Mr. Chairman, I appreciate my colleague yielding me time. I would like to talk about that second pillar of our budget which is growth of the economy. Let me briefly address the comments from my friend from Wisconsin who just spoke in terms…
Mr. Chairman, I appreciate my colleague yielding me time.
I would like to talk about that second pillar of our budget which is growth of the economy. Let me briefly address the comments from my friend from Wisconsin who just spoke in terms of the spending.
The gentleman from South Carolina (Mr. Spratt) has told us, as the ranking member of the Committee on Budget, there is more spending in their budget. So if anybody is out of control on spending, the gentleman just outlined he has more spending for education, more spending for the environment, more spending for defense, more spending for veterans, more spending for science, more spending for health care, more spending, more spending, more spending.
How is it paid for? Tax increases.
We have got a deficit problem, but we will not get our hands around it unless we get spending under control as well as grow the economy. That is what I wanted to talk about today.
Back in 1997, I stood down here on this floor, as did many of my colleagues, and talked about our great balanced budget agreement of 1997, which was a wonderful, bipartisan exercise in trying to get some spending discipline. We said we would balance the budget in 5 or 6 years. We were very proud of that.
Within 2 years, the budget was balanced. Within 3, we were in surplus. Why? Yes, because we restrained spending, which was very important; but much more importantly, the economy grew and the economy grew rapidly because we had pro-growth policies in place including tax relief, which some people forget about at that time. And we learned as a Congress, I hope, a very important lesson which is, the way to get back to balance is to grow the economy and restrain spending. It is really pretty simple.
Now, the next couple of years forward when we got into a deficit, how did we get into a deficit? Well, same thing. We did not restrain spending. We allowed spending to grow too fast and the economy took a nose dive. George Bush, when he was sworn in as President of the United States, inherited a failing economy. Within 60 days after he was sworn in, something like that, the economy actually went into a recession, negative economic growth. That is one of the main reasons we are here.
Then we were hit with 9/11, costing the Federal Government billions and billions of dollars and, of course, a bigger hit on our economy. The corporate scandals then hit us, the biggest we have had in our Nation's history. All of
this hurts our economy which decreased the revenues to the Federal Government and we are trying to get back on our feet.
And what I love about this budget, and I commend the gentleman from Iowa (Mr. Nussle) for it, is it does those two very simple things. It restrains spending and it grows the economy.
The remarkable changes we have seen in the last year we need to continue. Since last March, a year ago from this time, when we were in the early stages recovering from that 2001 recession, the terrorist attacks and their aftermath, we have had incredible growth in this economy. In fact, the past two quarters, which is the last two quarters of 2003, we had the fastest growth in our economy in 20 years.
We had 8.2 percent growth in the third quarter, and in the fourth quarter, 4.1 percent. Chart 8 shows the GDP growth we have had. This is over the last couple of quarters. That big line there is the third quarter; 4.1 percent, the fourth quarter.
The blue chip forecasts are for continued growth. In fact, the new forecasts are even more optimistic than that. They show a 4.7 percent growth last year; if we continue these policies that are in place, including the tax relief we just passed in 2001, 2002, 2003.
The Democrat budget again increases spending. It also increases taxes, throws balance off, but the fact is, they are going to hurt the economic growth and that is the key, growing the economy, restraining spending.
We have got some more good news. Over the past year, housing starts are running at their highest levels in 20 years. Mortgage interest rates continue to run at their lowest levels in over 3 decades. The prime rate is at its lowest level in 45 years. Inflation is at its lowest rate in four decades. Exports of goods and services rose in the fourth quarter rose at 20 percent, the fastest pace they have been at in 7 years. And we have seen significant increases in the stock market since a year ago as well.
Chart 10: Very importantly, labor markets are beginning to improve. For the past 20 straight weeks unemployment insurance claims have remained below the benchmark that is established by economists as a sign of an improving labor market. Jobs are beginning to come back. This is key. We do not want to change course now that we are finally making progress.
As chart 11 shows, the unemployment rate is now down to 5.6 percent from 6.3 percent last June. That is lower unemployment than the average in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s. Maybe not the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s; it is lower than the average unemployment in those decades.
We are making progress. We are going in the right direction. We are getting this under control both on the economy side and with regard to jobs. And jobs are incredibly important. This budget will help us to be sure that every person that wants a job can get a job by continuing to grow that economy.
Over 300,000 new jobs in the past 6 months, we are on the right track. We have a clearly improved economic picture. There is more to do, of course, there is. But the absolute wrong thing to do is to get off that track and to get back on the track where the economy is going down, where we are losing jobs.
The speed and strength of the economic recovery has been, in large measure, due to the tax relief we put in place in 2001, 2002 and 2003. What this budget does is, it continues that tax relief.
Again, my friends on the other side of the aisle choose to increase the taxes, $146 billion over the next 5 years. That is what is in the budget. That is what the gentleman from South Carolina (Mr. Spratt) talked about, more spending, more taxes.
So one of the guiding principles of this budget is that the economy must grow and we must continue to create jobs if we are to remain the world's strongest economy and get the budget under control.
The second way we do it is, we make sure that we keep spending under control.
Mr. Chairman, I would just like to say that in order to get this economy to continue to grow as it has, we need to continue the policies that are in place. We do not want to snap back. We do not want to have taxes increase that we have just decreased, which is what would happen under the Democratic alternative. Second, we need to control spending.
Let me list a couple of things we do on the spending side. We hold the line on our own spending, no increase in the legislative branch at all; no new appropriation earmarks without justification; no new mandatory or entitlement programs without new discipline on them; no nonwar emergency supplementals without spending offsets on those supplementals; no budget waivers, and freezing funding for unauthorized programs. That is in this budget; it is extremely important.
The directives are in addition, of course, to holding the line on spending. All the nonsecurity spending is held at a freeze. And, yes, we provide for priorities, but at the same time we recognize we have got to get this spending under control.
None of this is going to be easy. A lot of us here, certainly many in the Senate, have gotten pretty comfortable signing off on spending increases, on free-flowing spending. We cannot keep that up. We need to get this economy to continue to grow. That is what this budget does and we need to keep spending under control. Success at keeping taxes and spending down will mean a stronger economy, will mean more hope and more opportunity for all the people we represent.