Madam Speaker, I would like to bring attention to a letter sent by John M. Reilly, of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, to Minority Leader John Boehner. During the debate on the FY10 Budget Resolution, the…
Madam Speaker, I would like to bring attention to a letter sent by John M. Reilly, of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, to Minority Leader John Boehner. During the debate on the FY10 Budget Resolution, the cost of a cap and trade program became a major point of contention. Mr. Reilly, in this letter, clearly explains the methodology used by MIT to determine the approximate cost to an average family of a cap and trade proposal. As the letter makes evident, the actual cost to the average American family will likely be far less than estimated by our friends on the other side of aisle.
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge, MA, April 1, 2009.
Representative John Boehner (R-OH),
Office of the House Republican Leader, Washington, DC.
It has come to my attention that an analysis we conducted
examining proposals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
Report No. 146, Assessment of U.S. Cap-and-Trade Proposals,
has been misrepresented in recent press releases distributed
by the National Republican Congressional Committee. The press
release claims our report estimates an average cost per
family of a carbon cap and trade program that would meet
targets now being discussed in Congress to be over $3,000,
but that is nearly 10 times the correct estimate which is
approximately $340. Since the issue of legislation to control
greenhouse gases is now under consideration, I wanted to take
an opportunity to clear up any misunderstanding created by
this press release and to avoid further confusion.
Why is this amount so different? As far as I can tell the
$3,000+ is based on the potential auction revenue the
government could collect by auctioning the allowances over
the period through 2050 where a simple average over all years
from 2015 to 2050 was computed. The tax revenue collected
through such an auction, the costs of reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, and the average impact on a household are very
different concepts. Thus, there are several things wrong with
this calculation. First, the auction revenue is determined by
the CO2 price and how many allowances are issued--
allowances tell us how many tons of CO2 (or more
broadly greenhouse gases) will continue to be emitted. The
cost of reducing emissions depends on how much emissions are
reduced not on how much continues to be emitted. Second, the
CO2 price reflects the cost of the last ton of
emissions reduced but there are many options that cost much
less than avoiding the last ton and so using the
CO2 price multiplied by the number of tons (either
reduced or emitted) is also wrong. Third, the average cost to
a household depends on how allowances or the allowance
revenues are distributed. Fourth, the costs are borne over
time and it is wrong to produce a simple average of such
costs as that does not take account of the time value of
money.
We assumed in the analysis we did that the revenue is
returned to households. From data in the report we can
calculate the economic cost in each year (percentage loss
times the base welfare level in each year), and divide this
by the U.S. population, and then multiply this amount by four
to estimate the cost for a representative family of four. We
further apply an economic discount rate of 4 percent to get
the Net Present Value (NPV) cost in each year in the future.
Doing this we find that the NPV cost per family of four
starts at about $75 in 2015, rises to nearly $510 by 2025,
and then falls to $205 by 2050. We can calculate the average
annual NPV cost per family by summing over all years and
dividing by the number of years, and this shows the average
annual net present value cost to be about $340--only a part
of which would be actual energy bill increases. This $340
includes the direct effects of higher energy prices, the cost
of measures to reduce energy use such as adding insulation to
homes, the higher price of goods that are produced using
energy, and impacts on wages and returns on capital. The cost
per household will vary from our hypothetical average family
of four depending on the household's circumstances. Those
households with large heating and cooling bills because of
the climate in which they live or who drive more than average
will face higher costs. Those with smaller homes who live in
benign climates will have lower costs. The higher energy
prices encourage reductions in energy use by increasing the
payback on improvements in energy efficiency, and through
such investments households can avoid paying more for energy.
Jobs and wages in fossil fuel industries are likely to
decline but job opportunities will increase in industries
that produce alternative energy sources or that provide ways
to save energy.
While the $340 average annual cost we estimate for a family
is just one tenth of the $3000+ cited in the misleading press
release, Congress should address the costs of this transition
for middle and lower income families while developing Cap-
and-Trade legislation. In another paper (Report 160, Analysis
of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Tax Proposals) we make some
calculations on the burdens of a GHG tax on families at
different income levels. Our Report 160 shows that the costs
on lower and middle income households can be completely
offset by returning allowance revenue to these households.
Climate change poses severe risks for the U.S. and the
world. It will take efforts in the U.S. and abroad to reduce
emissions substantially to avoid the most serious risks of
climate change. One of the perplexing aspects of the problem
is that the solution involves using cleaner energy sources
that are more costly then conventional fossil fuels. And the
higher energy prices needed to cover the higher costs will
fall disproportionately on the poorer members of society in
the U.S. and in the world. However, the less wealthy members
of our economy also stand to suffer most from climate
change--whether it is through the risks of increased food
prices if climate change disrupts crops, the lack of access
to air conditioning under extreme heat, or vulnerability to
other extreme weather and storm events such as hurricanes
which may increase with climate change. Many of the proposals
currently being considered by Congress and as proposed by the
Administration have been designed to offset the energy cost
impacts on middle and lower income households and so it is
simplistic and misleading to only look at
the impact on energy prices of these proposals as a measure
of their impact on the average household. Concern about the
cost impacts on middle and low income families needs to be
focused on making sure allowance or tax revenue is used to
offset cost impacts on these households rather than as an
excuse for not proceeding with measures that would help avert
dangerous climate change.
Sincerely,
John M. Reilly.