Madam President, I appreciate the comments of my colleague from Indiana whom I heard a moment ago. I think he is absolutely right. We have deeper and more important problems we need to address, along with the important decisions we make…
Madam President, I appreciate the comments of my colleague from Indiana whom I heard a moment ago. I think he is absolutely right. We have deeper and more important problems we need to address, along with the important decisions we make over the next 24 hours on the debt limit. It is necessary to extend the debt limit, but it is not sufficient. We also have to deal with these underlying fiscal problems, and I think my colleague from Indiana stated that well.
I rise to talk about the debt limit proposal and how we can provide a pathway forward on a bipartisan basis--again, not just to solve this immediate problem that confronts us but also to deal with these deeper and very serious problems we have with our fiscal deficits and a weak economy. It may be good to start by asking why we are here. We are here because we have a law that says the U.S. Government can borrow only so much. The law says the U.S. Government can borrow only up to $14.3 trillion.
That is a lot of money--$14.3 trillion. It is approximately 95 percent of our economy. This is unprecedented, of course. We have never had debts at this level before. Many economists look at this and believe it is already having a very negative impact on our economy to have this huge debt out there because it affects the private sector. But we have come to this $14.3 trillion limit, and now, in order for government to continue to provide everyday government services, benefits to our troops, veterans, Social Security, and so on, the limit needs to be raised.
The Federal Government now borrows more than 40 cents of every $1 that is spent. It seems to me only common sense that when we have maxed our credit card, which is what the Federal Government has done, and when we have this deep underlying problem of these huge deficits--$1.4 trillion this year, a record level also--and mounting debt, we should deal with the underlying problem before we extend the credit card limit. So that is why we are here.
I think it is an appropriate debate. I wish it could have been resolved sooner. I think it can be resolved over the next day or so, but I think it is an important discussion we have to have. The President has made it clear he would like the debt limit increased, and he would like it increased high enough to last through the 2012 election. Interesting, because election day is not part of the economic calendar. It is not the end of a fiscal year. It is not the end of a calendar year. It is the political calendar. It is unfortunate during this time of such budgetary uncertainty, we seem focused on political deadlines.
Meeting this request the President has made--that it be extended until beyond the election--would be the largest debt increase that has ever been approved by the Congress. It would be over $2 trillion. So, again, I think it is appropriate we have this discussion before we agree to the largest debt limit increase in the history of our country. We have never raised the debt limit that much at one time before.
The President also says we need to do this because the markets want the certainty that a long-term debt limit increase will provide. I think there is something to that, in the sense of market certainty. If there could be a longer debt limit increase, I suppose it would add to market certainty. But markets don't just want a solution to this debt limit issue. In fact, I would argue what they want even more is a solution to the soaring debt itself, and this is not based on conjecture, it is based on looking at what those who are analyzing our economy say.
We have all heard about Fitch, Moody's, and Standard & Poor's. These are the credit agencies a lot of people have been talking about. They are the ones threatening to downgrade our debt. They say we should extend the debt limit, but they also say that is just the first step; that we also have to deal with the underlying fiscal problems in our country or the downgrade will occur. They want a serious commitment to reining in the spending spree that has buried us in debt in the first place. So this has to be dealt with.
A friend of mine, Keith Hennessey, sent me an e-mail tonight, and he had an interesting way to put it, for people who follow the financial markets. He said: We face both a liquidity crisis right now--which is that the Federal Government can't borrow to meet its needs--but we also face a solvency crisis--which is that the accumulation of the Federal Government deficits into the debt are at historic levels, and already harming the economy in very significant ways. So we need to deal with both.
One way to show this commitment to the solvency problem--to the debt problem--is to be sure we guarantee $1 in spending cuts for every $1 we raise the debt limit. There is a formula that was laid out several months ago by Speaker Boehner, and I think it has been widely agreed to. We will see it in what Majority Leader Reid has proposed. As we will talk about in a minute, unfortunately, some of the budget savings he thought were there, based upon the Congressional Budget Office analysis, are not real cuts, but that was the formula he used. The President has also talked about this formula, and I think it is widely agreed we need to be sure we are only extending the debt limit to the extent that we are reducing spending. So if it is going to be over $2 trillion of debt limit extension, we need to find $2 trillion in spending reductions over time.
It is interesting. As I have analyzed how this formula would work over time, it actually makes sense for our economy. If we raise the debt limit $1 but also cut $1 in spending, it not only helps us in the short term but over a 10-year period, what the CBO tells us in terms of what the debt is likely to be, just about at the 10th year we would actually balance the Federal budget. We will not get rid of the debt-- the debt will continue to grow all during that time period, unfortunately--but there would actually be, at the end of that process, an annual balanced budget by repeatedly applying that formula
every time we need to raise the debt limit.
I don't think that necessarily was the intent when the formula was derived, but it is interesting that it is a formula that makes sense to get us to, at least over 10 years, the point where we are not spending more than we are taking in. Given that the President and the majority leader would like to see a debt increase of over $2 trillion, and Republicans--and even many Democrats--want to be sure there is an equal size spending cut, it seems to me there is an obvious way forward.
We can raise the debt limit for this extended period of time, but we have to require equal spending cuts, and they have to be real. If they are not meaningful and credible spending cuts, then we will have the same negative economic consequences we have been talking about tonight: The credit agencies will downgrade our debt and we will have higher interest rates, which will affect every American family--student loans, credit card loans, certainly our mortgages. It will affect small businesses trying to get credit and that are trying to hire people. If you have a car loan, it will affect you. It affects the entire economy. So we have to deal with this issue in a real way, in a way that is credible and meaningful.
Unfortunately, the proposal that Majority Leader Reid put forward, which was intended to meet this formula we have talked about--$1 spending cuts for every $1 in increases--has some spending cuts that do not meet that standard of being credible and meaningful. The biggest one is about $1 trillion in what is called the global war on terrorism spending reduction.
A little background on this. When we are writing the budget baseline, the Congressional Budget Office says we have to assume all the discretionary spending that is happening now will continue into the future. So they assume, for the next 10 years, we will spend about $150 billion a year on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But nobody believes or hopes that will happen. It has not been requested by the President. No one intends to spend that money. In fact, the President's own budget assumes that instead of the $1.7 trillion that would be spent over the next decade, we will spend about $600 billion. That is what the President's budget says. That is what people assume. This means Senator Reid's proposal to take credit for cutting an additional $1.1 trillion that is not going to be spent anyway is not going to be viewed as a credible proposal. Why? Because it is money that is not planning to be spent.
It is a little akin to a family saying: Let's assume we are going to take a vacation we are never going to take, and it is going to cost us $10,000 and then saying: We saved $10,000 on our budget.
I wish it weren't so. I wish the $1.1 trillion was a credible spending reduction we could rely on. But the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, and many other observers have looked at this and said: Frankly, it is not a meaningful reduction in spending. So there are some meaningful reductions in spending in the proposal of the majority leader, but this particular one, unfortunately, is a big part of what he has proposed. Out of his $2.7 trillion in cuts, about $1.1 trillion is this proposal on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. We might hear it referred to on the floor as the OCO spending--overseas contingency operations.
I think one thing we should do as a Congress is make sure these cuts are meaningful and credible, and we can do that.
Second, let's expand this initial round of spending cuts. Right now, if we take out the war spending we just talked about and then look at the Congressional Budget Office's score of the majority leader's proposal, the cuts are just under $1 trillion. It is still a substantial, and I think a credible, proposal of just under $1 trillion, but that is all that is guaranteed. However, Washington is scheduled to spend about $46 trillion over that same period--the next decade. Think about that: $46 trillion and increase spending, by the way, by about 57 percent during that time period.
I think we can do a lot better than just cutting $1 trillion over the next 10 years, and I think we can do it in a bipartisan fashion. I say that because I have identified $2.8 trillion in spending reductions that have been agreed to by some bipartisan process.
The Biden talks, the Gang of 6, the President's fiscal commission, and some of the President's own discussions specifically came up with some spending reductions in addition to this $1 trillion. So my hope is, we can take some of these spending cuts that have been agreed to through some bipartisan process and apply them to this initial package.
Finally, Majority Leader Reid and Speaker Boehner's proposals both have this deficit reduction committee. It is an approach which makes sense, to be sure we get at the longer range problem, which is our unsustainable--very important but unsustainable--entitlement programs; tax reform, which will help stimulate more economic growth; and budget reform, which is clearly needed.
I have been here 6 months. We have done nothing on a budget. In fact, the Senate hasn't done a budget in 2 years. It sounds like we are in need of some reforms to make this place work. So this committee makes sense.
The majority leader calls for the committee to reduce the budget deficit to 3 percent of GDP. I think that is an interesting proposal. I think we need to be sure we know how long it would take to reach that level and how long we should maintain it, because there is no timeframe in his proposal.
So 3 percent of GDP, does that mean we would wait until a certain time period and, say, if it is a 10-year proposal, the ninth year or tenth year and suddenly make those reductions? If so, the reductions would not be nearly as significant.
Instead, we should put a timeframe in place, 5 years or 10 years--I would prefer 5--and say that there will be reductions starting in the first fiscal year to meet the 3-percent target. If you don't do that, then over that period of time, 5 years or 10 years, we will not see the kinds of reductions in spending that I think Majority Leader Reid wishes to see and I know that many of us here on this side of the aisle believe are necessary.
Eventually, we have got to balance the budget, as we talked about earlier, and it needs to be something within the 3-percent committee that leads us to that.
Also, under the majority leader's bill, there is no requirement to actually enact any of the deficit reduction committee's reforms. I think he has a very interesting proposal in terms of having an expedited process on the floor, an up-or-down vote, no amendments. I think that is smart. But if the deficit reduction committee deadlocks or if the deficit reduction committee fails to get the votes here on the floor of the Senate, there needs to be some mechanism, a fail-safe mechanism or so-called trigger for accomplishing dollar-for-dollar cuts.
The House plan responsibly makes much of this debt limit increase contingent on the cuts being actually approved and signed into law. If the President and Majority Leader Reid want the entire debt limit increase now, we would need some guarantee that this deficit reduction would actually take place. A commonsense compromise would be to add sequestration language, meaning you sequester across the board all spending, if the deficit reduction doesn't work, deadlocks, or doesn't pass on the floor even under these procedures. I would say you could limit that sequestration to the size of the debt limit increase, not even the size that Speaker Boehner has, which was $1.8 trillion, or Leader Reid I think assumes, which is even higher than that for his debt reduction committee, but just be sure it meets this formula of $1 spending cuts for every $1 of extension for the debt limit. That seems to be the kind of proposal that, at this late hour, could be agreed to and certainly should be.
Sequestration, by the way, is not a new concept. It has enforced nearly every budget reform law of the past 20 years in the Congress. It can guarantee that, one way or another, we will receive the deficit reduction equal to the debt limit increase, which is, again, the intent by Majority Leader Reid, Speaker Boehner, and others.
Finally, I think we need to allow the Senate to vote on a balanced budget amendment. Let's have a vote. Leader Reid has talked about that, Speaker Boehner has talked about that. I think it is important to provide the representatives of the American people
the opportunity to have an up-or-down vote on a balanced budget, or in many forms of a balanced budget, because there are different iterations of a balanced budget.
It seems this path forward should be able to satisfy both sides. The President and the majority leader would get the larger debt increase limit they want; there would be guaranteed deficit reduction necessary to begin fixing the budget and assuring financial markets that we are up to the task.
I think when you look at the various options we have before us, there is a way forward here. There is a way forward that says, Let's ensure that we have this upfront spending; let's remove the global war on savings gimmick; let's strengthen the initial savings, provide guarantees that this deficit reduction committee will actually work; and then let's have a vote on the balanced budget amendment.
Finally, I have heard the President talk about the importance of having a debt limit increase because of the market uncertainty in the economy. I agree that we need to do everything we can to stimulate this economy right now. We had bad news this week.
I ask unanimous consent for 30 additional seconds.
However, again getting back to our earlier discussion, if we simply extend the debt limit and don't deal with the underlying issue of our fiscal problems, what we called earlier the solvency crisis, we will have these same negative economic consequences.
With low growth in this quarter and, unfortunately, high unemployment over 9 percent, we need to do everything we can to encourage pro-growth economic policies, including tax reform, as we talked about, as well as using the energy resources we have in this country, regulatory relief, and, yes, dealing with our debt and deficit.
I yield the floor.