Mr. President, as always the Senator from North Dakota has made an eloquent presentation, a graphic presentation, an intellectually honest presentation of where we stand with regard to the economic policies before us in the Senate. I…
Mr. President, as always the Senator from North Dakota has made an eloquent presentation, a graphic presentation, an intellectually honest presentation of where we stand with regard to the economic policies before us in the Senate. I appreciate his strong effort in trying to educate our colleagues and the public with a graphic demonstration of many of the weaknesses which I will discuss tonight with regard to the conference report, the so-called tax relief program.
Tomorrow, this body will in all probability pass two pieces of legislation which will have tremendous economic impact on the American people and our economy. In my view, they will have a negative economic impact. I do not consider this a jobs and growth package. I believe it is antigrowth, and I will go through some of the reasons that is the case.
One thing for sure is, I know when we pass that debt limit tomorrow-- that $984 billion debt limit, just a little smidgen under $1 trillion. It's like pricing something at $99.95, just under $100. It is so we don't have to say it is by $1 trillion we are increasing the debt limit tomorrow. We are increasing, for every single American who is watching this tonight, their debt load $3,500. That is how much we are increasing it as we spend out that debt limit increase over the next year or 15 months.
By the way, that is $28 billion of debt we are laying on the people of the State of New Jersey. I think they ought to know that. That is a huge cost and a big implication over time. I don't want to talk about the debt limit tonight because we will have time to go through that tomorrow. It is really indicative of the problem; it is not the problem. The underlying economic policy is what has allowed that to happen.
The conference report that will be before us--I hope we get a chance to read it so we don't have $70 billion errors that show up after the fact because of how we have framed it. But I know from the outlines of what we have been able to see this is going to have a dramatic impact on the future of our economy and the quality of life for every American, because in this tax program we are making enormous choices. I think this legislation is going to lead to--well, we already have massive deficits. I am hearing estimates from people in the private sector that we are now well over $400 billion this year--north of 4 percent GDP. That is deepening the debt as we go forward. I think this will weaken the economy in the long term. I will try to say some of the reasons why. I almost certainly know it is going to reduce the quality of life for the people of the United States.
Before I talk about the economic implications, I think this needs to be
framed in the context of the values we are speaking to while we go through this tax cut legislation. It says a lot about us as Senators, Americans, and about what our priorities are.
Here we have a huge set of tax breaks for the privileged few, some would say elite: $93,000 is the estimate for people making over $1 million, with 53 percent of all taxpaying Americans only getting $100 or less. Let's hear that again. Less than 1 percent of taxpayers make over a million dollars, but they get a $93,000 tax break, and 53 percent of the taxpaying Americans get less than $100.
What are we trading that off against with our ability to invest back in America? I don't think investing in America is really the issue. The administration is calling for deep cuts in education. We are not fulfilling our mandate on Leave No Child Behind. We gave them the test, but not the money. We are talking about limiting the benefits for our veterans. We are cutting back on the number of people who have access to veterans hospitals and clinics in my home State--a number of veterans who have access to a prescription drug benefit they were promised. We are talking about limiting the dollars we can invest in homeland security.
We are now at level orange, and every State and community now has their law enforcement and local folks on overtime, running up huge tabs. In New Jersey, I think the figure is about $1.2 million a week, with the way they calculated it the last time. If it is wrong, it is a lot more. These are incredible burdens we are putting on them. Frankly, I think what really is a mistake is that we are going to lose our ability to protect Social Security and make sure Medicare is there for future generations. We have 37 million Americans now who are over 65 and in another 10, 15 years, we will have about 75 million, give or take. We will not, with tax policies that we have in place today, be able to secure Social Security and Medicare as we know it today. You are going to hear the term ``reform'' all the time. All that is about is not having the capacity to deal with the demands Medicare is going to place on our system of Social Security in the years ahead. Some of us think there is a real attempt to undermine the basic social safety net programs that are very much a part of the values of the American way of life.
Maybe the President and my colleagues on the other side of the aisle believe in this tax cut, or that tax breaks for a very limited number of folks are more important than education. I don't think people feel that way in New Jersey. Maybe they believe it is more important to force cuts in Social Security or guaranteed benefits on Social Security down the road. Maybe we need to privatize it because we don't have the resources. I don't think I am hearing that from constituents in New Jersey, and that is not what I will fight for on the floor as we go ahead.
Most of my constituents strongly disagree with those priorities and the values of placing these tax breaks that are heavily loaded and benefiting those who are already doing well in our society versus having the ability to invest back in America the way I think so many believe--at least my constituents. I think it will be a hard sell when they get the fundamental facts out about what this tax cut program is all about.
Having said what I had to say about values, the problem with this legislation goes well beyond those issues. The key problem is very simple. I don't think it works. I just think it is flat out not intended to revive our economy. There is no indication it is going to create jobs. Actually, it might well do the opposite because we are undermining the tax base of our State and local governments. They have to raise taxes. We are taking money off the balance sheets of corporations by giving them encouragement to pay dividends. I don't know how companies go out and hire people, invest in plant and equipment, or put projects together on research and development when they don't have cash. I think that is actually what drives and gives incentive to the corporations to operate. So I have a hard time understanding even the theory of this program.
I know the administration and my colleagues on the other side of the aisle disagree. I know they have a theory about how these tax breaks work. They seem to really believe that huge windfalls or large tax breaks for a limited number of investors eventually will trickle their way through the system to working Americans. They seem to believe cutting taxes will actually increase flows of revenue to the Federal Government. They have to believe that. I believe they are sincere; they must be. I didn't come to the floor to question anybody's motivations or sincerity. But their arguments don't stand up to serious analysis and scrutiny by anyone who stands back and asks: Does this work? What does history tell us? It contradicts these views; it directly contradicts the basic principles of economics as expressed in the past by some of the administration's own policymakers, which I will cite as we go down the road.
We have tried radical supply-side economics before; we tried them back in the 1980s. We certainly got the massive deficits. Then we had the crash of 1987, and we had all kinds of serious dislocations and a sustained period of slow economic growth in the late 1980s and early 1990s. We tried them just 2 years ago when President Bush and Congress pushed through the first tax cut. Where are the results? Tell me what has happened to employment since we passed the first tax cut. I think it is something like we have lost 2 million jobs since then. We have had 2.7 million private sector jobs lost since we have been implementing and debating these kinds of policies. So it didn't work the first time, and we are going to try the second time.
We have to also understand our fiscal position does have something to do with what happens in the economy. We have moved, in the 2 years and 4 months since this administration has been in office, from a projected surplus of $5.6 trillion to a deficit projection of $1.8 trillion.
It is mind-boggling how big these numbers are, but a $7 trillion swing in the cash position of the Federal Government is a big deal. It is not just a little bit of money. That is not $1. That is $1 trillion, $2 trillion, all the way up to $7 trillion of negative cash swing for the Federal Government in 2 years and 4 months.
If you were running a business and you had that kind of cash swing, I guess you would be scrambling to find someone to lend you money. Maybe that is what we are seeing with respect to our dollar today, which has had a 20-percent depreciation. Maybe people are a little less enthusiastic about holding dollar assets outside the United States.
As I said, we lost 2.7 million private sector jobs. Two million people today have been unemployed for over 6 months. Frankly, this administration is on track for the worst job creation record in over 50 years, and we are trying to do the same thing over and over.
The history is clear, at least to this reader of history. Large tax breaks, privileged few, massive deficits, and massive debt simply do not work. They do not make the pie expand; they make it shrink. They do not lift all boats; they drain the economy and hurt everyone, including, by the way, many of those who get the bulk of the tax breaks.
I do not understand why we thought policies were so bad in the 1990s. There was a great expansion of wealth at all levels across the economic spectrum in this country. Probably more millionaires were made in the 1990s than any time in the history of the United States.
That is the history that I know, and it should not come as a surprise because economists have been arguing against these kinds of policies for years. Which economists? The Senator from North Dakota talked about the 10 Nobel Prize winners, and there are 450 economists from academic institutions across America, 250 business folks, economists such as Alan Greenspan, major economists on Wall Street--across the economy-- who speak out against these policies. I will add, and this is the hard one, economists from the Bush administration.
Let me read from the book authored by President Bush's nominee--I guess he has not yet been confirmed by the Senate, but the nomination has been reported out of the Senate Banking Committee--to be head of the Council of Economic Advisers, Greg Mankiw. He is a great economist from Harvard. He wrote the textbook for Economics 101 that is being used at most colleges
across America today. It is called ``The Essentials of Economics.'' I usually bring it with me and read it but I did not do that tonight.
In this book, obviously written before joining the Bush administration, Professor Mankiw, in effect, points out the fundamental fallacies of this tax policy, this fiscal policy. I will take, for example, the argument from many administration officials that deficits do not matter. This happens to be on page 401. I do not have the book. I used to cite it regularly. Professor Mankiw says:
When the Government reduces national savings by running a
budget deficit--
I think that is what we are doing now--
the interest rate rises and investment falls because
investment is important for long run economic growth.
Government budget deficits reduce the economy's growth rate.
That is Professor Mankiw at page 401 of his textbook, ``The Essentials of Economics.''
What about claims that cutting taxes will actually lead to higher levels of revenue? That is the supply-side dynamic scoring. What does Professor Mankiw say about that? This is another quote:
Some supplysiders push their arguments to ridiculous
extremes claiming, for instance, that tax cuts would generate
so much growth that they would be self-financing. The
experience of the Reagan years puts this theory to rest.
Professor Mankiw is obviously right about the bankruptcy of supply- side economics, at least from my perspective. Fortunately, he is wrong about one thing. The Reagan years did not prove it to somebody or a whole bunch of folks because we are trying it all over again. It is alive and well right here in Washington, DC, and we are not following what I think are the essentials of economics, and we are practicing ideological economics, politics, as opposed to dealing with the real world as I think most folks know it.
The truth is deficits do matter. They matter for our economy, just as they matter for ordinary American families, just as they do for our State and local governments, just as they do for everyone who operates in an economic context.
According to one analysis, by lowering national savings and increasing long-term interest rates, the incomes of working Americans would be reduced by about 2 percent, or about $1,000 per person. That is the economic analysis that is often an accepted rule of thumb. While the tax breaks would go primarily to the few of the best-off Americans, most Americans will suffer from this reduction in their income. Most Americans will.
Keep in mind, the Federal debt does not come free. It leads to increases in interest payments that must be paid by ordinary American taxpayers. Over 10 years, spending on interest on additional debt, what might be called a debt tax, in my view--and I would like to get that out--of the increase of the deficit that is projected in the years ahead would amount to $2.4 trillion for the tax cut that we are going to probably sign off on tomorrow.
That, by the way, is $30,000 in interest burden for a family of four. I don't know, that sort of offsets a lot of this talk about the kind of benefit this is supposedly going to have in the pockets of individuals. Somehow or another, those interest expenses for the Federal Government are going to have to get paid by the taxpayer. Somehow or another they are going to have to show up. For a family of four, that is the interest burden.
The impact of higher interest rates is not limited to higher taxes that our taxpayers will have to pay to service the Federal debt. It is also going to impact the debt payments they are going to have to make. It has been estimated that for every 1-percent increase in the deficit as a percentage of GDP, other things being equal, interest rates go up to where they would have been otherwise one-half to 1 percent.
We have a weak economy right now, so we have very low interest rates. Maybe they would be lower if we did not have huge deficits, and if we happened to get back into a more rapidly growing economy, then the increase in interest rates will be very rapid and the cost for ordinary families will be very real.
For instance, on a $100,000 30-year mortgage, the increase in mortgage payments by that 1-percent increase would be a $860 per year payment. That is out of pocket. That is a tax.
Consider what you are going to be paying in additional dollars on car loans, something approaching $100 a year if you had a $10,000 car loan; multiply it out by 30,000, you get $300 or $400 on car loan payments, and then on a $20,000 student loan or maybe it is a $100,000 student loan, and you get another $500. Cumulative, if the economic analysis is right by people who have been doing this over and over, we have families paying something like $2,000 more in higher interest costs than they would pay if we did not have these kinds of deficits.
The Bush debt tax would take a real bite out of family budgets. Remember, 53 percent of Americans are going to get $100 or less, and I just went through how somebody could end up paying $2,000 more in interest expense, which I call a debt tax.
This bill will not really result in tax cuts for many, if not most, Americans, and it will result in a massive tax burden shift with a handful of elite investors paying far fewer Federal taxes and other taxpayers eventually having to make up the difference somehow or another.
Somehow or another it often is at the State and local level. Rising property taxes, sales taxes, State income taxes, and gas taxes all are likely to be going up. I should not say likely; they are going up. New Jersey property taxes at the local level went up 7 percent this year. Across the river in New York City they went up 18 percent.
We are putting a burden on State and local governments that is going to more than make up for anybody's average--pick the number. We are going to end up paying more in taxes at the State and local level than anybody could argue someone is making on the kinds of tax breaks we are doing, other than the very top income earners in America.
This does not do very much for average Americans, for people who are middle income, working hard, trying to make things happen with a solid budget. This is a massive tax shift from those who are doing well to middle-income folks, lower income folks.
Four out of five Americans pay more in payroll taxes than they pay in income taxes. Why we did not think about payroll taxes or wage tax credits is hard for me to understand. That is where the real tax burden is. If we are going to protect Social Security and Medicare as we go forward, I wonder where we are going to get those dollars. Probably right back in the payroll taxes.
In my view, this is not a tax cut; it is a tax shift. Frankly, this should not come as a surprise to anyone. One does not need an economics degree to be skeptical about promises based on the premise that we have a free lunch; that if we cut taxes, revenues are going to grow so much that we do not have to worry about our budget deficit.
The truth is, we pass these tax breaks out to a very narrow segment of society. Everybody else ends up paying. I suppose there might be an argument for the Bush debt tax if it were being used somehow to create jobs and strengthen the economy, but it will not. According to one respected firm, Economy.com, the White House plan, which is similar to the legislation before us in many ways, causes the loss of 750,000 jobs over the next 10 years. That is on top of the 2.7 we have already lost.
In my view, the Republican plan will depress economic growth not only because it will dramatically increase Federal debt but because of its failure to address the worst fiscal crisis facing our States in 50 years.
I am glad we put $20 billion into this program. I am glad that in the negotiations we have provided some help. But with the dividend exclusion and the capital gains tied to State income tax rates, in most instances they are going to be losing, if it were pure dividend exclusion, $10 billion. I do not really know how this is going to apply to the States, but it is not going to be a healthy benefit to our State governments.
Unfortunately, there are a lot of people who do not care. Again, there is this ideological policy as opposed to an economic policy. I will only quote one leading supporter of this proposal who is very strong in supporting most of
the things the administration does, and that is Grover Norquist. He has stated, I guess, what we are trying to practice: I hope the State goes bankrupt.
Well, some of my colleagues may hope that States go bankrupt. I do not think many of them do. The truth is, when States face problems, it is not just State officials who suffer. It is working families. It is kids on CHIPS, the Children's Health Insurance Program. It is Medicare beneficiaries. It is our hospitals. It is our roads. It is all that holds us together as a society.
I go full circle and come back. This is about values as well as about economic numbers: Who gets what and what is going to happen to the economy? I think we are missing it and missing it big time in understanding that for the benefit of a very few, we are actually walking away from helping those in whom I think many of us believe we ought to be investing.
I could go on and on about other elements, but I see the ranking member who has fought so hard for reasonable economic policies, Senator Baucus. He has talked about this as a yo-yo or shell game, whatever one wants to call it, with sunsets. We have made sunsets, which should be a beautiful thought in American minds, into something that is almost silly in the context of this particular package. The $350 billion is really $800 billion to $1 trillion. I am sure those who have proposed this think this is a program that is going to stay on the books. If we are going to stay with this program, including even some of the middle- class income tax breaks on marriage penalty, child tax credits and other things, this will amount to $800 billion to $1 trillion.
This is bad fiction. This is not even a fair representation of the reality of the cost. So not only is it bad economic policy, I think it also challenges the basic values that we should be representing in the Senate. It is not even truthful.
Some could argue that it is Enron-like accounting. I think it is not the right way to deal with the American people to say we have a $350 billion tax cut when we really have a $1 trillion tax cut, at best. It may be a little less, may be a little more, depending on how things work out.
This is going to bring on a new age in tax shelters, a new opportunity that people are going to be working on. They are probably working on it right now on Wall Street. The differential between earned income and dividend and capital gains income creates an enormous bonanza of opportunity for the creative mind to translate current earnings, wage earnings, into capital gains.
There will be more midnight oil burned in the next 3 months figuring out tax shelter strategies than we have ever been able to imagine. From what I understand--again I have not seen the detail of it--we took out all of the closing of loopholes that were a positive part of the Senate bill. I find some of the values that we are reflecting there an enormously disturbing element from what I understand about this conference report.
The saying is, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I think that is what we are doing with this proposal. I do not think it does what it says it is going to do about growing the economy. I do not think it reflects our values. I sure do not think the American people are getting a tax break. What they are getting is a debt tax laid on them that is going to overwhelm any of the benefits. In the long run, we threaten ourselves and our ability to invest in education, invest in Social Security.
I do not get it. I think it is a bad thing to do. I hope my colleagues will have a good night's sleep, think a little bit about how some of this works, come back and be honest with the American people, rid ourselves of some of these gimmickries, and get on with an effective fiscal policy and economic policy that really does work for working families.
I yield the floor.