Oil Supply
Mr. President, last Thursday a press release from the Department of Interior came across my desk that at first glance appeared to be the announcement of an April fool's joke. The press release stated beginning April 1, the Interior…
Mr. President, last Thursday a press release from the Department of Interior came across my desk that at first glance appeared to be the announcement of an April fool's joke. The press release stated beginning April 1, the Interior Department will deliver about 115,000 barrels of oil per day to the Department of Energy for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. I thought this was an April fool's prank because this is about the worst possible time for the administration to be taking oil off the market for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Crude oil and gasoline prices are historic highs and inventory levels are near historic lows. Consumers are paying record prices at the gas pumps. Manufacturers and farmers and a whole lot of other folks are paying high prices for diesel fuel. Our airlines face soaring fuel costs and so does the trucking industry. Our economy, which has major problems, will be weakened further by high energy prices.
To make the timing even worse, the Department of Interior plans to begin its oil deliveries to the DOE on April 1, the same date the OPEC cartel is scheduled to start cutting its oil production. The purpose and effect of OPEC's cuts are to raise oil prices further. The effect of the administration's stated plans to keep filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve regardless of the price of oil, if implemented, will be the same, principally because tight supplies and private inventories will become even tighter due to the administration's additional demands for oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Regrettably, the Interior Department's announcement is no April fool's joke. To the contrary, it is another misstep in the administration's illogical and counterproductive practice of putting oil into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, regardless of the price of crude oil.
Over the past 2 years, this practice has pushed up oil prices with minimal improvement to our overall energy or national security and with great detriment to our economic security.
Let's just review what has happened with energy prices. Crude oil prices have been steadily increasing over the past 2\1/2\ years. Last week crude oil reached a 13-year high of over $38 per barrel. So far this year, crude oil is averaging about $35 per barrel. In 2003, a barrel of crude oil cost on average over $31. That was a record at that point. Climbing crude oil prices have led to higher prices for refined products, including gasoline, home heating oil, jet fuel, and diesel fuel.
Today, as well as four times in the last 10 days or so, the price of gasoline reached a record high. Nationally the average price of a gallon of gasoline is now $1.75. In Michigan, the average price of a gallon of unleaded is up to $1.78. There are fears prices could go over $2 if there is even a small interruption in supply.
The DOE's Energy Information Administration, the EIA, projects prices will rise on average to $1.83 per gallon
this spring, and that prices will remain at high levels throughout the year, averaging nearly $1.70 per gallon over the course of the entire year. These high oil and gasoline prices are hurting consumers and businesses. The EIA recently stated the average consumer paid $200 more for gasoline in 2003 than the previous year. Prices this year are already a dime per gallon more than in 2003. Over the course of a year, each 1-cent increase in the price of a gallon of gasoline takes $1 billion out of the pockets of American consumers.
Following the laws of supply and demand, the principal reason oil prices are so high is the amount of crude oil in private sector inventories in the United States is so low.
In fact, our private sector inventories are hovering around record low levels. In January, crude oil inventories fell to levels lower than at any time in the 28 years the Department of Energy has been tracking those inventories.
Why are supplies so low? This administration's oil policies are partly responsible. Since late 2001, the Department of Energy has taken millions of barrels of oil off the market and put them into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
In late 2001, the reserve held about 560 million barrels of oil. Since then, day after day, for over 2 years, the Department of Energy has added an average of about 100,000 barrels of oil per day to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve without regard to the price of oil.
Today, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds nearly 650 million barrels, or 93 percent of its capacity of 700 million barrels.
DOE plans to keep on adding oil to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, no matter what the price, no matter how dangerously low private sector inventories are. In April, the DOE plans to add about 200,000 barrels per day to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, just as it has been doing this month.
By taking oil off the market and pushing up prices when supplies were tight and prices were high, filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has decreased the amount of oil in private inventories. That is because when current prices are high, companies with oil in inventory will draw from those inventories to supply oil to their customers--including the SPR--before they buy expensive new oil.
From April 2002 through the end of last year--a period in which the oil markets were extremely tight, reflecting high prices and low supplies--oil inventories in the private sector decreased by almost as much as the petroleum reserve inventory increased. From April 2002 to December 2003, the Department of Energy deposited about 78 million barrels of oil in the petroleum reserve. During this same period, the United States private sector inventories declined by about 61 million barrels. So the 78 million barrels of oil that were deposited into the petroleum reserve are shown by this red line in the last approximately year and a half, the decline in the private inventories is shown by this white line over the same period. So you can see from the chart that the amount deposited in the reserve is almost the same--slightly more--as the decline in private inventories. That means, despite filling the reserve for almost 2 years, the total oil in inventory, private and public reserve, in the United States during this period increased by only 17 million barrels--under 2 percent.
Several studies have demonstrated that the decrease in U.S. private inventories since April 2002 is directly related to filling of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. While there are other factors as well, such as OPEC production limits and increased global demand for crude oil, especially in China, the filling of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been a major contributor to the decrease in private sector inventories.
Goldman Sachs, one of the largest and most successful crude oil traders in the world, reported the following on January 16th of this year:
Large speculative positions, builds in Strategic Petroleum
Reserves, and low inventory coverage have contributed to
current price levels.
Goldman Sachs also stated:
Past government storage builds [build-ups] will provide
persistent support to the market
and that
current plans for the injection of 130,000 [barrels/day] of
royalty-in-kind barrels into the petroleum U.S. Strategic
Petroleum Reserve (SPR) between now and the end of September
. . . will likely provide even further support.
Here, the word ``support'' means keeping prices high.
In early 2002, the Department of Energy's own staff warned that filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in a tight market would reduce private sector inventories and raise prices and tried to persuade the administration to postpone putting oil into the reserve so oil supplies would be more plentiful.
In the spring of 2002, as prices were rising and inventories falling, the Department of Energy's own petroleum reserve staff warned the following:
Commercial inventories are low, retail prices are high, and
economic growth is slow. The Government should avoid
acquiring oil for the Reserve under these circumstances.
The administration chose to ignore those warnings. The reserve deliveries proceeded. As the DOE staff predicted, oil supplies tightened and prices climbed.
Last week, the Secretary of Energy repeated the administration's position that it would not suspend shipments of oil into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, despite the high prices and low private inventories of oil. The Secretary rejected criticism of the Energy Department's position by claiming that the amount of oil placed in the reserve is too small to make any difference in the price of oil.
But in 2002, the Department of Energy's own staff refuted that very claim. The DOE Strategic Petroleum Reserve staff explained how taking these barrels off the market for an extended period of time would result in a large decrease to the overall supply of oil on the market. This is the DOE staff warning, which was ignored by the DOE and the administration:
If we look at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the
perspective of daily supply and demand, the SPR fill rates
are inconsequential. The fill rate is 100,000 to 170,000
barrels per day compared to world production and consumption
of 75 million barrels per day. However, when OPEC countries
are determined to maintain discipline in their export quotas,
the cumulative impact of filling the SPR becomes more
significant when compared to U.S. and Atlantic basin
inventories. Essentially, if the SPR inventory grows, and
OPEC does not accommodate that growth by exporting more oil,
the increase comes at the expense of commercial inventories.
Most analysts agree that oil prices are directly correlated
with inventories, and a drop of 20 million barrels over a 6-
month period can substantially increase prices.
In fact, commercial inventories did fall, on average, by 20 million barrels in each of the 3 successive 6-month periods. So what the DOE expert staff said is exactly what has come to pass.
``Most analysts agree,'' they said, ``that oil prices are directly correlated with inventories, and a drop of 20 million barrels over a 6- month period can substantially increase prices.''
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve holds by far the largest strategic oil reserves in the world. In contrast, U.S. private sector oil inventories have fallen well below normal levels. Private sector inventories of gasoline are also well below average.
In an article explaining why oil prices are so high, this week's edition of The Economist reports the following:
Another fact . . . propping up oil prices may be what [a]
trader calls ``supply-disruption risk.''
And then The Economist goes on as follows:
These worries have, in part, been fueled by a most
unexpected source: the American Government. Despite the high
prices, American officials continue to buy oil on the open
market to fill their country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
When prices are high, why buy, you might ask, and thereby
keep them up? The Senate has asked that question as well. It
passed a non-binding resolution this month calling on the
Bush administration to stop SPR purchases; but Spencer
Abraham, the Energy Secretary, has refused.
Mr. President, I hope the Energy Secretary and this administration will reconsider that refusal because the day after the Senate adopted our amendment I cosponsored with Senator Collins to cancel the planned shipments of 53 million barrels to the SPR, oil prices in New York and London fell by $1 per barrel on the news that this oil might not be placed in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But after the Department of Energy and key Members of Congress announced opposition to our amendment, even though it was adopted in the Senate, oil prices went right back up.
This real-world price change shows that the cancellation of the currently planned shipments to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve would provide some immediate relief from high oil and gasoline prices and also provide long-term relief, as the additional oil supplies would enable inventories to be built back up to normal levels.
In his testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee last week, the Secretary of Energy cited ``national security'' as the rationale for continuing to fill the SPR despite high oil prices and low supplies. This rationale is unpersuasive for two reasons.
First, the 50 million barrels of oil that the administration plans to put into the SPR over the next year could be more productively used to replenish private sector inventories. Putting this oil into the SPR will raise our governmental inventories from 650 to 700 million barrels, an increase of about 8 percent; whereas keeping it on the market could boost our private inventories from 290 million barrels to 340 million barrels, an increase of about 17 percent. We, therefore, can get more bang for our buck--or, in this instance, bang for our barrel--by keeping this oil on the market.
Typically, a variety of interruptions in oil supplies can occur in the commercial marketplace. These disruptions may be caused by bad weather, political unrest, or mechanical failure in the actual production of oil. Although any particular disruption may not be foreseeable, based on past history it can be predicted, in general, that some such disruption will occur sooner or later. Because our private inventories are so low, those inventories will not be available to cover any such disruptions.
Since the SPR was established over a quarter century ago, we have never needed to release more than 30 million barrels from the SPR at any one time. At the outbreak of the first gulf war, in early 1991, we released 30 million barrels. In the fall of 2000, the last time we released oil from the SPR, we released around 30 million barrels. Even after we lost all oil production in Iraq last year, this administration did not release any oil from the SPR. It, therefore, appears, for the time being, that holding the SPR at the current level of 650 million barrels, which is 93 percent of capacity, would be sufficient security to cover events that are reasonably foreseeable.
Because current inventory levels in the private sector may be inadequate to cover minor supply disruptions, in the event of such a disruption the price of oil would likely spike to well over $40 per barrel, gasoline prices would jump to well over $2 per gallon, and we might even have to tap into the SPR. The way to avoid this painful scenario is to raise private sector inventories by keeping millions of barrels of oil on the market rather than putting them into the SPR. It does not make sense to increase our ability to respond to the most unlikely events at the expense of our ability to respond to the more certain ones.
Adding more oil to the SPR will increase our energy security only slightly while decreasing our economic security significantly. We cannot measure our national security solely by the number of barrels of oil in the SPR. Our economic well-being is also critical to our national security. In deciding whether or not to put oil into the SPR, the administration should adopt a broader view of what is important to our national security.
Affordable gasoline for American consumers is important to our economic and national security. Affordable jet fuel and the health of our airline industry is important to our economic and national security. Affordable diesel fuel and the health of our manufacturing, trucking, chemical, and agricultural industries is important to our economic and national security. When oil, gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel fuel prices are at or near record high levels, we should consider the importance of increasing the supply of oil to these industries as well as to the SPR program.
This real-world price change shows that cancellation of the currently planned shipments to the SPR would provide immediate relief in the oil and gasoline markets, and also provide long-term relief as the additional oil supplies would enable inventories to be built back to normal levels.
It is bad enough that the Department of Energy has refused to suspend SPR deposits. To make matters worse, the Department of the Interior has now announced that it too will take even more barrels off the market starting April 1.
Currently, the administration plans to remove 5.6 million barrels from the market and put them in the SPR during the month of April-- about 190,000 barrels per day. The latest announcement means that, beginning April 1, the administration will be taking even more barrels--for a total between 200,000 and 300,000 barrels per day--of oil off the market.
How much oil is 200,000-300,000 barrels per day? A lot. It is as much oil as we import from many countries, or as much as we get domestically from major oil-producing states. In December 2003, for example, we imported 211,000 barrels per day from Kuwait. In the same month, the State of Louisiana produced 244,000 barrels daily. Oklahoma produced about 180,000 barrels a day.
Moreover, by taking more oil off the market for the SPR when prices are high, the administration is needlessly increasing the cost of the SPR program for the taxpayers. In effect, the taxpayers will be paying over $35 per barrel for this oil for the SPR. By canceling these expensive deliveries, we could use the money obtained from the sale of this oil for our urgent homeland security needs. Indeed, this is just what the Levin-Collins amendment would do.
The administration sometimes claims that if we suspend SPR deliveries to increase supplies, OPEC might reduce production to counter our efforts. This is not a very good reason for not doing anything to improve our situation. To begin with, we shouldn't avoid doing something that makes sense for our national interests because we're afraid that OPEC might respond by taking action adverse to those interests. We must determine our own security, and not act in fear of OPEC. If they act negatively to us, we should have a response ready. Second, OPEC has not threatened to take any such action. The administration shouldn't project actions that OPEC hasn't even hinted at.
In fact, an article from last Friday's Oil Daily indicates that the effect of the Senate Budget Resolution amendment to postpone SPR deliveries is having a positive effect on OPEC--that in the wake of the passage of our amendment some OPEC members ``are doubly keen to reassure major consumers that they are happy to meet any shortfall [in supply].''
Finally, the same argument could be made against any proposal to increase our domestic oil supplies. If we accepted this argument, there would be no point in us trying to increase supplies in any manner whatsoever. It is always possible that OPEC will counter our measures to increase our energy supplies, but we cannot be paralyzed into inaction by fear of what OPEC might do.
I support filling the SPR, but not at any price. It is time for the administration to consider the effect of filling the SPR on our economic security. It is time for the administration to protect American consumers and businesses rather than just the SPR program. It is time to count jobs and growth, not only barrels of oil. It's time to stop filling the SPR.
I ask unanimous consent that the Department of the Interior press release regarding the reservation of oil for the SPR program, a recent article from The Economist on high oil prices, an article from last Friday's Oil Daily, and a bipartisan letter to the President from 53 House members urging the suspension of shipments to the SPR be printed in the Record.
Mr. President, the Senate has spoken. The administration should listen to common sense and to what the market says, that when supply in the private sector goes down, prices go up, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fills have made a major contribution to high oil and gasoline prices in this country. It adds little to our energy or economic security for the administration to pursue the course it is on. I hope it will reconsider the SPR deposits.
I yield the floor.