Mr. Chairman, I offer an amendment. Mr. Chairman, I yield myself such time as I may consume. Mr. Chairman, we have all heard of forecasting to estimate future spending by our government. Our experience with forecasting the cost of…
Mr. Chairman, I offer an amendment.
Mr. Chairman, I yield myself such time as I may consume.
Mr. Chairman, we have all heard of forecasting to estimate future spending by our government. Our experience with forecasting the cost of entitlement spending shows wild inaccuracies.
A classic example comes from forecasts we used on the spending under a new entitlement program to care for patients suffering from kidney failure. Under estimates before our Congress, Representatives were told 90,000 patients would enroll for taxpayer-funded dialysis by 1995. 90,000 patients enrolled in this new Federal entitlement program by 1985, 10 years earlier than expected. By 1995, there were 239,000 patients in the program, not the 90,000 estimated. Today, in fact, there are 400,000 patients in this program, so spending is wildly above that which was estimated when the program was voted on before this House.
My point with the amendment before us is simple: we need better forecasts before we change or improve entitlement spending programs. We would do that if we started a process which every budget analyst fears, and that is called backcasting. Backcasting by the Congressional Budget Office would require analysts to look at the actual spending over the previous year, with an eye to reviewing the actual errors they made in the estimates used the previous year.
Backcasting would give our budget analysts a grade. It would show the Congress clearly where actual spending of a program differed from the assumptions used in the previous forecast.
Backcasting is now a standard procedure used in nearly every investment house on Wall Street, and every American family with an IRA reviews the estimates of promised performance by their mutual funds and then compares it to what actually happened with their retirement nest egg.
I think it is about time we use this time-tested procedure to improve estimates used to prepare our budget using a rigorous analysis, comparing our previous estimates and the errors made compared to our actual budget experience.
This amendment comes just in time for the budget history of the United States. Right now, over 60 percent of our budget is spent through entitlement spending. Soon 70 percent of the budget will be spent in entitlement spending. This means that the estimates we use to set benefits and beneficiaries are not just important; they are crucial to the long-term financial strength of the United States.
We make vital promises to America's seniors. We must use advanced forecasting and backcasting to make sure that the promises we make to America's seniors are promises that taxpayers can afford to keep.
I appreciate the support of the gentleman from Iowa (Chairman Nussle) on this amendment and the lack of opposition from our senior, very distinguished ranking Democratic member on this.
Mr. Chairman, I reserve the balance of my time.
Mr. Chairman, I yield such time as he may consume to the gentleman from Iowa (Mr. Nussle), my distinguished chairman.
Mr. Chairman, I yield myself such time as I may consume.
Mr. Chairman, I would urge adoption of the amendment. You can imagine CBO analysts do not exactly want to be forced to go back and compare exactly how actual performance deviated from the estimate that they provided.
Mr. Chairman, reclaiming my time, absolutely. You can imagine
CBO analysts are somewhat reticent for us to formally go back and see how their estimates varied.
I urge adoption of the amendment.
Mr. Chairman, I demand a recorded vote.
Mr. Chairman, I offer an amendment in the nature of a substitute.
Mr. Chairman, I yield myself such time as I may consume.
Mr. Chairman, I urge support for the Republican Consensus Budget Substitute. In sum, the consensus substitute saves $445 billion to help protect Social Security and Medicare.
This substitute includes 10 consensus principles that help restrain spending and make it difficult to create new government programs. It represents the work of the Conservative Republican Study Committee and the Moderate Republican Tuesday Group to put spending restraint as a core value of this Congress.
We know that Medicare's unfunded liability is in the red $21 trillion. We know that Social Security's unfunded liability is in the red $10 trillion. In just 5 years, the first baby boomers will start collecting Social Security checks. The number of people collecting Social Security checks will then climb from 40 million Americans to 80 million Americans. To honor our commitment to Social Security and Medicare, we must restrain spending on other programs. Our substitute would cut the growth of other entitlement programs by $445 billion, saving that to meet our Social Security and Medicare commitments.
Now, the Federal Government has made two important promises to the American people: one, to provide for the common defense; and, two, to ensure some retirement security. To honor those expensive financial commitments, we must hold back spending on other programs to keep those promises. In this substitute, we do some things, and we do not do other things. We do not cut Social Security and Medicare. We do honor our commitment to America's retirement security.
And we have other reforms. Ten reforms. They are: a rainy day fund for emergencies, so that we stop our process of emergency appropriations outside the budget.
We have baselines without automatic spending increase inflation adjustments, to begin to slow down the process of spending.
We have annual caps to make sure that we can keep track of the actual budget targets we set.
We have spending controls, automatic reductions, in non-Social Security, non-Medicare accounts to make sure that a budget we pass is one that we actually keep.
We keep promises to seniors by ensuring that Social Security and Medicare are not cut and have additional resources at the government's command to make sure that those programs are strengthened.
We have enhanced rescission protections to make sure that the President would be able to eliminate pork barrel spending projects, like greenhouses in Iowa.
We would be able to also focus on government inefficiencies with a new bipartisan commission.
We would be able to have proper accounting of long-term liability through accrual accounting.
We also have a clear showing of the Federal debt through more transparent reforms.
And, lastly, we maintain our fiscal discipline by making sure pay-as- you-go rules apply to entitlement spending.
Now, many criticize this effort, because while we do not touch Social Security or Medicare, we do hold other spending to the rate of inflation. Some say we must allow government spending to grow much faster than inflation. But if spending grows faster than taxes, we will run out of money; and every senior knows that.
Even Senator Kerry does not agree with the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. They say that we cannot slow health care costs. But Senator Kerry disagrees. And in his latest TV ad he says the following, and I quote: ``We spend about $1.5 trillion every year on health care in America. $350 billion of that has nothing to do with care. It is all paperwork. We will literally save billions of dollars in health care costs in America by becoming more streamlined and more efficient.'' And he could not be more right.
Ask your seniors a question: Should we cut other entitlement programs so that $445 billion can go to protect Social Security and Medicare? Our seniors are savvy citizens. They know that spending in other programs threatens the long-term future of Social Security and Medicare, and they know that the retirement of the baby boom means that we will need to cut other programs to protect Social Security and Medicare.
Mr. Chairman, I urge adoption of the substitute.
Mr. Chairman, I reserve the balance of my time.
Mr. Chairman, I yield 4 minutes to the gentleman from Delaware (Mr. Castle), the chairman of the moderate Republican Tuesday Group.
Mr. Chairman, I yield 1 minute to the gentlewoman from Pennsylvania (Ms. Hart).
Mr. Chairman, I yield myself such time as I may consume. We have an argument here. One side urges spending restraint and the other side urges higher taxes. I lean toward spending restraint and believe that Americans are taxed enough. This Congress was run by the other party in the 1980s and we raised taxes back then. But spending went up even faster than we raised taxes. We remember in the 1980s that for every $1 in taxes raised, the Congress lifted spending by $1.24. Therefore, taxes went up and so did the deficit.
Ask your seniors this question. Should we cut other programs to make sure that we have $445 billion to help protect Social Security? The gentleman asks, what commitment is there by the United States Government to make sure that these savings go to Social Security and Medicare? As I referred to in my opening, we have an unfunded liability in Medicare of $21 trillion, and we have an unfunded liability in Social Security of $10 trillion. There is a sacred bond and a piece of paper from the Treasury Department to the Social Security Administration that says that the American taxpayer will honor these debts.
But with what money? Ask seniors this question: Should we cut entitlement spending to make sure that the money is there for Social Security and Medicare? Should we make sure that their basic retirement security and their basic health care program has the money it needs to cover those sacred promises?
As I said before, we made two sacred promises to the people of the United States: one, that we would provide for the common defense. We made that promise in 1776. And, two, that we would protect at a minimum level their retirement security. But as I said, we are $21 trillion in the hole on Medicare and $10 trillion in the hole on Social Security. To honor those commitments, we have got to restrain spending. We have got to make sure that we have the money available to protect America's seniors, and with that I urge adoption of the substitute.
Mr. Chairman, I yield back the balance of my time.
Mr. Chairman, will the gentleman yield?
Mr. Chairman, I do want to commend the gentleman for a very trying and difficult debate. But this was one of the few times in the Congress where we did not have a scripted debate. This was one of the few times where we did not know how the votes would turn out. And the American people have seen that we are now wrestling with a very difficult problem of how to bring spending under control so that we meet the commitments to Social Security, to Medicare, to the Nation's defense that we have already made.
Mr. Chairman, I demand a recorded vote.