Mr. President, first, I thank the chairman of the committee, Senator Domenici, for his comments. I agree with his request that we move ahead with amendments. I know there are many Senators with amendments they want to offer. I think the…
Mr. President, first, I thank the chairman of the committee, Senator Domenici, for his comments. I agree with his request that we move ahead with amendments. I know there are many Senators with amendments they want to offer. I think the logical thing to do is to try to deal with all of the ethanol-related amendments at this stage in the consideration of the bill. I hope that by offering an ethanol- related amendment now, on behalf of myself and Senator Sununu, we can begin the process of considering these amendments in a thoughtful way and, hopefully, work through them over the next day or two.
Amendment No. 851 To Amendment No. 850
Mr. President, with that, I send an amendment to the desk and ask for its immediate consideration. It is an amendment to amendment No. 850 that Senator Domenici offered on behalf of Senator Frist and others.
Mr. President, I ask unanimous consent that reading of the amendment be dispensed with.
Mr. President, as I indicated, this is an amendment I am offering on behalf of Senator Sununu and myself. It is to improve the waiver provisions in the renewable fuels standard in the Daschle- Frist amendment.
The amendment we are offering seeks to give the President the authority to suspend the ethanal mandate--he could suspend it with regard to a particular geographic area in the country--in the event there is a severe supply or price disruption to U.S. gasoline markets. We have a way of determining when that threshold is reached. It provides a path for immediate action to be taken to deal with that price circumstance.
This is not a requirement that the President act. This is merely authority for him to act if he chooses to do so. I think we need to make that point so all Members understand we are not requiring any action by this amendment; we are expanding the waiver authority so that additional authority exists if the President chooses to use it. Ultimately, someone needs to have the authority to take immediate action if there happens to be a crisis, if a crisis comes upon us.
The Daschle-Frist amendment waiver provisions--and this is on page 12 of the underlying Daschle-Frist amendment--those waiver provisions give each State the right to petition the Administrator for a waiver in the event of severe harm to the economy or the environment. The process that is outlined can take up to 90 days. It is not necessarily going to take 90 days. It could
take longer, as there is no enforcement really built in, but it is supposed to take no more than 90 days.
The State files the petition. The Administrator has the 90 days, maximum, to make a determination of whether the petition should be granted. In making that determination, the Secretary is required to give public notice and an opportunity for comment. That is a 3-month period--or up to a 3-month period--for a determination to be made and for the mandate to be suspended.
In a crisis situation, a significant amount of economic or environmental damage could be done during that period while all of this notice and opportunity for comment is occurring. In my view, we cannot afford that. Ninety days is too long a period.
The amendment we are offering does not seek to disturb or to weaken the underlying Daschle-Frist amendment. It simply gives the President the authority to take immediate action to deal with urgent issues that may arise in particular regions. If a State or region experiences a supply disruption which they might experience with regard to ethanol or a price spike resulting from the mandate, and a suspension of the mandate is necessary, then we are giving the President authority to suspend the mandate for a 30-day period. He could renew that for an additional 30 days if he chose to. But that is the essence of our amendment. If the gasoline prices rise more than 10 cents as a result of the mandate, that is when this authority would come into place.
Now, this is not the price of ethanol rising 10 cents; this is the price of gasoline at the pump rising 10 cents because of the mandate to use ethanol as required in the Daschle-Frist amendment. If the price of gas at the pump rises over 10 cents, and the Secretary makes the determination that immediate action is necessary, then the mandate could be suspended for the 30 days in this affected PADD, this Petroleum Administration for Defense District, or in the effected State or region.
What does that 10-cent rise in the price of gasoline per gallon mean? Let me refer to this chart I have in the Chamber.
You can see that ethanol is going to be blended with other petroleum fuel in gasoline, and 10 percent of it is going to be ethanol. So, in fact, if you saw a 50-cent increase in the price of ethanol per gallon, that would mean a 5-cent-per-gallon rise in the price of gasoline. If you saw a $1 increase in the price of ethanol per gallon, that would mean a 10-cent-per-gallon increase in the price of gasoline.
I think this chart makes clear that what we are proposing gives the President the ability to act expeditiously. If there is this kind of $1 increase in the price of ethanol itself, that could translate approximately to a 10-cent increase in gasoline. This is a high threshold. Frankly, I know there are Members of this Senate who would say that should not be 10 cents; we ought to have the President have the authority to act if you have a 3-cent increase or a 2-cent increase or a 5-cent increase, and I might agree with some of that logic.
But the truth is, we have tried to write this in a way that makes it clear that this is not authority we would expect to be invoked or to be available to the President under most circumstances. This is authority which would only be available under extraordinary circumstances.
Today prices are at about $1.15 per gallon. Adjusted for inflation, this is roughly where they were back in 1998. There has been some fluctuation.
This second chart that I have in the Chamber shows what has happened to the price of gasoline from 1998 through the current period. You can see that there has been fluctuation in the price of ethanol, but we have not seen enough fluctuation in the price of ethanol from the average price to trigger this authority to ever take place, so that during this entire period this authority would not have come into place. It is clear we are not setting up some kind of a hair-trigger procedure here which will give the President or the Secretary of Energy the ability to step in at will and act.
The amendment we are proposing is simply a safety valve. As I have said several times, it is not automatic. If there is no disruption in supply, if prices do not spike substantially outside the range shown on this chart, then nothing would happen. However, in the event we do have a problem, we would have in place, with this amendment, a procedure for dealing with it.
The reason I think this amendment is important is because fuel transitions are inherently problematic.
We have a lot of history on which to base that judgment. All previous changes to the reformulated gasoline formula have resulted in severe price volatility in gasoline markets. We don't have to go back very far to see that this is the case. In 1996 and in the year 2000, we saw gasoline prices rise substantially, and both times this resulted in gasoline price spikes of more than 30 cents a gallon in California.
There are previous EIA studies that have been done, but they have not addressed short-term issues. That is what we are talking about, short- term supply disruptions. They either look at the long-term outcomes or act to analyze supply disruptions only after they have occurred.
The mandate we are proposing to put into law with the Frist-Daschle amendment does create substantial uncertainty. That has been discussed in some of the debate that has already occurred. The mandate says we will use 5 billion gallons of ethanol in the Nation's fuel supply by 2012. It bans the use of MTBE beginning in the year 2007. While some would prefer to call it a renewable fuels standard, it is in fact a mandate. All of us understand that. By the nature of a mandate, it creates a substantial amount of uncertainty.
While my colleagues may argue that they have crafted a plan that allows plenty of time for the transition from MTBE to ethanol, I have doubts about whether that is the case. Under the mandate in the Frist- Daschle amendment, it is possible that our motor fuels market will see disruptions in supply and price spikes that, if left unattended, could harm consumers and the economy. Our amendment tries to deal directly with that.
We have to keep in mind the MTBE ban affects supply immediately. Once the bill passes, MTBE will be quickly phased out and banned in 16 States; most importantly, in California and Washington and Arizona on the West Coast and in New York and Connecticut on the East Coast. These States in the Northeast in particular are heavily dependent on gasoline product imports from Europe and South America. Venezuela supplies 8 percent of the gasoline volume on the East Coast. The Venezuelan National Oil Company says a renewable fuels mandate could make it difficult if not impossible to import finished gasoline into the United States as they have been doing.
Most of the East Coast imports come into the New York area and need to be suitable for the reformulated gas markets.
As I have said in several ways, there is a lot of uncertainty that we just do not know the answers to. Let me list some of that again. Then I will defer to my colleague from New Hampshire who is here and wishes to speak on behalf of the amendment as well.
Some of the questions that still exist in my mind as regards this mandate are, No. 1, what if we have a supply shortage when refineries are already producing at capacity? What does that do to the price to the consumer? Second, what if our import capacity declines and prices spike even further? Third, what if there is a drought in the Midwest that affects corn production and therefore affects ethanol production? That could significantly affect the price. And it could get the price outside of this area that is reflected on the chart behind me.
Perhaps we could experience problems in transporting the ethanol or an important element in the refinery infrastructure could be damaged at a key hub. There is any number of scenarios that could lead us to supply disruptions, to price spikes. Under those circumstances, we need to have authority vested with the President to take action. We should not be requiring that he take that action, but we should be giving him the authority. We need to be proactive. We need to look forward and analyze potential problems the U.S. motor fuels market could face in the short term, and we need to do this before the disruption occurs.
I urge our colleagues to carefully consider the amendment. It is good policy to build in such a provision to protect consumers in the event of a crisis. It is a good safety valve to add to the bill. It substantially strengthens the bill. I hope my colleagues will agree and that we can add this as an amendment.
I yield the floor. I see my colleague, my cosponsor from New Hampshire, is in the Chamber waiting to speak.
Mr. President, I suggest the absence of a quorum.
Mr. President, I very much appreciate the comments of the leader. I know of his strong commitment to this underlying amendment. I will say what everyone in the Senate knows, which is his reputation, a well-earned reputation, for straight dealing. He indicated to me before I offered the amendment that he would be compelled to oppose it, and I certainly understand. I am anxious to accommodate some of the concerns he has raised.
With that in mind, I send a modification of the amendment to the desk.
Mr. President, let me explain what I did with the modification. I dealt with the issue Senator Daschle raised about his concern that
the language in the previous amendment, as I offered it with Senator Sununu, allowed the Secretary to act on the basis of a prediction about what was going to happen. That language was in the bill, and I just modified the bill to provide that the President--let me clarify that nothing in this amendment gives the Secretary authority to act. This amendment only gives the President authority to act. The President can only act on the basis of a determination made by his or her Secretary of Energy.
Now, with the modification, it would be a determination made by his or her Secretary of Energy that this ethanol mandate, in fact, has resulted in an increase in the average cost of gasoline to end users or it has resulted in a significant interruption or has resulted in an increase in the average cost by at least 10 cents per gallon as a result of the mandate.
In response to that concern Senator Daschle raised, I want to be clear that we have dealt with that in the modification I have just sent to the desk.
Let me also address briefly the other issues Senator Daschle raised.
He indicated the need for this is not there because, in fact, the Energy Information Agency in the Department of Energy has said this mandate will result in an increase in the price of gas per gallon of less than one-half of 1 cent per gallon, and the California Energy Commission has also concluded that there is no appreciable increase that will result from this mandate.
First of all, if you look into the analyses that were done both by the Department of Energy and the California Energy Commission, they were looking over the long term and saying over the long term there will not be, in their view, a substantial increase in the price of gasoline as a result of this mandate. That may well be true. Our amendment does not deal with the long term. Our amendment tries to deal with the short term, and that is where there is a price spike, where there is a supply disruption that causes the price to go up an additional 10 cents per gallon because of the ethanol mandate, if that occurs, and it may well not occur. So there is a difference between the studies that they did, which are long term, and the issue we are trying to deal with, which is short term.
I also point out that another sort of flaw in the argument, at least in my view, is that we are now saying we do not need to put this extra safety valve in the legislation because we have a prediction by the Energy Information Agency and we have a prediction by the California Energy Commission that this will not be needed down the road. It may well not be needed, and certainly I am not here to predict that it will be needed. I am just saying this is a good insurance policy. This is a good safety valve.
The Energy Information Agency has been known to make mistakes in their predictions. As to the California Energy Commission, although I am not totally familiar with all of their work, I would venture to say they have probably made a few mistakes in their predictions. I do not know exactly where they were on their predictions with regard to the price of electricity in California a few years ago, but they may well have missed the mark in predicting what that price was going to be, and they might well have wished there was some similar authority to this in place that could have been exercised or had been exercised when that crisis hit.
So I think this is good government practice, and clearly under most circumstances the appropriate course is to give public notice, to have opportunity for comment and hearings, have all the sides, all the interest groups come in and give their point of view. That is a good course. But if the price of ethanol has gone up substantially or there has been a supply disruption or there has been something that has occurred that has caused the price of gasoline to jump more than 10 cents that is directly traceable to this mandate, I believe the wise course is for us to give authority to the President to take action if he or she decides to take action.
As I say, there is nothing in this amendment that requires anyone to do anything. This amendment merely gives people authority to take action if a crisis occurs, if a price spike occurs, if they determine that action is appropriate.
It is possible, in some future administration, that there will be a Secretary of Energy who is opposed to ethanol perhaps, but I assume that the American people are going to elect Presidents in the future who reflect their views on most issues. If they do not reflect their views, then of course the voters have the opportunity to hold them accountable when there is a follow-on election.
Clearly, I think we are mandating a substantial increase in the use of ethanol. I am not opposing that in this amendment, but I am saying let us at least be a little bit humble about our own ability to predict what might occur in the future. If, in fact, there is a significant price spike because of some problem in transitioning to this new fuel mixture, if there is some price spike as a result of interruptions in supply, then let's have the President, with the authority, deal with the situation, and let's not just say, okay, we are going to require that they go through the normal hoops, give public notice and comments, have hearings, and all of that. I think there is certainly a time for all of that, but there is also a time to take action. When the American people elect a President, they expect the President to have authority to act when the circumstance requires. That is what our amendment would do, and we hope very much it will be agreed to.
I yield the floor.
I am glad to ask for the yeas and nays.
Madam President, in response to the question, my understanding is Senator Cantwell, from Washington, did want to speak on this LIHEAP issue. I don't feel comfortable just agreeing we are going to lock her out of that opportunity. I think we have been advising people that the LIHEAP issue had been put aside for some period of time.
Until we can consult with her, at least, and find out--as I understand it, the Senator is suggesting we go ahead and go to a vote on the Gregg amendment?
That would essentially replace the LIHEAP provisions with a sense of the Senate.
I am saying before I agree to that specific time I would like to be sure to protect Senator Cantwell.
Madam President, in response, I have no problem with proceeding to a vote on my amendment on ethanol at this point.