Madam Speaker, I have never been more concerned about the short- and long-term budget shortfalls we face as a Nation. We must work to address these issues simultaneously in a bipartisan way. Last October the Washington Post reported that…
Madam Speaker, I have never been more concerned about the short- and long-term budget shortfalls we face as a Nation. We must work to address these issues simultaneously in a bipartisan way.
Last October the Washington Post reported that China had replaced Japan as the United States' largest creditor, increasing its holding by 42 percent over the past year. On December 15, the U.S. Department of the Treasury released the ``FY 2008 Financial Report of the Federal Government.'' Not only is America facing a projected $1 trillion in deficit spending for this fiscal year, there is now $56 trillion in unfunded mandates through Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, a number which will only continue to grow and has increased by $3 trillion in the last year alone. Funding the deficit means that U.S. must attract approximately $2 billion a day from foreign countries or risk a drop in the value of the dollar.
I believe that this is an economic, moral, and generational issue. Is it right for one generation to live very well knowing that its debts will be left to be paid by their children and grandchildren?
In the past few days numerous sources have reported that the economic stimulus bill on the agenda of the soon to be Obama administration is expected to cost between $675 billion and $775 billion. Other reports say it could expand to as much as $1 trillion. Whatever package is passed, Congress has a historic opportunity to work in a bipartisan way to address the Nation's looming financial crisis by including a mechanism to deal with the underlying problem of autopilot spending. The bipartisan SAFE Commission I introduced with Rep. Jim Cooper in the 110th Congress would create a national commission to review entitlements with everything--including tax policy--on the table. This idea garnered the support of over 100 members during the 110th Congress. Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad and ranking member Judd Gregg introduced similar legislation, which has also gained momentum. The time is now.
I share with our colleagues a speech by Richard W. Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. ``Storms on the Horizon'' is a sobering account from a monetary policymaker's point of view on why deficits matter. Mr. Fisher calls the mathematics of doing nothing to change the long-term outlook for entitlements, ``nothing short of catastrophic.''
The 111th Congress will have on its watch this unfolding reality. What will we do to make a difference for our country's--and our children's and grandchildren's--future?
Storms on the Horizon: Remarks Before the Commonwealth Club of
California, San Francisco, California, May 28, 2008
(By Richard W. Fisher)
Thank you, Bruce [Ericson]. I am honored to be here this
evening and am grateful for the invitation to speak to the
Commonwealth Club of California.
Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker, two of Ben Bernanke's
linear ancestors as chairmen of the Federal Reserve, have
been in the news quite a bit lately. Yet, we rarely hear
about William McChesney Martin, a magnificent public servant
who was Fed chairman during five presidencies and to this day
holds the record for the longest tenure: 19 years.
Chairman Martin had a way with words. And he had a twinkle
in his eye. It was Bill Martin who wisely and succinctly
defined the Federal Reserve as having the unenviable task
``to take away the punchbowl just as the party gets going.''
He did himself one up when he received the Alfalfa Club's
nomination for the presidency of the United States. I suspect
many here tonight have been to the annual Alfalfa dinner. It
is one of the great institutions in Washington, D.C. Once a
year, it holds a dinner devoted solely to poking fun at the
political pretensions of the day. Tongue firmly in cheek, the
club nominates a candidate to run for the presidency on the
Alfalfa Party ticket. Of course, none of them ever win.
Nominees are thenceforth known for evermore as members of the
Stassen Society, named for Harold Stassen, who ran for
president nine times and lost every time, then ran a tenth
time on the Alfalfa ticket and lost again. The motto of the
group is Veni, Vidi, Defici--``I came, I saw, I lost.''
Bill Martin was nominated to run and lose on the Alfalfa
Party ticket in 1966, while serving as Fed chairman during
Lyndon Johnson's term. In his acceptance speech, he announced
that, given his proclivities as a central banker, he would
take his cues from the German philosopher Goethe, ``who said
that people could endure anything except
continual prosperity.'' Therefore, Martin declared, he would
adopt a platform proclaiming that as a president he planned
to ``make life endurable again by stamping out prosperity.''
``I shall conduct the administration of the country,'' he
said, ``exactly as I have so successfully conducted the
affairs of the Federal Reserve. To that end, I shall assemble
the best brains that can be found . . . ask their advice on
all matters . . . and completely confound them by following
all their conflicting counsel.''
It is true, Bruce, that as you said in your introduction, I
am one of the 17 people who participate in Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) deliberations and provide Ben
Bernanke with ``conflicting counsel'' as the committee
cobbles together a monetary policy that seeks to promote
America's economic prosperity, Goethe to the contrary. But
tonight I speak for neither the committee, nor the chairman,
nor any of the other good people that serve the Federal
Reserve System. I speak solely in my own capacity. I want to
speak to you tonight about an economic problem that we must
soon confront or else risk losing our primacy as the world's
most powerful and dynamic economy.
Forty-three years ago this Sunday, Bill Martin delivered a
commencement address to Columbia University that was far more
sober than his Alfalfa Club speech. The opening lines of that
Columbia address were as follows: ``When economic prospects
are at their brightest, the dangers of complacency and
recklessness are greatest. As our prosperity proceeds on its
record-breaking path, it behooves every one of us to scan the
horizon of our national and international economy for danger
signals so as to be ready for any storm.''
Today, our fellow citizens and financial markets are paying
the price for falling victim to the complacency and
recklessness Martin warned against. Few scanned the horizon
for trouble brewing as we proceeded along a path of
unparalleled prosperity fueled by an unsustainable housing
bubble and unbridled credit markets. Armchair or Monday
morning quarterbacks will long debate whether the Fed could
have/should have/would have taken away the punchbowl that
lubricated that blowout party. I have given my opinion on
that matter elsewhere and won't go near that subject tonight.
What counts now is what we have done more recently and where
we go from here. Whatever the sins of omission or commission
committed by our predecessors, the Bernanke FOMC's objective
is to use a new set of tools to calm the tempest in the
credit markets to get them back to functioning in a more
orderly fashion. We trust that the various term credit
facilities we have recently introduced are helping restore
confidence while the credit markets undertake self-corrective
initiatives and lawmakers consider new regulatory schemes.
I am also not going to engage in a discussion of present
monetary policy tonight, except to say that if inflationary
developments and, more important, inflation expectations,
continue to worsen, I would expect a change of course in
monetary policy to occur sooner rather than later, even in
the face of an anemic economic scenario. Inflation is the
most insidious enemy of capitalism. No central banker can
countenance it, not least the men and women of the Federal
Reserve.
Tonight, I want to talk about a different matter. In
keeping with Bill Martin's advice, I have been scanning the
horizon for danger signals even as we continue working to
recover from the recent turmoil. In the distance, I see a
frightful storm brewing in the form of untethered government
debt. I choose the words--``frightful storm''--deliberately
to avoid hyperbole. Unless we take steps to deal with it, the
long-term fiscal situation of the federal government will be
unimaginably more devastating to our economic prosperity than
the subprime debacle and the recent debauching of credit
markets that we are now working so hard to correct.
You might wonder why a central banker would be concerned
with fiscal matters. Fiscal policy is, after all, the
responsibility of the Congress, not the Federal Reserve.
Congress, and Congress alone, has the power to tax and spend.
From this monetary policymaker's point of view, though,
deficits matter for what we do at the Fed. There are many
reasons why. Economists have found that structural deficits
raise long-run interest rates, complicating the Fed's dual
mandate to develop a monetary policy that promotes
sustainable, noninflationary growth. The even more disturbing
dark and dirty secret about deficits--especially when they
careen out of control--is that they create political pressure
on central bankers to adopt looser monetary policy down the
road. I will return to that shortly. First, let me give you
the unvarnished facts of our Nation's fiscal predicament.
Eight years ago, our federal budget, crafted by a
Democratic president and enacted by a Republican Congress,
produced a fiscal surplus of $236 billion, the first surplus
in almost 40 years and the highest nominal-dollar surplus in
American history. While the Fed is scrupulously nonpartisan
and nonpolitical, I mention this to emphasize that the
deficit/debt issue knows no party and can be solved only by
both parties working together. For a brief time, with
surpluses projected into the future as far as the eye could
see, economists and policymakers alike began to contemplate a
bucolic future in which interest payments would form an ever-
declining share of federal outlays, a future where Treasury
bonds and debt-ceiling legislation would become dusty relics
of a long-forgotten past. The Fed even had concerns about how
open market operations would be conducted in a marketplace
short of Treasury debt.
That utopian scenario did not last for long. Over the next
7 years, federal spending grew at a 6.2 percent nominal
annual rate while receipts grew at only 3.5 percent. Of
course, certain areas of government, like national defense,
had to spend more in the wake of 9/11. But nondefense
discretionary spending actually rose 6.4 percent annually
during this timeframe. outpacing the growth in total
expenditures. Deficits soon returned, reaching an expected
$410 billion for 2008--a $600 billion swing from where we
were just 8 years ago. This $410 billion estimate, by the
way, was made before the recently passed farm bill and
supplemental defense appropriation and without considering a
proposed patch for the Alternative Minimum Tax--all measures
that will lead to a further ballooning of government
deficits.
In keeping with the tradition of rosy scenarios, official
budget projections suggest this deficit will be relatively
short-lived. They almost always do. According to the official
calculus, following a second $400-billion-plus deficit in
2009, the red ink should fall to $160 billion in 2010 and $95
billion in 2011, and then the budget swings to a $48 billion
surplus in 2012.
If you do the math, however, you might be forgiven for
sensing that these felicitous projections look a tad dodgy.
To reach the projected 2012 surplus, outlays are assumed to
rise at a 2.4 percent nominal annual rate over the next 4
years--less than half as fast as they rose the previous 7
years. Revenue is assumed to rise at a 6.7 percent nominal
annual rate over the next 4 years--almost double the rate of
the past 7 years. Using spending and revenue growth rates
that have actually prevailed in recent years, the 2012
surplus quickly evaporates and becomes a deficit, potentially
of several hundred billion dollars.
Doing deficit math is always a sobering exercise. It
becomes an outright painful one when you apply your
calculator to the long-run fiscal challenge posed by
entitlement programs. Were I not a taciturn central banker, I
would say the mathematics of the long-term outlook for
entitlements, left unchanged, is nothing short of
catastrophic.
Typically, critics ranging from the Concord Coalition to
Ross Perot begin by wringing their collective hands over the
unfunded liabilities of Social Security. A little history
gives you a view as to why. Franklin Roosevelt originally
conceived a social security system in which individuals would
fund their own retirements through payroll-tax contributions.
But Congress quickly realized that such a system could not
put much money into the pockets of indigent elderly citizens
ravaged by the Great Depression. Instead, a pay-as-you-go
funding system was embraced, making each generation's
retirement the responsibility of its children.
Now, fast forward 70 or so years and ask this question:
What is the mathematical predicament of Social Security
today? Answer: The amount of money the Social Security system
would need today to cover all unfunded liabilities from now
on--what fiscal economists call the ``infinite horizon
discounted value'' of what has already been promised
recipients but has no funding mechanism currently in place--
is $13.6 trillion, an amount slightly less than the annual
gross domestic product of the United States.
Demographics explain why this is so. Birthrates have fallen
dramatically, reducing the worker-retiree ratio and leaving
today's workers pulling a bigger load than the system
designers ever envisioned. Life spans have lengthened without
a corresponding increase in the retirement age, leaving
retirees in a position to receive benefits far longer than
the system designers envisioned. Formulae for benefits and
cost-of-living adjustments have also contributed to the
growth in unfunded liabilities.
The good news is this Social Security shortfall might be
manageable. While the issues regarding Social Security reform
are complex, it is at least possible to imagine how Congress
might find, within a $14 trillion economy, ways to wrestle
with a $13 trillion unfunded liability. The bad news is that
Social Security is the lesser of our entitlement worries. It
is but the tip of the unfunded liability iceberg. The much
bigger concern is Medicare, a program established in 1965,
the same prosperous year that Bill Martin cautioned his
Columbia University audience to be wary of complacency and
storms on the horizon.
Medicare was a pay-as-you-go program from the very
beginning, despite warnings from some congressional leaders--
Wilbur Mills was the most credible of them before he
succumbed to the pay-as-you-go wiles of Fanne Foxe, the
Argentine Firecracker--who foresaw some of the long-term
fiscal issues such a financing system could pose.
Unfortunately, they were right.
Please sit tight while I walk you through the math of
Medicare. As you may know, the program comes in three parts:
Medicare Part A, which covers hospital stays; Medicare B,
which covers doctor visits; and Medicare D, the drug benefit
that went into effect just 29 months ago. The infinite-
horizon present discounted value of the unfunded liability
for Medicare A is $34.4 trillion. The unfunded liability of
Medicare B is an additional $34 trillion. The shortfall for
Medicare D adds
another $17.2 trillion. The total? If you wanted to cover the
unfunded liability of all three programs today, you would be
stuck with an $85.6 trillion bill. That is more than six
times as large as the bill for Social Security. It is more
than six times the annual output of the entire U.S. economy.
Why is the Medicare figure so large? There is a mix of
reasons, really. In part, it is due to the same birthrate and
life-expectancy issues that affect Social Security. In part,
it is due to ever-costlier advances in medical technology and
the willingness of Medicare to pay for them. And in part, it
is due to expanded benefits--the new drug benefit program's
unfunded liability is by itself one-third greater than all of
Social Security's.
Add together the unfunded liabilities from Medicare and
Social Security, and it comes to $99.2 trillion over the
infinite horizon. Traditional Medicare composes about 69
percent, the new drug benefit roughly 17 percent and Social
Security the remaining 14 percent.
I want to remind you that I am only talking about the
unfunded portions of Social Security and Medicare. It is what
the current payment scheme of Social Security payroll taxes,
Medicare payroll taxes, membership fees for Medicare B,
copays, deductibles and all other revenue currently channeled
to our entitlement system will not cover under current rules.
These existing revenue streams must remain in place in
perpetuity to handle the ``funded'' entitlement liabilities.
Reduce or eliminate this income and the unfunded liability
grows. Increase benefits and the liability grows as well.
Let's say you and I and Bruce Ericson and every U.S.
citizen who is alive today decided to fully address this
unfunded liability through lump-sum payments from our own
pocketbooks, so that all of us and all future generations
could be secure in the knowledge that we and they would
receive promised benefits in perpetuity. How much would we
have to pay if we split the tab? Again, the math is painful.
With a total population of 304 million, from infants to the
elderly, the per-person payment to the federal treasury would
come to $330,000. This comes to $1.3 million per family of
four--over 25 times the average household's income.
Clearly, once-and-for-all contributions would be an
unbearable burden. Alternatively, we could address the
entitlement shortfall through policy changes that would
affect ourselves and future generations. For example, a
permanent 68 percent increase in federal income tax revenue--
from individual and corporate taxpayers--would suffice to
fully fund our entitlement programs. Or we could instead
divert 68 percent of current income-tax revenues from their
intended uses to the entitlement system, which would
accomplish the same thing.
Suppose we decided to tackle the issue solely on the
spending side. It turns out that total discretionary spending
in the federal budget, if maintained at its current share of
GDP in perpetuity, is 3 percent larger than the entitlement
shortfall. So all we would have to do to fully fund our
Nation's entitlement programs would be to cut discretionary
spending by 97 percent. But hold on. That discretionary
spending includes defense and national security, education,
the environment and many other areas, not just those
controversial earmarks that make the evening news. All of
them would have to be cut--almost eliminated, really--to
tackle this problem through discretionary spending.
I hope that gives you some idea of just how large the
problem is. And just to drive an important point home, these
spending cuts or tax increases would need to be made
immediately and maintained in perpetuity to solve the
entitlement deficit problem. Discretionary spending would
have to be reduced by 97 percent not only for our generation,
but for our children and their children and every generation
of children to come. And similarly on the taxation side,
income tax revenue would have to rise 68 percent and remain
that high forever. Remember, though, I said tax revenue, not
tax rates. Who knows how much individual and corporate tax
rates would have to change to increase revenue by 68 percent?
If these possible solutions to the unfunded-liability
problem seem draconian, it's because they are draconian. But
they do serve to give you a sense of the severity of the
problem. To be sure, there are ways to lessen the reliance on
any single policy and the burden borne by any particular set
of citizens. Most proposals to address long-term entitlement
debt, for example, rely on a combination of tax increases,
benefit reductions and eligibility changes to find the
trillions necessary to safeguard the system over the long
term.
No combination of tax hikes and spending cuts, though, will
change the total burden borne by current and future
generations. For the existing unfunded liabilities to be
covered in the end, someone must pay $99.2 trillion more or
receive $99.2 trillion less than they have been currently
promised. This is a cold, hard fact. The decision we must
make is whether to shoulder a substantial portion of that
burden today or compel future generations to bear its full
weight.
Now that you are all thoroughly depressed, let me come back
to monetary policy and the Fed.
It is only natural to cast about for a solution--any
solution--to avoid the fiscal pain we know is necessary
because we succumbed to complacency and put off dealing with
this looming fiscal disaster. Throughout history, many
nations, when confronted by sizable debts they were unable or
unwilling to repay, have seized upon an apparently painless
solution to this dilemma: monetization. Just have the
monetary authority run cash off the printing presses until
the debt is repaid, the story goes, then promise to be
responsible from that point on and hope your sins will be
forgiven by God and Milton Friedman and everyone else.
We know from centuries of evidence in countless economies,
from ancient Rome to today's Zimbabwe, that running the
printing press to pay off today's bills leads to much worse
problems later on. The inflation that results from the flood
of money into the economy turns out to be far worse than the
fiscal pain those countries hoped to avoid.
Earlier I mentioned the Fed's dual mandate to manage growth
and inflation. In the long run, growth cannot be sustained if
markets are undermined by inflation. Stable prices go hand in
hand with achieving sustainable economic growth. I have said
many, many times that inflation is a sinister beast that, if
uncaged, devours savings, erodes consumers' purchasing power,
decimates returns on capital, undermines the reliability of
financial accounting, distracts the attention of corporate
management, undercuts employment growth and real wages, and
debases the currency.
Purging rampant inflation and a debased currency requires
administering a harsh medicine. We have been there, and we
know the cure that was wrought by the FOMC under Paul
Volcker. Even the perception that the Fed is pursuing a
cheap-money strategy to accommodate fiscal burdens, should it
take root, is a paramount risk to the long-term welfare of
the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve will never let this
happen. It is not an option. Ever. Period.
The way we resolve these liabilities--and resolve them we
must--will affect our own well-being as well as the prospects
of future generations and the global economy. Failing to face
up to our responsibility will produce the mother of all
financial storms. The warning signals have been flashing for
years, but we find it easier to ignore them than to take
action. Will we take the painful fiscal steps necessary to
prevent the storm by reducing and eventually eliminating our
fiscal imbalances? That depends on you.
I mean ``you'' literally. This situation is of your own
creation. When you berate your representatives or senators or
presidents for the mess we are in, you are really berating
yourself. You elect them. You are the ones who let them get
away with burdening your children and grandchildren rather
than yourselves with the bill for your entitlement programs.
This issue transcends political affiliation. When George
Shultz, one of San Francisco's greatest Republican public
servants, was director of President Nixon's Office of
Management and Budget, he became worried about the amount of
money Congress was proposing to spend. After some nights of
tossing and turning, he called legendary staffer Sam Cohen
into his office. Cohen had a long memory of budget matters
and knew every zig and zag of budget history. ``Sam,'' Shultz
asked, ``tell me something just between you and me. Is there
any difference between Republicans and Democrats when it
comes to spending money?'' Cohen looked at him, furrowed his
brow and, after thinking about it, replied, ``Mr. Shultz,
there is only one difference: Democrats enjoy it more.''
Yet no one, Democrat or Republican, enjoys placing our
children and grandchildren and their children and
grandchildren in harm's way. No one wants to see the
frightful storm of unfunded long-term liabilities destroy our
economy or threaten the independence and authority of our
central bank or tear our currency asunder.
Of late, we have heard many complaints about the weakness
of the dollar against the euro and other currencies. It was
recently argued in the op-ed pages of the Financial Times
that one reason for the demise of the British pound was the
need to liquidate England's international reserves to pay off
the costs of the Great Wars. In the end, the pound, it was
essentially argued, was sunk by the kaiser's army and
Hitler's bombs. Right now, we--you and I--are launching
fiscal bombs against ourselves. You have it in your power as
the electors of our fiscal authorities to prevent this
destruction. Please do so.