American Recovery And Reinvestment Act Of 2009
Mr. President, I would say to my colleague from Massachusetts, I certainly think that would be a good way to engage in this debate. There are at least four speakers on our side who would like to engage in this discussion today, possibly…
Mr. President, I would say to my colleague from Massachusetts, I certainly think that would be a good way to engage in this debate. There are at least four speakers on our side who would like to engage in this discussion today, possibly one other. We could start, if it would be acceptable to you, and then the Democratic side respond and simply go back and forth in that way, with the time being divided equally.
Mr. President, it would be my intention not to take more than about 20 minutes. That would certainly then permit the kind of discussion the Senator is suggesting.
Mr. President, I think one of the reasons President Obama has not had an easy time getting Republicans to support his stabilization program is because he has misrepresented the Republican approach to this problem, and obviously that is of concern to us. In discussing with the American people his approach to the stimulus of our economy, he has first used some dangerous words, I would say, in describing the emergency nature of this.
A lot of people have said he is trying to scare the American people. I don't think that is true. I think what he is trying to do is demonstrate the seriousness of the situation. But I also believe it is not an excuse for acting in an inappropriate way, to say we have to do something right now, and if we don't, there is going to be catastrophe in the land; therefore, suggesting we need to be less careful about what we do. We believe the President's initial conversations are appropriate and that we need to be careful about how we approach this problem, among other things, because of what could occur over the long term.
He has also mistakenly represented the point of view of Republicans in two specific ways: First of all, suggesting the only reason Republicans oppose this program is because we just believe in tax relief. Of course, we believe in tax relief, but we do not believe that is the only solution to this problem. In fact, we understand there has to be a component that helps people in need, such as the extension of unemployment benefits. We understand that certain kinds of spending can be very effective at a time such as this.
Senator McCain specifically noted some military spending. Because of the way the military operates, they can get the money out the door quickly, and that can be very beneficial. We also focused, first, on housing because that is where this problem began, and that is why our effort to fix housing first was presented on the Senate floor. Our Democratic colleagues rejected that notion. Of course, we also demonstrated why some tax relief can also be beneficial. But we have never said that only tax relief will work.
Our Democratic colleagues like to point out a very high percentage of their bill is tax relief, apparently agreeing with us that tax relief is important. But the two biggest pieces of tax relief in the Democratic bill are, first of all, the rebate program, such as the rebate program last year. Last year, it was $600; this year, it is $500 for 2 years. It was not effective last year, and there is nothing to go suggest it is going to be any more effective this year to stimulate the economy.
The other part that is discussed is the alternative minimum tax relief--so-called AMT. Now, we have been relieving Americans from having to pay the AMT for a decade and not as part of a stimulus bill but because it is the right thing to do. No one ever intended that Americans below the millionaire status would ever be paying the alternative minimum tax. So we have been fixing that each year so Americans would not have to worry about it. It doesn't do to count that as part of the tax relief and suggest it is because of a stimulus intention.
The other thing the President has spoken of that bothers Republicans is talking about the ``tired ideologies'' that got us into this problem in the first place. Now, if you are going to try to get some bipartisan support from Republicans, I submit that is not the way to do it. I would like to know exactly what tired ideologies the President is talking about. What exactly?
Now, in his inaugural speech, I think the President hit a couple of home runs. He talked about ``reaffirming the greatness of our Nation.'' He said:
It has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of
things . . . who have carried us up the long, rugged path
toward prosperity and freedom.
He talked about requiring a new ``era of responsibility,'' and emphasized the values of honesty and hard work.
Now, those are values that are very important to Republicans. We believe that, for example, we should have a Tax Code and Government regulatory policy that at least does not punish those who are risk- takers and doers, who have exercised responsibility and who have helped to make this Nation what it is, including many of the people who work hard and who run the businesses that create the bulk of the jobs in this country. So what exactly is it the President is talking about when he talks about the tired ideologies of the past and responsibility?
There is much talk in this bill of all the aid to the States. Now, the States have doubled their spending in the last 5 years, and most acknowledge they need to get their fiscal houses in order, but many of them are simply looking forward to being bailed out by this bill. So I ask: Is that the kind of responsibility we want to foster or should we expect more of the States so they can do their part in dealing with this crisis?
Does the President believe the tax cuts of 2003 created the recession? Obviously, no one believes that. Not only were they not responsible for the recession we are in, but they are accredited with the job growth and economic stimulus this country received during the middle part of this last decade.
Does the President believe President Bush's efforts to control Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's risky investments and toxic loans caused the pickle we are in right now? Obviously not. Indeed, all the evidence is, it was the President's cohorts in the Congress who stopped the efforts to control Fannie and Freddie and, as a result, this great housing bubble was created and burst, to the detriment of everybody in the country.
Would the President suggest the Reinvestment Act might have had something to do with it? There is a failed policy of the past, essentially making the banks lend money to people who actually couldn't afford it. In the long run, they suffered as much as everyone else because they couldn't carry the mortgages on the homes they were put in. We did not do them a favor, and we didn't do their neighbors a favor, who are now sitting next to a home that is in foreclosure.
It seems to me the President is rather casually throwing out some careless language, and if we would be a little more precise and try to get together as
Republicans and Democrats to identify the problem and work together on it, we would get a lot further.
Let me ask this question. If the question were put to the Senate today: If you knew that a bill in the Senate was going to cause a recession in 10 years, would you support it? Well, that is what the Congressional Budget Office--the bipartisan office that supports our efforts in the Congress--says about this legislation; that there will be negative economic growth--negative GDP--in a decade as a result of this legislation.
According to the CBO report, dated February 4, sent to Judd Gregg, the ranking member of the Committee on the Budget, they say:
CBO estimates that by 2019 the Senate legislation would
reduce GDP by 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent.
Now, that is 10 years from now. That means if this went on for at least two quarters, that is the definition of a recession. They note in the very beginning that the effects of the legislation would diminish rapidly after 2010 and that in the long term, GDP will be reduced.
If you have a bill before you that you are told by the experts is going to result in a recession, would you maybe want to stop and think twice about what you are doing? There is evidence that this is kind of a sugar high. We put a lot of spending out now, but once the high is gone and you crash, you are going to be in a recession. That, in effect, is what is stated here. Just as we do not let our kids have too much candy, I think we need to be a little careful about legislation which we are told is going to result in a recession.
It is not just the CBO. In December 2008, the National Bureau of Economic Research published a document titled ``What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?'' by Andrew Mountford of the University of London and Harald Uhlig. I am quoting:
The best fiscal policy to stimulate the economy is a
deficit-financed tax cut [and] the long-term costs of fiscal
expansion through government spending are probably greater
than the short-term gains.
In other words, in effect confirming what the CBO has said.
They explain why:
[That's because] government spending shocks crowd out both
residential and non-residential investment--
By the way, the CBO report I cited does talk about the increase in the national debt crowding out private investment with the same negative effect--
while the [positive] response of consumption is small and
only significantly different from zero on impact.
But suppose these recent studies were mistaken, I suggest, and the spending spree would even work as advertised. We are still left with the number of jobs allegedly to be created at a very significant cost, well over a quarter million dollars per job.
The bottom line here is that doing something temporary which is going to cost a lot of money and result in long-term economic downturn is not the kind of policies we should be pursuing.
One of the concerns Republicans have had is that it is not only the amount of money that is being spent in this bill--and it is a shocker. It is over $1 trillion. And incidentally, the deal that was reached yesterday still has us spending something like $1.17 trillion, so this is still a very big spending bill.
By the way, the President acknowledged it is a spending bill. He said that is the whole point. One of the problems with that is that you cannot fix it by simply shaving a little bit off of some of the elements of spending, as this deal apparently does. You have to start fundamentally at the bottom.
Actually, Larry Summers, who is the chief economic adviser of the President, had it right when he says this of legislation: ``The investments,'' he says, ``will be chosen strategically based on what yields the highest rate of return for the economy.'' That is the way it should be done, built from the bottom up based only on what actually does the most good rather than simply throwing a lot of spending at the problem and hoping that some of it sticks or actually trickles down and actually helps the American people. This legislation, the so-called deal here, doesn't build it from the bottom up. It takes the base bill and just shaves some off different pieces of it.
I would note that we do not have text of the legislation yet, so we are dealing with a couple of different press releases, which, by the way, don't identify who put them out, and they are slightly different with respect to what they say. So when we are discussing this deal, we still do not know what it is. This is Saturday. We are supposed to vote on this on Monday. Obviously, we are not going to be here tomorrow. Is this a way to legislate over $1 trillion of spending that is going to be a burden on our children and grandchildren? I think not. I think the authors of this legislation owe us a little more consideration in getting the facts to us about what the bill actually does.
As I said, the two big tax pieces are the AMT relief--which we have done routinely each year, not as part of a stimulus but because it is the right thing to do--and the rebate part, which we know did not work last time, and there is no reason to believe it is going to work this time. There is only about 2.5 percent of the tax part of the bill which actually goes to business tax relief, potentially enabling businesses to create jobs--for example, allowing them to write off purchases of equipment earlier than they otherwise would, therefore incentivizing them to hire people and thereby, obviously, creating jobs. That is the tax part of this.
On the spending side, we are told that there are certain reductions in certain of the accounts. But, as we look through it, many of the things that were criticized before appear to still be there. If you take what was added on the Senate floor to the deal that was struck, you are at about $827 billion, which is still above the level of the House bill which was criticized strongly by proponents of the deal last evening on the floor. They called the House bill a Christmas tree. Yet this bill in its total amount is above the level of the House bill. There may have been a 4.7-percent reduction from the level of spending in the House bill, but it obviously doesn't change it from being a Christmas tree. It has not been fundamentally altered from the bottom up with an effort to invest in things that actually will stimulate jobs. It simply shaved off some of the excess spending in the bill.
For example, as we understand it, in the building account, the Federal building account for Federal buildings, the Senate bill had a $6 billion amount. Under this deal that was made, it is $2.5 billion. So some money was shaved off there. The NOAA facilities construction went down from $795 million to $645 million, a $150 million savings. That is great, but the fundamental problem is that this is not going to create jobs--that remains. Federal auto fleet--they cut that in half, the cars for Government workers, from $600 million to $300 million. The DC sewer system remained unchanged. They didn't actually cut, that I see.
The bottom line, as my colleague from Maine described on the floor, these are the kinds of things that should go through the regular appropriations process where they should compete with other worthy causes, going through the appropriations process and the appropriators make the tough decisions.
My colleague, who is a member on the committee, had a couple of things to say in describing the appropriations process. He pointed out that we have the responsibility to be deliberate and consider these items carefully in the context of the President's formal budget request. Why? Because there are so many worthy things to spend money on that it is our job to make the tough decisions about which ones to put at the top of the list and which ones, perhaps, to defer or to reduce. That is the job these people on the Appropriations Committee do, and they do it well. They have to stick with the President's budget.
What is in this bill is new spending without any kind of tax receipts to cover it or offset spending to make up for it. It is emergency legislation, just added to the debt.
As the ranking member of the Appropriations Committee wisely pointed out, the kinds of projects that are in this bill should go through the appropriations process. It is great that they have been reduced somewhat in number, but that does not solve the fundamental problem.
Let me close here so we can actually engage in this debate. We still do not know whether a lot of the earmarks are in the legislation. My staff has
tried to look. It appears, because they have not specifically been taken out, that several of the items, some of the items I mentioned-- the money for Amtrak, the $1 billion for the census, the new money for the Smithsonian, digital television transmission bailout, the authorization for benefits for Filipino veterans of World War II--all of those things and much more are still in here. Obviously, we will be interested to see whether the final version of the bill, when we actually get it, corrects these deficiencies, but it doesn't appear that they have.
Again, what Republicans are suggesting here is that it is really a four-part process: help those who are in need; target the spending, which will actually create jobs; fix housing first; and provide targeted tax relief that will actually also help to stimulate the economy. That is the Republican approach. I think we have some better ideas that could have been incorporated into this legislation if it had not been such a partisan exercise.
Mr. President, I appreciate the opportunity to engage with my colleague from Massachusetts. I will make five quick points, and then either Senator Sessions will follow me or, if a Member on the other side wishes to speak in between, he will then follow that individual. First let me clear up two things.
The Senator from Massachusetts talked about deficits and, in effect, blamed the Bush administration. I would note the facts which are that last year, under a Democratic-controlled Congress, the deficit doubled from what it was when Republicans were in control, and it is going to double again this year under Democratic control of Congress.
Let me try to make my points. I don't want to take less time from my colleagues.
Secondly, I acknowledge that the Senator from Massachusetts did raise the issue of housing at the White House. The point I wanted to make was not that Democrats and Republicans weren't both concerned, that Democrats didn't have some good ideas. Simply, it is not fair to characterize the Republican position as wanting to deal with tax relief only, that Republicans believe housing needs to be a part of this. In fact, we would prefer to fix housing first rather than, as the Senator from Massachusetts said, we are going to do housing later.
Incidentally, the bill to supposedly fix housing passed last June with both Democratic and Republican support. It was obviously not enough.
Third, the Senator from Massachusetts talked about debt and said, what is the alternative to borrowing, either raise taxes or cut spending. That is true. But he said you can't do either in a recession. Actually, that is not true. As I quoted before, the National Bureau of Economic Research said this about that precise point:
The best fiscal policy to stimulate the economy is a
deficit-financed tax cut. The long-term costs of fiscal
expansion through government spending are probably greater
than the short-term gains. As between the two, some spending
can help. But long-term, it costs more if you have deficit
spending, and it provides for relief if you have tax cuts
financed through deficit.
The fourth point: My colleague from Massachusetts disagreed that this legislation will result in a recession and noted that the CBO report said there would be short-term stimulus. That is exactly right. But what I said is also true. On page 5:
Including the effects of both crowding out of private
investment, which would reduce output in the long run, and
possibly productive government investment, which could
increase output, CBO estimates that by 2019, the Senate
legislation would reduce GDP by between one-tenth and three-
tenths of a percent.
As I noted, the definition of a recession is when you have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.
Finally--and this is probably the most instructive point of all-- there is a clear difference between the parties. But I think it is interesting when my colleague from Massachusetts described as one of the failed ideologies of the past the notion that individual empowerment will do any good, when he ridiculed the idea of letting people keep more of their own money. You have a very stark contrast between what some Democrats believe and what most Republicans believe. Republicans do believe that Americans are better off being allowed to keep more of their money. Why? Because they will make wiser decisions about what their family needs than will some bureaucrat in Washington. I don't mean bureaucrat in a pejorative way. I am a government employee. I didn't get any smarter when I came back to Washington. When I go back to Phoenix or Tucson, I see people struggling to take care of their families, and they are making very important and wise decisions about how to deal with their family budgets. It is true, if they get a tax rebate, they are more likely to save it or pay off credit card debt than to spend it. That is why that kind of tax relief, a rebate, the quick fix that is in this bill, doesn't work. Why? Because Americans make wise decisions with their own money. They know they have to deleverage their own personal budgets, as businesses know they have to deleverage all of their debt.
Let me conclude my remarks.
Republicans believe that individuals are better off in making decisions about their financial future than allowing the government to do it for them. That is why we say, as Michael Steele said, let people keep more of their own money and not have people in Washington decide what is best for them in how they want to spend it.
I am happy to conclude and let Senators respond on their own time.
Mr. President, I have finished what I have to say. My colleague Senator Sessions asked if I would respond to Senator Kerry, because he responded directly to me. He will follow next. There is no rule that says a Senator can't speak twice. Other Senators will rotate in time. I think that is the appropriate way to engage in the debate.