Mr. President, I rise to briefly talk about the underlying bill and the vote we are going to have on cloture, but mostly to discuss the Cantwell amendment related to the temporary extension of unemployment benefits. Mr. President, we had a…
Mr. President, I rise to briefly talk about the underlying bill and the vote we are going to have on cloture, but mostly to discuss the Cantwell amendment related to the temporary extension of unemployment benefits.
Mr. President, we had a vote on a similar amendment earlier this year, but the amendment before us today was redrafted to reflect changes in high unemployment states. First I want to talk about whether we should extend unemployment benefits--a temporary extension of the Federal program--based on the current unemployment situation. Then I want to talk about some of the details of Senator Cantwell's amendment and the changes that are in her amendment.
The employment picture in this country is looking up by all measures. In the past, employment was looking up according to the household survey, which is the survey that measures employment, including those who are self-employed, people who contract with the Government, and those on payrolls.
But, there are two surveys of employment. The payroll survey does not include people who are self-employed. It does not include small contractors who contract with the Government, and there are a lot of those people today. So the household survey is a more accurate survey of overall employment in this country.
In the past, the household survey and the payroll survey have paralleled each other. There really has not been a difference, so people mainly paid attention to one survey, the payroll survey.
In the past couple of years, we had a recession that was followed by a recovery. It has been called a jobless recovery. But, recessions always have a peak of jobless claims during periods of higher unemployment after recessions.
This is a chart of the last several recessions, and we can see the gray areas are the recessions. These dark lines are a measure of the unemployment rate. We can see after the recessions, either right at the end of the recessions or just after the recessions, we can see the peak in unemployment. This indicates there is always a lag in people being hired after recessions have ended. As the economy starts growing, people are still a bit unsettled in their businesses--Should we rehire people?--and so that peak of unemployment lags after recessions.
We have passed that peak. We had the recession. The recession occurred at the end of the year 2000 and going into the year 2001. We had this recession followed by a slow recovery. And then we had September 11 hit, which just decimated the economy in many areas, especially the tourist economy,
as in my home State of Nevada. It was almost a double dip of a recession. The first dip starting at the end of 2000 and the second dip after September 11, 2001. So we did some things in the Senate to try to overcome that situation. Working with the President, we passed two different tax bills. Those tax bills have had a positive effect on the economy. The economy is recovering. It is still in a growth phase, and it is now moving into the hiring phase of the recovery. As you can tell from recent job numbers people are starting to say: You know what, we really do feel good about what is going on. And they are hiring additional employees.
One of the criticisms has been in the decline of manufacturing jobs. In the past these jobs were declining, and we were losing manufacturing jobs in the United States.
This chart shows manufacturing activity. We can see it down in 1991, it is coming up in 2000, and then, going into 2001, it takes a nosedive. Then in 2001, it came back up a little bit and took another nosedive. We can see in the year 2003 manufacturing jobs have increased by a very nice rate. So the manufacturing activity in the United States is coming back. That is a good sign, and we all welcome that.
The Cantwell amendment would extend temporary unemployment benefits through November, but this is not just a clean extension. The amendment also changes the ``high unemployment'' definition to make more States qualify for additional unemployment benefits. In other words, if her original amendment that we voted on a couple of months ago was enacted today, the only State that would qualify as a high unemployment State would be Alaska.
She redrafted her amendment to where it eliminates what is called a look-back provision, and that look-back provision is what helps determine whether States are high unemployment States. It compares their current unemployment rate to the rates in the previous 2 years.
The amazing thing about that look-back provision is that states with relatively low unemployment could qualify as a high unemployment state under this amendment. According to preliminary analyses of the Cantwell amendment the State of Idaho qualified as a high unemployment state with about a 4.5-percent unemployment rate. That is very low. My State is 4.4 percent, and it is hard to find employees. When the unemployment rate gets that low, it is hard to find employees. Under the Cantwell amendment, the State of Idaho could potentially qualify as a high unemployment State.
Last Friday, the statistics were revealed for last month, the month of April. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.6 percent, and 288,000 jobs, according to the payroll survey, were created. In March, 335,000 jobs were created. Just since the beginning of 2004, almost 900,000 jobs, according to the payroll survey--the one the other side has been talking about--almost 900,000 jobs have been added to the payrolls in the United States. It is the eighth consecutive month of job gains, according to the payroll survey. In that 8-month period, we have had 1.1 million jobs created.
The other thing we have to look at are jobless claims, in other words how many people actually applying for unemployment compensation. The initial jobless claims declined by 25,000 last week, and that was the lowest level since before the 2000 Presidential election.
Also, something that has been talked about on this floor is the number of long-term unemployed, people who have been on the unemployment rolls for a long time or have exhausted their benefits. That number dropped by 200,000. Not only are the unemployment numbers improving, but so is productivity.
I talked before about payroll versus household. I want to emphasize that because the payroll survey is now showing jobs being created.
By the way, this chart shows the 1.1 million jobs by month, and this is the payroll survey. Comparing the payroll with the household survey, in the past we can see how these two surveys parallel each other. But in the years 2000, 2001 and beyond--this is the period we were in the last couple of years--these actually diverge because there were more jobs added to the household survey than the payroll survey. The payroll survey is now starting to catch up.
Why would this occur? Why would the household survey, which measures self-employed people, be different than the payroll survey? The difference comes about because our economy is changing. During times of recession--and this is not unusual for people who cannot find jobs-- they start their own companies. They become entrepreneurs, and sometimes it ends up being the best thing that ever happened to them because they start their own company and end up being more successful than they could ever have been working for somebody else. Senator Bennett referred to his successes in starting businesses earlier today on the Senate floor.
In the last few years, more people than ever have started their own companies. As a matter of fact, 430,000 people now make their full-time living on e-Bay. That is just within the last couple of years. Those people are not measured in the payroll survey; they are only measured in the household survey.
The other side says those who are self-employed do not have jobs. As a matter of fact, the other side says there have been 3 million jobs lost since President Bush took office. That number is according to the payroll survey. The household survey shows 2 million jobs have been added because a lot of those people are now self-employed.
Before my tenure in the U.S. Senate, I was a veterinarian. I was self-employed. My job did not count, according to the other side of the aisle. They say that the household survey does not count. If you are self-employed, you know you are working; you think you have a job; you think that should count. It is an insult to those self-employed people not to count them in a survey of jobs. If we are really talking about jobs, we should have the most accurate reflection of jobs.
Even giving the other side of the aisle just the payroll survey, the payroll survey is improving. It is improving dramatically. Almost 900,000 jobs since the beginning of the year have been added to the payrolls of the United States, which begs the question: why should we extend the temporary extension of unemployment benefits program again?
When the Democrats controlled the White House, the House and the Senate, after the early 1990s recession, the unemployment rate was at 6.6 percent. At that time they said unemployment was low enough to end the program. We have not heard the other side address that issue. I have made this argument on the Senate floor many times this year, and we have not heard the other side address that. They controlled all three of those bodies and yet they saw the fact that 6.6 percent was low enough to end the program.
Fast-forward to today, the Republicans control the White House, the Senate, and the House, and now the Democrats say that, even though the unemployment rate is almost a full percentage point lower than when the Democrats ended the program, now the unemployment is too high and we need to keep the temporary unemployment program going today.
I think that is disingenuous. It is saying while we were in control, 6.6 percent was low enough to end the program, but now the Republicans are in control, 5.6 percent is too high and we ought to keep the program going. They put out the statement from Alan Greenspan, who said we should keep the program going. Well, Alan Greenspan has also said that the biggest threat to our economic long-term growth is the deficit. The amendment that was offered by Senator Cantwell costs almost a billion dollars a month. It is a 9-month extension, and it is an $9.5 billion price tag. That adds $9.5 billion to the deficit. We have already spent $32 billion on this program the last couple of years, which added $32 billion to the deficit. It comes right out of deficit spending.
I believe it is time to end the program. The States have money we gave them. We gave them $8 billion to address the problem of high unemployment in their States. Many States, including the State of Washington, have not used this money. Out of the $144 million the State of Washington received out of the $8 billion, they have only used about $1 million. So if the State of Washington cared about their unemployed, one would think they
would use that money, but they have chosen not to use it. So I think we have fulfilled our obligation during the recession and post-recession when unemployment was high, but it is time to start worrying about the deficit. For those who talk about being deficit hawks, it is time to vote against this program.
Now I do not know whether this was done purposely or not, but in drafting this bill, the author of the amendment drafted it in such a way that it is retroactive to the first of the year. So that means if one is working today, but they were unemployed at the beginning of the year and would have qualified for TEUC at the beginning of the year, they actually would get a check from the Federal Government. I do not think that is the purpose of this program. The purpose of this program was to help those who really could not get a job.
The other reason I do not believe this program should be extended is, during times of economic growth, if one is having trouble getting a job it may mean that they have to move. Well, we are in times of economic growth, but the more comfortable we make it for people on unemployment insurance--in other words, when they are getting these unemployment benefits--the more comfortable we make it to stay on unemployment, the less incentive there is to go out and do what it takes to get a job. It is called personal responsibility.
I believe we are during that time of economic growth--I think all of the statistics show that--and it is time that we end this program and we vote down the Cantwell amendment. The Cantwell amendment violates the budget. We know that. That is why there is a budget point of order that is going to be raised against the Cantwell amendment. The vote we will have will be to waive the Budget Act so that we will deficit spend.
If we want to make sure those jobs are out there for the people who are unemployed today, we have to have a strong economy. Alan Greenspan says the biggest threat to our economy is the size of the deficit. Let us do something about the size of the deficit by voting down this $8 billion program.
I yield the floor and reserve the remainder of our time.
How much time is remaining?
Mr. President, I will take 1 minute and then the Senator from Oklahoma will take 1 minute.
Mr. President, a couple of quick facts. First, when the Democrats were in control in the early 1990s, following the recession, we had this same program. They were in control of the White House, the House and the Senate. The unemployment rate was at 6.6 percent and they voted to stop the program, again, when the unemployment rate was at 6.6 percent. Today the unemployment rate is one point lower at 5.6 percent and, yet, now they want to extend the program. This, at the cost of $9 billion. If one is a deficit hawk and they are worried about the deficit, they should vote against the Cantwell amendment.
This amendment is also retroactive. In other words, if a person has a job now, qualified for TEUC after it expired, then this would apply to them. They would get a check from the Government for the time after January they were unemployed.