American Housing Rescue And Foreclosure Prevention Act Of 2008
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the order for the quorum call be rescinded. Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that I be allowed to speak as in morning business for up to 15 minutes. Mr. President, over the course of the…
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the order for the quorum call be rescinded.
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that I be allowed to speak as in morning business for up to 15 minutes.
Mr. President, over the course of the last several days I have refrained from speaking on the floor about energy. But I have watched the floor very closely as I have seen kind of an interesting duel going on. An advocate of drilling, I found it fascinating that some on the other side of the aisle were saying that if we opened our outer continental reserves and drilled them, it would simply make no difference to the current state of play in the oil market or the price of gas at the pump. I find it not only interesting that that kind of conclusion is being drawn, but I also find it phenomenally naive that kind of statement can be made.
It is my opinion, and I think the opinion of a good many, that we are in a classic supply-and-demand situation in the Nation and therefore the world's oil markets. There is alleged speculation. There is alleged manipulation. I don't know whether any of that is true, but I do know the facts of what we live with and have lived with for the last several years.
There have been many of us in Congress who said there would be a day of reckoning if we continued to consume oil at a greater rate than we were producing and refining and bringing it to the marketplace. I believe it is very possible that day of reckoning is at hand. The world market in which we acquire our oil, the world market in which gas is refined from oil, is just that--a world market. It is not a domestic market. It doesn't happen down the street, only to be supplied on that street. It happens in the Middle East, it happens in Latin America, it happens in Canada, and it happens in this country. It all comes together in a world market, and we compete at the local gas pump for the price of the world market.
Here is a perfect example of the reality in which we live as America's consumers. I do not deny--in fact, I sympathize with and I am frustrated for America's consumers who today are facing $4 and $4.45 and $4.50 gas. It is taking a huge bite out of their back pocket, and they are not ready for it. They have not been eased into it. They should not have had to even be worried about easing into it because it should not have happened. But the Congress of the United States for the last 20 years has been in a perfect and absolute state of denial.
Energy was inexpensive compared to the rest of the world, and we could put this known reserve off, we could put this off, we could worry about that tomorrow because we didn't have to worry about it today. We could be environmental purists because it was easy to do.
Here is what was happening in America. The supply through the 1970s and 1980s and 1990s was dramatically dropping, but the demand was continuing to go up at an unprecedented rate. In fact, after the oil shock of the 1970s, when we adjusted some CAFE standards and we did a few other things, our
economy took off. As our economy took off, by definition we became ever increasingly larger consumers of oil, of hydrocarbons. It is that which lubricates the economy of our Nation. If we are going to be 25 percent of the world economy, guess what, we consume 25 percent of the world's energy. But we were not producing 25 percent of the world's energy. We, by this time, had begun to develop a huge dependency on other places in the world, all while we were having this phenomenal luxury of saying you don't have to drill in ANWR or Alaska, it may have 15 or 20 billion barrels, but we don't know, we can't touch it. We don't have to drill off the coast, we don't have to worry about oil shale. We don't have to worry about anything. We can be green and talk about the environment and deny the reality of the marketplace and grow increasingly more dependent on somebody else.
Here is an interesting chart. It is a chart I found in a book I am reading now that I recommend all Senators read. It is called ``A Thousand Barrels A Second.'' Think of that. That is the title of the book, but it is a title of reality. The reality is that the world in which we consume energy and from which we buy energy today consumes 1,000 barrels of oil a second. Do the math: 86.5 million barrels of oil a day. That is what the world marketplace is, and we consume 20-plus percent of it.
Here is what was happening from the 1970s on when we were in an oil shock. We looked at ourselves, we adjusted ourselves a little bit, and we began to try to figure other ways.
Oil production from 1970 to the year 2005, as demonstrated by the dark blue--as you notice, it was going up progressively. But something else was happening that allowed for adjustments in the market. This green area was the extra capacity the market was not consuming. So when there were bumps in the market, there was extra capacity. It didn't happen to be in the United States. It predominantly was in the Middle East and with the OPEC nations, but it was extra capacity.
Here we are in 2005. What had happened? China had come into the economy. India had come into the economy. They were beginning to consume at rates we did not expect. While they were consuming and buying out of the world's markets, the world's capacity was continuing to drop as it relates to consumption.
This is not necessarily a lecture in economics, but it is a lecture in supply and demand. For any Senator to deny the reality of the marketplace is either naive or politically incorrect. The marketplace is working in a way that none of us likes today, and our constituents are feeling it in their back pockets, and they are picking up the phone and calling their Senator and saying: Do something about it.
We are trying to figure out a way to politically dance that line. There is very little we can do about it tomorrow. There is a lot we can do about it in 2 to 5 years if we let the world begin to produce again. But we have not made that choice yet.
The President is talking about it. Other people are talking about it at this moment. They are talking about going into the known reserves. But here is also a reality of what has happened. See this declining line right here? Any time you drill into an oilfield, any time you begin to lift crude oil out of that field, you begin to deplete the field. An average oilfield in the world depletes at 5 percent to 7 percent a year. That is the historic natural level that the industry will tell you--you get a depletion rate. If you are depleting at 5 percent to 7 percent a year and the world demand growth is going up at about 1.5 percent, you have a problem if you are not producing more oil to the marketplace. That is where we are today as a world consumer of oil. We are not producing the increased volume necessary to fit the growth of the marketplace. It is really quite simple. We as country are producing increasingly less.
We have 80 billion barrels of reserve out there, we think. At least we know we have 25 or 30 billion barrels of known reserve in ANWR and the Outer Continental Shelf. If we do the new geology, maybe we have 80, maybe we have 120. We don't know it, but we believe it is there. What is the value of drilling it; it is going to take 3 to 5 years? You bet it is going to take 3 to 5 years or more. The problem is today. Yes, we should have thought about it 3 to 5 years ago, but we were all running to look green, running to talk about the environment, wanting to do things we didn't want to do, but we did it because it was good politics. And we were denying the marketplace.
Here is the reality we got ourselves in. We don't control the marketplace anymore. Other nations of the world do control the marketplace. The Saudis control it, and on down the line. Eighty percent of the world's supply of oil out there is controlled by other nations, not companies--not ExxonMobil, not Chevron, not Marathon; they control way less than 10 percent of the total reserves. The rest of the world is now telling America where to go; that is, you go to the market and you buy off the market and we are not going to give you any margin. At the same time, we are denying ourselves production in the marketplace.
Here is what happened. It is a reality that all of us have to face. Oh, we said no California, Oregon, and Washington; we said no down the east coast because it was politically the right thing to do; we said no up around Florida; we said no up here in ANWR in Alaska; and we believe there may be as many as 80 billion barrels of oil. What does 80 billion barrels mean if you can develop it? It means maybe a couple of million barrels a day into the U.S. market and into the world market.
What does that mean? I believe--and I think the market believes--the true value of oil today based on today's consumption levels is maybe $85 or $90 a barrel. But that extra margin on top, that $40 of margin sitting on top that produces $130 or $140 of oil today, is speculation. It is speculation based on a futures market that says in the future, because America is not producing and the world is not producing to that decline chart, because we are not adding that extra 5 or 6 percent a year, out here in 2010 and 2015 that is going to be the real price. We have to secure that for our consumer. So we are going to bet on the future.
Mr. President, 2 billion barrels into the U.S. market, now or 5 years from now, what does it do to the price of oil today? Some futures speculators, some people who buy in the futures market say that if this country commits itself to drilling, if this country commits itself to development in the 2-year to 5-year period, the market will begin to adjust and come down. Why? Because of the belief that we are going to find it out there, we are going to add it to the pool, and we are going to develop that margin of protection, again, that the market historically had against an ever-growing market.
Is this the answer for 30 years from now? Of course, it is not. I have said and others are saying that it is a bridge to the future. It is the reality of where we are today because electric cars are not prevalent in the market. It is a reality of where we are today because hydrogen fuel cells are not in the market. But they are coming. It is a reality of where we are today because we are not producing enough ethanol, both corn-based and cellulosic. There is a huge new wave of technology coming, but it is 3 years out, it is 10 years out, it is 15 years out. What do we do in between? Do we simply turn to our consumers and say: Buck up; pay for the oil. Pay for the gas. Pay $5. There is nothing we can do about it.
Don't let your politician tell you that, because there is something we can do about it. We can bring on our known reserves. We can open them up to the market. We can let the bidding process go forward, and we can tell the world market that America is going to be producing again, in a timeframe of 3 to 5 years. As a result of that, the speculation will begin to move out of the market because there will be a sense of reality returning to what has been there through the 1970s and the 1980s and the 1990s, and that is additional supply to offset the depletion in the oilfield itself and the demand for about a 1- percent or 1.5-percent growth in the market as these new technologies begin to take hold.
Last year, Senator Dorgan and I passed a provision that we called the DOES Act which said, let's get the scientists out there, use the new geology and find out where the oil is.
Oh, no, we cannot do that. We might find it. And if we find it, we might want to drill it. And if we want to drill it, that is not green, that is not environmentally sound. Even if, as we
know, today's technologies allow us that kind of environmental protection, it was not politically popular to do.
We passed it out of the Senate. Thank you, Senators, for helping us. It was lost in a conference with the House. You see, even a year ago, Congress was in a state of denial, of denial of the reality of the marketplace, of a reality of depletion, of where we were and where we are going to go. So our consumers today are paying more than they have ever paid for energy. They are not happy, and they have every reason to be angry at a Congress that for 10 years at least, or 20, has been in a state of denial, not recognizing the reality of a market that would come home to rest on the price of oil. But it has. And it is today.
I am thinking if there are questions today whether we ought to drill in our known reserves and use all of our environmental tools to be sound, and some are still holding back at $4.50, what do you do at $5 a gallon? What do you do when the consumers' frustration turns from anger to fear? Because, you see, fear is a whole new emotion. What if they begin to fear they can no longer afford the home they have, or their food budgets, or the structure and security of their family? What happens when they still have to have energy to move to work, and it is going to cost them more than they have ever dreamed of paying in their lives? I think fear will turn politics in the direction of a marketplace, in the reality of what we can do, whether it is 2 years out or 5 years out.
So to the American consumer who is angry today, and may become fearful tomorrow, e-mail your Congressman, e-mail your Senator, call them. Tell them: Let's get this country back into production. Do it in an environmentally sound way, do it clean, do it right, but do it. Put your money into new technologies. Invest for the future, because oil is not going to be there, and the oil that will be there 10 years from now is going to be a lot more costly, because we have pumped all of the easy, we have reached all of the low-hanging fruit, and that which comes tomorrow will be more expensive because it is deeper, or it is in a sensitive area where we have to be more careful than we have been in the past.
Because we are always going to need some oil, we hope only for transportation, we can do it with electric cars, we can do it with plug-ins, we can do it with all the right kinds of things that begin to turn us away from an oil market.
For those who said Congress has not done anything in that area, we have done some things. We passed the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and the Energy Policy Act of 2007. There was not production of oil in it. Many of us tried to get it in, but we were denied because it was not ``politically green correct.'' But then again, gas was $2, and now it is $4, or it is $4.50; it may soon be $5, because the world has awakened to the reality of supply and demand and need. They are going to wrestle for it, and they will wrestle in the marketplace. Those who can pay the highest price are going to get the fuel.
But to the average consumers, middle-class Americans, that will become a great frustration, as it should. They need to make sure they have a Congress that is willing to face the reality of the moment, and say, let us produce. Let us get this country back into production. Let us look at our offshores. Let us look at ANWR. Let us look at where we know the oil is, while we work to find out if there is anymore somewhere else. Let's encourage production here at home, so that not only can we enter the market with more oil, but we can be more secure, because this is a question of security, whether it is security in the home, or whether it is security as a nation.
Politically, this Congress for the last two decades has been doing the wrong thing when it came to petroleum and energy security. We grew increasingly dependent on foreign nations, and as we did, we not only put our Nation at risk, we have now put the energy-consuming American family at risk. We should not be a part of that. We are here to facilitate the possible so the marketplace can do what it can and does very well. Right now the marketplace is squeezing and squeezing hard and competing for the last remaining oil until more oil comes in production.
Here is the last thought of a simple equation. If demand is going up 1.5 percent a year worldwide, and depletion in the existing producing fields is going down at 7 to 8 percent a year, and you are not finding and bringing anymore on line, then the price goes up as the supply goes down. But if you find a little more to add, about 5 percent more annualized, you offset the difference and price stabilizes. That is the way the market works. We do not have control of that as politicians; we can only control access to future supply. That is what we ought to be about as a Senate and as a country.
So e-mail your Senator, write your Congressman, tell them to get going. Let's get this great country of ours back into the business of production so the supply and demand in the marketplace stabilizes and the American consumer can begin to become comfortable with where we are headed in energy policy and their pocketbook.