy clip. A wide spectrum of sectors of the economy are contributing to this advance. Consumption, housing, investment, and production among others have all made notable contributions. Fourth-quarter real GDP was up by a brisk 4.1 percent and, as I said before, the third quarter of last year was up 8.2 percent, which certainly again is demonstrated here on the chart that we have.
For the future, the consensus view of economists is that the economy will continue to expand at a robust pace over the next several quarters. Specifically, the consensus is for better than 4 percent growth in the near term. This current and prospective performance of the U.S. economy is superior to most other world economies, including both Europe and Japan.
Business investment, as well, has been a leading sector fueling these healthy economic gains. Real business investment has been up sharply in the last three quarters. A key reason for this strength was the progrowth tax policies adopted by this Congress and by the administration.
Further, gains in profits, the stock market as well as capital goods orders all point to additional advances in investment. Although the stock market has had its ups and downs, particularly as measured by the Dow Industrials,
the stock market has regained much of the ground it lost in recent years. The stock market gains not only encourage investment activity, but because of widespread ownership in stocks, mutual funds, IRAs and other savings vehicles, we have fostered household wealth gains as well. The latest figures indicate that about 50 percent of American households own stock shares in some form, and stock market capitalization was up significantly last year. The tax cuts and expectations of continued economic advance have propelled stock prices to continue to rise until just a couple of weeks ago.
Manufacturing activity, as well, as measured by the Institute for Supply Management, ISM, the ISM index, is also making significant gains. The index shows that manufacturing gains have been quite widespread. Manufacturing production as measured by the Federal Reserve's Industrial Product Index is up sharply as well. We have another chart here which shows that the ISM index fell during the recession, and it shows how we have grown today to the point where 61.4 percent of our businesses are actually expanding.
Employment is one area, however, that has lagged behind output growth. It is quite clear that manufacturing employment softness began in July of 2000. The impacts of investment and stock market weakness were concentrated in manufacturing. Nonetheless, recent payroll employment is up 364,000 jobs since August and payrolls have advanced the last 6 months in a row. During a comparable time period, household employment was up 604,000 jobs.
Let me turn to the unemployment rate which we hear so much about in regard to our economy. The unemployment rate has fallen from a high this year of 6.3 percent to 5.6 percent in recent months. The 5.6 percent rate is lower than the average rate in the 1970s, lower than the average rate in the 1980s, and lower than the average rate in the robust 1990s. It has not been characterized as such, however.
Further, the recent peak in the unemployment rate is considerably lower than the peaks of earlier business cycles. Let me show my colleagues what I mean. In the 1970s during a recession, the unemployment rate peaked at around 9 percent. In the 1980s during a deeper recession, the unemployment rate peaked at just under 11 percent. In the 1990s during a recession, the last quarter of 1990 and the first quarter of 1991, we had an 8-month recession, and the unemployment rate peaked at just under 8 percent. In this recession, the unemployment rate peaked at 6.3 percent and is now at 5.6 percent, as I said, lower than the average rates of unemployment in the 1970s, the 1980s or the 1990s.
Inflation has also remained low during this period. As can be seen on this chart, core CPI inflation has continued to trend down for the past several years. This is good news for all income earners and all consumers. This is the result of the Fed's persistent anti-inflation policy. Currently there are few, if any, signs of inflationary expectations re-emerging in any significant way. This line speaks for itself. Inflation is historically low today as a result of Fed policy.
Likewise, the Misery Index, we all remember the Misery Index that we got so accustomed to hearing about in the 1970s, the Misery Index measures the sum of the unemployment rate and the core CPI inflation rate. It is premised on the notion that both a higher rate of unemployment and a worsening of inflation create economic costs for a country. The index is used unofficially to assess a nation's economic health.
Currently the Misery Index is relatively low, lower than it has been for most of the past 35 years. Once again, the red line here speaks for itself, the Misery Index is very low today.
Long-term interest rates have continued to trend down as well and remain at near 40-year lows. What is particularly relevant is that long-term rates remain low or even declined in the face of increases in the budget deficit. These low long-term rates are more importantly determined by the rate of inflation than by budget deficits. Again, we have a chart here that has a line on it that shows the 10-year Treasury bond yield at consistent maturity, and once again we see that we have historically low interest rates.
In sum, the economy is currently advancing at a healthy pace. Most key sectors of the economy have contributed to this healthy growth. The consensus of economic forecasters project continued healthy economic growth for the foreseeable future. The policies that have supported this growth, namely, tax relief and accommodative monetary policy as carried out by the Fed, appear to have been quite appropriate. Accordingly, so long as inflation remains subdued, a continuation of these policies and making certain that tax cuts are permanent seems quite appropriate.
Mr. Chairman, I reserve the balance of my time.
Mr. Chairman, I yield myself such time as I may consume.
Mr. Chairman, I am not surprised, but I am somewhat troubled that the previous speaker did not recognize that the economic downturn was well under way well before President Bush took office. The administration's critics blame President Bush for his policies for the loss of about 2 million jobs since January of 2001. However, all of this employment decline is accounted for by falling manufacturing employment, and manufacturing employment started declining well before President Bush or his policies were in place. Manufacturing employment has been falling since March of 1998. From this point through January of 2001, over half a million manufacturing jobs had already been lost. It is hard to blame that on President Bush. Thus the trend was well under way before the President ever took office. And it was the policies that were in place during the 1990s that caused that decline.
Manufacturing employment has been falling steadily, well before President Bush took office. The respected Institute for Supply Management employment index plunged in 2000. By January of 2001 most firms surveyed indicated that manufacturing jobs were falling or stagnating, according to these indices. That was the year President Bush took office. So according to your theories, President Bush's policies that had not even gone into effect yet caused all that unemployment. It is just not true. It cannot be true. President Bush was not here.
After the bursting of the stock market in the first quarter of 2000, there was a sharp fall-off in investment. Because much of this investment is comprised of machinery and equipment produced in the manufacturing sector, manufacturing employment began declining every month since July of 2000.
We know President Bush was not the President before July of 2000 when the policies of the previous administration caused these declines.
In the last month of the previous administration, manufacturing employment declined by 82,000 jobs. That was President Clinton, not President Bush. However, with a strong rebound in investment in the last half of 2003, manufacturing output is growing today at a healthy pace, and monthly manufacturing employment declines have been slowed dramatically because since President Bush took office, he has made it a priority to institute policies that provide for economic growth.
Since last August, payroll employment has gained 364,000 jobs, not declined. We all want to see more job growth, but strong productivity gains have made this harder. Strong productivity growth is good for the majority of the workers who have jobs because it enhances their job security and earnings potential. However, in the short run, it does slow job growth. We had a technological advance during the 1980s and 1990s that was good. It made our workers more productive. The use of computer technology, the use of communications technology, and many other increases in technology across the board made our workforce the most productive workforce in the history of our country. But it had a negative side as well because when the recession hit and the decline started, while President Clinton was President, when the decline started and people lost their jobs, the inclusion of more technology continued to go forward. And when the economy began to grow and people went back to seek their jobs, they had been replaced by technology, adding to the productive nature of our workforce.
The upward productivity trend started in the second half of the 1990s and has been under way for at least 8 years. By the second half of the 1990s, investments in new technology and equipment changed the economy and its relationship to employment. The cumulative effect of these investments was that the economy could grow quite quickly without greatly increased employment. Productivity growth, not outsourcing, is the primary cause of slow employment growth in the short run. With healthy economic growth now under way, most economists expect employment growth to continue in the future.
Mr. Chairman, I reserve the balance of my time.
Mr. Chairman, I yield myself the balance of my time.
Mr. Chairman, the facts bear out that the economy is growing. Like the previous speaker, I wish that jobs were growing faster, and I believe they will. But the previous speaker's examples were not exactly examples that I would have used.
For example, to compare this recession to the Great Depression I find, I guess I would say amusing to a certain extent, because while we know that the unemployment rate today is at 5.6 percent and topped out at 6.3 percent in this recession, the unemployment rate during the Great Depression was 25 percent. So I think that is a rather poor example, and I think goes to show the extent and the lengths to which the minority will try to bend things to make their story look like the one that they would like the American people to believe.
A lot has been said about tax rates. One of the charges that has been made about our tax policy and our tax cut, and the last speaker repeated it again for the last of many times today, is that when we reduced taxes for the American people, when we did away with the marriage tax penalty, when we created the child tax credit, when we passed the other tax cuts that provided for economic growth, we created the deficit.
Well, I would like to show one final chart which demonstrates that that is not true either. This chart to my left shows, and the Congressional Budget Office, which works on a bipartisan basis, came up with these numbers, it shows that the projected surplus in 2001 was $281 billion, and shows in the first year that the tax cuts went into effect the static cost. ``Static'' is a word we use around here to mean as exactly as we can the amount of money that will not flow into the Treasury if you assume no economic growth at the same time because of the tax cuts.
We assume that there is a static loss of revenue to the Federal Government, and it is shown here in blue. This is what the tax cut cost. Out of the $281 billion surplus that was projected to exist, only $70.2 billion went for tax cuts, and we actually would have had a surplus of $210 billion, after the tax cuts. The actual surplus turned out to be $127 billion because, as I pointed out before, during the last year of Bill Clinton's administration, the economy began to decline. So less growth in the economy, less people working, less people paying taxes, less revenue.
And then, if I move on to the next year, the projected CBO surplus was $313 billion, and the actual cost of the tax cuts that year, $73.7 billion; and for the first time in 4 years, we went into a deficit situation of $158 billion. We had a $158 billion deficit. So if we go from a $313 billion projected surplus to a $158 billion deficit, it is a swing of $471 billion, from surplus to deficit. The cost of tax cuts: $73.7 billion.
I will not bore everybody with the third year, but the same trend continues: the cost of the tax cut, $172 billion out of a $359 billion projected surplus, and we ended up with a deficit of $375 billion, a big swing from a $359 billion surplus to a $375 billion deficit.
The fourth year is the most dramatic. We went from a projected surplus of $397 billion to a deficit of $477 billion, a swing of $874 billion, and the actual cost of the tax cuts: $264.8 billion, which would have left us with a surplus of $132 billion if it were the fault of the tax cuts. Other factors mitigated to have that tremendous swing. The war was taking place, the economy fell, and other factors played into it, such as the loss in the stock market.
So as is evident from this chart and the CBO numbers, and the numbers from the Joint Tax Committee, all of which are bipartisan, the tax cut did not cause the deficits at all, unlike what our minority opponents would like America to believe.
One of the most important accomplishments of our budget policy, and this budget reflects this, in this year, in the past few years, is the enactment of this tax package for families all along the income spectrum. The budget before us today continues and preserves the key elements of this tax relief, allowing families to keep more of their hard-earned money.
Over the 4-year period, from 2002 to 2004, just three key tax reductions out of the dozens enacted have produced savings for American taxpayers. These three provisions are a new 10 percent tax bracket. Previously, low-income people paid 15 percent in the bottom tax bracket. Pursuant to these tax cuts, that 15 percent dropped to 10 percent. We enacted a child tax credit worth $1,000 in 2003 and $1,000 in 2004; and we enacted a marriage penalty relief through an increased standard deduction for couples filing joint returns. For married couples with two children and who use the standard deduction, the savings from these tax reductions total approximately $5,500 over these 4 years, according to the Joint Economic Committee report that was published recently.
If one is interested in that report, click on our Web page. It is there for everyone to see.
Consider these figures for 2004 from the JEC report. First, the child tax credit, now $1,000 per child, double what it was back in 2000. For a two-child household, the increases translate to $1,000 in tax savings. Second, thanks to the 2001 and 2003 tax relief cuts, there is now a new 10 percent tax bracket, which applies to the first $14,300 of income this year for joint tax returns. Without this new bracket, that income would otherwise be taxed at 15 percent. These are for the lowest wage-earners. This tax cut is for the lowest wage-earners. In 2004, this 10 percent tax bracket will save taxpayers $715.
Third, married couples have finally received some tax relief on the marriage tax penalty. A quirk in the law required married couples to pay more taxes than the same individuals paid if they were single. Tax legislation enacted in 2001 now provides new tax relief such as a standard deduction for married couples that is double the standard deduction for single couples. Families taking advantage of this increased standard deduction will save $233 this year. Total tax savings from these three provisions alone amount to $1,948 in 2004. Over the 4-year period, 2001 to 2004, combined savings total $5,480 for low-income and middle-income American families.
Mr. Chairman, these tax cuts are not for the rich. These tax reductions benefit everyone who pays income taxes. In fact, the threshold to receive all the dollar savings described here is just $36,400 for a married couple with two children claiming a standard deduction.
Mr. Chairman, this budget, while all of us would have written it differently, is a budget that deserves to pass; and the tax cuts and the economic growth provisions provided by this budget are important for the future of America's families and for America's economy.
Mr. Chairman, I yield back the balance of my time.