Madam Speaker, I rise today to bring attention to the negotiations regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. I include in the Record the article, ``Only Washington Can Save the Renaissance Dam Negotiations Now,'' written by Ambassador…
Madam Speaker, I rise today to bring attention to the negotiations regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. I include in the Record the article, ``Only Washington Can Save the Renaissance Dam Negotiations Now,'' written by Ambassador Motaz Zahran, published on April 29, 2021.
[From Foreign Policy]
Only Washington Can Save the Renaissance Dam Negotiations Now
(By Motaz Zahran, Ambassador of Egypt to the United States)
In early April, Ethiopia thwarted yet another mediation
process, this time led by the African Union, to resolve an
escalating crisis on the Nile--where Ethiopia is building the
massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which would
disrupt a primary source of water for Egypt and Sudan. The
negotiations represented what the Egyptian foreign ministry
called Ethiopia's ``last chance'' at a resolution to the
dispute, which has been ongoing for 10 years.
With Ethiopia edging closer to unilaterally filling the
dam's reservoir for a second time--and thus crossing the
``red line'' set by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi--
it may be up to the United States to help broker a peaceful
solution and prevent unrest in the region, which forces of
extremism and terrorism would undoubtedly look to exploit.
The Biden administration, which is currently mulling over
the best policy for managing this situation, must act now. At
stake is the future of the Nile, a lifeline for millions of
Egyptians and Sudanese. In 2011, without consulting either of
its neighbors downstream, Ethiopia began constructing a 509-
foot-tall concrete dam--large enough for a reservoir that can
store twice as much water as Lake Mead, the largest
artificial reservoir in the United States--on the Blue Nile,
a vital upstream portion of the Nile River. If unilaterally
filled and operated, the GERD could inflict incalculable
socioeconomic and environmental harm downstream in Egypt and
Sudan. Last year, flouting a 2015 treaty, Ethiopia started an
initial filling of the dam.
Now, balking at calls for an equitable resolution and
consistent with its established policy of unilaterally
exploiting of international rivers, Ethiopia is vowing to
press ahead with a second substantial phase of reservoir
filling this summer.
The threat the GERD poses is not hypothetical but real.
Choking off an essential supply of water would exponentially
increase the dangers posed by climate change in the region.
As one of the most arid countries in the world, with less
than one-sixteenth the amount of rainfall as Ethiopia, Egypt
is already facing severe water shortages, largely because of
rising temperatures and rising sea levels. In fact, Egyptians
are currently living around 50 percent below the water-
poverty line, and with very little annual rainfall, the
country is almost entirely dependent on the Nile for
renewable water. To manage such conditions, Egypt has adopted
a nationwide system of reusing water several times for
agriculture, achieving one of the world's highest overall
irrigation system efficiencies.
Despite Ethiopia's claims that hydropower projects will
cause no harm, the unilateral filling and operation of
Ethiopia's dam would quickly make matters far worse for both
Egypt and Sudan, causing serious environmental and
socioeconomic damage, potentially forcing droves of families
from their homes.
Further, the GERD would also have deleterious effects on
Egypt's Aswan High Dam, a multipurpose dam, which is the
biggest source of renewable energy in Egypt and is
indispensable in securing the water needs of Egypt and Sudan.
The United Nations notes that every 2 percent drop in
available water impacts 1 million people.
An impact study, conducted by the reputable Dutch firm
Deltares, found that unilateral filling of the GERD could
lead to a water shortage in Egypt of more than 123 billion
cubic meters, and that in the agricultural sector alone,
every 1 billion cubic meter shortage of water caused by
unilateral filling or operation of the GERD, would result in
forcing 290,000 people out of work, destroying more than
321,230 acres of cultivated land, an increase of $150 million
in food imports, and a loss of $430 million of agricultural
production.
The threat the GERD poses is not hypothetical but real.
Right now, another dam built by Ethiopia is causing enormous
harm in Kenya. The fallout is so severe that UNESCO warned of
the extinction of Lake Turkana in Kenya. There has also been
reporting and research on other Ethiopian unilateral actions,
including in the Juba and Shabelle basin, without prior
consultation with Somalia, and their significant negative
impact on water access and security in Somalia.
The social and economic instability triggered by such
unilateral policies could generate greater unrest in the
region. And Ethiopia is stoking the flames by villainizing
Sudan and Egypt by pushing the misleading populist narrative
that attempts to characterize any and all concerns about the
GERD as being rooted in colonialism, claiming that its
downstream neighbors are against Ethiopia's development and
are trying to impose upon Ethiopia ``colonial treaties.''
The situation as it stands today was entirely avoidable.
This mischaracterization is designed to allow Ethiopia to
divert attention from its actual international legal
obligations toward its downstream neighbors, which include
several international treaties that Ethiopia signed--all,
with no single exception, as a sovereign independent state--
including in 1902, 1993, and 2015. These treaties served and
continue to serve Ethiopia's national interests, including,
for example, in relation to its borders. Nonetheless, while
Ethiopia has reaped the benefits from signing these treaties,
it repeatedly attempted to shirk its obligations related to
the Nile River under the very same treaties.
The situation as it stands today was entirely avoidable. A
viable solution has been on the table. In 2019, following a
decade of adamantly rejecting any kind of agreement, much
less the participation of any mediators or observers,
Ethiopia finally accepted the participation and input of
Washington and the World Bank in the process. The three
countries were on the verge of signing an equitable
agreement, a compromise deal inspired by the successful model
of cooperation governing the Senegal River Basin. But at the
eleventh hour, Ethiopia abruptly backed out and claimed that
the proposed agreement deprived Ethiopia from its right to
generate electricity efficiently from the GERD or undergo
future projects, and that it tried to impose water shares to
which Ethiopia does not subscribe.
Contrary to Ethiopian claims, this compromise deal assured
Ethiopia that it will generate hydropower from the GERD
sustainably at optimum levels, in all hydrological
conditions, while protecting the downstream countries from
ravaging droughts. It unambiguously stipulated that it is not
a water-allocation agreement, clearly recognized Ethiopia's
right to undertake future projects on the Blue Nile in
accordance with applicable international law, and allowed the
parties to revisit the agreement in 10 years.
Today, one year later, negotiations are still faltering
under the auspices of the African Union, and Ethiopia's
statements have now disclosed the actual reason it abandoned
the Washington talks: Ethiopia rejects any legally binding
agreement on the rules of filling and operation of its new
dam, demanding a framework of nonbinding guidelines that it
could alter at its whim. This is in contradiction with the
2015 Agreement on Declaration of Principles among the three
countries.
Even though Ethiopia's political statements speak to its
commitment to the African Union-led mediation process,
invoking the shared principle ``African solutions for African
problems,'' Ethiopia's actions clearly undermine, in effect,
the role of the African Union. This has been evidenced by
Ethiopia's categorical rejection, in the most recent meeting
in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in April, of
multiple joint proposals from Sudan and Egypt to empower the
African Union-led process. That's because Ethiopia prefers a
nominal role for the chairperson at the African Union rather
than an active role.
A new era of stability and shared economic prosperity is on
the horizon in Africa and the Middle East, due in large part
to the steady leadership of the United States. One example of
the welcome changes sweeping through the region is the recent
U.S.-brokered normalization agreements between Israel and a
number of Arab states, which was reminiscent of Egypt's
trailblazing treaty with Israel--also mediated by the United
States--more than 40 years ago.
Through principled diplomacy, the Biden administration can
reset the faltering negotiations. The United States has the
leverage needed to successfully encourage Ethiopia to engage
in good faith in the GERD negotiations and to refrain from
unilateral actions and the pursuit of narrow self-interests,
which have been detrimental to its neighbors' legitimate
interests. Soliciting expertise from international partners,
including the United Nations, the European Union, and the
United States, in support of the African Union-led mediation
process would be invaluable in bringing the negotiations to
fruition as soon as possible. This proposal would also ensure
there's no room to falsely point fingers; it would not be
feasible to challenge the impartiality of all these partners
led by the chairperson of the African Union, the way Ethiopia
did with U.S. President Donald Trump's administration after
Ethiopia abandoned the U.S.-led mediation process last year.
History shows that progress along the Nile can be fragile,
and a single dispute can have harmful ripple effects that
destabilize the region and reach our allies in the West.
Failing to resolve the rapidly escalating issue over the GERD
would accelerate the already devastating impacts of climate
change in the area, unleash a wave of illegal migration to
the West, and open the door to new conflicts and even
terrorism in the Middle East and East Africa.
Through principled diplomacy, the Biden administration can
reset the faltering negotiations, bring about an equitable
solution for all parties, and, in doing so, ultimately
safeguard its strategic interests with three important
regional allies.