I thank my colleague for his leadership on this issue, for organizing our discussion here today, and for his leadership on so many other important issues here in the Congress, and I like the way he introduced this next segment of our…
I thank my colleague for his leadership on this issue, for organizing our discussion here today, and for his leadership on so many other important issues here in the Congress, and I like the way he introduced this next segment of our discussions around economic policy because I will spend a little bit of time on that.
Mr. Speaker, I am going to start by talking about probabilities and severities--because I think it is important to think about that when we are thinking about climate change--and then move into some market-based solutions that I think work very well with some of the EPA's recent guidance, which I am very supportive of.
Let's start with the view of what experts think of this issue. It is estimated that 97 percent of the serious climate scientists in the world believe that climate change is occurring and that human behavior is contributing to this.
A friend of mine had a very good analogy for this when he said: If you took your child to 100 physicians and 97 of those physicians said that your child had a condition that needed to be treated, would you wait to get the last three? Or would you act on the advice of 97 percent of the physicians?
That is effectively what we have with respect to the advice that serious climate scientists have with respect to the two questions as to whether is climate change happening and is human behavior contributing to it.
Secondly, there is a body of work around what are the consequences if climate change were to continue, and it is similarly overwhelming in terms of the view that, if it were to occur, the costs, both moral-- right, in terms of the stewardship of our planet, but we will put that aside for a second--and financial, are very significant.
If you look at the United States, if you look at costs associated with weather--extreme weather along our coasts, extreme weather in the Midwest, droughts in the west, fires that are being caused from that, disruption in people's lives, costs to the Federal Government, these are very, very significant costs.
That is not even counting the geopolitical costs associated with continued climate change. A very large percentage of the poor people in the world live at or below sea level. The effect that rising tides will have in disrupting their lives, we should understand will have a very significant geopolitical implication.
So let's think about the probabilities and severities. There is some chance--I view it very small, but some chance--that 97 percent of climate scientists are wrong, that, in fact, nothing is happening. I view that as a 10 percent probability.
So whatever we do, the changes in our behavior have to be measured against the 10 percent of the probability. There is an overwhelming likelihood that the scientists are right. That is why 97 percent of them agree.
The fact that they are in accord on this issue would make me think, from a probability-weighted basis, that there is an 80 percent probability that they are right.
Then there is probably a 10 percent probability that they are wrong the
other way, that they are seriously underestimating the effects of climate change, and it could accelerate, and the consequences are actually much greater than we had believed.
So if you add up all of those probabilities and multiply them by the severities, you come to a view that this could be one of the central generational challenges of this era, in terms of addressing this issue from a both moral and economic perspective.
I think my colleague from Maryland framed it well when he talked about the economic opportunities because I think we have been presented with a false choice. The choice has been act on this issue, act against the advice of 97 percent of the climate scientists, or, you know, ruin our economy if we do that; and that is the choice we have been presented with.
That is fundamentally not the right choice because, if you have a view that the evidence will continue to mount, you have to assume that, ultimately, humans--both in the United States and around the world-- will react to this issue. That is the logical assumption.
If that logical assumption turns out to be true, then we should assume that, in 25 to 50 years, the way this world--and this country in particular--but the way this world produces energy, distributes energy, utilizes energy, and conserves energy will be very, very different than it is today.
As a businessperson, I look at that, and I say big, big opportunity. It is a big opportunity to be the leader in energy production, energy distribution, energy conservation, and energy utilization.
So there is a concept in business known as the first mover advantage. The person who reacts first gets the best technology, gets the best experts, gets the best insights, and that is what I believe, as a matter of economics, this Nation should be doing.
As someone who believes the power of markets is very significant to change behavior--in fact, I believe there are only two things that really change human behavior: one is their faith, and the other is financial incentives.
We have an opportunity, I believe, as it relates to climate change to not only get the faith community behind this issue--which I believe they will, the faith community cares deeply about the stewardship of the planet, God's greatest gift to us. I believe in the future, we will see the faith community--and it is already there, to a very significant extent--getting behind this more.
I also think there are things that we can do in terms of creating the right financial incentives to change the behavior. I believe things like a carbon tax, where you create a market-based solution and you tax something that we fundamentally shouldn't like--carbon--in exchange for taxing things we should like--like human beings and profits--is a better scenario for our country going forward, which is why, in combination with the new EPA regulations, we are introducing something called the State's Choice Act.
What the State's Choice Act does is require the Federal Government to give every State in this country another option. It is not a requirement. It is an option, and if the State decides to put in place a carbon tax, where they tax something we shouldn't like today--and I am sure we definitely will not like in the future, which is carbon emissions--and they can take the revenues from that carbon tax and deploy them against any priority they have, including lowering other taxes in their State, if a State puts in place a carbon tax, then they are deemed in compliance with the EPA regulations.
So it is providing States with an option--not a requirement, an option--to put in place a mechanism--a market-based mechanism in lieu of a regulatory framework.
Environmentalists believe a carbon tax is the best solution because they understand that financial incentives change behavior most significantly. Business broadly believes this is the right solution because it is a market-based approach.
In fact, the largest energy company in the world, ExxonMobil Corporation, disclosed something last year that I viewed as very consequential, that they will begin, in their financial assumptions--so in other words, when ExxonMobil projects the future and their business against those projections, they are assuming that, at some point, there will be a social cost of carbon imposed through some form of taxing system.
What that means, Mr. Speaker, is that ExxonMobil is, today, making business decisions based on the fact that that will happen. Most major corporations, most of the Fortune 500 is doing the same thing. They see where this is going.
I believe that, when government and the private sector work well together, we get the best outcomes. So when you see policymakers and people who care about climate change saying their carbon tax approach is the right answer and when you see the overwhelming majority of the Fortune 500 believing a carbon tax is the right answer, I think we should be embracing market-based solutions, which is what we are trying to do with this State's Choice Act.
We applaud the actions of the EPA. This is a serious problem for the reasons I discussed earlier, and I think their actions, particularly in the absence of other actions coming out of Congress, are the right answer.
We believe this is a great opportunity to also start the conversation around market-based solutions, which is why we would like to give every State in this country the option to pursue a market-based solution in exchange for a regulatory solution.
This is an incredibly important topic. Again, I want to thank my colleague for organizing us here today and giving me the opportunity to comment on my views on this.