Mr. Speaker, I offer a motion to instruct. Mr. Speaker, I yield myself such time as I may consume. Mr. Speaker, we know that we have a very large problem facing this Congress: we cannot pass a budget. We have got a budget that has passed…
Mr. Speaker, I offer a motion to instruct.
Mr. Speaker, I yield myself such time as I may consume.
Mr. Speaker, we know that we have a very large problem facing this Congress: we cannot pass a budget. We have got a budget that has passed the House, a budget that has passed the Senate, but an absolute train wreck in conference committee with neither side indicating any indication to reach compromise and finish the budget process.
The motion that we have before us, we believe, unlocks this problem. It would have the House pass the motion to instruct conferees relative to the PAYGO requirement, a requirement I will explain more fully in a moment. This passed the Senate and is now, I believe, the key to getting this resolved, will we have the PAYGO budget enforcement provision as part of the budget. Quite frankly, it appears very possible that without embracing some kind of bipartisan step toward budget discipline along the pay-as-you-go requirement, this House, this Congress, will not be able to pass a budget. Obviously, with the President, the Senate and the House in one-party control, one would not expect that that would be the result, but that is the result without some movement toward budget discipline.
Why has budget discipline become so central to the budget debate? I have got some charts that illustrate in very painful fashion what has happened to the Federal budget during the last 3\1/2\ years. This chart captures the skyrocketing deficit from years 2002 to projected end of year 2004. What we see is a budget spinning entirely out of control, an absolute hemorrhage of red ink with Congress now spending more than $1 billion a day more than it takes in. This all accumulates in the national debt, a soaring burden for our country and the next generation.
If that chart captured the whole story, it would be very dangerous and frightening. I hate to tell you this, but the story is actually worse than that. Because of budget rules, the full exploding nature of the tax cuts which throw our budget even more radically out of budget occurs after the measurement period of this budget debate. This chart captures that. The budget before us covers the first 5 years. What happens in the next 5 reveals the dirty little secret of their budget plan, skyrocketing red ink, a budget more out of balance than ever before, just at the period of time baby boomers leave the workforce, move into retirement, each one carrying a guarantee from the Federal Government that Social Security will be paid, that Medicare will be paid.
Knowing how many baby boomers there are relative to the rest of the population, the obvious thing for this country to do is pre-position and improve the fiscal condition of this country so that we are ready to take the tremendous hit entitlement spending will bring when baby boomers retire.
My colleagues can see what we are doing: exactly the opposite. It is fiscal lunacy as we borrow in ever-radical fashion just before baby boomers retire. The long-term trend here, assuming the administration budget policies, AMT reform and the ongoing war costs take us to a national debt situation of $14.8 trillion by the year 2014. The debt service cost on that alone is $400 billion, just in interest costs. So this is a very, very serious problem. It is a fiscal catastrophe that has been foisted upon this country. The only thing to do is to begin to deal with it.
This is not the first time the country has had budget problems. It is not the first time we have had people of good will trying to reach across a partisan aisle and come up with some answers. The pay-as-you- go requirement, in fact, that is before the House with this motion was initiated in a budget conference convened by President George Bush, not this President George Bush, his father, George H.W. Bush. They came upon a fairly basic budget enforcement mechanism. In light of not wanting to make the budget situation any worse, they agreed that a pay- as-you-go requirement would apply.
What does that mean? That means if you spend more, you are going to have to find the money to pay for it. You are going to have to either cut spending, or you are going to have to raise revenue. Also on the revenue side, if you cut taxes and reduce the inflow of revenue, you are going to have to deal with it. You are going to have to show at that time where the spending cuts are going to come that offset the revenue loss or what other revenue increases you would have to offset that revenue loss. This was ultimately adopted in a bipartisan vote in 1990. Many believed it was an extraordinarily important contribution to national budget discipline. Chairman Alan Greenspan spoke about the need to get such tools back in the budget process in his testimony to Congress just within recent weeks.
After the 1990 agreement, this thing started to show that it really could work. The budget picture continued to improve. In the budget vote of 1993, the budget votes thereafter, the bipartisan balanced budget agreement of 1997, the pay-as-you-go requirement was affirmed no fewer than two additional times by bipartisan votes of Congress. There is some confusion, I believe, raised by some of the arguments that I have heard coming from majority leadership that those early pay-as-you-go requirements were not applicable to the revenue side. That was misinformation. I have the language of the earlier pay-as-you-go requirements with me, and I am prepared to debate on the floor of this House the applicability of those earlier pay-as-you-go requirements to the motion before us. The motion is the same. And so to my friends in the majority who are inclined to look at this very carefully, thinking about their earlier votes back in 1995 and 1997 in favor of the pay-as- you-go
requirement, I am telling you that you have done this before, and now we need to do it again. We need to do it again worse than ever in light of the budget situation.
That is the motion we have before us. This motion has had two very close votes. When it was offered by the gentleman from California (Mr. Thompson) last spring, it was a tie vote, 209-209. Last week, a similarly very close vote on an identical motion brought by the gentleman from Kansas (Mr. Moore), that one failing 208-215, although we have been informed that some of those voting late in the balloting against this bill were led to believe that the motion before us was different than the pay-as-you-go requirement they had voted for in the 90s.
Let the record be very clear on this. The motion before us on this pay-as-you-go requirement would reinstate the same pay-as-you-go requirement that we had in the 90s that many of my colleagues have voted for before. We have got a situation where we are going to leave our children with this as the legacy, or we are going to have to come to some kind of awakening and recognize it is time for us in a bipartisan way to begin to assault this monster. The way to do it is by reinstating budget discipline.
For that reason, I urge very careful consideration of the motion I have put before us.
Mr. Speaker, I reserve the balance of my time.
Mr. Speaker, I yield myself such time as I consume.
To have the effort to break loose the budget stalemate in conference committee by having our House pass something similar to what the Senate in a bipartisan vote passed is a serious effort. Obviously they are taking it pretty seriously. They have the chairman of the Committee on the Budget on the floor. And rather than rebut the rather painful underlying reality about the Nation slipping into what would almost appear to be an irreversible hemorrhage of red ink, in very bellicose and sarcastic tones, he wants to point at individual votes and accuse other Members of hypocrisy. I guess that is kind of a refuge when they do not have arguments on the issue, let us blow a little smoke, let us have a little fun, let us throw a little political rhetoric around. But this deserves so much more than that.
I would say to my friend from Iowa, it is not ruining printers that concerns me, it is ruining the Nation. And I really do believe that the red ink that we are generating and continuing in escalating fashion as the baby boomers move into retirement is a dire threat to the future of our country. I believe that you have already put us on a path, with you serving in your leadership as position as Committee on the Budget chairman, working with the administration, working with the Senate Budget Committee, to diminish the prospects of our children by so undermining the fiscal strength of our country.
I yield to the gentleman from Iowa.
Mr. Speaker, reclaiming my time, the gentleman has been most selective in the votes he has cited because I want to tell him, as he knows already, but tell my colleagues that I supported a budget that had the tax cuts mentioned and had them fully offset and paid for, bringing the budget to balance by the year 2008. That was the Democrat alternative, and that is what I voted for. And in addition, we have offered specific substitutes to each of the tax cuts he referenced, and those substitute motions which had the paid-for alternative have been voted down.
I believe there is a merit to those particular tax cut proposals, and I believe that the process is best served by moving them forward, moving them forward hopefully to be resolved ultimately in conference committee in a paid-for manner. So that is what is at stake with my votes. But really there is a whole lot broader issue to discuss on the floor right now, and that is not the voting record on two isolated votes, although I do fully offset in other votes that I have cast on those particular subject matters, but much more over the fiscal situation facing this country.
Mr. Speaker, I yield 4 minutes to the gentleman from Virginia (Mr. Moran).
Mr. Speaker, I yield myself such time as I may consume.
Mr. Speaker, I would respond quickly. By omitting the revenue side of the equation in a pay-as-you-go requirement, you literally leave out a critical component of what drives the budget. This might straighten out the gentleman's history here.
Revenues have plunged as a result of the earlier tax cuts, the lowest percentage of GDP since the year 1950. As revenues plunge, you get yourself into deficit.
Can you imagine a family trying to balance their household budget saying, you know, we are going to have to get hold of this. We are going to have to cut spending, cut our family spending. Then, at the same time, saying, but, you know, we are working a little too hard, so I am going to take more vacation. I am only going to work part-time, because the revenue side, we are not going to deal with the revenue side, we are just dealing with the spending side.
That is as much lunacy as what is proposed in terms of dealing only with pay-as-you-go on spending and leaving off consideration of the revenue.
To put it in another way, revenues have plunged very significantly over the past 3 years. Revenue has declined 12 percent. So this business of we are going to cut taxes and get more revenue as the economy grows has not been demonstrated.
There has been one area of growth, one very predictable area of growth; the deficit has grown to the largest level in the history of the country. And if there is a budget deal coming out of the conference committee, it is going to have an increase in borrowing authorization for this country, and we are told it might exceed borrowing authority in the amount of $10 trillion, debt we will pass on to our children.
We will have a better way to further explain that.
Mr. Speaker, I yield 4 minutes to the gentleman from Washington (Mr. McDermott).
(Mr. McDERMOTT asked and was given permission to revise and extend his remarks.)
Mr. Speaker, I yield myself such time as I may consume.
Mr. Speaker, that is a very interesting bit of economic history there, but I would put forward a different view. Which economy worked best, the economy of the nineties, when you had pay as you go, or the economy of this decade, so far a very stalling, disappointing economy?
Mr. Speaker, I yield 4 minutes to my friend, the gentleman from Illinois (Mr. Emanuel).
Mr. Speaker, I yield myself such time as required to close and I will speak from the other podium.
I thank my friend from Iowa, the chairman of the Committee on the Budget, for joining in this spirited debate, but to any one of our colleagues watching, there is something that we know for sure and that is that bluster does not cover facts. Energetic presentation of lots and lots of stuff does not mask an economic record reflected in these charts.
This is what has happened to the deficit during the last 2 years, and this is where we are going over the next 10 years.
Now, what we are seeking with this motion is budget enforcement ability to try and level out this deeply alarming trend line on national debt. Pay-as-you-go means that if you spend more, you have got to cut somewhere else; or if you cut taxes, you have got to cut spending and show where you do it; or if you cut taxes, you have got to raise taxes somewhere else. It has all got to work out in a zero-sum game. You cannot continue to make the budget situation worse.
We can get lost in the economics and the numbers, but I think it is helpful to just think of it this way. We pay as you go now, or our kids pay when we go later, because these things are not balancing out. Representations that tax cuts are producing more revenue are not at all borne out. The Federal revenues from individual income taxes in the year 2000 was $1.4 trillion. The 2004 estimate is $765 billion, almost down a quarter.
As you have revenues fall so precipitously, you have had the debt line grow so significantly. We have had some job numbers thrown out. The fact is we are down 1.6 million jobs. This administration is the first administration on track to have a net loss of jobs since Herbert Hoover was President, but those are issues for another day.
Let us just understand that if you like the economy of the 1990s better than the economy we have seen this decade, realize that throughout the 1990s we had pay-as-you-go budget enforcement, which meant we were trying to get a handle on national debt. We have absolutely lost our way when it comes to fiscal sanity, and that is why we have had this explosion of debt, a deficit leading to debt, and we have got to get our hands around it.
So I believe that if this House took the step of instructing conferees to go with what the Senate has passed, and that is a bipartisan vote to embrace this pay-as-you-go requirement, we can once again get on track. This has been the very issue that has received bipartisan agreement in the past, 1990, 1995, 1997, and now it is time in 2004 for us to do it once again.
It is time for us to do this for our children. We put pay-as-you-go in the budget or it is you pay when we go to our children. As a father of an 8- and a 10-year old back home in Bismarck, North Dakota, I know we owe them a good deal better than this, a very unstable fiscal situation just when baby boomers retire and start drawing on Medicare and Social Security. We could turn this around, and passing this motion is the place to do it.
Mr. Speaker, I yield back the balance of my time.
Mr. Speaker, on that I demand the yeas and nays.