Mr. President, I very much thank my friend and colleague, Senator Grassley, chairman of our committee. He has done an excellent job working on this bill. As he said, I do not support the bill but I do support the process and the will of…
Mr. President, I very much thank my friend and colleague, Senator Grassley, chairman of our committee. He has done an excellent job working on this bill. As he said, I do not support the bill but I do support the process and the will of the Senate to proceed; let Senators vote as they wish. That is, frankly, why we are standing here--to get things done, although we may not always agree.
I now yield to the Senator from Illinois 15 minutes from the time on our side.
Mr. Chairman, I yield 5 more minutes to the Senator from Illinois.
I yield 5 minutes off the amendment to the Senator from Illinois.
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the pending amendment be temporarily laid aside and that the amendment to be offered by the Senator from North Dakota be in order.
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that the following staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation be granted the privilege of the floor, and I send the list to the desk. We worked out an arrangement so they rotate.
I thank the Senator.
The amendment the Senator from North Dakota is offering, that I cosponsor, is a tax cut amendment. Most Members of this body like to cut taxes. That is what this amendment is all about. It is cutting taxes.
Second, which group is getting the benefit of the tax cut under this amendment? Under the amendment offered by the Senator from North Dakota, cosponsored by myself, it is senior citizens who get the benefit of the tax cut.
I join the Senator in offering this amendment. It repeals the 1993 tax of Social Security benefits, the tax this body imposed on certain senior citizens in 1993.
We are currently debating a $350 billion tax cut reconciliation bill. This bill is about priorities, about values. That is what budgets are about. Part of the budget is $350 billion in tax cuts. The budget we are working under that was adopted by the Congress set those numbers. I am pleased there was a commitment to limit that reconciliation bill through conference to $350 billion. That was the commitment made by certain key Senators on this side.
It is within this tax reconciliation bill we debate and decide how the changes in revenues and outlays affect our constituents. The debate is about who the $350 billion benefits: do we give more money to some taxpayers or others? The choices are real. We are here to make decisions. We are here to decide.
We need to make sure our Nation's seniors receive a significant benefit. If this bill before the Senate will allocate benefits to certain groups, certainly senior citizens in our country should be a main beneficiary of a tax reduction. This amendment offered by the Senator from North Dakota is just that, a tax reduction for senior citizens. It repeals the 1993 provision which imposed taxes on certain senior citizens.
The bill reported by the Finance Committee provides a tax break for taxpayers with dividend income. That proposal costs $81 billion over 10 years out of the $350 billion. That proposal provides a few seniors, not very many, a few with a small amount of tax relief; 77 percent of seniors in our country will receive no relief, no tax reductions, under the Finance Committee bill on dividends; 77 percent of Americans do not receive any of the $81 billion that will go to very few Americans, the most wealthy, the least in our country.
In contrast, our amendment will provide 8 million seniors with a significant tax cut. All the cost of this goes back to America's seniors. That means $150 billion over 10 years is put back into the pockets of our senior citizens.
The current law enacted in 1993 has two significant flaws. First, in 1993 we changed the rules in the middle of the game for people receiving Social Security benefits. I will never forget. Suddenly that was enacted. It came out of the blue, an additional tax on our senior citizens and their benefits. We began to tax Social Security benefits at a higher rate for individuals at certain income levels.
The second flaw in 1993, we failed to adjust the income levels for inflation. For the past 10 years, there has been no adjustment. This means more and more seniors will be subjected to this tax as each year passes. We need to correct those flaws.
Again, this debate is about choices. We make choices here. Life is making choices. We think the choice here is clear. If we have $150 billion to spend, spend it on seniors. As such, we offset the cost of our amendment to repeal the tax to Social Security benefits. That is the purpose of the underlying amendment by striking the dividend proposal in the bill and also striking reductions in the top rates.
Again, this is a tax cut amendment. Those seniors I mention are currently paying that tax. We are proposing that tax be repealed. That is a tax cut amendment. It is being paid for by a promise to the future. Those provisions of the Finance Committee dealing with dividends are not currently in effect. They are future promises, we suggest, to be repealed so our seniors get the benefit of the repeal of the taxes imposed upon them in 1993.
A couple of numbers: Repealing the 1993 tax of Social Security benefits gets an average of $1,500 into the hands of 8 million seniors. Contrast that with the dividend proposal in the Finance Committee bill. The dividend proposal in the bill gets an average of $19,000 to fewer than 5,000 seniors. Again, what is better: $1,500 in the hands of 8 million seniors or $19,000 in the hands of the most wealthy, only 5,000 seniors? And fewer than 1 million taxpayers, regardless of whether they are 65 or 25, would benefit from the top rate reductions. Remember, there are 130 million filers in America. Fewer than 1 million taxpayers who are not seniors, who are between 65 and 25 get reductions from the top rate reductions.
Members on the other side of the aisle have supported this in the past. Repealing the 1993 Social Security tax is a better choice for our constituents than enacting dividend proposals in the top rate reductions contained in the underlying bill.
Mr. President, how much time is remaining on both sides?
Mr. President, there isn't anybody in this body for whom I have higher respect and more affection than the Senator from Iowa. I must say when I listened to his arguments against this amendment, virtually nothing was said that addressed the merits. In fact, there were some statements which were a little bit misleading. Lawyers like to call them red herrings. That is when you say something to try to get people off track so they don't think about the subject at hand. It is called a red herring.
One of the red herrings we heard was that Democrats voted against this amendment in the past, and it was Democrats who voted for this increase in Social Security taxes back in 1993. That was 10 years ago. That is a different time, a different situation, different circumstance. Back then the Congress voted to reduce deficits, and that was part of a large deficit reduction package. This is 10 years later, 2003. We are faced with the question, within a $350 billion tax bill, how should the tax cuts be allocated. That is the question before us.
Many of us believe it is a far wiser policy that seniors receive more of the tax benefit as a result of the cuts than is the case under the Senate Finance Committee bill. That is why we think the 1993 provision should be repealed
because then seniors will receive significant benefits if it is repealed, and we believe that is a higher priority than giving a lot more dollars to very few Americans who are the elite, the extremely wealthy Americans.
Repealing the 1993 tax on Social Security benefits gets an average of $1,500 in the hands of 8 million Americans. Eight million seniors will receive, on average, a benefit of $1,500 under our amendment. Otherwise, if this amendment does not pass, then by contrast, under the committee bill, which gives dividends to all Americans tax free, a few seniors, 5,000 seniors, will get $19,000.
We are saying there should be a better priority; that is, the money should be given to people who are going to spend it. It should be spread out more evenly rather than have the benefits, as in the Finance Committee bill, so heavily skewed to the Nation's elite. This should not be an elite bill. This should be an American bill. This should be a bill for Americans, and American seniors should be included as the rest of America.
There are other provisions of the bill that give tax benefits other than to seniors. We believe seniors should get a significant part of the benefit. I strongly urge passage of the amendment.
The Senator from Iowa also said there is a difference in philosophy: One party wants to put money in the pockets of people; the other does not.
That, too, is not a valid argument. We are talking about whose pockets this money should be put into, if you want to put it in those terms. We on our side are suggesting that the people whose pockets should receive the money are the seniors, that they should receive the benefits, much more than is the case in this bill. In this bill, the people who receive the money, whose pockets get the money, are the elite, the wealthy elite of America generally. That is not right. That doesn't work. It is not fair. It is not American. We believe this should be a bill that is more evenly balanced for all Americans.
For all those reasons, I urge my colleagues to support the amendment. It is good for America.
Madam President, I yield myself 5 minutes off the bill. For the record, I want to make a correction. I know it was an oversight by the Senator from Iowa when he mentioned that the Medicare trust fund will be somewhat in jeopardy in future years.
That is true, but I know it was an oversight when he failed to state that, under the terms of our amendment, the trust fund will be made whole through transfers from the general fund over to the Medicare trust fund, so it will be made whole or kept whole and held harmless under this amendment.
I know that was an oversight, but I wanted to say that for the record.
Madam President, I ask unanimous consent that the pending amendments be temporarily laid aside so the Senator from Nevada may offer an amendment.
Madam President, I yield whatever time the Senator from Louisiana would desire to have.
Yes.
Madam President, it is my understanding the Senator from Pennsylvania wishes to offer an amendment. I ask unanimous consent that the pending amendments be set aside so the Senator from Pennsylvania may offer his amendment.
Madam President, besides being willing to accept the amendment offered by the Senator from Pennsylvania, I add that there are some portions of this bill which further make the Tax Code more complex. We often do that as we are trying to, on the one hand, balance the budget or fit within certain budget restrictions and, on the other hand, help a certain tax policy which, in effect, adds a lot more complexity to the code. Regrettably, the code is going to be much more complex after this legislation is passed, and it will be passed, than is the code today.
We did, however, include one measure of tax simplification at my behest. It is small, but it is important, I think. There are many definitions in the code. There is a definition of a child for the purpose of the child tax credit or the earned-income tax credit or as an exemption as a dependent or for purposes of a head-of-household exemption. It depends on how many children the household has in terms of what additional credits or exemptions that head of household has. There are five definitions in the code, each different for each of the conditions I mentioned. We simplified that situation.
We said, whether it is earned-income tax credit, the child credit, a dependent for the purpose of exemption or head-of-household exemption, the definition of child is the same. That will make the code a bit easier for taxpayers and practitioners.
I appreciate the amendment offered by the Senator from Pennsylvania. It is helpful always to look for ways to simplify the code. I am not terribly encouraged we are going to get the code simplified very much in the next several years. It would be great if we could. We should make those efforts. If history is any guide, regrettably the President and the Congress together are making the code more complex every year.
Some day the straw will break the camel's back. The code, in my judgment, is going to collapse. It is going to get so complex and finally people are going to get fed up and make significant changes. We are not there. I do not think that will occur for several years.
The amendment offered by the Senator from Pennsylvania is a step in the direction toward forcing us in the Congress to grapple with the undue complexity of the code, whether the flat tax, consumption tax, value-added tax--who knows what is the right approach; that is to be decided another day--or just stay with our current code and make a lot of simplifications. For example, phasing out so-called Peps and Peases. That is the section of the code that says we will give you a tax break on the one hand but take them away on the other. We will give a tax break, but it phases out in a few years. There are lots of provisions in the code like that. One major simplification would be to get rid of those provisions.
I compliment the Senator for advancing the ball and thinking more about simplification. I thank him for offering the amendment.
Madam President, I ask unanimous consent that the order for the quorum call be rescinded.
Madam President, I ask unanimous consent that the pending amendments be temporarily set aside so I might offer an amendment.
Madam President, I send an amendment to the desk and ask for its immediate consideration.
Madam President, I ask unanimous consent that the reading of the amendment be dispensed with.
Madam President, this amendment is designed to take effect earlier rather than later and provide substantially more benefits than the tax bill that is presently before us. It is designed to help stimulate the economy with more wallop, more punch, earlier rather than later.
How does it do that? Two ways. First, it would speed up the dividend tax relief. It would make it take effect earlier rather than later. Second, it would simplify the mechanism that will be sending checks out to people who qualify for the child tax credit. So, there are two ways that this amendment will help provide more income relief, more quickly, to more Americans, than what
is contained in the bill. It is an improvement upon the bill.
First, with respect to speeding up the dividend relief, the dividend proposal in this bill is not effective until the year 2004. Many provisions of this bill take effect in 2003, but the dividend provisions of the bill do not take effect in 2003; rather, a year later, in 2004. I suspect it is to save revenue. There will be no dollars injected into the economy, as a consequence of the dividend proposal, in the year 2003. It will be later, in 2004, and even then it is going to take some time for Americans to change their tax returns to take advantage of this change.
As I stated earlier, we are here today because the economy demands that we act quickly to help our anemic economy. Let's see what we can do to help create more jobs. To rebuild the economy. To rebuild America.
In my State of Montana, we desperately need jobs. Many of our high school and college graduates are leaving Montana. Why? Because they cannot find a job in the State. They go elsewhere. There is a better chance of finding a job in one of the larger cities. But, even that is difficult. Lack of jobs is a national problem, it is not just a problem in Montana. I think over 2 million jobs have been lost in the last couple of years because of an anemic economy. We want to get moving quickly. We want to get moving earlier than we otherwise would. We should seek policies to help the economy grow as soon as possible.
I disagree with the current dividend proposal for several reasons. One, it creates a three-tiered regime. It makes the Tax Code even more complex. It creates a three-tiered regime for investment income. Interest income would be fully taxed, as it is today. Capital gains would be taxed at about half the rate of ordinary income, as it is today. But we now add a third complexity of taxation of investment income, and that is dividend income which would fall to the new regime; that is, the first $500 of dividend income would be excluded from one's income tax, and then, beginning in later years, in 2004, the next 10 percent of dividend income would be excluded, and then in the year 2008, 20 percent of dividend income would be excluded. A new layer, a new complexity, certainly with respect to investment income.
My point is, if we are going to include a dividend proposal in this bill, why not make it take effect earlier? Our economy needs the boost right now, not when taxpayers file their returns in 2005. The dividend provision takes effect in 2004 but, frankly, it does not really take effect until 2005 when people file their tax returns. The dividend proposal has no stimulative effect in the year 2003. Most people do not even get the benefit in 2004. Most individual taxpayers will have to wait until they file their tax returns in 2005 to reap the benefit of a dividend exclusion in the bill.
My amendment will advance the effective date of the dividend provision in the bill to January 1, 2003--this year. This means taxpayers will get relief for dividends they receive this year.
I have my doubts whether the dividend tax relief has much stimulative effect generally, but some will praise the economic virtues of dividend tax relief. I ask, if there are virtues, why wait? Make the proposal effective for 2003 at least to provide the possibility that the economy will see some benefit.
The second provision in my amendment will get more dollars to families by simplifying the distribution of the increased child credit that we passed this year. The President has proposed accelerating the full $1,000 child credit to 2003. It is currently $600. The President has proposed accelerating that, the full $1,000 to take effect this year, 2003. Instead of making taxpayers wait until next spring when they file their tax returns to get the credit, the President has proposed sending the checks out this summer for the $400 increase in the credit. That is the same provision which is included in the Finance Committee bill. I support the acceleration of this credit for working families. It is the right thing to do. I think sending this increase out to taxpayers right away also makes good economic sense. Why wait? This gets money into the people's hands immediately so they can spend it. This will spur consumption and boost the economy, which is exactly what we should be doing in this bill.
My concern, however, deals with the millions of families who will not receive the full $400 check due to refundability limits. I might remind our colleagues that a couple of years ago, when we sent out the so- called $300 check for individuals and the $600 check for married couples, a lot of people did not get the $300; married couples did not get the $600. Why? Because of the tax brackets the taxpayer happened to fall into when they did the calculation to find out what portion of the $300 an individual might receive. If the taxpayer had a lower income, the taxpayer might not receive the full $300. It was a mess. Some got the full $300, some did not. It was a mess.
Under current law, the credit is partially funded. Families can take part of the credit if they pay payroll taxes but do not have income tax liability. Not the whole credit, but part of it. The amount that a low- income family can get refunded is to increase in 2005. The President's proposal did not accelerate the refundability of the credit. Fortunately, during consideration of the bill, the Finance Committee adopted an amendment offered by Senator Lincoln. Her amendment was to accelerate the refundability of the credit. This will allow many low- income families to see some benefit from the increased tax credit. However, even with the inclusion of the refundability amendment, many low-income families will not be eligible to receive the full $400. Millions of working families who have incomes between $10,000 and $20,000 will not get the full $400 check. They will receive a partial check. Again, people are not getting what they are promised.
We are increasing the child tax credit from $600 to $1,000 to take effect in 2003 and telling people they get an additional $400 in 2003 and many will not get it. We tell them that is the law, but they will not get it because their incomes are in certain brackets. Those whose incomes are between $10,000 and $20,000 will get less than the full $400 and receive only partial checks, and they will not know how much unless the IRS tells them how much the following year.
That does not make sense. The families who are most likely to spend the check, those who spend most of their income, will not get the full amount.
My amendment guarantees each and every working family eligible for the child credit would get the full $400 check. This fulfills two of the goals of the stimulus package, getting more money out of the door immediately and getting it to the people who will spend it, lower income people. These two changes to the bill will inject an additional $15 billion into the economy in 2003 and 2004, more than provided for in this bill. That makes sense. The additional dollars in the next 2 years will help create more jobs, help boost demand, and help rebuild the economy.
To pay for the modifications, my amendment merely eliminates the increase of the dividend exclusion from 10 percent to 20 percent in the year 2008. To repeat, in the bill, the 10 percent exclusion is increased to a 20-percent exclusion, and does not take effect until 2008. I say that is too far off. Let's repeal the increase that is scheduled to take effect in 2008 and take that $15 billion and dedicate it to the working families. That will take effect in the early years, 2003 and 2004. We could make the dividend proposal, therefore, effective now, not later.
The current provisions in the bill provide that the dividend exclusion does not take effect until 2004, not 2003. This amendment leaves in place the 10-percent exclusion that is still in place but takes effect a year earlier; that is, 10 percent above the $500 goes in. We are simply saying that the exclusion in 2008 will still be 10 percent. That is so far off. Why schedule an increase that does not take effect until 5 years from now?
I urge my colleagues to support this amendment. Briefly, it moves money upfront. It does not change the total amount of the bill but moves it upfront a little more so there is more stimulative effect in the short run. Thus, the bill does what it is purported to do, which is to create more jobs.
I yield the floor.
I see Senator Dodd ready to speak. I suggest that he speak, and I will speak after him.
Mr. President, I ask all Senators to heed the words of the Senator from Connecticut. I think he is accurate. I think he is on target.
The amendment before us, of which I am a cosponsor, is very simple. The answer of whether it should be adopted is also very easy.
Getting to the point, the question is, Should we extend unemployment benefits to those millions of Americans who do not have jobs and whose unemployment insurance is about to expire?
The provisions in Federal law that give unemployment insurance benefits will expire in a few weeks. The number of unemployed people is rising. These are people who have lost their jobs not because of their fault but because they have been laid off, because the economy is anemic. They lost jobs because their employers are laying them off.
The question is, Should the Congress extend unemployment benefits? Should they extend unemployment benefits to these hard-working men and women who are not making a lot of money? They are basic wage earners. Should we extend unemployment benefits? To ask the question is to answer it: Of course, we should.
I hear from the other side that maybe they will not look for jobs because they are getting additional benefits. They are not getting more dollars in benefits, they are just getting more weeks during which they can receive about $200 a week while they are looking for a job. The obvious answer to that charge is these are not good times. Two-hundred dollars a week is not a lot of money. I daresay no Member of this body can live on $200 a week. We are so used to living on more than $200 a week. I see the Presiding Officer smiling, knowing there is probably a little truth in that. I am suggesting we should do the obvious and extend unemployment benefits.
Another argument I hear against this proposal is that it is not a stimulus to extend the period during which people get unemployment benefits. Of course it is a stimulus. Those people are going to spend that $200-a-week check. Of course, they are going to spend it. Economists will tell us that for every $1 of unemployment benefits, there is a multiplier effect of $2.15 to the economy; that is, for every $1, an additional $2.15 is spent in the economy. It is pretty simple.
I also think it is pretty simple because we are paying for this by repealing the top bracket, repealing the acceleration of the reduction of the top tier. Some people say: That is a small business bracket. Those people are all small business people. We should do this to stimulate the economy.
That is totally wrong. It is totally incorrect. Less than 5 percent-- probably 2 or 3 percent--of the people who receive benefits in the top bracket are small businesses. Let me put it differently; 2 to 3 percent of small businesses in America are in that top bracket. Just 2 to 3 percent. Most of the people in the top bracket are not small business. They are other people. They are very wealthy people. I have nothing against wealthy people getting a tax break. Everybody should get a tax break. It would be wonderful if we all could get a tax break.
We are elected to make choices and set priorities. The economy today is not in great shape. This bill before us is designed and intended to stimulate the economy by reducing taxes. I suggest the right course would be, instead of giving the elite a tax break right now--a lot of them tell me they do not want it; they do not need it--take some of that money and extend unemployment benefits.
Mr. President, I have the highest regard for my friend from Iowa, but for him to characterize this as a job-killing amendment is just beyond the pale. The fact of the matter is that less than 5 percent of small businesses are in the top bracket that will be repealed under the amendment. That is a very conservative estimate.
Second, when we are talking small businesses under terms of this amendment, we are talking about law firms, we are talking about partnerships of all kinds. We are talking about dental partnerships and doctor partnerships. When people use the word ``small business,'' it conjures up a 15 or 20-person operation that is working hard to make ends meet. When we talk about small business, however, we must be clear as to which small businesses are in that top rate. Less than 5 percent of all small businesses pay that top rate, so we are not hurting small business with this amendment, by any stretch of the imagination.
Second, this roughly 5 percent of small businesses includes the mom- and-pop small businesses we have all talked about, but also the partnerships like law firms and dental partnerships. I do not think the latter really conjures up what we are talking about when we talk about helping a small business. Maybe we are, but I think most Americans are not. That is a fact I want to get in the record, that really so few small businesses are in that top rate.
I ask unanimous consent that the pending amendments be temporarily set aside so that the Senator from Arkansas may offer her amendment.
This is the first I have heard this. I don't know what this is all about. Pending a better understanding of the request, I respectfully object.
I ask unanimous consent that the pending amendment be set aside and the Senator from Arkansas be recognized to offer her amendment.
Madam President, I ask unanimous consent that the pending amendments be temporarily set aside so the Senator from Washington can offer an amendment.
Will the Senator from Washington yield me 10 minutes?
Madam President, the R&D tax credit has been an issue before us for quite some time, almost as long as I can remember since I have been in the Senate. The basic questions are, Should we extend the R&D tax credit and, second, should we make it permanent? Much too often the Congress has decided, yes, to extend the credit, which I agree with, but not to make it permanent. For the life of me, I cannot understand why we have not made this credit permanent.
I have introduced legislation, bipartisan legislation, which Senator Hatch and myself introduced, to make the R&D tax credit permanent. Similar legislation has also been introduced in the other body by Congresswoman Nancy Johnson and Congressman Robert Matsui, along with other members of each of their parties. This is bicameral. It is bipartisan. We believe very strongly that the research and development tax credit should be made permanent. In fact, there are about 28 sponsors of our legislation in the Senate. It is about evenly divided between both sides.
I would like to make a couple of points. The very bottom line is, this amendment will very much help the American economy. Making the R&D tax credit permanent will give U.S. businesses, particularly in the technology sector, the confidence that those companies can invest in research and development and not have to keep guessing whether Congress is going to extend or not extend this tax credit.
I can remember years past, sometimes we would extend it and other times the Congress would not extend the R&D tax credit. There would be a hiatus. I have forgotten how long those gaps were, but, as I recall, they were in the nature of 8 months, 10 months, something like that. Technology companies were wondering, is Congress going to extend the credit? They have in the past. Maybe they will in the future--but will they? This causes great uncertainty in the business world.
The R&D tax credit has a proven track record. It lays the foundation for technological innovation which in turn is an extremely important driving force in the American economy.
Most economists look to productivity gains. When there are productivity gains in the economy, the economy grows. When we have had high productivity gains, our economy has done quite well. In fact, it is important to recall the words of Chairman Alan Greenspan of the Federal Reserve who said, the reason why our economy has continued to grow so well is because of advances in technology that occurred in America and also in the world, which dramatically increased productivity in our country. This is one of the main reasons the economy grew at such a rapid rate in the 1990s.
Granted, some of that was, as the Chairman would say, irrational exuberance. There was a bubble in effect at the time. There were too many people investing because the idea sounded good, without looking closely and directly at the bottom line, whether it was a good investment or not. Nevertheless, it is very clear that technology was a driving force in the 1990s.
There is extensive research showing that tax credits are a very cost- effective way to promote research and development. The General Accounting Office, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Congressional Research Service, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and many others have found significant evidence that the R&D credit stimulates additional domestic R&D spending by U.S. companies. Perhaps more importantly, the R&D investment tax credit benefits American companies and American workers.
A full 75 percent of the R&D credit dollars are used for salaries of employees associated with R&D activities. These are good paying jobs. These are not service industry jobs at the local fast food store. These are very high paying jobs.
Seventy-five percent of the R&D tax credit dollars are used for salaried employees associated with R&D activities. R&D activity creates some of the most intellectual, stimulating, high-paying, high-skilled jobs in the country, encouraging individuals to pursue advanced science and math degrees in order to obtain these job opportunities. That clearly is a big plus for our economy. They create more disposable income for employees which provides additional indirect returns to the economy.
There are ripple effects. Innovations achieved through R&D make a company much more productive, enhances its competitiveness. Downstream companies are also helped. Once a company develops a new product because of research, in most cases, downstream companies get benefits as well--to say nothing of the national security benefits. The more our technology companies engage in research and development, the more likely it is that we are going to have technological advances and developments that help our national security. That, too, is a given.
There is no doubt that if R&D is going to decrease generally, national security is also going to decline. Did you know that the United States lags far behind other countries in giving incentives to businesses to invest within its own borders? Most of our trading partners offer very generous tax and nontax incentives to encourage companies in their countries to invest in R&D. These incentives lower the cost of investing in R&D outside of the United States and give companies receiving these benefits outside the United States a competitive advantage over U.S. companies that don't benefit from similar incentives.
In 2000, the United States ranked ninth behind other nations, in terms of the amount of tax credit allowances for business R&D spending at large manufacturing firms. Countries that provide more generous R&D tax benefits than the United States include Spain, Canada, Portugal, Austria, Australia, the Netherlands, France, and Korea.
This disparity encourages U.S. companies to locate more R&D activities offshore, resulting in a permanent loss of technology advancements, loss of jobs, and a loss of industrial innovation in the United States. Once R&D moves offshore because of other countries giving a tax comparative advantage, then what happens? Then companies tend to manufacture in those same locations and often use available labor in those markets, rather than American workers. Once you are in a location for a period of time, you are more likely to stay. You learn the procedures and the ropes and you feel comfortable. The country starts to be comfortable with you and they start giving you more incentives to stay there. It starts to cascade and go downhill.
I remember years ago, in Saudi Arabia, I was talking to officials there, and the big question was, Who is going to provide the technical advice in setting up a phone system in Saudi Arabia? Is there going to be a big German company, such as Siemens, or an American firm? Which firm will provide the technological specifications for a telephone system in Saudi Arabia? Well, guess what happened. A U.S. company lost; the big German company won. What is even more important about that? Guess who built the telephone system? You got it, the German company.
In this case, I am talking generally about R&D going offshore. Once your foot is in the door offshore, there is a strong likelihood that there are going to be other benefits that will accrue to those other countries, not to the United States.
The timing of this proposal is very important. There is new data compiled for R&D Magazine that projects that U.S. companies spending on R&D will be mostly flat this year, 2003. This makes for flat growth for the second year in a row. This compares with 2001, when R&D spending grew by 5 percent over the previous year. Investment in R&D is not a function of simply economic uncertainty. Businesses often invest less in R&D because of the expense and the long-term planning requirements and the difficulty of capturing all or some of the returns from the investments.
Many economists generally agree that without government support, private sector investment in R&D often falls short of the optimal level of spending necessary to provide maximum benefits to the U.S. economy. There has to be some government assistance. I might add that other countries certainly provide a lot more government assistance to their companies than we Americans do for our own U.S.-based companies--at least in the area of R&D.
One can debate the degree to which there should be any government support to the private sector. I believe there should be support in some cases. In this case, when it comes to R&D, it is clear that we want to maintain productivity advantages, technological advantages, and good jobs for American workers. We want to be as competitive as we can be in the world because that benefits the United States not only in the short term, but very much in the longer term.
Investments by U.S. businesses in research and development can prove very costly over time. Leading edge competitors in Europe and Japan continue to gain ground.
To sum up, we are presented with a great opportunity. What is it? That opportunity is to make our current R&D tax credit permanent--at least as much as we can under the constraints of the bill; second, we also have an opportunity to modify the tax credit to include the additions suggested by the Senator from Washington that will make the credit even more meaningful, including the incremental changes in the credit rates and the addition of a third credit option that is in this legislation.
Madam President, this is a no-brainer. I cannot, for the life of me, understand why this amendment won't pass. That is not just a glib statement that rolls easily off my tongue into the Senate Chamber. I just think that if the tradeoff is between research and development on the one hand, and helping American companies with more incentives to do more R&D on the other hand, compared with the accelerating reduction of the top rate or, in the alternative, of the dividends proposal, we have to make choices as to which is more likely to help this country get more jobs in the short term and in the long term.
I think the answer to that question is pretty easy and clear, and that answer is by making the R&D tax credit permanent. So I argue very strongly in favor of this legislation and this amendment offered by the Senator from Washington. She is on the right track. I think we should pay attention to what she says. She is from Washington. The State of Washington is the home to a lot of high-tech companies.
I thank the Chair and I thank my good friend from Washington.
I ask for the yeas and nays on the amendment.
Madam President, I ask for the yeas and nays on the amendment.
Mr. President, what is the parliamentary situation?
I thank the Chair.
Mr. President, I understand Senator Bunning yields back his time.
Mr. President, I yield 10 minutes on the amendment to Senator Rockefeller.
Mr. President, under the rules, as I understand them, the author of the amendment has control of her time, which is 1 hour.
I ask unanimous consent that the pending amendments be laid aside so that the Senator from Iowa, Mr. Harkin, may offer an amendment.
Mr. President, I inform the Senator from Iowa that he has 1 hour.
Yes.
Amendment No. 595
Madam President, if I might ask the Senator to yield just for the sake of orderly process here in the Senate, as I understand it, the Senator means to offer her amendment. Is that correct?
Technically, as I understand it, we should put aside pending amendments.
I ask unanimous consent the Harkin amendment and the amendment by Senator Grassley be temporarily set aside, as well as the other amendments, so the Senator from Maine can offer her amendment.
Madam President, I yield such time as the minority leader himself may use.
Madam President, I, too, am pleased we are going to be voting to increase aid to the States. Earlier this year, I offered legislation to cut taxes, but its centerpiece was aid to the States. In fact, I suggested $75 billion in aid to the States. That sounds like a pretty large sum, but I suggested in the introduced legislation to provide up to $75 billion because, in my judgment--and I think it is the judgment of most economists--dollars that are spent to help States to balance their budgets will significantly help the economies in those States. Unfunded mandates by the U.S. Federal Government has caused some of the problems the States are facing. No Child Left Behind has been mentioned, and there are others, such as IDEA and special education. There are various unfunded mandates.
We in the Congress have said that the States must provide these services, but the President and the Congress have not provided the money to the States so they can provide these services. So the States have had to figure out how to pay for these services because that is Federal law, they must do so.
In the meantime, as we all know, States have suffered dramatic reductions in revenues because the economy has been down. States all across the country have not received near the amount of revenues they expected in their last budgets. When you add to that rising health care costs in the country, which are averaging 12 to 13 percent higher each year, this is a huge increase to the States' Medicaid budgets and other health care budgets. So it is very important to give increased aid to the States. I am disappointed, frankly, that this bill provides only $20 billion when the need is so great.
I remind our colleagues also, as the occupant of the chair knows well--particularly because her father is Governor of a State--States have to balance their budgets. That is not true for the Federal Government. When States face all these unfunded mandates and a reduction in revenue, they have huge budget deficits, which they have to somehow solve, and they can only do so by raising taxes or by cutting various State services, such as Medicaid--their share--and whatnot.
So that is why we are here today and why so many Senators have spoken out in favor of aid to the States. We are soon to have an amendment offered by the Senator from Washington, which I support. She is going to suggest even more aid to the States. This $20 billion is merely a drop in the bucket. As we all know, the budget deficit in California is $35 billion alone. This bill provides just $20 billion. One State alone is much more than that. My State of Montana is running a budget deficit of about $260 million. We are a small State, but $260 million in deficit is a lot for my State with a population of 19,000 people.
So I join in the chorus, and I particularly thank the Senator from Maine and the chairman of the committee. I also thank the other Senators who are working to put this together. I must say I will support it, but I wish we were a little wiser, frankly, and providing more aid to the States. Certainly $20 billion is low, but if that is all we can get, that is what we face. I thank all my colleagues who have worked on this.
Madam President, I now yield 3 minutes to the Senator from New York.
Madam President, it is my understanding that all Senators who wished to speak on the Collins amendment have spoken.
I ask unanimous consent that all pending amendments be temporarily laid aside so the Senator from Washington can offer her amendment.
I yield whatever time the Senator from Washington desires.
Madam President, I ask unanimous consent all pending amendments be temporarily set aside and the Senator from Michigan be recognized for the purpose of offering an amendment.
Madam President, I ask unanimous consent that the pending amendments be temporarily laid aside so the Senator from Ohio may offer an amendment.
Madam President, I think the Senator from Ohio is on target. It makes excellent sense for the United States to set up some kind of a tax commission to take a good, hard look at our tax structure. As I listened to the Senator's amendment being read, one thought came to my mind, though. That is, commissions sometimes work and sometimes they don't work. And the goal here, clearly, if we do this, is to make it work.
That begs the question, how do you make it work? How do you make it worthwhile, not just some outfit drawing conclusions that are put on the shelf to gather dust. Most commission recommendations are put on the shelf to gather dust.
The one commission that comes to my mind that really has worked--and I can think of many that have not--is the commission on Social Security back in the early 1980s, when President Reagan nominated Chairman Greenspan to head the commission on Social Security. Various Senators were on the commission. Senator Dole was on the commission, and Senator Moynihan. They had a job to do, and they did a pretty good job. It was not political. The President, both bodies of Congress, both political parties, all got together and worked with members on the commission to come up with recommendations to save Social Security.
Two points: One is, the membership is people who really want to do a good job. They work together. There is not any political sniping, no partisan rhetoric. They work together. And it is very important that the composition of the commission be people who do want to work together; that is, the commission not be stacked.
The second point is at that time there was a crisis. Social Security was about to go belly up. A crisis generally creates solutions and results. The complexity of the U.S. Tax Code and the increasing complexity of the Tax Code may have become a crisis in the nature of Social Security back in the early 1980s; I don't know.
I am saying to the Senator from Ohio: It is a good amendment. As most things in life, it is the followthrough that counts, the followup that counts. It is making sure that if we do this, the right people are appointed. I say that in part because when I listened to the Senator, he mentioned two members appointed by the majority leader, one by the minority leader, three by the President, and also the House. It has the possibility of being a stacked deck, possibility of being a partisan commission. That is the last thing we need around here is a partisan commission on tax reform.
I would like to work with the Senator, and I know other Senators would like to work with him, to do the very best we can to make sure this is not a stacked deck, and it is not therefore a commission whose recommendations collect dust on some shelf somewhere but rather something that makes good sense.
One other point I might mention while the Senator from Ohio is here. I know the Senator is wondering, just as I think most Senators in this body are wondering, what is the real effect of dividend exclusion. What effect does it really have. There are a lot of people who have lots of ideas. A lot of economists have spoken on the effect of excluding dividends from income. I think in theory most of us agree there is some inequity between the taxation of equity and the taxation of debt with respect to companies' decisions as to whether to invest or investor decisions as to whether to invest.
One point that often rises in the debate is the wealth effect. What is the wealth effect of a significant reduction in dividend income? Who knows, really? There are all kinds of analyses; different people have different points of view. We are trying to do our best to try to get opinions of people who really don't have an axe to grind, of people who really, as far as we can tell, are pretty straight, who have their heads screwed on straight and they are trying to give us the right recommendation rather than spoon-feed us some political agenda from any side.
I am trying to do the best I can by trying to find people who are probably neutral. The three organizations I looked at that have analyzed the wealth effect of the President's dividend proposal are Brookings Institute, McKinsey & Company, and Goldman Sachs is the third. Let me go through first the Brookings analysis briefly. I think it is instructive.
The total value of equities held by households in the United States is $10 trillion. That is, the total value of all equities held by households is $10 trillion. I will get to institutional investors in just a moment.
The reasonable estimate of the stock price increase due to the President's dividend proposal, according to Brookings' analysis, is 5 percent. The increase in value effect of equities held by households as a result of the stock price increase is about $500 billion. The next question is what is the wealth effect, how much effect of that increase, if it is 5 percent, is going to be translated into spending in the economy.
The Brookings analysis is that the wealth effect--that is, the percent of wealth increase that is consumed rather than saved by households--will be 3 to 5 percent. So that means the increase in consumption as a result of the wealth effect is about $15- to $25- billion, which is about .14 percent to .23 percent of GDP. We all know that usually to have a real stimulus in the economy you need somewhere between 1 and 1.5 percent; and .14 and .23 is certainly very small compared with 1 percent or 1.5. That is the Brookings analysis.
The McKinsey Company's analysis is very similar. I want to read a quote from the McKinsey analysis. I think it is instructive. It says:
But the proposed tax cut (eliminate tax on dividends) isn't
likely to have a major lasting effect on US share prices,
primarily because the key investors who drive them are
already exempt from taxes. What little impact the proposal
may have was probably reflected in the 2.2 percent gain in
the S&P 500 the day before it was announced.
Continuing on to quote:
Those who believe otherwise draw on classic finance theory.
In a world without taxes, theory suggests, shareholders would
be indifferent to whether a corporation paid dividends, since
the funds to do so would come at the shareholders' own
expense. In a world with taxes, shareholders may face
different tax rates on, for example, dividends as opposed to
capital gains. They would care whether a company retained its
earnings or distributed those earnings as dividends, because
this would affect how much they got to keep. If all investors
paid taxes on dividends, yes, share prices probably would
rise if the tax were eliminated.
The fact, however, is that tax-paying US individual
shareholders own a minority of all US shares--
That is, about 28 percent. That is, individuals own about 28 percent.
whereas tax exempt US institutions and individuals who hold
shares in tax-exempt accounts own 61 percent. (The remainder
was
in foreign hands.) For the most part, tax-paying individual
shareholders don't drive share prices, whereas nontax-paying
institutional investors do: the trading activity of a
company's top 40 to 100 investors--again, usually big
institutional investors--accounts for 70 percent of its stock
price movement.
Since these investors are indifferent to the issue of taxes
on dividends [because they are tax exempt] they are unlikely
to set in motion the kinds of changes in their portfolios
that would drive up share prices.
I will soon yield to the Senator from Ohio.
The third reason Goldman Sachs gave in their review is that it would generate no more than a 5 percent increase in stock prices. That is the Goldman Sachs view.
Madam President, I appreciate what the Senator said, and he is correct. We have had all kinds of theories, and it is hard to tell what is the most accurate. Maybe we should just not pass this bill because we are going to make the Code that much more complex by passing this legislation, and so we will at least be giving the commission a bit of a break. I appreciate what the Senator has said.
Madam President, I ask unanimous consent that the pending amendment be temporarily laid aside so the Senator from Florida may offer an amendment.
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that all pending amendments be temporarily set aside so the Senator from Louisiana can offer an amendment.